Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017

Presented by Vincent Saba

Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries

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Northeast U.S. Commercial Fishery Value

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Importance of Climate Model Resolution

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21

17

13

9

5

Sea

Surf

ace

Tem

pera

ture

o C

NOAA NCEI (10-km)

Low-res. ocean (100-km)

Mid-res. ocean (25-km)

High-res. ocean (10-km)

GFDL CM2.1

GFDL CM2.6 GFDL CM2.5

Observed

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Importance of Climate Model Resolution

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Using GFDL’s CM2.6 for species projections

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Atlantic cod

Kleisner et al. 2017

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Using GFDL’s CM2.6 for species projections

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Kleisner et al. 2017

Distance to port under

continued ocean warming. Does not account for:

• Fishing mortality change.

• Bottom-up forcing • Species interactions.

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Summary

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• GFDL’s CM2.6 is now being widely used for Northeast U.S. fisheries research

• Thermal habitat projections for all major species are on nefsc.noaa.gov

• CM2.6 - Zooplankton distribution shifts

• CM2.6 - Predator/prey interactions

• CM2.6 - Sea turtles