FUTURE WARGAME ADJUDICATION PANEL

CONNECTIONS, FALLACIES, AND POTENTIAL DIRECTIONSPresented by Jon Compton

Booz | Allen | Hamilton

“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about. ”

John von Neumann

PROBLEM

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

A study published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition shows that breastfed infants tested 5.2 IQ points higher than formula fed infants, for a comprehensive study involving 11 different studies and over 7000 children.

“Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” ~Aaron Levenstein

PROBLEM

Forest for the trees, trees for the leaves

One of the major problems faced by the early pyramid builders was the need to move huge quantities of rock. While 80 men can drag a 2.5-ton block of stone on a sled, as depicted in carvings in some later Egyptian tombs, this brute-force method was not very efficient.

“Two quite opposite qualities equally bias our minds - habits and novelty” ~Jean de la Bruyere

“When knowledge is well guarded, it’s easily lost.” ~Anon.

PROBLEM

The dangerous implications of inference

“Insurgencies are by their very nature difficult to understand. However each time an attack is launched and every time an IED explodes we start to know a little more about the structure of an insurgency. If we combine together enough of these attacks we start to build up a mosaic picture of the insurgency. Their actions can start to be defined mathematically and we can work backwards from these signatures to understand the fundamental forces that underlie the insurgency.” ~ Sean Gourley

PROBLEM

The dangerous implications of inference continued

14 key features that define a successful insurgency (or a few choice ones, at any rate) according to Gourley:

Many body: There are many more autonomous insurgent groups operating within conflicts than we had previously thought. For example there are 100+ autonomous groups operating in Iraq (as of 2006).

Redundancy: If we remove the strongest group from the system another group will rise to replace the previous strongest group

Independent clones: the fundamental structure and dynamics of insurgent groups is largely independent of religious, political, ideological or geographic differences.

PROBLEM Will Mr. Meta-cognition please stand up“We may take it to be the accepted idea that the Mosaic books were not handed down to us for our instruction in scientific knowledge, and that it is our duty to ground our scientific beliefs upon observation and inference, unmixed with considerations of a different order.” ~Asa Gray

“We do not learn by inference and deduction and the application of mathematics to philosophy, but by direct intercourse and sympathy.” ~Richard M. Nixon

“There is no reasoning, no process of inference or comparison; there is no thinking about things, no putting two and two together; there are no ideas - the animal does not think of the box or of the food or of the act he is to perform.” ~Edward Thorndike

“Nothing is more dangerous than an energetic fool.” ~Shimon Naveh

CONNECTIONS

Asking the right question matters more than the answer

All too many see the wargaming process as a method for predicting possible outcomes. This thinking reveals a thought methodology handicap.

Trace backwards:

1. Our quantitative tools predict trends, not the discreet events that drive them

2. These trends, however, are driven especially by unpredicted discreet events

3. We try to address this problem by modifying or combining tools, of which wargaming is one

4. Go backwards even further: Are we asking the right question?

“A self-fulfilling prophecy is an assumption or prediction that, purely as a result of having been made, cause the expected or predicted event to occur and thus confirms its own 'accuracy.'” ~Paul Watzlawick

CONNECTIONS

Tractable and intractable

Faith in the one-to-one map: The belief that the closer a model gets to reality, ostensibly through the inclusion of as many governing variables and interactions as possible, the more accurate the predictions will be.

Depends upon:

Classical determinism.

“Everything in nature is the result of fixed laws.” ~Charles Darwin

“Everything in our life is chance, from our genesis out of the encounter of spermatozoon and egg onward.” ~Sigmund Freud

CONNECTIONS

It’s the data, stupid

How good is the data? Any data?

• Is it collected properly?

• Is it biased?

• Is it maintained by an incompetent?

• Does it exist?

• Is the proxy really a proxy?

• IS IT COMPLETE?

“The goal is to transform data into information, and information into insight” ~Carly Fiorina

“Don't be buffaloed by experts and elites. Experts often possess more data than judgment. Elites can become so inbred that they produce hemophiliacs who bleed to death as soon as they are nicked by the real world.” ~ Colin Powell

“It’s all crap, but it’s the crap that we have.” ~Jon Compton

“Garbage in, garbage out.” ~TX Hammes

CONNECTIONS

No, it’s the theory, stupid

Theory is constructed out of a governing set of assumptions.

• Individual bias?

• Institutional bias?

• Cultural bias?

• BIAS BIAS BIAS….

“In fact, one thing that I have noticed . . . is that all of these conspiracy theories depend on the perpetrators being endlessly clever. I think you'll find the facts also work if you assume everyone is endlessly stupid.” ~ Unknown

“If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts.” ~ Albert Einstein

“It's all very well in practice, but it will never work in theory.” ~French Proverb

“An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory.” ~Friedrich Engels

CONNECTIONS

No, it’s the theory, stupid

CONNECTIONS

The beauty of the rationality assumption (a tired tale indeed)

“In believing too much in rationality, our contemporaries have lost something.” ~ Krzysztof Kieslowski

“… rationality of thought imposes a limit on a person's concept of his relation to the cosmos.” ~John Nash

“Man is a rational animal who always loses his temper when he is called upon to act in accordance with the dictates of reason.” ~Oscar Wilde

“Insanity - a perfectly rational adjustment to an insane world.” ~R.D. Laing

“I am beyond logic and rationality.” ~Imelda Marcos

Rationality Assumption: This is the assumption that persons act as if they are rational. This means that they would not intentionally make decisions that would leave them worse off.

<smirk>

How useful is this assumption? Well, it depends….

CONNECTIONS

The beauty of the rationality assumption (a tired tale indeed)

But what is the real problem?

“A man can believe a considerable deal of rubbish, and yet go about his daily work in a rational and cheerful manner. ” ~Norman Douglas

Do you play chess?

CASES

Do you know this man?

CASES

How about this one?

CASES

How about these two?

CASES

Know him?

CASES

Or her?

Okay, this one is cheating… Hiroko Nagata

PROBLEMS > CONNECTIONS > CASES > WHAT NOW?

What are the problems with our common assumptions?

The seven problems identified by Max Abrahms

1. Terrorism fails to achieve the stated goal almost all of the time

2. Terrorism is almost never used as a last resort

3. Terrorist organizations almost always reject compromises despite significant policy concessions

4. Political goals of terror organizations are, without exception, protean

5. Terrorist attacks are usually anonymous

6. Competing terror groups with identical or highly similar goals generally prefer to attack each other than any other target

7. Terror groups seldom disband despite the consistent failure of the tactic to actually accomplish their objectives

“Everybody's worried about stopping terrorism. Well, there's a really easy way: stop participating in it.” ~Noam Chomsky

“Noam Chomsky is a dumbass” ~Sebastian Synclair

PROBLEMS > CONNECTIONS > CASES > WHAT NOW?

What are the commonalities?

“I don't worry about terrorism. I was married for two years.” ~Sam Kinison

What are the common factors in these groups?

Identity Entrepreneur

Each has a founding member with charismatic appeal, a perception of injustice, and a…

Commitment to Violence

Each group has a core of people who hold a commitment to violence that shapes the goals and philosophy of the group (not the other way around). This core attracts people who seek…

Social Affiliation and Identification

The bulk of these groups are filled out with people who lack the strong commitment to violence, but self identify with the lifestyle, philosophy, social atmosphere, and so forth, of the group.

PROBLEMS > CONNECTIONS > CASES > WHAT NOW?

The one size fits all fallacy

“Historically, terrorism falls in a category different from crimes that concern a criminal court judge.” ~Jurgen Habermas

The factors mentioned on the previous slide are universally common among terrorist groups. But they do not extend to:

Organized Crime

Insurgency

Militias

Civil Wars

…

There is no silver bullet; aggregation breeds inaccuracy.

Non-state violent actors are defined by their acts, not by their intentions.

PROBLEMS > CONNECTIONS > CASES > WHAT NOW?

Tools (bet you don’t know who this is)

PROBLEMS > CONNECTIONS > CASES > WHAT NOW?

Tools: Group

“My master had power and law on his side; I had a determined will.” ~Harriet Ann Jacobs

Descriptive:

Self Similarity

Power Laws

Case studies based upon outputs, not intentions

Fractal Geometry:

See Example Prisoner’s Dilemma Game with tit-for-tat strategy

Important Characteristics and Take Aways:

Equilibrium states exist (power laws)

Networks are bounded and constrained (self similarity)

But remember: DESCRIPTIVE DESCRIPTIVE DESCRIPTIVE

PROBLEMS > CONNECTIONS > CASES > WHAT NOW?

Tools: Individual

“Man is the only animal for whom his own existence is a problem which he has to solve” ~Erich Fromm

Psychological

Charismatic

Well delimited Identity

Strong perception of injustice

Depression Study

Depression linked to problem solving portion of brain

Excessive problem obsessions linked to depressive feelings

Decisions/Actions relieve depression feelings

Cycle works in both directionsThe bright side of being blue: depression as an adaptation for analyzing complex problems, Andrews and Thomson

But remember: DESCRIPTIVE DESCRIPTIVE DESCRIPTIVE

PROBLEMS > CONNECTIONS > CASES > WHAT NOW?

Tools: How do we crack that nut?

“Our limitations and success will be based, most often, on your own expectations for ourselves. What the mind dwells upon, the body acts upon.” ~Denis Waitley

1. Ruthlessly track and find our own vulnerabilities

2. Catalog, don’t predict

3. Requires:

1. Discover Identity Entrepreneur as early as possible

2. Ascertain network structure

3. Identify strategies that

1. Attack IE

2. Disrupt congruence of network

3. Shape environment

PROBLEMS > CONNECTIONS > CASES > WHAT NOW?

Tools: Wargaming?

“If some unemployed punk in New Jersey, can get a cassette to make love to Elle McPherson for $19.95, this virtual reality stuff is going to make crack look like Sanka.” ~Dennis Miller

Catalog, don’t predict means:

1. Large n wargames

2. Virtual world or virtual reality

3. Environmental, self adjudication

4. Catalog strong outliers (learn vulnerabilities, ours and theirs)

Second Life with guns!

1. Real world analogs

2. Real world consequences

3. Put skin in the game!

Thank you for your attention.

Comments welcome.

“Quotation is a serviceable substitute for wit.” ~Oscar Wilde