Future Technology Trends For the
Ultra Broadband Era
Mark Winther, Group VP Telecom
Broadband, Speed, Traffic Flows, Experience
OTT engagement model
Technology Futures Access, Video, Optronics, Virtualization
Future broadband challenges
Broadband Connections Pass 1 billion in 2016
WW Fixed Broadband Connections (millions) Drivers Multi-screen
Enablers Video futures
Photonic chip futures
882 950 1015 1074
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: IDC Worldwide Telecom Services Database, July 2013.
Speed Matters 100 Mb/s is the New 10 Mbp/s
Speed upgrades at no extra charge.
Synchronous services that match upload speeds with download speeds at no extra charge.
Solid ARPU driven by uptake of multi-play and TV services
From 3 Mb
To 20 Mb
Changing Traffic Patterns
Cloud & social are pushing more content UP the network
All Internet sharing starts with uploading
Smarter home gateways drive more content being moved around
Enhanced Media Servers
Multiple tuners, terabytes of storage
What Happens When 50B Machines Connect
Dramatically broad range of traffic patterns Challenge traffic engineering and management
Demand new service definitions (SLAs)
Smart Watch Chatty, Low bandwidth
Smart Train Session-based
Ultra BB is More than a Build & Sales
Property Management Network Marketing Distribution Product
Create fiber-ready buildings & neighbor-hoods
Relations with property mngrs
Incorporate intelligence into build planning
Lower cost equipment
Target tenants & property owners
Build brand equity for fiber ready areas
Create fiber brand elements for SMB
New seller tools to target neighbor-hoods & buildings
Service delivery links for process improvement
Competitive priced E2E fiber services
Lower cost/lower SLA services
Consumer-like experience for SMB.
It is a transformation of the way to build and sell
Better segmentation continuum of needs
How do you know when Facebook goes down? Fundamental flaw in managing customer experience.
How do you monitor to know you have a problem, and how do you respond when a customer does have a problem?
Digital first experience Self-service portals for subscriber self-monitoring
Embracing sophisticated users
Passive User Non-use of video streaming services and/or downloads
Power User Frequent use of video streaming
services and/or downloads
OTT Engagement Model
Fat Dumb Pipe
Standard business model owning the customer, providing the infrastructure. Little value-added beyond speed. Demand grows faster than revenue.
Evolved brokerage model -- Add value to subscriber and to OTT provider. Monetization through: policy control, billing, subscriber and network intelligence, CDNs, APIs.
OTT Participation Model
Open platform for service mash-up
Access Technologies Trends
FTTH speeds are impressive, but expensive Objectives
Prolong the copper lifecycle Integration of copper, fiber, wireless Optimize DSL and copper in rural areas
Targeted fiber rollout Transition from DSL to fiber in densely populated
fiber-hoods FTTdp and FTTB can be 30% cheaper than FTTH
Wireless local loop Economically extend the reach
FTTC/N Street Cabinet
Emergence of Mixed Economies, Multi-Access Network
Wireless Local Loop CO
Video Futures A Better Visual Experience Data will increase by 65x in next few years
4K UHDTV = 4 times the bandwidth of a HD signal
8K UHDTV = 16 times the bandwidth of a HD signal
4K HD SD
4K/8K will be the first format that is Internet only. -Reed Hastings, Netflix
Photonic Chip Futures - Towards 1 Tb/s
Electrical Elements Photonic Elements..
Multiple photonic components integrated onto a single chip, similar to the electronic integrated circuit.
Benefits of photonic integration are higher density, lower power, less space and lower TCO.
Improves network efficiency as we evolve to higher bit rates.
Network Futures - Virtualization
Failover and resiliency in software.
Quick failure service designs.
Role and extent of orchestration,
APIs are difficult to use.
Operators are committed
AT&T Domain 2.0
It is not about 100% or nothing
The Programmable Network increases agility, reduces costs and speeds innovation applications.
Future Broadband Challenges
Vastly diverse use cases Videos and social feeds = speed, Applications & devices = reliability.
Demand more atomic tools Monitoring, Understanding bandwidth usage, Smart congestion management, Software-defined networks, Big data.