Future Strategic leaders' Congress M Iitime Hashpornts: Aus ralia's Critic I Vuln r brhti

22-24 May 2015

DELEGATE'S HANDBOOK

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rh r { rr rnenr I [ t'- f1(t' .04.1 r l't (I I,. I,ll II I Department of Defence

Securitys Future Strategic Leaders '

_11 of prorno ung regional sta bility and urage innovative tlunki ng ab out our­

to foste r- t ile next generat ion of saders' Program was established by eet the second core goal. Previous se two goals to become the prem ier e valuable learning expenences .

sett ing. rnvite a number of security unger practrt ioners and researchers

a tOP iCthat is Important for au. We and stimul atin g. Given the range of tile tOPICS at hand we emphasise til e making it memorable fo r all.

ateful to OU t guest presen ters and me from thei r- exceptio nal ly busy rth us, We also thank our spo nsors.

nd the Noet ic Group for their

forward to work ing with you ove r the

Congress Program

Friday 22May 2015 1700-1800 Arrival, registration and unpack London Shed 1800-1830 Pre-dinnerdrinks Outside the Mess 1830-1 930 Dinner Mess

1930-1940 Welcome andweekend London Shed MrPeter Nicholson AOI Mr overview Drew McKinnieI Mr Brett

Biddington AM, Institute For Regional Security

1940-2035 Session #1 : Scene setting London Shed Mr Lee Cordner AM. University of Adelaide

2035-2135 London ShedKeynote Address CORE Andrew Gough RANR, Representing Chief of Navy Director General Navy Capability and Q&A Plans and Engagement

2135- Fireside drinks and discussions

Saturday 23 May 2015 0730-0830 Breakfast Mess 0830-0930 Session #2: Why are SLoG London Shed Mr Peter Malpas, Braemar ACM

critical to our national Shipbroking security and prosperity? Dr Sanu Kainikara, Air Power

Development Centre 0930-0950 Session #2Q&A London Shed 0950-1 010 Morn ing Tea Mess 1010-11 10 Session #3 : What are the London Shed RADM (Rtd) Simon Cullen AM ,

threats to Australia's CSC SLoG? Dr Sanu Kainikara, Air Power

Development Centre 1110-1125 Session #3Q&A 1125·1130 Coffee break (br- ing back to London shed) 11 30-1230 Syndicate Session #1 London Shed and break-out rooms 1230-1330 Lunch Mess 1330-1430 Session #4. Global and London Shed Mr Ian Biggs, Assistan t

Regional: Australia. South Secretary, Departmen t of East Asia and SLoe Foreign Affairs and Trade

BRIG Michael Mahy, Military Strategy, Department of Defence

1430-1500 Session #4Q&A 1500-1700 Aftern oon tea then fre e time 1700-1800 Syndicate session #2 London Shed

Congress Program

Saturday 23May 2015 cant 1800-1900 Dinner Mess 1900-1945 Session #6: Best practices, London Shed Dr Jennifer Moroney, RAND

challenges and lessons Australia from international partnering in the Asia-Pacific region and Q&A

1945-­ Conversations in the breezeway London Shed area

Sunday 24Mal 2015 0730-0830 Breakfast Mess 0830-0930 Key Note Address an d

Q&A

Tea I Coffee break

London Shed Mr Michael Pezzullo, Secretary, Department Immigration and Border Protection

0930-0935 0935-1 030

1030-1100

Session #7: What is the future of Australia's maritime security and SLo C through our region? and Q&A Momin.9. Tea

(bring back to London Shed

Mess

London shed) Prof Carl Thayer, University of New South Wales, AD FA

1100-1130 Syndicate session 2 cont I Panel Q&A

London Shed

11 30-1150 Congress Wrap-up London Shed 11 50-1300 Lunch Mess

Pack up & depart

Please note ti lls program was current ill lime of printi ng - Ftittev 151'\lla)' 2015

Speakersand IFRS Directors

Mr Brett Biddington AM Director. Inst itute For Regional Seq

Brett Biefdington is the founder of a specialises in space and cyber 5

nat ional ea member Envir onme Treasurer , Security w addresses that Austral

He is the II Associat ion co111mittee Australia' scrence. t (STEM)ecu

Between 2 Systems' global space team.

In 2002 Brett left the Royal Austral: 23 years of service. He was an I

moving into capability developme control. intelligence. surveillance. projects including the Jindalce 0 and unclassified space uuuauves.

He is an Adjunct Professor In the University in Perth. Western Austral'

In June 2012 tle was aornnteo as a services to the Australian space s

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Professor Carl Thayer Conduct of the Congress Professor Emeritus. University of New South Wales (UNSW) The Congress will IJe conclucted as Aust ralian Defence Force Academy (ADFA) plenary and syndicate discussrons.

The program will be broken into a Carlyle A. Thayer is Professor Emeritus at Til e University of New so utn Wales

part icipants to work closely With .1(UNSW) at the Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA). Canberra. He was educated at Brown University and holds an M.A. degree in Southeast ASian Studies f rom Yale and a PllD in Internat ional Relat ions f rom Til e Australian National University. Thayer jorned t il e UNSW in 19 79 and taught fi rst in The Faculty of Military Studies at the The Royal Mil itary College-Duntroon (19 79-8 5) before tra nsferring to UNSW@ADFA. He was given 'leave In ti le nat ional interest' to take up t il e positi on of Deputy Chair of the Depart ment of Regional Studies

t the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS). U.S. Pacif ic Command. Hawaii (1999-02 ). On return to Aust ralia he was secondecl to Deakin University and served as On-Site Academic Co­oroinator at Westo n c reek for the Defence and Strategic Stu dies Course. the senior course. at the

Centre for Defence and Strateg ic Stud ies (CDSS) at the Austra lian Defence College (2002-04 ). He later oirecteo Regional Security Studies at th e Aust ralian Command and Staff College (2006-07 and 2010).

Professor Thayer was the C, V. Starr Distmguished Visiting Professor at th e School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University In w ashington (2005) and til e Inaugural Frances M. and Stephen F. Fuller Dist inguished Visit ing Professor at tile Center for International Studies . Ohio unlversity (2008) . He is also director of Thayer Consultancy. a sma ll business registered in Australia In 200 2 that provides polit ica l analysis of current regional security issues and othe r research support to selected clients. Thayer is writes a regular column on Soutlleast Asia defence and security colum nist for The Diplomat.

Professor Thayer is til e author of over 500 publicauons includrng: so utneast Asia: Patterns of Security Cooperat ion . ASPI St rategy Report. Canberra: Aust ralian Strategic Poticy Instit ute. 2010.

security leaders In a relaxed enWOG th e weekend include:

• A ser ies of presentat ions focus' facing Australia.

• Syndicate sessions - small g industry leaders to discuss a s

• Informal discussions and -fire,

We reques t you be at the approona that the agenda and discussion can

Discussions off-the-record

The Insti tu te For Regional Security I 111 a t rusted environment; so all dlsc( be st rictly off-t he-record and under

DressCode

The dress code for the Congress Will

In Confidence

Til e content of th is Delegate Han correspondence and information Security remain In-Confidence and

Security

Given the array of dignitaries attend, organisers by carrying photographu of til e Congress and by wearing yo ~

room.

Mobile Phone Coverage

Mobile phone coverage IS 1I111ite campus. IFRS staff can point you to you can get a signal (depending on

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What is the Future of Australia’s

Maritime Security and SLOC

Through Our Region?

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer

Presentation to Future Strategic Leaders

Program, Kioloa, NSW May 24, 2015

Australia’s Maritime Security

Increase in Merchant Shipping

2003-13

Introduction

• Australia has vital national interests:

–Respect for international law and norms

– Freedom of navigation

–Unimpeded trade

– Freedom of over flight in international

airspace above the maritime domain

–Rules-based regional order – peaceful

settlement of disputes

Maritime Security

• Sea Lines of Communication (SLORC)

– Commercial ships and vessels

– Military ships and vessels

• Economic interdependence

– Destabilising state actions or armed conflicts are

dampened and unlikely

– But there are still risks

Challenges

• China’s rise and military modernisation

– Security dilemma

• Arms build up by regional states

– Military technology and weapons systems

– Growth of submarine fleets

– Cruise missiles

• Hot spots

– East China Sea, Taiwan, South China Sea

Extended Range of

China’s Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

First and Second Island Chains

• China’s military

modernisation

• Surface

combatants

• Aircraft

carrier(s)

• Conventional

and nuclear

submarines

• Ballistic

missiles

• Cruise missiles

Underwater

sensors

(fixed and

mobile) to

detect

submarine

movements

Yulin Naval

Base, Hainan

Island

Mischief Reef

Fiery Cross Reef

Johnson South Reef

Future Strategic Environment

• Australia’s security environment will be

more challenging over the next 20 years

• Erosion of Australia’s historical military

capability and technological advantages

• Strait line extrapolations of current

trends risky

• What are the plausible alternatives?

Future Strategic Environment

• Strategic uncertainty

• Broader range of possible strategic futures

• Wild cards

– Instability in China and/or Indonesia

– Deterioration of China-US relations

– Eruption of armed conflict

– US abandonment

– Climate change

Southeast Asia: Climate stress,

recent conflict, global trade routes

and choke points

What is the Future of Australia’s

Maritime Security and SLOC

Through Our Region?

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer

Presentation to Future Strategic Leaders Program, Kioloa, NSW May 24, 2015