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Photovoltaics Centre of Excellence - supported by the Australian Research Council
Future of Solar EnergyFuture of Solar EnergygygyMartin A. GreenMartin A. Green
University of New South Wales, SydneyUniversity of New South Wales, Sydney
Photovoltaics (PV)Photovoltaics (PV)
Solar water heatingSolar water heating
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW Concentrating Solar PowerConcentrating Solar Power
8Solar boomSolar boom
6W
.
Source: Photon International
4
6
city
, GW
2
4
Cap
ac
BulkBulk
2
New
000
002
04 6 8
0 ThinThin--filmfilm
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
20 20 200
200
200 8
20032003Transition scenarioTransition scenario
1600
a .
GeothermalSolar Heat +
1200
ergy
, EJ/
a Solar Heat +Solar PowerWind
800
mar
y En
e WindBiomass
400
orld
Prim Hydro
Nuclear
0
000
010
020
030
040
050
090 00
Wo
GasCoal
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21
Oil
20032003Transition scenarioTransition scenario
1600
a .
GeothermalSolar Heat +
1200
ergy
, EJ/
a Solar Heat +Solar PowerWind
800
mar
y En
e WindBiomass
400
orld
Prim Hydro
Nuclear0.02% solar0.02% solar
0
000
010
020
030
040
050
090 00
Wo
GasCoal
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21
Oil
27
Annual capacity increaseAnnual capacity increase27
W
.
Wind18
city
, GW
9
w C
apac
0 1
Nuclear0New
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Photovoltaics
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW2
Sources: Photon International, IAEA, GWEASources: Photon International, IAEA, GWEA
“Submerged” progress“Submerged” progress
10000
100000. 25%25%
Wind1000
10000
y, G
W
25% 25% World’s World’s energyenergy
100
1000
capa
city
1% World’s 1% World’s electricityelectricity
PV10
100
nsta
lled
WBGU Scenario
1% milestone
1
10In 1% milestone
Actual Wind
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW12000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
S l h tiSolar heating
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWSource: Solahart / ESTIFSource: Solahart / ESTIF
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) 1
Power towerPower towerParabolic troughParabolic trough
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) 2
Stirling engineStirling engine Photovoltaic receiverPhotovoltaic receiver
Solar Systems, VictoriaSolar Systems, Victoria
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Kramer Junction USA 354MW
Oil storage, gas boosting (25%)Oil storage, gas boosting (25%)
Commenced 1989, 10.6% solar to electricityCommenced 1989, 10.6% solar to electricity
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWCapex $2954/kWe, O&M 4.62c/kWhCapex $2954/kWe, O&M 4.62c/kWh
Issues
PositivesPositives
I t t ith f ilI t t ith f il f l l tf l l t. Integrate with fossil. Integrate with fossil--fuel plantfuel plant
. Heat storage relatively cheap?. Heat storage relatively cheap?
. Lower capital cost than standard . Lower capital cost than standard PV (in past)PV (in past)
NegativesNegatives
. Compete on wholesale market . Compete on wholesale market against wind & fossilagainst wind & fossil--fuelsfuels
. Clear sky, water needed. Clear sky, water needed
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Ultimate costs versus PV
PV panels as cheap as optical elements of concentrators?PV panels as cheap as optical elements of concentrators?
(then don’t need rest of system, optical accuracy etc.)(then don’t need rest of system, optical accuracy etc.)( y p y )( y p y )
. .
Troughs: $250/mTroughs: $250/m22
Mirrors: $40/mMirrors: $40/m22Heliostats: $125Heliostats: $125--$159/m$159/m22
Mirrors: $13/mMirrors: $13/m22 ??
ThinThin--film PV panels: already film PV panels: already $110/m$110/m22 (First Solar Q4 2006)(First Solar Q4 2006)
22
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWMirrors: $40/mMirrors: $40/m
Eventually $30/mEventually $30/m22 ??
Photovoltaic ApplicationsPhotovoltaic Applications
ConventionalConventionalGenerators PV Central Station
PV Mi i Utilit PV ResidentialPV Mini-UtilityDiesel
ThermaloverloadPV RAPS
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Grid parity: Europe
Small Small ftft
Larger groundLarger ground--t dt drooftoprooftop mountedmounted
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Grid parity: Europe
Small Small ftft
Larger groundLarger ground--t dt drooftoprooftop mountedmounted
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Grid parity: Europe
Small Small ftft
Larger groundLarger ground--t dt drooftoprooftop mountedmounted
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Grid parity: Europe
Small Small ftft
Larger groundLarger ground--t dt drooftoprooftop mountedmounted
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Germany: feedGermany: feed--in tariff resultsin tariff resultsOther levies taxes
25
German Household Electricity PricesOther levies, taxesRenewable Energy LawDistributionGeneration
10152025
ents
/kW
h
05
10
Euro
ce
1998 2007
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
First generation cellsFirst generation cells
150-200 m2 3 m m
More Si than microelectronicsMore Si than microelectronics2-3 m m
IssuesIssues
thinner cellsthinner cells. thinner cells. thinner cells
. simpler Si purification. simpler Si purification
n ++
p p fp p f
. higher conversion efficiency. higher conversion efficiencyp-type
p +
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW metal
Second Generation: thinSecond Generation: thin--filmfilm
ThinThin--film Technologiesfilm Technologies
SiliSili. . SiliconSilicon. amorphous. amorphous. microcrystalline. microcrystallineyy. polycrystalline. polycrystalline
ChalcogenideChalcogenide (polycrystalline)(polycrystalline)AdvantagesAdvantages
low materials costlow materials cost
. . ChalcogenideChalcogenide (polycrystalline)(polycrystalline). CIS, CIGS [Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S). CIS, CIGS [Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)22]]. CdTe. CdTe. low materials cost. low materials cost
. large manufacturing unit. large manufacturing unit
. fully integrated modules. fully integrated modulesth ti d ?th ti d ?
. . Dye sensitisedDye sensitised, , OrganicsOrganics
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW. aesthetics, ruggedness?. aesthetics, ruggedness?
Other Advanced ThinOther Advanced Thin--Films:Films:DyeDye--sensitised; Organicsensitised; Organicyy ; g; g
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Efficiency/ costEfficiency/ cost
100 US$0.50/WUS$0.10/W US$0.20/W
80Thermodynamiclimit
,%
60US$1.00/W
40cien
cy,
20US$3 50/W
Present limit40
I
Effic
II0 100 200 300 400 500
US$3.50/WI
BulkBulk
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWCost, US$/m2
BulkBulk
Efficiency/ costEfficiency/ cost
100 US$0.50/WUS$0.10/W US$0.20/W
80Thermodynamiclimit
,%
60US$1.00/W
40cien
cy,
20US$3 50/W
Present limit40
I
Effic
ThinThin--filmfilmII
0 100 200 300 400 500
US$3.50/WI
BulkBulk
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW Includes dye, organicIncludes dye, organicCost, US$/m2
BulkBulk
Thermodynamic efficiency limitsThermodynamic efficiency limits
Es
TA
W
Tc
sSs
E
W
QEc
Sc
S = Q/TA
SG>0
≤ (1-TAS /E ) = 93 3% (direct) = 73 7% (global)
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW ≤ (1-TASs/Es) = 93.3% (direct) = 73.7% (global)
The 3 generationsThe 3 generations
?100 US$0.50/WUS$0.10/W US$0.20/W
Thermodynamic? 80
60
Thermodynamiclimit
cy,%
60US$1.00/W
Present limitIII40ficie
nc
. high. high--efficiencyefficiencythinthin filmfilm
II20
US$3.50/W
Present limitIII
I
Eff. thin. thin--filmfilm
. abundant. abundant
. non. non--toxictoxicII
0 100 200 300 400 5002
. durable. durable
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWCost, US$/m2
Third generation optionsThird generation options
100%
74%68%
circulators
tandem (n )hot carrier68%
54%49%
58%
hot carrier
impurity PV & band up converterstandem (n = 3)thermal, thermoPV, thermionicstandem (n = 6)
44%39%31%
impurity PV & band, up-convertersimpact ionisationtandem (n = 2)down-converterssingle cell
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW0%
Third generation optionsThird generation options
100%
74%68%
circulators
tandem (n )hot carrier68%
54%49%
58%
hot carrier
impurity PV & band up converterstandem (n = 3)thermal, thermoPV, thermionicstandem (n = 6)
44%39%31%
impurity PV & band, up-convertersimpact ionisationtandem (n = 2)down-converterssingle cell
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW0%
EEg g control control -- photoluminescencephotoluminescence
Normalised PL Spectra (2-5nm dots; 300K)(2-5nm dots; 300K)
5nm (270s)4nm (240s)4nm (240s)3nm (180s)2nm (120s)
01.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Photon energy, eVPhotovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW 100nm100nm
Photon energy, eV
Si quantum dot tandem cellSi quantum dot tandem cell
Normalised PL Spectra (2-5nm dots; 300K)(2-5nm dots; 300K)
5nm (270s)4nm (240s)4nm (240s)3nm (180s)2nm (120s)
01.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Photon energy, eVPhotovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW 100nm100nm
Photon energy, eV
G. ScaderaG. Scadera
Third generation optionsThird generation options
100%
74%68%
circulators
tandem (n )hot carrier68%
54%49%
58%
hot carrier
impurity PV & band up converterstandem (n = 3)thermal, thermoPV, thermionicstandem (n = 6)
44%39%31%
impurity PV & band, up-convertersimpact ionisationtandem (n = 2)down-converterssingle cell
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW0%
HotHot--carrier cell conceptcarrier cell conceptquantum dot absorber
TTTTaa
Efficiency > 4 cell tandem
hole contactelectron contact
TT stiff 80
60
(%) 1
InN Si
TTcc tunnelingcontact
interface
cold carriers
40
20Effic
ienc
y 2hot carriers
absorber
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWBandgap (eV)
cold carriers
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.00
100nm100nm
SummarySummary
. . need to fix carbon problem at sourceneed to fix carbon problem at sourceid l tid l t ff ti l t i it tiff ti l t i it ti-- provide clean, more costprovide clean, more cost--effective electricity optionseffective electricity options
. . photovoltaics provides a solution providedphotovoltaics provides a solution provided-- volumes increased and costs reduced dramaticallyvolumes increased and costs reduced dramatically
high energy conversion efficiency is the keyhigh energy conversion efficiency is the key. . high energy conversion efficiency is the keyhigh energy conversion efficiency is the key-- to lowest possible longto lowest possible long--term coststerm costs
hi h ffi i thihi h ffi i thi fil t h l i f tfil t h l i f t 20202020. . high efficiency thinhigh efficiency thin--film technologies for postfilm technologies for post--2020 era2020 era-- new nanonew nano--materials provide increased scopematerials provide increased scope
Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW