Future of Ret irement Villages SectorThe ChangesThe ChallengesThe Trends

Mark McCrindleAged & Community Services NSW & ACT

Wednesday 22 October 2014

Change.

Change.

Change.

Change. Change.

Change.

Change. Change.

Change. Change. Change.

Change.

Change. Change.

Change. Change.

Change.

Change. Change.

Change.

Change. Change. Change.

Change.

Change.

Change.

Change.

Change. Change. Change.

Change.

2009: TWEET

2010: APP

2011: CLOUD

2012: HASHTAG

2013: SELFIE

Only occasionally in history do massive

demographic shif tscombine with huge

generat ional t ransit ionsand ongoing

social changeand rapid

technological t rendsso that within the span of a few decades,

society altogether alters .

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS

FASTEST GROWING COUNTY IN THE OECD

1.7%

POPULATION INCREASE

POPULATION INCREASE

PARRAMATTA

1 PATEL

2 LEE

3 SMITH

4 KIM

5 SINGH

6 CHEN

7 WANG

8 LI

9 ZHANG

10 WILLIAMS

19741984

20142014

20542044

INCREASED LONGEVITY

INCREASED LONGEVITY

INCREASED LONGEVITY

85+ POPULATION

85+ POPULATION

85+ POPULATION

85+ POPULATION

GROWING POPULATION

GROWING POPULATION

GROWING POPULATION

AUSSIE RHYMING SLANG

Joe Blake

Captain Cook

Frog and toad

Harold Holt

Barry Crocker

snake

look

road

bolt

shocker

GENERATIONALTRANSITIONS

AUSTRALIA’S GENERATIONS

BUILDERS

BABY BOOMERS

GENERATION X

GENERATION Y

GENERATION Z

WORKFORCE OF 2025

AGEING WORKERS

AGEING WORKERS

AGEING WORKERS

AGEING WORKERS

AGEING WORKERS

AGEING WORKERS

AGEING WORKERS

MASS RETIREMENT

MASS RETIREMENT

GROWING NEED

GROWING NEED

GROWING NEED

MASS RECRUITMENT

MASS RECRUITMENT

MASS RECRUITMENT

“Foshizz my work gig is totes chron- the hours are defs cray cray but yolo.”

“I like my job.”

SOCIALCHANGE

Wellbeing

Age distribution, recent movers

1%2%

6%

17%

21%22%

19%

10%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Under 55years old

55-59 yearsold

60-64 yearsold

65-69 yearsold

70-74 years old 75-79 yearsold

80-84 yearsold

85-89 yearsold

90+ years old

Q. What is your current age?

Decision Drivers

Decision Passivity

Decision Reluctancy

Decision Urgency

Time spent considering move

16%

34%

40%

7%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0 - 3 months 4 - 12 months 1 - 3 years 4 - 6 years 7+ years

Q. Prior to moving in to your village how long had you been thinking of moving from your home?

Recent Movers

Life Event Push Factors: Top 10

Push factors for leaving home

3%

4%

4%

5%

6%

6%

6%

8%

8%

15%

12%

12%

17%

13%

13%

17%

25%

3%

5%

6%

6%

6%

8%

9%

10%

11%

9%

14%

16%

11%

21%

22%

21%

34%

6%

8%

9%

11%

10%

14%

20%

13%

15%

6%

15%

22%

10%

22%

22%

20%

21%

7%

9%

9%

12%

10%

15%

19%

11%

16%

3%

11%

19%

8%

18%

15%

15%

7%

81%

75%

71%

67%

67%

58%

45%

59%

51%

67%

49%

31%

54%

26%

28%

26%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Family / friends moving away from where I lived

Financial reasons - I couldn't afford the family home upkeep

Financial reasons - wanted to release money

Loneliness

My family's concern/pressure

Concern about who would support me in the future

Wanted to spend more time with people like me

Needing to be closer to public transport / shops

Safety concerns in being isolated from neighbours and support

Loss of my spouse

Proximity to medical services

Concern about my future health

My spouse's health

Need for a home specially designed for easier ageing

Freedom from house responsibilities to be able to do other activities (e.g.…

Home was too big to manage

Downsize while physically I still could

Q. How influential were each of the following factors for you leaving your previous home?

Extremely influential Very influential Moderately influential Slightly influential Not at all influential

Overall

Pull factors for choosing particular village

9%

8%

10%

14%

10%

13%

11%

11%

14%

17%

18%

17%

21%

18%

15%

22%

21%

19%

25%

28%

33%

9%

10%

14%

11%

18%

19%

21%

21%

20%

18%

19%

22%

19%

26%

31%

27%

28%

33%

34%

35%

35%

10%

11%

12%

10%

25%

20%

29%

29%

23%

15%

19%

20%

15%

22%

28%

21%

21%

25%

24%

22%

17%

9%

8%

9%

9%

18%

13%

18%

17%

16%

8%

14%

14%

10%

13%

15%

13%

11%

12%

10%

9%

6%

64%

63%

55%

56%

28%

35%

21%

22%

27%

41%

30%

27%

37%

22%

12%

17%

19%

12%

8%

7%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

My family convinced me

The ethos and values of the village operator - e.g. not-for-profit,…

Friend's recommended the village

It is co-located with an aged care facility

The sales presentation and information

Reputation of the operator and brand

Village activities

Sense of community/ neighbourhood

Budget security - the certainty of knowing my weekly costs

It is near my old home and familiar services

Financial independence - I could buy my unit and have money left to…

Care could be delivered on-site

It is near my family

Reputation of the village

Village facilities

Having a village manager to solve problems

Support with house maintenance

Quality and modern design of my village home

Maintenance is onsite

Safe environment & emergency support (e.g. alarm)

I could stay independent

Q. How influential were the following factors for you in choosing this village?

Extremely influential Very influential Moderately influential Slightly influential Not at all influential

Overall

Mobility

Distance moved

23%

21%

18%

7%

7%

7%

5%

5%

6%

0%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26%

0-5 kilometres

6-10 kilometres

11-20 kilometres

21-30 kilometres

31-50 kilometres

51-100 kilometres

100-200 kilometres

200+ kilometres

Interstate

Moved here from overseas

Q. What was the distance you moved from your previous home to your retirement village?

Recent Movers

Moved greater than desired

76%

3%

5%

1%

3%

10%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

No

Yes - to be closer to family

Yes - because there were no villages nearby

Yes - because nearby villages were too expensive

Yes - because nearby villages didn't have the amenities I wanted(non-health related such as community hall, bowling green,…

Yes - because nearby villages didn't meet my health needs

Yes - to be with friends in this village or local area

Q. Did you move a greater distance from your previous home than you wanted to?

Recent Movers

Connectivity

Source of information

10%

0%

2%

3%

2%

12%

9%

13%

10%

18%

26%

41%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Radio advertisements

TV advertisements

Shopping centre display

Billboards

I have been to events in the village

Internet (searched on the internet)

Received a brochure

My children found it on the internet

Newspaper advertisements

I have friends in the village

Word of mouth - friends/others have said good things

I live locally and have known it for some time

Q. How did you hear about this particular village? (Please select as many as apply to you)

Recent Movers

Net Promoter Score

# 1 TELCO

-29

# 1 A IRLINE

-12

# 1 GROCERY

-9

# 1 BANK

8

# 1 INSURANCE

8

Net Promoter Score

NPS = 25

2010 Photo-bombing

2011 Planking

2012 Gangnam Style

2013 Harlem Shake

2014 Ice Bucket Challenge

TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS

IF SOCIAL MEDIA SITES WERE COUNTRIES…

IF SOCIAL MEDIA SITES WERE COUNTRIES…

IF SOCIAL MEDIA SITES WERE COUNTRIES…

IF SOCIAL MEDIA SITES WERE COUNTRIES…

IF SOCIAL MEDIA SITES WERE COUNTRIES…

1. CANDY CRUSH SAGA

WE’RE JUST

A GENERATION AWAY FROM IRRELEVANCE.

WE’RE JUST

A DECADE AWAY FROM IRRELEVANCE.

WE’RE JUST

A FEW YEARS AWAY FROM IRRELEVANCE.

Mark McCrindle