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Future of Strategic Foresight
Presented by: Dr. Michael Jackson Chairman: Shaping
Tomorrow
Achieving persistent strategic agility and resilience
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About us
All rights reserved
Changing environment
Source: Emery 1980
Unstable
Stable
Simple Complex
Changing environments
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Complexity is increasing
• Supply chain threats • Global terrorism • Infrastructure damage • Global pandemics • Financial risk • Fuel crises • Technology growth • Conventional and
asymmetric threats
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Future demand
Increasing demand for systematic anticipation and preparedness from:
" Governments - Military, Crime, Defence, Food, Health, Animal health, Science …
" Commercials - Health, Telecoms, Energy …
" Not-for-profits - Health, Water, Science … A switch from static news gathering to dynamic intelligence reconnaissance and limited to whole system thinking and strategic foresight
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Systematic foresight
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Content profiling
" Filtering Insights and Trends by user profile: e.g. industry, interests, expertise
" Sentiment analysis e.g. fear, excitement
" Narrative capture e.g. ideas
" Latent Semantic Indexing e.g. concept searches
Bias is essential to avoid ‘group think’ but being conscious of bias from the outset reduces error and increases understanding
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Automatic scanning
Stakeholder scanning " News " RSS feeds " Tweets " Facebook " Paper.li " MentionMap Capabilities improving but human input still required
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Modelling, gaming and simulation
Visual dashboards as early warning systems Balanced scorecards Partnership approaches
Structured data analytics r
MMORPG’s e.g. IFTF Warcraft equivalents
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Predictive analytics
Aims: moving from single keyword to real-time multiple meta data searches Scour the web Extract, analyze, rank Make it useful Collaboration Knowledge management Search & discovery Data integration
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New business models
" Extra-ordinary value added " Cloud-based rather than
home grown " Open/closed collaboration " Outsourcing/partnering " Fast action/reaction " Convergence of
innovation, risk and business and competitive intelligence systems
" From subscription to consumption economics!!
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World data/big data
" Rising interest in mixing large data sets (e.g. GDP and happiness) to spot crisis points early
" Massive funding for global intelligence projects
" Data fusion e.g. GapMinder " Forward indicators e.g. Shock Index
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Gaming & Certification
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Web-based education
Free " Electronic guides/books - linked to content
" Webinars " On-line workshops … Revenue " Privacy/Multi-licences " Virtual consultancy/mentoring " Specialist needs " Online degrees …
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Global collaboration
" Increasing need for joined up thinking between governments , academia, NGO’s, commercial organisations.
" Mobile apps
" All channel distribution
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Global solution networks
" Foresight communities " Expert solution providers - Construction, Design, Security …
Free sites | Rapid delivery | Co-creation | Joint research
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Sum of parts: a global futures brain
Describe system
to be studied
Create systems
map
Define: Scope
Identify driving forces
Identify trends in driving forces
Define desired future
Identify policy, plans and
actions
Draw out policy implications
Develop images of alternative
futures
Explore potential for
change
War Disaster
Coup Revolutions
Discovery Inventions
Evaluate
Modified version of original flowchart by Joe Coates, consulting futurist
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Foresight methods
" Integrated tools and content under user/client control
Structured Analytical Techniques for Intelligence Analysis - Heuer & Pherson, 2011, CQ Press
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Questions
" Mike Jackson: [email protected]
" Shaping Tomorrow: www.shapingtomorrow.com
Thanks for listening
