Future of NOAA Technology: Climate and Energy

2008 AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 13, 2008

Alexander E. MacDonald

DAA, NOAA ResearchDirector, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Temperature Projection

Year 2100

Summary

1. Climate projections include a tail of dangerous feedback uncertainty.

2. NOAA and its partners will be asked to define a program to reduce the uncertainty.

3. Carbon free energy will require improved wind and cloud predictions.

There are large amounts of carbon in the Arctic that could be released in a rapidly warming world.

Paul Krugman op ed, New York Times, August 1, 2008:

“Martin Weitzman, a Harvard economist who has been driving much of the recent high-level debate, offers some sobering numbers.

Paul Krugman op ed, New York Times, August 1, 2008:

‘Martin Weitzman, a Harvard economist who has been driving much of the recent high-level debate, offers some sobering numbers.

Surveying a wide range of climate models, he argues that, over all, they suggest about a 5 percent chance that world temperatures will eventually rise by more than 10 degrees Celsius (that is, world temperatures will rise by 18 degrees Fahrenheit).

Paul Krugman op ed, New York Times, August 1, 2008:

“Martin Weitzman, a Harvard economist who has been driving much of the recent high-level debate, offers some sobering numbers.

Surveying a wide range of climate models, he argues that, over all, they suggest about a 5 percent chance that world temperatures will eventually rise by more than 10 degrees Celsius (that is, world temperatures will rise by 18 degrees Fahrenheit).

As Mr. Weitzman points out, that's enough to "effectively destroy planet Earth as we know it." It's sheer irresponsibility not to do whatever we can to eliminate that threat.”

NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory measures the total CO2 in a column.

Highly detailed information on global carbon budgets could come from:

•Satellite integrated columns.

•In Situ profiles from Unmanned Aircraft Systems.

•Advanced assimilation.

Average Annual Wind Power

Questions . . . .

alexander.e.macdonald@noaa.gov