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The Future Agenda Programme
World’s First Global Open Foresight programme
Looking out 10 years at the big issues for 2020
50 workshops in 25 countries with 2,000 people
Engaged with >20,000 people in 147 countries
52 major probable insights on the next decade
Four Certain:es for 2020
By 2020 we will add another 700m people to the planet, most in places least able to accommodate them
Imbalanced Popula;on Growth Certain;es
We will see economic, physical and poli;cal shortages of key materials that will bring about fundamental changes in how we live
Key Resource Constraints Certain;es
We will be connected everywhere -‐ everything that can benefit from a network connec;on will have one
Ubiquitous Data Access Certain;es
The centre of gravity of global wealth shiLs East with decreased influence for the US and Europe
Asian Wealth ShiL Certain;es
Six Clusters of Future Insights
Health
With diabetes consuming 5% of GDP a combina;on of fat taxa;on, pa;ent data mining and personal budgets
will play a role in stabilising the obesity epidemic
Diabesity Health
We are likely to see 2 to 3 major pandemics start in regions with limited public healthcare and rapidly
spread globally and so demand fast response
Global Pandemics Health
Stopping mental degrada;on from Alzheimer’s makes quality ageing more possible by improving cogni;on and slowing the rate of decline
Hal;ng Alzheimer's Health
Wealth
Widening differences in wealth between and within urban and rural communi;es extends the gap between
rich and poor -‐ but they s;ll need each other
Richer Poorer Wealth
Proven systems built on mobile connec;vity and increasingly flexible means of exchange provide a
;pping point in the shiL towards the cashless society
Mobile Money Wealth
The economic rise of Asia and the need for an alterna;ve to the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency produces
a parallel broad-‐basket Asian Currency Unit
Third Global Currency Wealth
Happiness
A wealthier, healthier older genera;on increasingly lead more ac;ve lives including 3rd genera;on careers
and becoming more poli;cally involved
Ac;ve Elderly Happiness
The increasing fragmenta;on of society and looser connec;on between religion and the state sees
more of us turning to God to help define who we are
Choosing God Happiness
Being disconnected in an always connected world leads to virtual cocoons at home and real physical solitude becomes an op;on only for the rich
Switching Off Happiness
Security
Greater informa;on overload moves our focus from simply accessing data to include the source
of the insight to dis;nguish what we trust
Credible Sources Security
Increasing governmental focus on energy security and climate change drives the uptake of large-‐scale
solar as the leading renewable supply
Solar Sunrise Security
Advanced water purifica;on, irriga;on and desalina;on technologies are used to help communi;es to manage the rising supply / demand imbalance
Water Management Security
Locality
Increasing compe;;on between ci;es over-‐rides na;onal priori;es as mayors lead bold ini;a;ves to place their
ci;es at the forefront of the global stage
Mega City States Locality
Increased transparency on food availability and security, land use and eco-‐literacy accelerate mass consump;on
of locally grown and processed foods
Local Foods Locality
Immigra;on is part of economic development strategies and, especially in low fer;lity economies,
na;ons posi;on themselves to a_ract migrants
Migra;on Magnets Locality
Mobility
Led by more tourists and steady growth in cargo transporta;on, Asian avia;on places more orders and becomes the largest air market in the world
Asian Avia;on Mobility
Intelligent UAVs choose their vic;ms themselves as the race for more focused military influence leads
to the prolifera;on of assassina;on tools
Drone Wars Security
China, the pacese_er for change in inter-‐urban transport, is inves;ng over $1 trillion expanding its
rail network to 120,000km by 2020
Chinese Trains Mobility
The acceptance of being tracked by your mobile is accelerated by ;cket-‐less transport systems, increased surveillance
and successful loca;on-‐based services
People Tracking Mobility
As urban migra;on increases, efficient, densely populated ci;es not distributed op;ons are the blueprints for more sustainable places to live
Dense Ci;es Locality
Consumers are incen;vised to use significantly less energy as escala;ng growth in carbon emissions
force u;li;es to change their business models
Less Energy Wealth
Under increasing pressure to improve efficiency freight shipping adopts a range of alterna;ve
policies and power systems
Clean Shipping Mobility
With France and Germany taking the ini;al lead roles, electric cars take off and form up to 10% of the
world’s vehicle fleet by 2020
Electric Mobility Mobility
Renault in par;cular is making bold moves for the future in France, Denmark and Israel in partnership with Be_er Place
Electric Mobility Mobility
Mesh networks and ubiquitous mobile connec;ons deliver automated highways to improve safety,
increase capacity and reduce conges;on
Intelligent Highways Mobility
With truck platoons and urban delivery vehicles at the fore, we will see a steady shiL to driverless transporta;on in
those areas where improved efficiency and safety are key
Automated Vehicles Mobility
Personal pods are gedng a lot of a_en;on with trials scheduled for a number of ci;es across
Europe, Asia and also at Heathrow Airport
Automated Vehicles Mobility
Informed choices, growth, conges;on and regula;on impact the world’s ci;es to drive a shiL to more sustainable efficient transport op;ons
Urban (Im)mobility Mobility
The need to make public transport as flexible as private focuses a_en;on on the last mile between mul;-‐modal
hubs and the home / work des;na;on
Bridging The Last Mile Locality
Rising sustainability impera;ves and increasing cost of ownership shiL the balance from
ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy
Lease Everything Wealth
Pervasive smart meters and ubiquitous tracking services create plagorms for the dynamic pricing of
resources, access and travel to manage demand
Dynamic Pricing Wealth
Key Mobility Thoughts
More people = more freight + more travel
Less energy + more conges:on = more regula:on
> Big steps forward in some loca:ons (but not all)
> New business models on access and pricing
= Some great opportuni;es for innova;on
