The future

…of leisure, travel, tourism, recreational fishing & hunting, and everything discretionary in your life

Socrates said…

!! The quality of your future is based on the quality of your questions

Bellwethers…

!!How do we reward ourselves?

!!How do we nurture ourselves?

Leisure marketing… !! Competes against a wide range of competitive

alternatives to fun and discovery !! Very vulnerable to consumer values shifting !! Discretionary spending highly reactive to

economic changes !! To win leisure dollars in 2009, new languages

of ‘inviting’ must emerge

Today

…what leisure values will your companies face tomorrow?

Growing consumer “vulnerability”

!!What’s happening? !!Why me? !!Really?

We’re all connected

!! Sneezing in China !! Sub-prime fall-out !! Gas prices !! Cost of closet renovations

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac …

!! You thought Freddie and Fannie were wealthy

!!…now they need to sleep on your sofa !!Stated income mortgages !!Bear Stearns !! You’re connected, sorry…

Consumer moods we track

!! Perceptions of volatility !! Feelings of being powerless !! Self-definition changes during

recessionary times

An era of continuous volatility?

“It’s always darkest

before it’s pitch black.”

Volatility

!! It forces new choices in front of your customers, listening for more relevant people listen—a benefit

!! Where are new solutions? !! What management styles need to

change? "! Resilience "! Responsiveness "! Flexibility

Powerless-ness = Cynicism

!!Reliable home valuations? !!Guaranteed financial instruments? !! Politician deceptions? !!Stable oil prices? !!BIG anything? Q. How do you listen for cynicism?

Responses to cynicism

!!Avoidance—drink more !! Pull my own strings

"! How am I responsible? "! What are my options? "! Education please?

Outer defined —> Inner defined

!! I am not my designer labels, my car make, my outside stuff.

!! Entering the post-materialist culture !! “Let’s see how little we can spend.”

Influences on leisure choices

!! Everything does… !!Rapidly !! Fundamentally !!Wide-ranging Q. How do you listen to choice change?

Forward listening

The value of questions rather than answers

It’s easy to recognize a crisis

Crisis —

!! Crisis decisions are often make/break decisions

!! “No response” is not an option !! But your options are limited, and

reactive, determined by what others have done

Before a crisis, a problem?

Crisis —

Problem —

!! Most companies make decisions when an issue has already become a problem

!! But every crisis was first just a problem

Before problems, an opportunity? !! Opportunities lie in early

identification of what will become “problems” if they’re not addressed

!! Exercise: take “a problem” and ask:

!! What were the early warning signs, or weak signals, that this was going to grow bigger in impact? Crisis —

Problem —

Opportunity

The danger of status quo

!! Today’s uncertainties favor organizations with agility, sensitivity and the ability to listen and respond quickly to the marketplace

To paraphrase Shakespeare…

!! The difference between a comedy and a tragedy is…

!! In a comedy, you discover reality in time to do something about it

!! In a tragedy, you don’t

Drivers to question for

!!Directionality—where is this going? !!Momentum—how fast? Urgency?

The consumer identity crisis

Achieve more

Own more

striving centered

bound

The consumer identity crisis

Achieve more

Own more

Spend more

Be more

striving centered

bound

leisured

Leisure trends

Relaxation & entertainment

sophisticated

effort non-effort

basic

Activity & challenge

Social interaction

Personal growth

RE-creation

Profiles of tourism

Big spenders

experiencial

DIY DFY

acquisitional

Stay-at- homes

New indulger

Anti- tourists

Profiles of experiences

Landmarks & itineraries

Stay & experience

Man-made natural

Pass through & acquire

? ?

Leaders listen

Who are your publics?

How do we hear you?

Benefits of forward listening

!! Track external change continuously and further out

!! Look beyond and around the periphery of your market(s)

!! Decide your responses earlier in the S-curve !! Engage your stakeholders in the debate !! Choose better routes forward !! Be able to adjust your thinking as we go !! Avoid, or even use, some of the pitfalls on the

way

Listening techniques

!!Delphi roundtable !! Tech-enabled B2B social network !!Appreciative inquiry !!On-going horizon scanning

To contact me

David Amdal International Director amdal.david@gmail.com

!! www.ShapingTomorrow.com