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Future: How to be prepared for it? Futurist Elina Hiltunen What’s Next Consulting Oy Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www.whatsnext.fi, email: [email protected]

Future: How to be prepared for it?

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Future: How to be prepared for it?. Futurist Elina Hiltunen What’s Next Consulting Oy. Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www.whatsnext.fi, email: [email protected]. Elina, who?. M.Sc in chemical engineering Futurist Ph.D. Student at HSE Lecturer, consultant - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Future:How to be

prepared for it?

Futurist Elina Hiltunen

What’s Next Consulting Oy

Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www.whatsnext.fi, email: [email protected]

Page 2: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Elina, who?

• M.Sc in chemical engineering• Futurist• Ph.D. Student at HSE• Lecturer, consultant• Founder of What’s Next

Consulting Oy• Columnist at Talouselämä,

Wired UK, Talous Sanomat, Jade, Future Takes (US)

• Board member of European Futurists Conference

• Blogger: www.future.vuodatus.net

Page 3: Future: How to be prepared for it?

What did not happen in the

future:

1910 , France: Paleo future blogi

Page 4: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Harpleys Week, 1908

And what happened…

Source: paleofuture blog

Page 5: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Why to think about the future when we cannot predict it?

• Be prepared for various futures (anticipation)

• Innovating the futures and breaking our mental models

• Communicating and discussion about futures with shareholders

Page 6: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Anticipating the futures

Being prepared for

various futures

Page 7: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Some concepts of the future

Fad

Trend

Megatrend

duration

Weak Signals

Wild cards

Page 8: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Megatrenditare big trends that concern a lot of people

Page 9: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Source: http://www.cartoonweb.com/images/globalization/globalization1.gif

Globalization

Page 10: Future: How to be prepared for it?

NetworkingSource: http://www.cartoonweb.com/

Page 11: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Teknological development

Page 12: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Climate change

Page 13: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Increase of the use of social media

Increase of distant working

Increase of use of alternative energy sources

Increase of single households

Increase of use of mobile phones

TRENDs

Page 14: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Wild cards

• Fast changes with huge impacts

Kuvan lähde: http://www.israelnewsagency.com/cherney911terrorism.jpg

Page 15: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Weak signals

• Signals of new emerging issues that can become big trends in the future- or then not

Page 16: Future: How to be prepared for it?

A weak signal test

1. Makes your colleagues to laugh

2. You collagues are opposing it:no way, it will never happen

3. Makes people to wonder

4. No one has heard about it before

5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it anymore (a tabu)

1-5 ticks and it is a weak signal!

Page 17: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Source: Perhe- lehti

Page 18: Future: How to be prepared for it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcKqyn-gUbY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6z2DWXmRkg

Page 19: Future: How to be prepared for it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yd99gyE4jCk

Philips Lumalive

Page 20: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Different kinds of weak signals• Technological weak signals

innovations• Social weak signals

something is done differently, a change in accustomed

Page 21: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Where Do I (as a weak signal enthusiast) find them?

• Surfing in the Internet• Blogs, blogs and blogs• Keeping my eyes and ears open, mobilephone with

camera in the other hand and a notebook in the other

reporting about weak signals

Page 22: Future: How to be prepared for it?

How to use weak signals

Page 23: Future: How to be prepared for it?

TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fi

a tool for organizations for collecting futures information

Page 24: Future: How to be prepared for it?

TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fi

signaalit

Trendi+ erilaiset

tilastolliset Analyysit

skenaariot

Page 25: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Now

Scenarios

Page 26: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Scenarios

Trend

Trend

TrendTrend

Trend

Trend

Megatrend

Megatrend

Megatrend

Page 27: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Testing the strategy

How will the strategy work in different futures

-finding weak points of strategy -thinking of various possibilities for action in the future

Page 28: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Scenarios

Strategy

Page 29: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Innovating the futures

Page 30: Future: How to be prepared for it?

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. ”

”For knowledge is limited to all we now know and

understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know

and understand.”

Page 31: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Breaking the mental models

Tools:-Strategic serendipity-Futures Window

Page 32: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Futures Window

References: VTT, UPM, Nokia, Welness fair 2008, YLE

Page 33: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Strategic Serendipity

Target group theme

A trend

Product/ service

Page 34: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Comunnication and discussion with the

community

Page 35: Future: How to be prepared for it?
Page 36: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Finnair Departure 2093

www.departure2093.com

Page 37: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Futures work of various organizations• Macroscenarios (Shell, Nokia)

• Consumer scenarios (Philips, Sony Ericsson)

• Reports on various topics (Siemens, IBM)

• Futures teasers(Philips Design, VW)

Page 38: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Beware of these in you organization’s futures

work• Believing too much on your own opinions about the future

• Consensus, group think• Being prepared only for one, the most wanted future

• Superficiality, too little resources

Page 39: Future: How to be prepared for it?

Thank You! More information: www.future.vuodatus.net and www.whatsnext.fi