Agriculture Knowledge Learning Documentation and Policy (AKLDP) Project

Future horizons:Pastoralism and climate change in Ethopia?

Ethiopia’s pastoral areas

60% of land area

15 million people

50% of food and income from livestock

Adaptive livelihood – mobility maintains livestock productivity and avoids rangeland degradation

Pastoralism out-performs ranching.

TEV estimated at US$1.5 billion.

Exports US$350 million to Middle East (HoA livestock sales US$1 billion)

Contrasting pastoral narratives: increasing livestock sales v humanitarian crisis linked to climate change

Pastoralism and climate change

Changing weather and climate: IISD (2009) and HRF proposals (2010-12): increasing drought

frequency and unprecedented climate change

What science tells us: Rainfall data from 134 stations over 42 years ‘failed to see

significant changes’ driven by climate change (Cheung et al, 2008)*

Mean temperatures projected to increase by 1.1 - 3.1°C by 2060 Lack of consistency across models regarding changes in rainfall

from +/- 20% according to region and season Consensus around:

weaker belg (spring rains) 2010-2039 and an increase in Oct–Dec rains in the southern rangelands to 2060

increase in total rainfall that falls in ‘heavy’ events, with changes ranging from ‐1 to +18%

(Climate Smart Initiative, 2013)

Drought impact trends

Horn of Africa Drought – 2011250,000 children died in SomaliaCost to Ethiopia US$ 850 millionSignificant increase in drop-outsDrought affects vulnerability

However: Transitioning households not new Cattle losses 1980-1997 were 60% in poor and 25% in middle/ wealthy households (Desta, 1999)*Wealthy households lose more animals but retain a nucleus herd to recover (Coppock, 1994)*. Resilience!Wealthy households move their animals more

Which photo was taken first?

Pastoral livelihood trends

‘Human population growth, drought, inappropriate water development, land appropriation, peri-urban influences and even livestock commercialization have reportedly contributed to an increased pauperization, wealth stratification and cultural alienation of pastoralists’ (Coppock, 1994)*

Moving up or moving out?*

Issa Somali Shinile, Somali Region (Kassahun et al, 2008)* Oral history - 30 yrs before and after the 1974 drought Wealthy – accumulate livestock Medium wealth group - unchanged Below medium - collapse in livestock; transition to poor and very poor Changes in livestock species - in particular decline in cattle and increase in camels and sheep Social and cultural change make return to pastoralism difficult

Growth, destitution and commercialisation*

WealthyLivestock

holdings/person +++++

Number of people +

Medium wealthLivestock

holdings/person +++

Number of people++

Poor Livestock

holdings/person +

Number of people ++++

DestituteLivestock

holdings/person-

Number of people+++

Capacity to respond to increasing

market demand for livestock

Purchasing power

Capacity to access or control

decreasing grazing and water resources

Capacity to withstand drought and rebuild herds

Comm

ercialization

Moving UpPositive feedback loops – increasing assets, increasing influence and capacities

Moving OutNegative feedback loops – decreasing assets, decreasing influence and capacities

Long-term ‘constants’• Rainfall variability and drought• Conflict

Conclusions

Livelihood trends not new and mirrored elsewhere including UK dairy sector

Next generation pastoral policies must strengthen sustainable pastoral systems, not accelerate commercialization; and assist households in transition

Donors must make flexible funding available for innovative drylands resilience work that mitigates drought impact and prepares for climate change

Role of civil society is crucial to strengthen the evidence-base

* Moving Up or Moving Out? Commercialization, growth and destitution, Catley and Aklilu ; In Pastoralism and Development in Africa (2013)

Photo credits: Kelley Lynch/Save the Children US