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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006. Future Fuel Technology Scenario and Roadmapping for Asia-Pacific. Nares Damrongchai and Greg Tegart. APEC Center for Technology Foresight. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Future Fuel Technology Scenario and Roadmapping for Asia-Pacific
Nares Damrongchai and Greg Tegart
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
BackgroundBackground
Typical infrastructure lifetimes, which are a factor in the rate at which new technologies enter the economy
Source: Facts and Trends to 2050 – energy and climate change, WBCSD
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
BackgroundBackground
The Hubbert Peak according to ASPO
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
BackgroundBackground
Different scenarios on oil depletion
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
BackgroundBackground
Changes in our atmosphere are already underway
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
IntroductionIntroductionForesighting Future Fuel Technology – the project
• A project of the APEC Industrial Science and Technology Working Group (ISTWG) in collaboration with the APEC Energy Working Group
• Proposed by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, with co-ownership and strong support from
– National Metal and Materials Technology Center (MTEC), Thailand
– Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), Chinese Taipei
– Bureau of Energy, Chinese Taipei
– Office of National Science Advisor, Canada
– Industry Canada
– National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
IntroductionIntroductionScope and focus
• An APEC-wide foresight project covering the whole Asia-Asia-Pacific regionPacific region
• To examine rapidly emerging technologies for fuel for transportation and stationary energy production
–Hydrogen–biofuels–conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons
• Vision stretching to 2030
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
IntroductionIntroductionThe Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
Project overviewProject overview
Recommendations for APEC
Recommendations for APEC
Krabi Vancouver PingTung Chiangmai
2004 2005 2006
•Core information•Plausible pathways•Technological gaps
Economy-level implementationEconomy-level implementation
Aiming for energy security
•Possible and plausible future eventsgoals
methodology
timeline
outcomes
Scenarios(vision & goals)
Technology roadmaps
(robust options & linkages)
Final symposium
(public consultation)
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
Implementation – Stage 1Implementation – Stage 1
War of resources
War of resources
The 7-km Island
disaster
The 7-km Island
disaster
Back to the future
Back to the future
The six scenarios for 2030Sunny days are here to
stay
Sunny days are here to
stay
East Asian Union – the renewable fuel super
empire
East Asian Union – the renewable fuel super
empire
2030: The new reality
2030: The new reality
Energy securityEnergy securityemerges as the emerges as the
overarching issue overarching issue for APECfor APEC
Web-based survey to gather initial information and provoke interest among experts to participate in the process
Position Papers written and posted on website
Scenario 2030 Workshop 56
experts from 11 economies gathered in Krabi, Thailand during Dec 13-15, 2004 to examine the issues and highlight R&D need, government policies and actions through scenario writing process
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
Implementation – Stage 2Implementation – Stage 2
Technology Roadmaps (TRMs) derived from the Scenario 2030
Workshop to demonstrate pathways
that APEC members can cooperate
for possible fuel development in the
APEC region.
The TRM Workshops were held in:
– Vancouver, Canada in 27-29 April
2005 (57 experts, 10 economies)
– Pingtung, Chinese Taipei in 10-12
August 2005 (48 experts, 11
economies)
Mar
ket P
ull
Technol
ogy p
ush
NowNow FutureFuture
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
Implementation – Stage 2Implementation – Stage 2
The Future Fuel TRM Architecture
• Covers all dimensions of fuel– Trends and Drivers
– Barriers (system/ infrastructure/technology)
– Process and Products
– Resources needed
• Relevance of individual fuel roadmaps with each other – Linkages
– Integrations
Supra-economy &intergovernmental
Mar
ket P
ull
Mar
ket P
ull
Technol
ogy p
ush
Technol
ogy p
ush
Mar
ket P
ull
Mar
ket P
ull
Technol
ogy p
ush
Technol
ogy p
ush
Mar
ket P
ull
Mar
ket P
ull
Technol
ogy p
ush
Technol
ogy p
ush
Hydrogen
biofuels
Unconventionalhydrocarbons
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
Implementation – Stage 2Implementation – Stage 2
The Integrated Future Fuel Roadmap
LIQUID FUELS (conventional oilbitumen and heavy oil)
Electricity AndHeat
2005 2010 2030
Biofuels GTL CG
GAS FUELS
Electricity and Heat from renewable and gas fuels
OIL BIOMASSNGHydrogen
Sta
tion
ary
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
n
2020
LNG
Renewable and Alternate
CoalGasification
Coal bed methaneGas Hydrates
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
Post-foresight continuing engagementPost-foresight continuing engagement
Collaborative projects– Clean coal technology (China)– Flexible fuel car/electric car (USA/Australia)– Fuel processing and reforming technology for practical fuels to hydrogen for
fuel cell application (Thailand, China etc.)– Storage technology e.g. battery (Thailand, C. Taipei)– (Companies’) proprietary technologies could be an issue to overcome– Cellulosic technology (biotechnology) for ethanol (Canada)– Database and Inventory (Australia)– Int’l study on drivers for acceptance of ethanol fuel (Australia)– H2 code and standard, energy efficiency standard– Harmonization of fuel biodiesel specification (Thailand, with EWG)– Implementation and Facilitation Assistance Team (IFAT) within APEC EWG
e.g. on nuclear power– Standardization of fuel related-terminology– Demand forecast, life cycle analysis (USA)– Solar energy TRM (Thailand, Chinese Taipei, etc)– Establish fuel blending strategy (USA)– National-level technology roadmap for biofuels (Thailand, by MTEC)
Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology
Lessons learnedLessons learned
– The importance of some sort of “urgency”– Social infrastructure (the networks)– High-level commitment– Involvement of decision-makers throughout the process– Visioning and goal setting– Integration into broader policy strategy– Clear link to decision makers – Possibilities for iterations should be investigated– Oblication to monitor the implementation and to evaluate
the outcomes, uptake and impacts
APEC Center for Technology ForesightEmail: [email protected]: http://www.apecforesight.org
Key success factors and cautions