Future fact The Big 5 The Social Forces Shaping South Africa

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futurefact

The B

ig 5

The Social Forces Shaping South Africa

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futurefact

Source: The futurefact survey

South Africa is a rapidly changing society and having an in depth understanding of the significant psycho-social, political

and economic trends is critical to any organisation that is planning for the future.

futurefact has been surveying the attitudes, values and beliefs of South Africans and their media consumption since 1998

using questionnaires based on the relevant issues of the time and reference to opinion leaders and experts in various fields.

It is at the nexus of psychographics and media and is a unique source for interrogating the critical drivers for successful

positioning, marketing and communication initiatives.

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The futurefact survey

The 2011 survey:

Fieldwork period: March/April 2011

Sample: 2524 adults aged 15 plus; national probability sample excluding deep rural (communities of fewer than 500 people) representing 20.2 million people.

The 2012 survey has just come out of field and will be available in May 2012.

futurefact is funded by subscriptions to the survey.

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The B

ig 5

Th

e S

oci

al Fo

rces

Sh

ap

ing

Sou

th A

fric

a

4. Social Inclusion

2. Class Mobility

5. Digital World

1. Political Risk & Stability 3.

Sustainability

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FORCE #1: Political Risk & Stability

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Political risk and stability are

critical drivers of FDI and citizens’

confidence in South Africa

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Democratic beliefs

61% 53%

Source: futurefact 2011

Applies strongly or on the whole

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Political attitudes and beliefs: Agree

67% 63% 63%

33%


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Support for ANC

Strong supporter

Wavering supporter

Potential new supporter

Not a supporter

Don't Know

39%

20%

5%

32%

5%

40%

16%

6%

32%

7%

2008 2011

Source: futurefact

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Support for DA

Strong supporter

Wavering supporter

Potential new supporter

Not a supporter

Don't Know

14% 14%

8%

58%

6%

17%

10%8%

58%

8%

2008 2011

Source: futurefact

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Complete confidence in key political figures

Zwelinzima Vavi

Julius Malema

Gill Marcus

Cyril Ramaphosa

Tokyo Sexwale

Helen Zille

Pravin Gordhan

Kgalema Motlanthe

Trevor Manuel

Jacob Zuma

10%

12%

12%

14%

16%

19%

22%

24%

29%

35%


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Corruption in South

Africa

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Corruption: Completely agree/agree

80% 77% 74%61%


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Most municipalities and local councils are corrupt and untrustworthy: Agree

2000 2006 2008 2009

56%

69% 70%76%

Source: futurefact

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To what extent do you believe that it is your personal responsibility to:

Refuse to pay bribes under any circumstances

To some

/ large ex-tent82%

Not my re-

sponsibil-ity

13%

Not sure5%

Prof William Gumede: Graduate School of Public & Development Management, Wits

“If a political leader can get away with wrongdoing, how on earth should one expect the local metro policeman not to take a bribe?”


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Paid a bribe

8% of the population acknowledge that they have paid a bribe in the past 12 months.

This was to either get off a minor offence like a speeding ticket, a major offence like drunken driving, or paid someone to get a job, house or contract.

8% translates to 1,583 million bribes that took place within the past year. (This of course is in all likelihood an underestimate as many respondents would not necessarily have been honest).

However for the sake of argument lets say this is the finite number of bribes and that each bribe averaged R100. That translates to R158 million changing hands for bribes....

Corruption is clearly a multi million rand business, fuelled by SA citizens.

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Quiet corruption

‘Quiet’ corruption occurs when public servants deliberately neglect their duties to provide public services or goods.

‘Quiet corruption’ may not involve an exchange of money, but involves providers of public services such as teachers, nurses or other officials bending the rules for their own private interests.

This includes, for example, public servants not turning up for work when they should.

‘Big-time’ corruption that takes place without consequences invariably encourages ‘quiet’ corruption.

Both types of corruption impact heavily on the quality of life of citizens.

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Cancer of corruption

South Africa slipped down in Transparency International’s 2010 Corruption Perception Index. According to the Index, an international survey of public corruption, South Africa ranked 54 out of 178 countries listed.

Primedia’s Yusuf Abramjee (open letter to the President, October

2011):“With respect, Mr. President, you and

your administration … are creating the perception that you condone

maladministration, corruption and inefficiency”

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Crime in South Africa

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Victim of crime in past 12 months

Victim of theft Victim of violent crime

21%

12%14%

6%

2008 2011

%

Source: futurefact

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Victim of crime in past 12 months

Tota

l victim

of a

ny crim

e

Vict

im o

f the

ft

Vict

im o

f violent

crim

e

Vict

im o

f an

email/

sms sc

am

Vict

im o

f an

ATM sca

m

22%

14%

6% 7%4%


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Of those who were a victim of crime – what percentage reported the crime to the police?

Reported theft to police Reported violent crime to police

71%

85%

63%73%

2008 2011

Source: futurefact

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Crime

Despite decreases in crime rate, fewer people who have been victims of crime reported the incident to the police.

7 out of 10 people believe that it is likely that people in South Africa commit crime as they are not likely to get caught.

Three quarters of the population believe that neighbourhoods should have the right to fence off their communities.

There has also been a decrease in confidence and trust levels for the SAPS.

It may well be that community initiatives are being credited for the decrease in crime rather than the police themselves. I’m afraid & alert all the time in ca...

77%71%

2008 2011

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Who is seriously thinking of leaving South Africa to live or work in another country?

14%

22%

14%

11%

7%

13%12%

11%

16%

7%

12%13%

18%


Those least likely to return are whites, Indians, those in LSM 9-10 and the tertiary educated.

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I feel more confident now about future prospects for South Africa than I did before the first democratic elections in 1994

2004 2008 2011

74%

59%53%

Source: futurefact

Applies strongly or on the whole

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Opportunities and progress: Applies strongly/on the whole

71% 63% 61%


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Your thoughts on where we are:Political risk and stability

EuphoricCautiously optimisticPretty negativeVery depressed

futurefact view: Cautiously optimistic• Despite all the problems we face, the

government has and continues to provide a stable economic environment

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FORCE #2: Class Mobility

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Why measure class mobility ?

Class Mobility is essentially a self classification, based on people’s perceptions of the class they themselves fall into and of the class their parents fell into when they were the same age.

Class mobile people do not see themselves as static but as ‘moving up the ladder’ and their lifestyles and purchasing decisions will mirror their aspirations.

Class MOBILITY is an important tool for self projection.

“What I believe is what I’ll be”

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Changing face of economics and marketing within SA

In the USA it takes on average four generations for a poor American family to reach the income of an AVERAGE family, yet profound change is occurring in the space of in one generation in South Africa.

South Africa is arguably one of the most socially mobile societies in the world. The move from the circumstances of previous generations is substantial, with the result that optimism prevails in regard to what the future could bring – notwithstanding the realities of the economic recession.

Nonetheless the mobility escalator has slowed and it appears that the bulging middle class of 2009 has split into two segments.

There is much confirming evidence in the 2011 survey that the over-committed are now seeing themselves as part of the working class again, while others have managed to entrench themselves in the middle class or above.

This has immense implications for marketing and communications strategies.

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The social class pyramid

Upper middle / upper class3.3m16%

Middle class8m40%

Working/lower class7.9m39%

5% don’t know


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Inter-generational Mobility:Own Class versus parents’ at the same age

Working Class

Middle Class

Upper Middle

Upper Class Don't Know/ Not sure

56%

27%

8%3%

6%

39% 40%

12%

4% 5%

Parents at same age you are nowOwn class


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My standard of education is better than my parents managed to achieve

Yes79%

To some extent11%

No 8%

Don't know2%


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High school or post matric education subjects

Any maths Any computer studies

Any science/ technology subject

Any commercial/ business subject

49%

23%28% 30%

64%

31%

42%45%

71%

37%

50%47%

2008 2009 2011

Source: futurefact

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High school or post matric education subjects

An

y m

aths

An

y co

mpu

ter s

tudies

An

y sc

ienc

e/ te

chno

logy

sub

ject

An

y co

mm

ercial/ b

usines

s su

bjec

t

88%

51%66%

53%

73%

43%53% 50%

70%

35%49% 48%53%

17%32% 34%

15-24 25-34 35-49 50+

Despite reservations about the new curriculum, the youth of today are certainly better equipped than previous generations


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Standard of living in comparison to parents at the same age

Much better Somewhat better

The same Somewhat worse

Much worse

28%

24%

15%14%

15%

Better = 53%

Worse = 29%

4% Don’t know


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Future standard of living of children when they are your age? (Base: Parents)

Much better Somewhat better

The same Somewhat worse

Much worse

36%

20%

13%10% 11%Better = 57%

Worse = 22%

9% Don’t know


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Personal Income South Africa 1980

Source: AMPS

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Source: AMPS

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A slight decrease in black share of top 10% is noted since the global economic slump

Source: AMPS

YEAR 2010

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Relative progression in black and white

households: Microwave (2005)

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Black Households White Households000’s

Source: AMPS

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households: Free standing deep freeze (2008)

'81'84'85'86'88'89'90'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'07'08'09'100

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


Source: AMPS

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households: MNET or DSTV Decoder (2009)

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'01

'03

'05

'07

'09

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


Source: AMPS

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households: Internet connection at home* (2010)

'06 '07 '08 '09 '100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Black Households White Households

*Including dial up, ADSL, wireless broadband, mobile access

000’s

Source: AMPS

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households: Computer in home (2011/12?)

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Source: AMPS

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Source: Before Sunset Blog

Is it the case that ………

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Materialistic aspirations can be a valid route to a harmonious lifestyle...

Out

er-D

irect

ed

Mot

ivat

ed b

y m

ater

ial s

ucce

ss,

over

t st

atus

, app

rova

l , a

hig

h

stan

dard

of liv

ing

and

achi

evem

ent ne

eds

Inner-Directed

Motivated by quality of life,

personal growth and

development, aesthetics,

design.

IntegratedBalance, harmony,

self-actualisation

Need DrivenDriven by need rather than choice

survival, food, drink, shelter, security

SRI (VALS) Double Hierarchy of Needs(Stanford Research Institute)

SRI (VALS)

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I’m usually one of the first people to try new brands I see or hear advertised

I sometimes buy expensive designer clothes for myself because it reflects who I want to be

If a brand does not seem to speak to me, then I will not use it - even if the product or service

meets my needs

I am more likely to buy brands that I see or hear advertised

Brands are important to reflect who I am as a person

It is important to buy the right brands to create the right impression

30%

33%

43%

47%

50%

59%

SA in the Brand Spiral: Agree


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I’m usually one of the first people to try new brands I see or hear advertised

I sometimes buy expensive designer clothes for myself because it reflects who I want to be

If a brand does not seem to speak to me, then I will not use it - even if the product or service meets my needs

I am more likely to buy brands that I see or hear advertised

Brands are important to reflect who I am as a person

It is important to buy the right brands to create the right impression

Working class

Companies should note the power of the working class: Agree


4.3m

3.5m

3.3m

1.9m

1.7m

2.8m

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Your thoughts on how Class Mobility will evolve in the next 10 years or so:

Continue to increase pretty rapidlySlow down substantiallyIt will plateauIt will reverse

futurefact view: Pretty rapidly• Generational change and the opportunity

environment are holding strong for the middle class

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FORCE #3: Sustainability

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Personal Sustainability

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Facilitators to sustainability: Agree

77%71%

45%

28%


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Hindrances to personal sustainability:Agree

69% 63%

33% 32%


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I do not believe that people like me can always find work or get a job

Tota

l

15-2

4

25-3

4

35-4

950

+

Blac

k

Colou

red

Indian

White

LSM 2

-4

LSM 5

-6

LSM 7

-8

LSM 9

-10

Up to

Prim

ary co

mplet

e

High

scho

ol

Mat

ric

Post m

atric

40%33%

38%36%

54%

40%42%45%

37%

60%

46%

36%29%

66%

47%

36%

25%


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Less than before….

These days I'm paying for things I used to get free (like education, medical care etc)

Services were better in the old SA than they are now

67%

58%


Agree

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I already am or intend to start working for myself in the next year or two: Agree

39% 37%43% 41%

32%

40%

26%

43% 41%

33%

41%

48%


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Social Capital: Know how to…..

How to register a business

How to register with SARS for tax

Contact someone if you have a legal or financial problem

How to work out percentages

How to keep accounts

How to work out your household / personal budget

Read a bank statement

Read an electricity / services account

38%

46%

53%

60%

76%

77%

87%

87%


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Economic Sustainability

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The gap between the rich and the poor is just going to get bigger

2009 2011

49%58%

30%28%

16% 10%5% 5%

Don't know

Disagree

Agree

Agree strongly

Source: futurefact

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Attitudes to Unions: Agree

I believe that strikers are justified in resorting to violence

I support that workers have the right not to strike

I would like to see the government reining in/controlling the unions

Providers of essential services, like teachers, nurses & police should never be allowed to strike

The unions protect their own members but make things harder/worse for people who don't have jobs

The gap between the wages of government officials and public servants is much too high

I support that workers have the right to strike

Government does not take issues seriously until civil action/strikes occur

36%

42%

54%

60%

62%

63%

71%

74%


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Productivity & efficiency: Agree

72% 68%


Essential to ensure economic growth and advancement

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IMD – World Competitiveness Yearbook

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Ranking of SA 37 38 50 43 48 44 52

Total Number of countries 50 52 55 55 57 57 58

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Our place among the emerging market countries amidst all the global economic turmoil…

South Africa ranks 10th for foreign direct investment in Africa.

South Africa ranks below Nigeria and Egypt - two countries which are on the rise - but we are also, incredibly, behind Libya.

Top of the list of disincentives to invest is our weak and uncertain policy environment.

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EnvironmentalSustainability

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I already recycle things like glass, paper and cans

I believe that I can reduce the impact of climate change on the earth by changing my habits

I am prepared to switch off electrical appliances to save energy/electricity

31%

50%

80%

Environmental sustainability: Agree


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Your thoughts on Sustainability: Given that this includes personal, economic and environmental sustainability, how many points out of 10 do you give us as a country?

futurefact view: 6• Willingness to save, create jobs and protect

the environment is there, but government policies are not creating a sufficiently conducive environment

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FORCE #4: Social Inclusion & the Value of Diversity

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Spirit of inclusion and a meritocracy mindset

83%79%

71% 71%


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Have friends from other race groups

Total LSM 2-4 LSM 5-6 LSM 7-8 LSM 9-10

52%

24%39%

61% 66%

48%

76%61%

39% 34%

No

Yes


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Self Description (First Descriptor)

South African51%African

31%

By race9%

By language group4%

By religion2%

By cultural belief2%


People no longer see themselves in the boxes of the apartheid era

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Attitudes to Africa

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Declining negative or divisive attitudes regarding Africa…

“Immigrants are a threat to jobs for South Africans, they should not be allowed into the country”In 2006

69%

agreedIn 2011

59%

agreed

Source: futurefact

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Declining negative or divisive attitudes regarding Africa…

In 2011

59%

agreed

“People from South Africa are superior to those from other parts of Africa”

I’m not arrogant

I’m just better than

youIn 2007

67%

agreed

Source: futurefact

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Your thoughts on Social Inclusion: What is the likelihood we can achieve unity in diversity?

Already a reality80:2050:50It’s a pipe dream – it’s never going to happen

futurefact view: 80:20With a big proviso that the constitution, media freedom, the judiciary and so on are respected and leadership sends out racially inclusive messages

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FORCE #5: Our Digital World

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Technological advances driven by pressures from a Digital Society have allowed people and countries to leap-frog technology.

The Giant Leap

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Attitudes to technology: Agree

53% 51%

46%


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Communication devices in the home


Products like I-Pods, I-Pads, Blackberries and Kindles still have very few users – even in the upper classes

A cellphone A landline at home

Any portable MP3 player

Smartphone GPS A Blackberry An I-Phone An I-Pad

89%

21%

7% 7% 5% 5%1% 1%

86%

10%

3% 3% 2% 2% 1%

90%

26%

8% 7% 5% 6%

93%

32%

15%21%

13% 11%

2% 2%

Total Working class Middle class Upper middle/upper class

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Access internet/mobi sites/wap

Use twitter/ facebook /what's up

Send e-mails

Use instant messaging like mxit

Mms (picture messages) from your cell phone

Download music on your cell phone

Listen to the radio on your cell phone

Listen to music on your cell phone

Send photos from your cell phone camera

Take photos using your cell phone camera

Send please call me's from your cell phone

Send and receive smss

13%

13%

15%

16%

20%

22%

25%

29%

31%

40%

53%

77%


What people do on their cellphones

Base: have own cellphone

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Attitudes to unsolicited calls and sms: Agree

Total Black White 16-24 years

25-34 years

35-49 years

50+ years

Work-ing /

lower class

Middle class

Upper middle

& upper

43% 43%

52%

46% 46% 46%

34% 36%

46%

54%

29% 28%

38%33% 34%

30%

18% 20%

33%

43%

Receiving many more unsolicited sms adverts and sales callsWould pay to join a do not call or sms me service


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Tota

l

15-2

4

25-3

4

35-4

9

50+

Bla

ck

Colo

ure

d

India

n

White

Work

ing c

lass

Mid

dle

cla

ss

Upper

mid

dl..

.

31%

44%

34%

28%

18%

25%20%

36%

56%

16%

37%

53%


Who has access to the internet?

70% 82% 71%

61% 53%

79% 80%61%

57%

74% 69%

69%

49% 38% 40%

65% 65%

35%50%

56%

67%

32% 46%

69%

Via cell Via PC

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Shopping on the internet

Read/write blogs

Get news alerts/breaking news

Downloading videos

Read a publication online on a computer screen

Visited a newspaper website

Downloading games

Doing banking on the internet

Downloading music

Social networking

Sending/receiving e mails

Browsing/searching for information

9%

11%

15%

16%

18%

21%

21%

25%

35%

47%

62%

76%


What people do on the internet

Base: have internet access

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Cellphone penetration Africa

In 2002 there were 49 million cellphones in Africa

Now there are 500 million…At this rate every person living in Africa will own a

cellphone by 2020

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Digital world key to economic & personal growth

Leapfrogging technology is key to economic and personal growth in Africa.

The youth are known to be the early adopters of technology, but the knowledge is then filtered to older generations.

This could change the face of marketing, banking, education and political freedom for the youth in Africa.

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Your thoughts on Digital World: What do you think is the more likely scenario in the next 5 years or so?

We will continue to leapfrog aheadOur growth will be stymied by regulations and costs

futurefact view: We will continue to leapfrog ahead

• Advances in technology, generational change and business will put pressure on regulators as will the economic imperative for the country

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IN C

ON

CLU

SIO

N..

.

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Challenges facing South Africa.....

Education

Healthcare

Media Freedo

m

Alcoholism

BEEChild & woman abuse

Climate change

Crime Food cost

Health care

Gangs

Illegal immigrant

s

Emigration

Electricity

Economic transformation

Drugs

StrikesService delivery

Corruption

Poverty

Low exportsRand strength

Global market volatility

Fuel price

Land redistribution Foreign investmen

t

Judicial system

Housing

HIV/Aids Racism

Rand volatilit

y

Police

Skills shortag

e

Fracking

Water

Unemployment

XenophobiaPolitical

leadership

Labour laws

etc...

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4. Social Inclusion

2. Class Mobility

5. Digital World

1. Political Risk &

Stability3. Sustainability

A nuanced and useful way of contextualising the challenges

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To build sustainable strategic advantage ......

Attitudes precede behaviour so change on a societal level translates into a changing consumer market.

Strategising for product and services development, positioning

and communication is a crucial ongoing process for any

organisation in the evolving South Africa.

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www.futurefact.co.za

Thank you

Documents

Future fact The Big 5 The Social Forces Shaping South Africa