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Centre for Global Studies Strategy ХХІ
Future Development of Gas Industry in Ukraine
Mykhailo M. GoncharHorný Smokovec, October 6, 2016
Prediction of gas extraction in Ukraine, 2012-2035by IHS CERA
Hydrocarbon’s deposits of Ukrainian sector of the Black Sea and the Azov Sea
642,62
1003,98
264,2
413,3
DEEP WATER for PSA
E&P projects for conventional and unconventional gas and the Black Sea shelf (Deep Water) in Ukraine
The Kremlin’s strategic
vision for Ukraine in
energy sector:
removing Western
competitors of the Russian
state companies, creating
unacceptable high military
and political risks in the
area of prospective
production of conventional
and unconventional
hydrocarbons in the South
and East of Ukraine, in
particular, in the Black Sea
shelf area around Crimean peninsula.
Four promisingE&P projects were established during 2012-2013by American and European majorsfor 50-years period
Drilling and extractive platforms of Ukrainian state-owned company NaftoGazon the Black Sea and the Azov Sea shelf were occupied by “little greenmen” in
March 2014
642,62 mtoe
1003,98
264,2
413,3
Dynamics of Ukrainian gas sector:
reduction of the consumption and import;
gas supply from the EU, zero gas from Russia
Years
Indicators
1995 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
projection
Consumption,
bcm
85.4 76.4 59.3 54.8 50.358 42.5 33.727 32.1
Production,
bcm
18.1 20.5 20.6 20.2 20.998 20.5* 19.896* 20.2*
Import,
bcm
66.3 57.6 44.8 32.9 27.974:
25.842–RU
2.132–EU
19.6:
14.450–RU
5.016–EU
16.442:
10.302–EU
6.140–RU
13.0:
13.0–EU
0,00–RU
* without Black Sea Shelf offshore production
where Russia steals ~1.6 bcm annually
Technical potential of the
reverse capacities from the EU to
Ukraine (bcm annually):
- through Poland – 1.5
- through Hungary – 6.5
- through Slovakia – 14.6
Total – 22,6
CEGH
117,7
109,3
105,2106,1
112,5
120,4 121,4
113,8112,1
116,9
92,8
95,4
101,1
81,2
134,3 136,2 136,2136,2
140,0 141,0 142,0 142,5 142,5 142,5 142,5 142,5 142,5 142,5
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Транзит пропускна здатність
млрд.куб.
Dynamics of UA gas transit capacities (red line) and volumes (blue)
86,1
62,2
67,1
Activities of Russia in 2014 aimed at discrediting of Ukraine's Gas Transmission System and forcing Europe towards acceptation and support of South Stream: Two explosions made by Russian subversive groups (May 12, 2014 and June 17, 2014) were curried out and presented in media by Russian propaganda as the technical incidents on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod main transit pipeline.
An average accident intensity of the Ukrainian GTS for the last five years is 29 accidents per year.Gazprom: “At an average accident intensity on the Russian trunk gas pipelines composes 0,2 accidents per year for 1000 km» (Informatorium). Given the length of Gazprom’s pipelines of 168 300 km, the figure of accident intensity is 33.7 accidents per year .
According to IEA calculations 2015 routes via Ukraine and Slovakia are most attractive as for existing gas flows as for the new gas flows from non-Russian sources: Iran, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan
Ukraine – European Union. Energy.
Article 274 of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement:
With a view to further integrate markets of energy goods, each Party shall take into account the energy networks and capacities of the other Party when developing policy documents regarding demand and supply scenarios, interconnections, energy strategies and infrastructure development plans.
Energy Union Package. A Framework Strategy for a Resilient Energy Union with a Forward-Looking Climate Change Policy, February 25, 2015:Particular attention will be paid to upgrading the Strategic Partnership on energy with Ukraine. This will address issues related to Ukraine's importance as a transit country as well as those related to Ukraine's energy market reforms, such as the upgrade of its gas network, the setting up of an appropriate regulatory framework for the electricity market and increasing energy efficiency in Ukraine as a means of reducing its dependence on imported energy.
One year of Energy Union, February 25, 2016:Internationally, expect to see more cooperation between the EU and its Mediterranean neighbours, more on the Southern Gas Corridor, deepened energy dialogue with key partners including the US, Norway and Canada, as well as the launch of the Ukraine Strategic Energy Partnership
