Future Demographics - NSAAFuture Demographics By Nate Fristoe Director, RRC Associates I Stockphoto.com guaranteed, but the good news is that our efforts to grow the sport over the

� • NSAA Journal • Supplement Issue w w w. n s a a . o r g

U.S. Population Trends in the 21st Century and the Impact on the Ski Industry.

On its website, the U. S. Census Bureau (census.gov) maintains a population clock that ticks

off each new person added to the total population. On average, every minute of every day,

nine people are born, six die, and two emigrate from other nations. That makes for a net

gain of about six people per minute. You might reasonably wonder, how many of these

spanking new Americans are skiers or snowboarders? Well, after doing some rough calcu-

lations based on socioeconomic data, mortality and fertility rates, and skier/snowboarder demographics, the

resulting answer is a little discouraging.

Assuming current trends hold, you would have to wait a little over eight hours for the first whole skier/

snowboarder to emerge. That wait time varies quite a bit depending on which region of the country your

resort is located, but it drives home a truth we have known for a while now: Every skier and rider on the

slopes today, and those that will be on the slopes tomorrow, are precious, and maintaining their loyalty is

critical to the success of our industry.

The scarcity of future skiers and snowboarders serves to reemphasize the Growth Model’s trinity of trial,

conversion and retention. However, if we truly want to cut down that eight-hour wait time, we need to more

aggressively seek out pockets of opportunity in the marketplace. That process involves looking beyond the 15- to

20-year horizon for which the Growth Model was originally built. We need to deepen our understanding of the

demographics of the 21st century, get out in front of the curve, and capitalize on the trends that will benefit our

industry, while simultaneously dealing with some of the threats that will also pose challenges. Success is by no means

FutureDemographics


By Nate FristoeDirector, RRC Associates

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guaranteed, but the good news is that our

efforts to grow the sport over the past eight

years have given us a small head start.

Ready, set, go….This is the first installment of a five-part

series that will examine some of the posi-

tive and negative demographic trends

that will arise over the next century.

Subsequent articles will drill down to

analyze the specific demographic forces

that will uniquely impact each region of

the country. At the national level there

are five things to remember, five forces

that will mold this country, and to some

extent, the world: longevity, fertility,

diversity, migration and education.

LongevityLet’s deal with the really good news first;

we are all likely going to live longer than

we thought possible. If you were born

in the U.S. in the mid-1950s, your life

expectancy at birth was around 69 years.

If you were born in the third world in the

1950s, your life expectancy at birth was a

dismal 36 years. While a life expectancy

gap still exists between the first and third

worlds, the differences are narrowing.

Realistically many of the individuals born

in America in the ‘50s can easily expect

to live into their early 80s. Greater levels

of education, income and exercise will all

boost that life expectancy significantly

higher, with many more people making

it to the century mark than ever before in

human history.

Increased longevity is good for

everyone, but snowsports will uniquely

benefit from this trend. While the age-

related dropout patterns for skiing and

snowboarding haven’t changed signifi-

cantly over the past five years, it is

likely that Baby Boomers will push their

participation forward longer than prior

generations would have. Whether or not

that happens for any given individual

will depend largely on the two highly

interrelated personal attributes of health

and wealth.

For the most affluent skiers and

snowboarders, these longer life spans

will drive a longer period of involve-

ment in snowsports. But it is unreal-

istic for the industry to assume that

involvement will persist beyond certain

age thresholds. Seventy may be the

new 60, 80 may be the new 70, but

skiing and snowboarding as a lifestyle

activity doesn’t pair well with many of

the underlying biological realities of

the aging that occurs in a 70-year-old

body. That said, significant generational

differences exist that may shatter some

of these assumptions.

When analyzing the effects of

increased longevity on the participa-

tion of Baby Boomers, it’s important to

recognize that the Baby Boom genera-

tion can really be broken out into two

waves: Baby Boomer cohort 1 (BB1),

and Baby Boomer cohort 2 (BB2). BB1 is

the leading wave of the Boomer genera-

tion. This group of individuals was born

between the years 1946 and 1954. In

2007 they range in age from 53 to 61

years of age (see Table 1). BB1 currently

makes up about 11 percent of the total

U.S. population (see Table 2). These are

the people who were full participants in

the 1960s, they fought in Vietnam and

were the first to experiment and question

many of the cultural norms their parents

accepted without question.

The second major wave of the

Boomer generation is BB2. This group

is about 37 percent larger than BB1.

This cohort was born between the years

1955 and 1964. Currently this group

ranges in age from 43 to 52 years of age.

Like an older child that softens up the

parents for a younger sibling, BB1 soft-

ened up America for BB2. And while

the lifestyles and common experiences

of both groups are enough for many

marketers to psychographically lump

Demographics

Supplement Issue • NSAA Journal • �

FIGURE 1 • LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH FROM 19�0 TO 20�0

w w w. n s a a . o r g


Projected Percent of Percent of Cohort Total Cohort Under Population Population 65 Years Old

Projected U.S.Year Population BB1 BB2 BB1 BB2 BB1 BB2

2007 300,912,947 32,675,916 44,889,895 10.9% 14.9% 100% 100%

2010 308,935,581 31,969,788 44,569,188 10.3% 14.4% 100% 100%

2015 322,365,787 30,299,650 43,670,730 9.4% 13.5% 48% 100%

2020 335,804,546 27,899,527 42,251,927 8.3% 12.6% 0% 91%

2030 363,584,435 20,710,056 37,083,079 5.7% 10.2% 0% 0%

2040 391,945,658 11,009,758 27,855,514 2.8% 7.1% 0% 0%

2050 419,853,587 3,287,687 15,255,520 0.8% 3.6% 0% 0%

Baby Boomer Cohort 1 (BB1): Baby Boomer Cohort 2 (BB2): Born between 1946 and 1954 Born between 1955 and 1964

Year UpperAge LowerAge UpperAge LowerAge

2007 61 53 52 43

2010 64 56 55 46

2015 69 61 60 51

2020 74 66 65 56

2030 84 76 75 66

2040 94 86 85 76

2050 104 96 95 86

TABLE 1 • YEAR OF BIRTH AND AGES OF BABY BOOMER COHORTS

TABLE 2 • SIzE OF BABY BOOMER COHORTS

the two generations together, the earliest

waves of BB1 will likely age in a similar

fashion as their parents. Health and

wealth will foster continued participa-

tion in skiing and snowboarding for the

heartiest of our BB1 core participants,

but beyond 70 years of age, don’t expect

much from this group. In fact, recent

evidence from the National Health and

Retirement study, supported by the

National Institute on Aging, discourag-

ingly suggests that many older Boomers

may actually be in worse health than the

prior generation at a similar age. While

this trend isn’t conclusive, it does

suggest that by 2020, only 13 years

from now, we can expect to lose the

vast majority of BB1 skiers and snow-

boarders (see Table 2).

What about BB2? They represent an

interesting wildcard. Most are currently

in their prime earning years, and only in

2020 does the leading edge of this group

begin to retire. We likely have at least 20

more years of solid participation from

this cohort, but the health and lifestyle

of this group could drive long-range

participation significantly higher. The

real threat to BB2 participation comes

from the financial burden of supporting

both their own children and parents,

and the tax burden of supporting the

retirement of the BB1 cohort. This

financial pressure won’t likely affect

more affluent families, but it could put

a pinch on skiing and snowboarding’s

middle class participants.

Just to illustrate the population

dynamics of the Baby Boomer genera-

tion further, Figures 2 through 5 present

the U.S. population by single year of

age and sex in the form of a population

pyramid. On the left is the age profile

of men, on the right is the age profile

for women. Figure 2 shows a snapshot

of what the U.S. currently looks like;

you can see the huge bulge of the Baby

Boomer generation highlighted in gray.

A line is drawn across the graph at 70

years of age to highlight the expected

maximum age of dropout for snows-

ports. Jumping to 2020 (see Figure 3)

we can see that much of the BB1 cohort

is over the 70-year-old threshold, and

by 2030 (see Figure 4) almost the entire

Baby Boomer cohort has exited the

sport. Looking way down the road, by

2050 even GenX has left the sport, and

the Echo Boom assumes the position

Boomers occupy today.

The implications for snowsports

are clear: With proper retention of our

core Boomer customers we have, at a

maximum, a seven- to 10-year window in

which we can enjoy current levels of visi-

tation. If we don’t foster stronger GenX

and GenY participation, we won’t have

a base to build on moving beyond 2020.

This isn’t a new message, but the relative

immediacy of the problem should moti-

vate the industry.

FertilityBuilding up youth participation is one

key strategy for growing the sport.

But therein lies a bit of a problem; we

just aren’t having kids like we used to.

Figure 6 shows fertility rates, or put

another way, the average number of

babies a woman can expect to give birth

to during her lifetime. These fertility

rates are plotted from 1940 through

2004, with vertical lines representing

generational boundaries. A country

experiencing zero population growth

(ZPG) has a fertility rate of 2.1. This

ZPG line is painted on to Figure 6 to

w w w. n s a a . o r g Supplement Issue • NSAA Journal • �

FIGURE 3 • POPULATION PYRAMID BY AGE AND SEX FOR THE UNITED STATES: 2020

FIGURE � • POPULATION PYRAMID BY AGE AND SEX FOR THE UNITED STATES: 20�0

FIGURE � • POPULATION PYRAMID BY AGE AND SEX FOR THE UNITED STATES: 2030

graphically show just how far above or below that threshold

the U.S. has been over time.

The Baby Boom generation resulted from an unprecedented

blossoming of fertility in the years immediately following World

War II. The peak came in 1957 when fertility was at about 3.8.

Fertility declined steadily through the ‘60s and reached a low of

about 1.7 in 1977. That decline and bottoming out defines the

GenX cohort. As the Baby Boomers reached childbearing years,

fertility picked up a bit and we see the “Echo Boom” form and

peak in 1990 with a fertility rate of 2.08. Today fertility hovers

at around 2.05, less than the ZPG rate, but far greater than the

anemic fertility rates of Canada (~1.6) or Japan (~1.2).

So what suppresses fertility? Education and income gener-

ally correlate negatively with fertility, meaning that wealthier

and more educated women tend on average to have fewer chil-

dren than their less educated counterparts. With the current

Given the relatively low number of potential new participants flowing into the sport from natural population growth, we need to do everything we can to hold on to our core families.

FIGURE 2 • POPULATION PYRAMID BY AGE AND SEX FOR THE UNITED STATES: 200�


skiing and snowboarding can signal the

death of not only their participation, but

the loss of their children’s future partici-

pation. Given the relatively low number

of potential new participants flowing

into the sport from natural population

growth, we need to do everything we can

to hold on to our core families.

DiversityDiversity is driven both from within the

population through endogenous growth,

and also via immigration from other

countries. The U.S. alone receives about

37 percent of the world’s immigration.

That influx enriches our culture, pumps

up our economy, and creates challenges

for businesses that have traditionally

marketed to a more homogenous popu-

lation. It’s important to note that much

of the mixed reaction to immigration

can be partially attributed to a lack of

historical perspective.

Baby Boomers grew up during the

greatest lull in immigration this country

had seen in 100 years (see Figure 7). In

1900, 13.6 percent of the population

was foreign born. With the imposing

of immigration quotas, that number

dropped to a low of 4.7 percent by

1970. After the removal of quotas in

1965, the percent of the population that

was foreign born climbed steadily to the

current level of about 10 percent. The

foreign born percentage is projected to

continue to rise and eventually stabilize

at the early 20th century level of about

13 percent. So in terms of our foreign

born population, it really is a story of

going “back to the future.”

On the other hand, the origin of

immigrants couldn’t look more different

from the southern European influx of

the early 20th century. Where do today’s

immigrants come from? From 2000

to 2005, about 41 percent of immi-

grants were from Latin America and

FIGURE � • TOTAL NATIvE BORN AND FOREIGN BORN U.S. POPULATION: ESTIMATED AND PROjECTED FROM 1900 TO 20�0

FIGURE � • AvERAGE FERTILITY RATES IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 19�0 TO 200�

trend, our modest 1 percent per year

population growth is fed primarily from

immigration and babies born to lower

income, less educated households. In

2004, only about 8 percent of mothers

that had given birth in the past year

had a graduate or professional degree,

and only about 19 percent had a bach-

elor’s degree. That means that almost 75

percent of babies born in that 12-month

period were brought into households

where the mother had only an associate’s

degree or less.

For snowsports this just reempha-

sizes the importance of hanging on to

the core skier and snowboarder families

currently participating in the sport. At

the same time, it’s important to reach out

to GenX skiers and snowboarders who

have young kids and may have dropped

out for a season or two while raising their

family. That post-parenting pause in

w w w. n s a a . o r g Supplement Issue • NSAA Journal • 9

the Caribbean, 32 percent were from

Asia, 18 percent were from Europe and

Canada and 9 percent were from a mix

of other countries. About 12 percent of

immigrants from 2000 to 2004 had an

advanced degree of some type, and 22

percent had a bachelor’s degree. Almost

50 percent of immigrants from Asia had

a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Given the lack of growth in many

segments of the population, it’s vital to

our economic health that these immi-

grant populations are assimilated into

our culture and labor force. Higher

education levels will only help speed

that process and the data clearly suggest

which groups may have the most rapid

path to assimilation. The urgency of capi-

talizing on this labor force will become

especially clear as the BB1 generation

begins to retire in serious numbers and

current labor shortages worsen.

A quick glance at fertility rates (see

Figure 8) in the U.S. instantly provides

quick insight into which groups are

providing significant population growth

endogenously. Clearly the Hispanic

population is one of the most produc-

tive segments. Accounting for both

immigration and endogenous births, the

Hispanic population grows 68 percent

by 2020 (see Figure 9), and 217 percent

by 2050. Currently the Hispanic popu-

lation accounts for about 18 percent of

the total population, and by 2050 that

number will be 24 percent, or a little

over 100 million people. With current

and future population dynamics it’s

no surprise that the white, non-Hispanic

population becomes the minority by

2050 (see Figure 10). What is a surprise

to some is that it takes that long. With

about 45 percent of the population iden-

tified as white, non-Hispanic, California

already lives in this future and it will take

the rest of the country about 30 years to

catch up. So while diversity is de facto

FIGURE � • FERTILITY RATES BY RACE: 200�

FIGURE 10 • PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION THAT IS WHITE, NON-HISPANIC, 2000 TO 20�0

FIGURE 9 • PERCENT CHANGE IN RACIAL GROUPS, 2000 TO 20�0

10 • NSAA Journal • Supplement Issue w w w. n s a a . o r g

for many, it’s important to acknowledge

the enormous regional variation in this

phenomenon.

MigrationOf the roughly 25 million people

who migrated between regions of the

country between 2004 and 2005, 65

FIGURE 12 • TOP TEN FASTEST GROWING COUNTIES FROM 2000 TO 200� AND | MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES BY COUNTY

FIGURE 11 • MOBILITY IN U.S. FROM 200� TO 200�

percent moved to the South or West.

Every year the Northeast loses about

400,000 residents and the Midwest

79,000 residents (see Figure 11). Of

the 100 fastest growing Metropolitan

Statistical Areas (MSAs) tracked by the

Census Bureau, only little Dover, Del.,

made a showing for the Northeast. Of

the top 10 fastest growing counties, not

a single Midwestern or Northeastern

county made an appearance on the list

(see Figure 12).

This trend of out-migration from

the Northeast and Midwest is projected

to continue to grow with time. This

certainly doesn’t imply the Northeast

and Midwest won’t continue to generate

a substantial number of skier/snow-

boarder visits, but what it does mean is

that gradually the geographic center of

snowsports is moving to the South and

to the West. Future articles will explore

in more detail what this means for opera-

tors in the Northeast and Midwest, but

for Western resorts with growing popu-

lation bases, the future could be bright.

EducationOf course the brightness of the sport’s

future depends critically on the indus-

try’s ability to communicate the allure of

snowsports to the right audience. In the

America of the 21st century, education

level may be our best predictor of who

is, and isn’t, a good candidate for the

sport. Overall, household incomes have

only increased a modest 9 percent over

the past 30 years; however, the incomes

of the wealthiest and best-educated

segments of society have gone up signifi-

cantly more. From 1974 to 2004, the

richest 20 percent of Americans have

experienced a 69 percent increase in

their income, while the richest 1 percent

have experienced a 176 percent increase

in their income (see Figure 13).

Further evidence for the impor-

tance of education in determining one’s

income growth trajectory can be gleaned

from an analysis of average income

versus education level from 1991 to

2005 (see Figure 14). The incomes of

those with professional and doctorate

degrees rose at a significantly greater

rate than those with either just a bach-


elor’s degree or high school graduates.

Looking to the future it seems as if what

the high school diploma was to 1950s

America, the bachelor’s degree will be to

the America of the 21st century.

One additional educational trend

worth noting is the increasing gap

between the educational attainments of

men versus women. Take for example

the Northeast, where 41 percent of

women age 25 to 34 possess a bachelor’s

degree or higher, versus only 34 percent

of men. This performance gap exists in

all regions of the country and may have

unforeseen implications for snowsports

to the extent that better educated, higher

earning women may start to marry less

educated, lower earning men.

ConclusionsAs an industry we have a very good

shot at breaking the 60 million visit

mark at some point in the next five to

10 years. Yet if we aren’t careful, that

could be our all-time peak. Unless we

want to suffer a long decline in a post-

2020 world, that eight-hour wait time

we mentioned earlier needs to be cut

down. We can’t afford to wait around for

skiers/snowboarders to come to us, while

other leisure industries reach out to

target individuals who could have been

future skiers and riders. In order to take

the sport to the next level, we need to

target and grow with the segments of the

population that will be most attracted

to snowsports and adopt it as a lifestyle.

Likely targets are suggested by educa-

tion and income profiles, as well as

sheer numbers in the population, but

depending on the underlying demog-

raphy, the strategies are highly region-

alized. In the second installment of our

ongoing series we’ll roll up our sleeves

and try to identify areas of opportunity

in perhaps the most challenging region,

the Northeast. n

FIGURE 13 • PERCENT GROWTH IN REAL AFTER-TAX INCOME FROM 19�� TO 200�

FIGURE 1� • EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND AvERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 1991 TO 200�

FIGURE 1� • PERCENT OF POPULATION AGE 2� TO 3� WITH BACHELOR’S DEGREE OR HIGHER:BY CENSUS REGION AND GENDER


In the second part of our series

of articles examining future

demographics and their impacts

on skiing and snowboarding,

we direct our attention to the

Northeast. First, let us clarify the bound-

aries of the Northeastern census region.

This region includes both the Middle

Atlantic and New England census divi-

sions, including Pennsylvania, New

Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode

Island and Vermont. These regional break-

outs are different from the Northeastern

resort region as traditionally defined by

NSAA; however, for the purposes of this

series, the census boundaries are a more

effective way of examining the market

dynamics that will impact resort operators

in the region.

For many years, the Northeast

region was the intellectual and economic

capital of the country. Although it retains

elements of its past glories today, tech-

nological advances and globalization

have made other regions of the country,

and the world, extraordinarily competi-

tive in ways we couldn’t have imagined

as recently as 10 years ago. From 2000

to 2006, the Northeast region has expe-

rienced an extremely underwhelming

0.76 percent growth in population (see

Figure 1). During that same period, the

growth rate of the number of jobs in the

Northeast region was roughly half that

of other regions, and the New England

states lagged severely behind the rest of

the country. The primary demographic

challenges Northeastern resort operators

will face in the early 21st Century will be

stagnant population growth, continuing

out-migration of young people from the

region, and an aging skier/snowboarder

base. In addition, offshore immigrants will

drive almost all of the projected popula-

tion growth in the region, and this group

has not traditionally adopted skiing and

snowboarding quickly. The challenges are

significant, and frankly, only the best and

brightest operators may be able to weather

this demographic storm.


FutureDemographics

PA RT 2 : T H E N O RT H E A S T

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Demographics

Moving OutIn 1977, Billy Joel had a big hit, “Movin’

Out,” a song about a disillusioned kid

from New York who was anxious to

move on with his life; this song is a fitting

anthem for the Northeast. Since 1977,

when United Van Lines began tracking

outbound moves, New York has continu-

ously been one of the biggest outbound

states. It is certainly not alone; since 2000,

more than 1.8 million people have moved

away from the entire Northeast region,

and a staggering 70 percent of incorpo-

rated cities and towns in the Northeast

have experienced a decline in popula-

tion from 2000 to 2006 (see the blue area

below the line in Figure 2). Cumulatively,

those declining cities and towns account

for about 42 percent of the total popu-

lation of the region and have an average

population size of about 7,800 (see Figure

3). The next biggest segment of the popu-

lation, 32 percent, lives in cities and

towns that have grown moderately, 2 to 3

percent, since 2000. These places average

about 130,000 in population and much,

if not all, of their growth has come from

international immigration.

Unfortunately, the Northeast tends

to lose the prime demographic segments

skiing and snowboarding count on for

continued growth. Of those who moved

out of region from 2005 to 2006, almost

14 percent were 25- to 29-year-olds, and

about 30 percent were 30- to 44-year-

olds (see Figure 4). Of those who move

away, about 65 percent make $30,000

per year or less. Generally, younger indi-

viduals move away to seek out more

income, better living conditions, and

a better chance for upward mobility.

Discouragingly, among adults 35 and

over who have recently moved out of

the region, almost 44 percent had annual

household incomes of $50,000 per year

or more, and 12 percent made more than

$100,000 per year or more. These indi-

FIGURE 2 • POPUlATION IN 2006 AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM 2000 TO 2006 IN THE POPUlATION OF NORTHEASTERN INCORPORATED CITIES AND TOwNS.

FIGURE 3 • PERCENT OF PlACES, PEOPlE AND AvERAGE PlACE SIzE by PERCENT GROwTH FROM 2000 TO 2006.

FIGURE 1 • NORTHEAST, NEw ENGlAND, ANDMIDDlE ATlANTIC 2000 AND 2006 POPUlATION.



viduals tend to move to the South and West,

and both regions’ economies and cultures are

energized by their presence.

ProjectionsLooking ahead to 2030, out-migration and low

birthrates result in extremely modest growth

projections for the Northeast. In 2000 the

region accounted for about 19 percent of the

total population of the United States, by 2030

it will only account for about 16 percent (see

Figures 5 and 6). By 2030 the entire region is

projected to grow by only 5 percent. Growth

in the New England Division is particularly

moderate to non-existent, with rural regions

showing significant stagnation. Larger metropol-

itan areas like Boston and New York will show

stronger growth rates, however both metropol-

itan areas will continue to suffer from a rapidly

dwindling middle class. Some observers have

worried this trend results in the “resortification”

of the American city. In his book, “The City:

A Global History,” author Joel Kotkin details

the phenomena as defined by a continuing

erosion of the middle class, a steady move

towards developing more high-end residential

units in urban centers, and an increasing reli-

ance on culture and entertainment as economic

drivers of growth. The impacts of this trend on

snowsports are unclear, however the long-term

economic sustainability of these development

patterns has been questioned.

Implications for Snowsports2020 represents an important deadline for the

snowsports industry as the year that marks

the anticipated exit of the first wave of Baby

Boomers from the sport. This will particularly

impact the Northeast given the relatively dismal

economic and population dynamics of the

market currently aged 35 and younger. Again,

almost all of the population growth in the

Northeast is driven by immigration and higher

birth rates for minorities. From 2007 to 2020

every single age group in the minority popula-

tion will grow significantly (see Figure 8). In

contrast only the 60- to 80-year-old age segment

FIGURE 5 • EACH REGION’S PROJECTED PERCENT OF TOTAl U.S. POPUlATION FROM 2000 TO 2030.

FIGURE 6 • NEw ENGlAND AND MID-ATlANTICDIvISION’S PROJECTED PERCENT OF TOTAl U.S. POPUlATION FROM 2000 TO 2030.

FIGURE 4 • AGE DISTRIbUTION OF INDIvIDUAlS wHO MOvED OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM 2005 TO 2006.


shows substantial growth in the white, non-

Hispanic population. The window of opportu-

nity for building up the sport while the Baby

Boomer population is still fully active and

participating is closing fast.

The current engine of snowsports in the

Northeast is the 40- to 60-year-old age group.

In just 13 years this group will be in signifi-

cant decline in the Northeast (see the red bars

in Figure 9). Their departure from the sport

will be difficult to compensate for if more isn’t

done to reach out to individuals currently 20 to

30 years old. While diversity outreach will be

an important component of growing the youth

market, particularly within the Asian, Eastern

European and Hispanic populations, in isolation

this strategy won’t be sufficient to grow the sport

in the time frame under consideration. Over

the next 13 years retaining the younger Baby

Boomer segments will be absolutely necessary to

help sustain the industry while the youth market

builds in participation and spending.

This is a tricky dual strategy to employ at a

single resort, as tactics that result in appealing to

youth are often at odds with tactics that provide

a product more tailored to a skier age 50 and

older. For any given resort in the Northeast, one

potential strategy is to selectively differentiate on

specific performance factors in order to stand

out in the marketplace and appeal to a more

targeted demographic. One important compo-

nent in the process of selecting your appropriate

growth path will be to review your resort’s demo-

graphics and customer satisfaction measures

via the NSAA National Demographic Survey.

Comparing these results against projected popu-

lation and economic growth patterns in your

individual market can be extremely helpful in

developing repositioning strategies.

One area of potential opportunity for the

Northeastern resorts will be to tap into the

growing and affluent Southeastern population

to a much greater extent than in the past.

In part three of our series we will turn our

attention to this region, an area of the country

that will be of vital importance for the future

health of snowsports. n

FIGURE 8 • THE NORTHEAST PROJECTED POPUlATION GROwTH FROM 2007 TO 2020 bROkEN OUT by AGE AND MINORITy vS. wHITE, NON-HISPANIC

FIGURE 9 • THE NORTHEAST SkIER/SNOwbOARDER AGE DISTRIbUTION vS. THE NORTHEASTPOPUlATION AGE DISTRIbUTION: 2007 vS. 2020

FIGURE 7 • THE NORTHEAST, NEw ENGlAND, AND MIDDlE ATlANTIC PROJECTED POPUlATION GROwTH FROM 2000 TO 2030


For the third article in the

future demographics series

we turn our attention to

the South. Comprising 16

states and the District of

Columbia, the South is the most populous

region tracked by the census bureau. Three

areas define the region, the South Atlantic

division, the East South Atlantic division,

and the West South Atlantic division.

More than 109 million people currently

call the South home, or about 36 percent

of all Americans. Over the past 56 years

the entire U. S. population has grown by

about 97 percent. During that same time-

frame the South’s population has grown

131 percent. In contrast to the out-migra-

tion patterns we’ve noted in the Northeast,

the South has been a significant beneficiary

of internal migration from other regions

of the country. This pattern is expected to

continue over the next 23 years. By 2030,

through a combination of internal and

international migration and endogenous

natural growth, the region will account for

almost 40 percent of the population of the

United States.

Components of ChangeThis robust growth is by no means distrib-

uted evenly across the region. The South

Atlantic and West South Central divisions

have grown at much faster rates than the

East South Central division (see Figure 1).

Fundamentally Texas, Florida, Georgia,

North Carolina and Virginia have been the

states driving the region’s growth during

the early part of the 21st century, and

that pattern will only continue over the

next 20 years. Cumulatively these states

accounted for about 83 percent of the

South’s overall population growth since

2000 (see Figure 2). The only loser in the

region was the Katrina-impacted Louisiana,

but Mississippi, West Virginia, Delaware

and the District of Columbia didn’t exactly

burn with new growth.

In order to capitalize on future growth

patterns in the region it is important to

understand the components of popula-

tion growth. Four dynamics determine

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FIGURE 1 • POPUlATION GROWTH FROm 2000 TO 2006 by CENSUS REGION AND DIvISIONSthe overall population growth patterns a

region will experience in the future. The

natural or endogenous growth in popula-

tion a region experiences, which is equal

to the number of births occurring from

existing residents minus the number of

resident deaths that offset those births,

the number of U.S. residents moving into

the region from other parts of the country,

or internal migration, and the number of

international migrants moving into the

region from outside the country. For each

state in the South, Figure 3 summarizes

these components of population change

from 2000 to 2006.

Clearly from 2000 to 2006 Texas

won hands down when it came to both

natural increases in population and

increases resulting from international

migration and resident births. Florida was

the recipient of an enormous amount of

internal migration from other regions of

the country but was only second to Texas

in terms of international migration. States

like Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina

had a slightly more balanced mix of

growth components, but still benefited

substantially from the an influx of resi-

dents from other regions of the country.

Population ProjectionsFor snowsports to tap into the population

growth in the southern region it is vitally

important to focus on the specific market

areas that will generate the most visita-

tion over the next 20 years. Many of the

destination guests we will be able to draw

from the region are transplants from other

parts of the country with preexisting affini-

ties to the sport. Fortunately the internal

migration of residents from other regions

flowing into the South is a phenomenon

that is generally a positive one for skiing

and snowboarding. More than 24 percent

of those who migrated to the South from

other regions of the U.S. between 2005

and 2006 had at least a Bachelor’s degree,

FIGURE 2 • POPUlATION GROWTH FROm 2000 TO 2006 by STATE

FIGURE 3 • COmPONENTS OF POPUlATIONGROWTH FROm 2000 TO 2006 by STATE


and almost 11 percent had a postgraduate

or professional degree. Almost 30 percent

of these internal transplants were 20 to 29

years old, and almost 25 percent were 30 to

44 years old. And while job growth in the

rest of the United States averaged roughly

5.6 percent from 2000 to 2006, job growth

in the South averaged about 8 percent,

with the strongest pockets of growth in the

South Atlantic division.

In short, southern transplants are

generally young, well educated, and typi-

cally have slightly higher average household

incomes than existing southern residents.

But reaching out to these households will

represent a challenge, not only because of

their geographic isolation from the sport,

but also because of the enormous number

of activities competing for their leisure

time. Golfing, boating and beach trips all

uniquely tap a limited pool of free time

for residents of the South in much more

powerful ways than for residents of other

regions of the country.

Over the next 20 years population

growth is projected to be robust, with

Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia

and Texas leading the pack. And while

states like Florida will lead the geriatric

revolution, the South as a whole will retain

enough individuals in their prime skiing/

snowboarding years to continue to make the

region an important generator of visitation

(see Figure 4). Not surprisingly the current

minority population will inevitably become

the majority quite rapidly in states like Texas

and Florida (see Figure 5). But as we have

learned from previous installments in this

series, affinity for snowsports is less about

ethnic or cultural identity than about a love

of the outdoors and a desire to explore the

experiences downhill snowsports can offer

both families and individuals.

Opportunities and DisparitiesThe strong growth in the South is

tempered by a glaring disparity that

must be tackled. Currently more than

36 percent of the U.S. population lives in

the South, but only about 14.9 percent of

skiers and snowboarders call the region

home (see Figure 6). In addition, 47

percent of southern skiing/snowboarding

households have annual household

incomes of $100,000 or more in compar-

ison to only 16 percent of the general

household population (see Figure 7).

Both the population and income distri-

bution disparity between core southern

skiers and riders and southern residents

represents a marketing obstacle for growing

the snowsports industry. In order to capi-

talize on the future growth that will occur in

this region we must do more to encourage

greater skier/snowboarder day participation

levels and more destination trips out of the

region. The first step in achieving this goal is

to understand where our existing strengths

are in the region. These geographic strengths

correlate with the demographic and house-

hold characteristics of individuals likely to

be most effectively tapped as both day and

destination guests.

FIGURE 4 • AGE DISTRIbUTION OF THE SOUTH FROm 2000 TO 2030

FIGURE 5 • PERCENT mINORITy by 2025


FIGURE 6 • DISTRIbUTION OF SkIERS/SNOWbOARDERS

vS. U.S. RESIDENTS: 2006/07

FIGURE 7 • HOUSEHOlD

INCOmE DISTRIbUTION OF SOUTHERN

SkIERS/SNOWbOARDERS

vS SOUTHERN RESIDENTS: 2006/07

FIGURE 8 • AmOUNT OF SkIER/SNOWbOARDER

vISITS ACCOUNTED FOR by STATE: 2006/07


mSA Percent of Percent of U.S. Percent Skier/Snowboarder Population in 2006 Growth from visits in 2006/07 2006 Population 2000 to 2006 TEXAS Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 0.66% 1.85% 5,539,949 16.8% Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 1.16% 2.01% 6,003,967 15.5% San Antonio 0.21% 0.65% 1,942,217 13.0% Austin-Round Rock 0.38% 0.51% 1,513,565 13.0% El Paso 0.03% 0.25% 736,310 8.0% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 0.01% 0.23% 700,634 22.0% FLORIDA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater 0.33% 0.90% 2,697,731 12.2% Orlando-Kissimmee 0.26% 0.66% 1,984,855 19.8% Jacksonville 0.23% 0.43% 1,277,997 13.5% Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice 0.09% 0.23% 682,833 15.2% Cape Coral-Fort Myers 0.03% 0.19% 571,344 28.7% GEORGIA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta 0.81% 1.72% 5,138,223 20.0% Augusta-Richmond County 0.04% 0.17% 523,249 4.6% VIRGINIA Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News 0.42% 0.55% 1,649,457 4.4% Richmond 0.37% 0.40% 1,194,008 8.5% NORTH Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord 0.29% 0.53% 1,583,016 18.1%CAROLINA Raleigh-Cary 0.34% 0.33% 994,551 23.7% Greensboro-High Point 0.14% 0.23% 685,378 6.2% DC/ Washington-Baltimore 2.65% 2.65% 7,948,805 7.7%MARYLAND

TOTAL 8.5% 14.5% 43,368,089

TAblE 1: PERCENT OF SkIER/SNOWbOARDER vISITS GENERATED by kEy mSAS

The Geography of GrowthAs can be seen in Figure 8, the South

Atlantic cumulatively accounted for about

8.6 percent of all skier/snowboarder visi-

tation in 2006/07, the East South Central

accounted for about 1.5 percent, and the

West South Central about 4.0 percent.

Again, six states were the major players in

terms of skier/snowboarder visitation gener-

ation. Each of these states are projected to

grow rapidly by 2030, but to better under-

stand future growth opportunities one must

drill down to the level of the Metropolitan

Statistical Area (MSAs) within each state in

order to target the markets with the greatest

growth potential for snowsports.

The United States Office of

Management and Budget currently

defines 361 MSAs in the country. What

generally defines a MSA is a core area

containing a substantial population

ence only moderate growth by 2030,

with significant declines in the District of

Columbia. Clearly more needs to be done

to penetrate key markets in Texas and

Florida down to the census tract level.

Favorable Age DemographicsBeyond geography an important compo-

nent of the Model for Growth has been

targeting specific cohorts of skiers and

riders relative to their density in the general

population. Fortunately the comparison

of the age profiles of South Atlantic, East

South Central and West South Central

skiers and riders versus the underlying

population distributions reveals a relatively

healthy mix of GenY and GenX partici-

pates bolstered by strong teen participation

(see Figures 9, 10 and 11). A weakness

inherent in the historic demographic

profiles is the under representation of

nucleus, together with adjacent commu-

nities that are economically and socially

related to that core. As stated above,

the story of future southern snowsports

growth is all about five key states: Texas,

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and

Virginia. If one can understand the MSAs

within those states that have the greatest

potential for future growth, marketing

dollars can be much more effectively

allocated in order to increase visitation.

For the largest MSAs within these

states, Table 1 shows the percent of total

visitation drawn from each area rela-

tive to the population present in the

respective MSAs. Only the Washington

D.C./Baltimore combined MSA draws

skier/snowboarder visitation propor-

tional to its overall contribution to the

population of the country, and unfor-

tunately this area is projected to experi-


FIGURE 10 • AGE PROFIlE OF SOUTH ATlANTIC POPUlATION vS. EAST SOUTH CENTRAl SkIER/SNOWbOARDER POPUlATION

FIGURE 9 • AGE PROFIlE OF SOUTH ATlANTIC POPUlATION vS SOUTH ATlANTIC SkIER/SNOWbOARDER POPUlATIONskiers and riders aged 13 and under. More

will be done in the future to quantify this

important participation segment in the

South and other regions.

ConclusionsAs can be seen from the above discussion,

the opportunities of the South are tremen-

dous. However overcoming geographic

isolation and competing leisure time

pursuits are one of the primary obstacles

for pulling more participation out of

the region. Resorts in the Southeastern

region, as defined by the Kottke End of

Season Survey, have the unique task, and

opportunity, to introduce many southern

residents to snowsports. These resorts

can benefit tremendously from the

population growth that will occur in the

region. At the same time western resorts

will increasingly find themselves battling

for destination market share amongst

affluent southern skiers and boarders who

wish to head north and west. By 2020

these skiers will generally fall into the

45- to 55-year age range and have a set

of expectations regarding the destination

snowsports trip that will be significantly

different from the southern skier/snow-

boarder from 15 years ago. As a sport we

must continue to reposition the product

and the destination experience to map on

to the needs of these guests.

For the next article in our series we

will turn our attention to a region the

industry has traditionally considered to

be the breeding ground for skiing and

snowboarding; an area with strong cultural

connections to the sport and an abundance

of small areas at which young people and

their families have traditionally formed

strong bonds with snowsports as a life long

pursuit. Ironically it is also a region that has

not focused on researching the dynamics

of its core participant base as much as

underlying demographic changes would

warrant: The Midwest. n

FIGURE 11 • AGE PROFIlE OF SOUTH ATlANTIC POPUlATION vS. WEST SOUTH CENTRAl SkIER/SNOWbOARDER POPUlATION.


In this article, the fourth installment

of our five-part series analyzing the

future of snowsports and the demo-

graphics of opportunity, we turn

our attention to a region that typically

accounts for almost 19 percent of the

total skier/snowboarder visits generated

in the U.S., and currently accounts for

about 22 percent of the U.S. population.

Twelve states make up the region and

the Census Bureau divides it into two

divisions: The East North Central divi-

sion includes Ohio, Indiana, Michigan,

Illinois and Wisconsin; and the West

North Central division includes Missouri,

Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South

Dakota and Kansas.

Population DynamicsGrowth in the Midwest region has

essentially been flat over the past six

years, with the total population only

growing by 2.7 percent from 2000 to

2006 (see Figure 1). About 70 percent

of the region’s approximately 67 million

inhabitants reside in the East North

Central division, and almost 37 percent

live in Ohio or Illinois. Currently minori-

ties make up about 20 percent of the

population relative to the 37 percent they

account for in the rest of the U.S. Looking

out to 2020 we see the region will only

experience about a 4.9 percent growth in

total population from today’s population

estimates, and only about a 6.8 percent

growth in total population by 2030.

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FutureDemographics

This results in a net gain of about 4.5

million individuals over a 23- year

timeframe, with roughly 75 percent

of that cumulative growth increment

being generated by minorities, and

about 46 percent of minority popula-

tion growth being driven by increases

in the Hispanic population.

By 2030, many of the states that

gain the most in population from 2010

are ones with current small population

bases (see Figure 2). Rural agricultural

areas in Iowa and Nebraska, as well

as the declining industrial centers of

Ohio, are particularly challenged in

this region as migration to metropol-

itan areas within and out of region, as

well as changing economic forces, have

largely isolated these areas from the

most robust growth components of the

21st century economy.

As alluded to above, much of the

potential population growth that could

occur in the Midwest is suppressed by

resident out-migration to other regions

of the country. According to the Census

Bureau, from 2005 to 2006 about

568,000 individuals moved out of the

region to elsewhere in the country.

About 37 percent of those individuals

were between the ages of 20 and 34 (see

Figure 3). From 2000 to 2006, seven of

the 12 states in the region experienced

significant out-migration. The problem

has been most severe in Ohio, Michigan

and Illinois, with Ohio’s out-migra-

tion rate running at nearly twice that

of other states in the region. Missouri,

Wisconsin and Minnesota were the only

states in the region to show net gains

from individuals moving into these

states during this timeframe.

As we saw in the previous analysis

of the Northeast, this pattern of out-

migration of the young results in what’s

often referred to as a “brain drain”

that has the potential to increase over

FIGURE 1 • PoPULATIon GRowTh FRoM 2000 To 2006 by CEnSUS REGIon AnD DIvISIonS

FIGURE 2 • PERCEnT ChAnGE In PoPULATIon FRoM 2010 To 2030by STATE


time and amplify the affluence of the

Western and Southern regions as young

Midwesterners move there in order to

pursue career and educational oppor-

tunities. One can see initial evidence

for this trend by observing that the

Midwest has the lowest percentage of the

overall population with a professional

or doctoral degree at just 2.3 percent

(see Figure 4). About 8.9 percent of all

Midwestern residents have a Master’s

degree or higher, yet in contrast, a whop-

ping 38 percent of Midwestern skiers

and snowboarders have reached at least

this educational milestone. Because we

draw as an industry disproportionately

from this segment of the population any

downward trend in the number of indi-

viduals in these educational categories

disproportionately negatively impacts a

region’s overall potential for skier/snow-

boarder growth.

The educational gap can also be

seen in the overall household income

distribution of Midwestern skiers and

snowboarders versus the overall popu-

lation of Midwestern households (see

Figure 5). While still affluent relative

to the general population, Midwestern

skiers and snowboarders have far more

For no other

region is local

beginner

conversion as

important an

issue as in the

Midwest.

FIGURE 4 • PERCEnT oF RESIDEnTS wITh EIThER A PRoFESSIonALoR DoCToRAL DEGREE: 2006

FIGURE 3 • AGE PRoFILE oF MIDwESTERn oUT-MIGRAnTS by AGE GRoUP: 2005 To 2006


individuals in the lower income catego-

ries than other regions and, relative to

other regions, about 13 percent fewer

participants in the $100,000 per year or

more income category.

A more thorough analysis of

these findings by age reveals that the

likely income and age threshold for

Midwesterners to become viable and

sustainable out-of-region destination

guests is at the 35 and older age range, and

at the $100,000 or more per year income

break. From an out-of-region destination

resort’s perspective, that isn’t to say these

individuals should be the exclusive focus

for your marketing efforts, in fact, it might

suggest that given the underlying popula-

tion dynamics of the region some resorts

may be in danger of pricing themselves

out of this market if the pool of affluent

Midwesterners shrinks significantly over

time. Conversely, opportunities exist for

Midwestern resort operators to invest in

infrastructure and guest services so as to

provide skiing and snowboarding expe-

riences at price points and amenity levels

that might help to retain more visits

within the region.

outlook and Areas of opportunityDespite relatively stagnant growth,

the Midwest still represents a signifi-

cant area of opportunity for the snow-

sports industry. Middle America, and

the roughly 120 operating resorts in the

upper Midwest, has a long history of

being one of the core breeding grounds

for new destination skiers and snow-

boarders for the snowsports industry. On

average about 3.3 million visits flow out

of this region each season to other areas

of the country, with about 75 percent

of those visits exported to the Rocky

Mountain region.

These patterns will likely remain

stable over the next 12 years, and as the

FIGURE 5 • PERCEnT oF hoUSEhoLDS In AnnUAL hoUSEhoLD InCoME CATEGoRy: SkIERS/SnowboARDERS vS. MIDwEST hoUSEhoLDS

FIGURE 6 • AGE PRoFILE oF MIDwESTERn SkIERS AnD SnowboARDERS vS. oThER REGIonS CoMbInED


region exports both visits and future

residents, the quality of the beginner

experience obtained at resorts oper-

ating in the Midwest is vitally linked to

the health of the destination and local

markets in other regions of the country.

This is especially true with regard to

the youth component of the market.

No other region has as strong a youth

participation profile as the Midwest (see

Figure 6). Strong school programs and

the proximity of many small resorts to

large urban areas in the upper Midwest

help explain this relative strength in the

youth market (see Figure 7), but higher

quality on-mountain research is essen-

tial in precisely quantifying and tracking

this strength over time.

In analyzing the areas to focus on

in the Midwest we again turn to the

concept of the MSA. As mentioned in

the last article, the United States Office

of Management and Budget currently


FIGURE 7 • AGE PRoFILE oF MIDwESTERn SkIERS AnDSnowboARDERS vS. AGE PRoFILE oF PoPULATIon

generally defines an MSA is a core area




related to that core. For the Midwest,

20 MSAs in nine states will define the

future of snowsports in the region (see

Table 1). Together these Midwestern

MSAs account for more than 15 percent

of all visits generated in the U.S. and

about 83 percent of the visits generated

by Midwesterners overall; this despite

accounting for only about 56 percent

of the Midwest’s population and 12.6

percent of the total U.S. population.

ConclusionsGiven the geographies of the MSAs

listed above, with some exceptions,

very few of the participants living

in these areas had their first down-

hill snowsports experience at a resort

outside the region. They were born

and bred on native slopes and evolved

into active local participants and avid

destination skiers and snowboarders

as a direct result of those critical first

days in the sport. For no other region is

local beginner conversion as important

an issue as in the Midwest.

The Midwest’s current conversion

rate hasn’t budged since first measured

at 15 percent during the 2004/05

season. It is one of the lowest conver-

sion rates in the country and reflects a

strategic weakness for the region and

the entire industry. This, combined with

some of the lowest average likelihood

to recommend scores in the industry,

suggests room for improvement, both in

terms of the quality of the experience at

the resort, and the quality of measure-

ment for resort operators. It is vital that

resorts in the Midwest take advantage

of the free demographic, economic and

visitation analyses provided by NSAA.

As mentioned in previous articles, we

have a 12-year window as an industry

during which we need to strategi-

cally and aggressively plan to meet our

growth goals. If these goals are to be met

we must maintain our momentum and

continuously track the participants, the

revenue and the usage patterns.

For the next, and final article of our

five-part series, we look to the West: a

region experiencing enormous popula-

tion growth and one with bright promise

for the future. Nonetheless, challenges

loom. Striking a balance between desti-

nation and day visitation, maintaining

yields, transportation issues, bed base

utilization, maintaining capital improve-

ment investment to meet growth in

demand, and the future of the second

home market in many key destination

areas will all pose significant challenges

for the future. All issues that are inher-

ently linked to the demographics and

health of the destination markets in the

other regions we have discussed. n


TAbLE 1 • PERCEnT oF SkIER/SnowboARDER vISITS GEnERATED by ToP 20 MSAS

Percent of U.S. visits Generated by Midwesterners in

2006/07

Percent of Midwestern visits Generated by Midwesterners in

2006/07

Percent of Midwest

Population in 2006

Percent of U.S.

Population2006

Population2000

Population

Percent Growth

from 2000 to 2006

MINNESOTA Minneapolis-St.Paul 3.37% 18.50% 4.80% 1.06% 3,175,041 2,968,806 6.95%Duluth-Superior 0.37% 2.00% 0.41% 0.09% 274,244 275,486 -0.45%Rochester 0.47% 1.17% 0.27% 0.06% 179,573 163,618 9.75%

KANSAS Wichita 0.17% 0.97% 0.90% 0.20% 592,126 571,166 3.67%

ILLINOIS Chicago-Gary-Kenosha 2.09% 11.40% 14.37% 3.18% 9,505,748 9,098,316 4.48%

INDIANA Indianapolis 0.23% 1.23% 2.52% 0.56% 1,666,032 1,525,104 9.24%

MICHIGAN Detroit-AnnArbor-Flint 1.63% 8.92% 7.95% 1.76% 5,254,979 5,211,593 0.83%GrandRapids-Muskegon 0.84% 4.60% 1.44% 0.32% 949,315 910,682 4.24%Saginaw-BayCity 0.66% 3.64% 0.48% 0.11% 314,690 320,196 -1.72%Lansing-EastLansing 0.14% 0.79% 0.69% 0.15% 454,044 447,728 1.41%

OHIO Cleveland-Akron 1.12% 6.07% 4.26% 0.94% 2,815,098 2,843,103 -0.99%Columbus 0.35% 1.74% 2.61% 0.58% 1,725,570 1,612,694 7.00%Cincinnati-Hamilton 0.35% 1.50% 3.18% 0.70% 2,104,218 2,009,632 4.71%Toledo 0.14% 0.76% 0.99% 0.22% 653,695 659,188 -0.83%Mansfield 0.14% 0.75% 0.19% 0.04% 127,010 128,852 -1.43%

WISCONSIN Madison 1.02% 5.62% 0.82% 0.18% 543,022 501,774 8.22%Milwaukee-Racine 0.87% 4.75% 2.58% 0.57% 1,706,077 1,689,572 0.98%

MISSOURI KansasCity 0.81% 4.46% 2.98% 0.66% 1,967,405 1,836,038 7.15%St.Louis 0.36% 2.00% 4.23% 0.94% 2,796,368 2,698,687 3.62%

SOUTH DAKOTA RapidCity 0.31% 1.62% 0.18% 0.04% 118,763 112,818 5.27%

TOTALFORKEYMSAs 15.44% 82.49% 55.84% 12.36% 36,923,018 35,585,053 3.76%


In this fifth and final article in our

series analyzing future U.S. popu-

lation trends and the impact on

the ski industry, we turn our atten-

tion to the 13 states that make

up the Western census region. The U.S.

Census Bureau divides the region into the

Mountain and Pacific divisions. NSAA’s

divisions are very similar, save for the fact

that Nevada and Arizona are included in

the Pacific West Kottke division and not

in the U.S. Census’ Pacific division. Of

the 485 resorts currently operating in

the Unites States, 172 are located in the

West. Collectively these resorts account

for about 56 percent of the total visita-

tion generated in the United States. The

Rocky Mountain region is very reliant on

a strong destination visitor base, with

about 45 percent of the region’s total

visits imported from elsewhere in the

country (see Figure 1). In contrast, the

Pacific West relies on a strong local skier

and rider base that generates almost 90

percent of the region’s visitation.

Both divisions in the West rely heavily

on overnight visitation. Last season about

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DemographicsFIGURE 2 • PoPUlATIon GRoWTH FRom 2000 To 2006 by CEnSUS REGIon AnD DIvISIonS

62 percent of visitors to resorts in the

Rocky Mountain Kottke region were

overnight guests and about 42 percent of

visitors to the Pacific West Kottke region

were overnight visitors. And while recent

strong increases in international visitation

have been encouraging, that visitation

channel doesn’t likely represent a consis-

tent source of growth the industry can rely

on long-term. Achieving the revenue and

visitation growth goals for the region will

require a strong focus on building up the

domestic within-region and out-of-region

destination visitor base. Fortunately for

the West, growth in the region’s popula-

tion will likely make this mission easier

than in other regions of the country.

Population DynamicsResidents of the West account for about

23 percent of the total U.S. population

FIGURE 1 • oRIGIn oF WESTERn SkIER/SnoWboARDER vISITS by nSAA koTTkE REGIon: 2006/07


and about 18 percent of the active U.S.

skier and snowboarder population.

These participants generate about 35

percent of the total skier/snowboarder

visits in any given season. Over the

past six years, population growth in the

region has been strong, with a cumula-

tive 9.3 percent increase in the popula-

tion from 2000 to 2006 (see Figure 2).

On average, each year about 400,000

international immigrants move into the

region, and about 450,000 Americans

move to the West from other areas of the

country. Nevada and Arizona have both

experienced dramatic growth during

this timeframe, with 23 and 19 percent

population increases, respectively.

From 2010 to 2030, the West is

expected to grow by about 28 percent

from its present population base. That

translates into about 20 million new

residents in the West. By 2030, most

states in the West will have experienced

strong population growth, however

significant differences exist at the state

level. Nevada and Arizona will continue

to experience tremendous increases in

population, while states like Wyoming,

New Mexico and Montana will experi-

ence only moderate increases. In fact

growth in Nevada and Arizona alone will

account for about 5.7 million of the 20

million new residents living in the region

(see Figure 3).

Not surprisingly, and as has been

observed in other regions, the number

of persons in the population 65 years of

age or older increases substantially. By

2030, the number of individuals 65 and

older will more than double from today’s

number. This represents a significant

challenge for Western resorts in terms

of both utilization of product and labor.

Encouragingly the population dynamics

in the West are actually more favorable

than in other regions. Projections show

there will be sizable increases in the core

FIGURE 3 • PERCEnT CHAnGE In PoPUlATIon FRom 2010 To 2030 by STATE

FIGURE 4 • PERCEnT CHAnGE In PoPUlATIon FRom 2010 To 2030 by AGE GRoUP

FIGURE 5 • PERCEnT oF PoPUlATIon GRoWTHACCoUnTED FoR by mInoRITIES FRom 2010 To 2020


skiing and riding age groups, with 25- to

44-year-olds still making up a substan-

tial portion of the overall population by

2030 (see Figure 4).

From 2010 to 2020, minorities

will drive almost 90 percent of popula-

tion growth in the West (see Figure 5).

As America becomes more diverse so to

will snowsports, and the rate at which

this transformation takes place will be

highly regionalized. Areas in the Pacific

Southwest are already seeing very broad

participation from many different ethnic

groups. Currently anywhere from 9 to 21

percent of visits in the West are accounted

for by minorities (see Figure 6). As high-

lighted in past articles, future growth

in the minority base will be driven by

growth in the segments of the population

that match the educational and socioeco-

nomic levels typical of current snows-

ports participants, regardless of race.

The relative affluence of the West is

a strong positive for the region. About

19 percent of skiing and snowboarding

households have annual incomes of

$150,000 or more. In contrast, only

about 8.5 percent of the general popu-

lation in the West has an annual house-

hold income of $150,000 or more.

Overall, about 62 percent of skiing and

snowboarding households have annual

incomes in excess of $50,000, while

a notable 52 percent of Western house-

holds are at this income level or higher

(see Figure 7). This generally high level

of affluence in the West is an important

component of growth for snowsports

and needs to be carefully tracked at the

market level by resort operators. For

instance, at the metropolitan level, afflu-

ence is expected to increase in areas like

the Front Range of Colorado, where by

2011 it is projected there will be about

a 34 percent increase in the number

of households with annual incomes of

$100,000 or more.

FIGURE 6 • PERCEnT non-CAUCASIAn In SkIER/SnoWboARDERPoPUlATIon by nSAA koTTkE REGIonS: 2006/07

FIGURE 7 • PERCEnT oF HoUSEHolDS In AnnUAl HoUSEHolDInComE CATEGoRy: WEST SkIERS/SnoWboARDERS vS. WESTHoUSEHolDS


FIGURE 8 • PERCEnT oF SkIER/SnoWboARDER vISITS GEnERATED by ToP 15 mSAS vS. PERCEnT oF WEST PoPUlATIon

FIGURE 9 • AGE PRoFIlE oF WEST SkIERS AnD SnoWboARDERS vS. oTHER REGIonS

In analyzing the markets to focus

on in the West, we again turn to the

concept of the Metropolitan Statistical

Area (MSA). As mentioned in the last

few articles, the United States Office

of Management and Budget currently


generally defines an MSA is a core area




related to that core. For the West, 15

MSAs in nine states accounted for almost

27 percent of the total skier/snowboarder

visits in 2006/07 (see Figure 8). Together

these Western MSAs account for about

52 percent of the population in the

West and about 12 percent of the total

U.S. population. Strong growth in these

markets bodes well for Western day and

regional overnight visitation.


ConclusionsWith some exceptions, the future of

snowsports in the West looks bright.

Population dynamics are favorable to

increased levels of participation and

visitation (see Figure 9 and 10) and

the core participant base still has many

years of skiing and riding ahead of them.

That said, the region still relies heavily

on destination visits imported from out

of region and must aggressively market

to the South, Midwest and Northeast.

Competition for these guests by Western

resorts will be intense. The destina-

tion guest’s perception of your resort’s

snow quality, overall value of experi-

ence, lodging choices and services and

amenities are all vital components of

the vacation decision process. Resorts

must pay increased attention to how

aligned their marketing and operations

plans are with their core customer’s

hierarchy of needs.

Within the Western region key

metropolitan areas we will continue to

see growth in population and affluence,

but resort operators will find competi-

tion within specific Western markets

fierce. When competing for within-

region guests, differentiating your resort

on factors other than price will be an

important long-term strategy in building

your brand, maintaining profitability

and increasing the likelihood of return.

The big roadblock in achieving this goal

in the West may well be labor. As energy

extraction, mining and the high cost

of employee housing take away valu-

able labor pools from snowsports, the

manpower required to run a resort hasn’t

diminished much. In fact, many

of the resort-related hotel proper-

ties and second home developments

that have been built over the past

five years have promised such high

levels of amenities and services that it

is difficult to see how the guest’s expec-

tations will be met over the next 10 to

15 years. So while the overall outlook in

the West is positive in terms of visitation,

we will see resorts continue to struggle to

maintain service levels while simultane-

ously achieving increasing efficiencies. n

Our entire five-part series, Future Demographics, U.S. Population Trends and the

Impact on the Ski Industry is available for download at the

NSAA Journal pages on the member side of nsaa.org.

FIGURE 10 • AGE PRoFIlE oF WEST SkIERS AnD SnoWboARDERS vS. AGE PRoFIlE oF WEST PoPUlATIon

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Future Demographics - NSAAFuture Demographics By Nate Fristoe Director, RRC Associates I Stockphoto.com guaranteed, but the good news is that our efforts to grow the sport over the