Future Civil Zengineering 2025

8/12/2019 Future Civil Zengineering 2025

1/43

The Future of Civil Engineering ina Transforming World

Evan Vlachos

Sociology & Civil Engineering

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, CO USA 80523email: [email protected]


2/43

The Future of Civil Engineering

in a Transforming World

1.0 THE TRANSFORMING ENVIRONMENT

2.0 TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

3.0 PREPARING THE CIVIL ENGINEERS OF THE 21ST CENTURY

4.0 SHIFTING PARADIGMS IN THEORY & PRACTICE

5.0 SPECULATING ABOUT THE FUTURE


3/43


4/43

THE GATHERING STORM

FOUR BILLION MORE PEOPLE ON THE WAY

THE WELLS ARE RUNNING DRY

INFRASTRUCTURE FAILS TO KEEP UP

WASTE JUST KEEPS PILLING UP

TRANSPORTATION DEMANDS TAKE OFF


5/43

Premises of Foresight

1. Trend is not destiny


6/43



2. Those who live by the crystal ball are bound

to eat groundglass


7/43



2. Those who live by the crystal ball are bound

to eat groundglass

3. It is better to be approximately right

rather than precisely wrong


8/43


9/43

INTERLOCKING CRISES

CLIMATIC SHIFTS

MEGARUPTURES

METABOLISM

SOCIO-POLITICAL CONTEXT

TRANSBOUNDARY DEPENDENCIES

FAST PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL

DEVELOPMENT


10/43


11/43


12/43


13/43


14/43


15/43

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A POST-INDUSTRIAL

SOCIETY

1. From goods to services

tertiary economy

2. Emphasis on knowledge

education, expertise

3. More social planning

new planning techniques4. Growing Technocracy

skills and education


16/43

THE TELEMATIC SOCIETY

DIMINUTION

DIGITALIZATION

COMPUTERIZATION

INSTANTIZATION

GLOBALIZATION

[OF COMMUNICATION]

CUSTOMIZATION

AUTOMATION

ROBOTIZATION


17/43

COMPLEXIFICATION

INTERDEPENDENCE

VULNERABILITY

RISK MANAGEMENT


18/43


19/43


20/43


21/43


22/43

TYPES OF ENGINEERS

PAST

FUTURE

PRACTICING

ENTEPRENEURIAL

SYSTEMS ENGINEER

RISK MANAGER


23/43

CHALLENGES IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

A. WHO WOULD BE RECRUITED AND MAINTAINED?

B. WHAT SHOULD BE TAUGHT?

C. WHAT WILL BE THE ENGINEERING PRACTICE?


24/43


25/43

Influence Diagram


26/43


27/43


28/43

Summary of Engineering Role Changes

Current and Past Emerging


29/43


30/43


31/43


32/43


33/43


34/43


35/43


36/43


37/43


38/43


39/43

Archetypal Worldviews


40/43

Worldview Antecedents Philosophy Motto

Conventional WorldsMarket

Policy Reform

Barbarization

Breakdown

Fortress World

Great Transitions

Eco-communalism

New Sustainability

Paradigm

Muddling Through

Smith

Keynes

Bundtland

Malthus

Hobbes

Morris & social

utopiansGhandhi

Your brother-in-law (probably

Market optimism;hidden & enlightened

hand

Policy stewardship

Existential gloom;

population/resource

catastrophe

Social Chaos;

nasty nature of man

Pastoral romance;human goodness;

evil of industrialism

Sustainability asprogressive globalsocial evolution

No grand philosophies

Dont worry, be happy

Growth, environment,

equity through bettertechnology & management

The end is coming

Order through strongleaders

Small is beautiful

Human solidarity, new

values, the art of living

Que sera, sera

Mill

Source: Great Transition [SEI, 2002]

h li i f f i


41/43

The Politics of Transformation

Building Data / DSS

Expanding Knowledge / Judgement

Creating Institutions / Capacity Building

Mobilize Resources

Articulate Values

The 3 Rs


42/43

The 3 R s

Rethinking new paradigms

Reorganizing organizational mobilization

Retooling new skills and resources


43/43

Documents

Future Civil Zengineering 2025