Future Army Canada

8/7/2019 Future Army Canada

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THE FUTURE SECURITYTHE FUTURE SECURITYENVIRONMENT: IMPLICATIONS FORENVIRONMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR

THE CANADIAN ARMYTHE CANADIAN ARMY

PETER GIZEWSKIPETER GIZEWSKI

STRATEGIC ANALYSTSTRATEGIC ANALYST

DRDC/CORADRDC/CORA

DLCD/LAND FUTURESDLCD/LAND FUTURES

AUGUST 2007AUGUST 2007


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1) BACKGROUND1) BACKGROUND

Study of Future Security Environment - Central

Supports conceive piece of Army development process(Sets context).

Supports scenario development, war gaming,experimentation and ultimately force development andemployment (through continuous monitoring of

developments in security environment domestic andinternational).


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1)1) BACKGROUNDBACKGROUNDcontd.contd.

Methods:

Historical Analysis. Trend Analysis and examination of

alternative futures.

Scenario Development and Mind Mapping

(Brainstorming Exercises).


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1) BACKGROUND1) BACKGROUNDcontd.contd.

LAND OPERATIONS

2015ADAPTIVEDISTRIBUTED

OPERATIONS

THE FORCE EMPLOYMENTCONCEPT FOR CANADAS ARMY

OF TOMORROW

Products:Products:


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Canadas Armyof Tomorrow

Concepts for LandOperations 2015

Major Andrew B. Godefroy CDPh.D.

Editor

1) BACKGROUND1) BACKGROUNDcont.d.cont.d.

Products:

Products:contd.contd.


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2) FUTURE SECURITY2) FUTURE SECURITY

ENVIRONMENT:ENVIRONMENT:

Key Findings:

Environment characterized by continual -- often

rapid -- change.

High volatility and uncertainty.

Prediction difficult. Confounds military planning.

Some trends clear.

Indicate future threats and character of responsesneeded to address them.


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Power Shifts in the

International System

State Weakness and Collapse

Resource Scarcities

Globalization Rapid Scientific &

Technological Innovation

Demographic Shifts

Disease

Rising Significance of

Non-State Actors

2) FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

Identity & Distributional

Issues

Trends:Trends:


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2) FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT2) FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENTcontd.contd.

Rough

Status Quo

Competing

Power Blocs

Global

Community

Post-Westphalian

World

Possible Futures:Possible Futures:


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3) FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT3) FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENTcontd.contd.

Armed conflicts wArmed conflicts will beill be primarilyprimarily::

-- identity and/or deprivationidentity and/or deprivation--based,based,

-- intraintra-- rather than interrather than inter--state,state,-- asymmetric/irregular and protracted rather than symmetric.asymmetric/irregular and protracted rather than symmetric.

-- SouthSouth--North or SouthNorth or South--South in origin, and:South in origin, and:

-- will occur in complexwill occur in complex ---- chiefly urbanchiefly urban ---- terrain.terrain.

Humanitarian crises and complex emergencies especially indeveloping world will continue.

Probable Challenges:Probable Challenges:


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GlobalNuclear

War

Aid to CivilPower

(Police Ops)

CounterInsurgency

RegionalConventional

War

GlobalConventional

War

LimitedNuclear

War

LocalConventional

War(Civil War)

Conflict but Limited Warfare

PeaceSupport

Infrastructure / Information Warfare

Asymmetric War

Least LikelyMost Likely

High Intensity Ops:

Combined & Joint Ops

Stabilization Ops:

Irregular Warfare

Humanitarian

Ops

3) IMPLICATIONS


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3) IMPLICATIONS3) IMPLICATIONScontd.contd.

Situation notSituation not entirelyentirely new (i.e. terrorism,new (i.e. terrorism,

irregular and guerrilla warfare, limited warsirregular and guerrilla warfare, limited wars

have long history).have long history).

But today, all actorsBut today, all actors small in particularsmall in particular ----

more empowered to conduct lethal conflict thanmore empowered to conduct lethal conflict than

ever before (result of globalization and itsever before (result of globalization and itsconsequences).consequences).


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AdversariesAdversaries -- increased capacity to organize, networkincreased capacity to organize, networkand to mount challengesand to mount challenges -- moral, political and militarymoral, political and military

(e.g. cell phones, internet, inexpensive travel,(e.g. cell phones, internet, inexpensive travel,

availability of weapons such as IEDs RPGs, mortarsavailability of weapons such as IEDs RPGs, mortars

and weaponand weapon--related technologies. Much highlyrelated technologies. Much highlyaccessible, off the shelf.).accessible, off the shelf.).

Allows for increased understanding, agility andAllows for increased understanding, agility and

adaptability, reach, lethality and effectiveness (betteradaptability, reach, lethality and effectiveness (bettermeans for exploiting Western strengths and weaknessesmeans for exploiting Western strengths and weaknesses

e.g. democratic values, interconnectedness,e.g. democratic values, interconnectedness,

technological prowess, etc.) .technological prowess, etc.) .


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BattleBattle--space will be increasingly:space will be increasingly:

-- complexcomplex

-- multimulti--dimensional,dimensional,--nonnon--linear,linear,

--uncertain, anduncertain, and

--lethal.lethal.

Conflict will occur onConflict will occur onv

ariet

yv

ariet

y of fronts (moral, socioof fronts (moral, socio--political, economic, military, abroad and at home).political, economic, military, abroad and at home).

EnemiesEnemies greater capacity togreater capacity to rapidlyrapidly adapt to Westernadapt to Western

thinking and strategy.thinking and strategy.



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Governments strained capacity to cope with

challenges (multi-tasking, bureaucratic turf wars,

ministerial agendas, etc.).

International organizations will confer legitimacy, butproblems operationally (UN continues to face major

challenges).

Regional organizations and alliances increase in

credibility.

NGOs/IGOs gain power and credibility.


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.

Poses challenges for governments and forPoses challenges for governments and for

militaries.militaries.

Regarding the Army, it must be more:Regarding the Army, it must be more: adaptiveadaptive

disperseddispersed

networkednetworked

agileagile combat capable, andcombat capable, and

sustainable.sustainable.


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MustMust alsoalso be more capable of harnessing humanbe more capable of harnessing human

resources beyond itself in meeting futureresources beyond itself in meeting future

challenges (i.e. adopt a more joint, interagency,challenges (i.e. adopt a more joint, interagency,multinational and public approach).multinational and public approach).


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4) RESPONSES4) RESPONSES

Land Futures Response: The Adaptive, Dispersed ForceLand Futures Response: The Adaptive, Dispersed Force

Agile : Plan & conduct operations faster than adversary

can react.

Lethal & Non-lethal: Apply lethal & non-lethal effects

Net-enabled: Networked land forces supported by jointsensor, fire support, & C2 systems that provide a level of

SA, mobility, & effects that overwhelm the adversarys

ability to react

Multi-purpose for increased responsiveness, flexibility, &agility, and;

Full Spectrum: Capable of participating in all aspects of

a whole of government campaign conflict spectrum


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Rationale:Rationale:

4) RESPONSEScontd.

In world of rapid change and uncertainty flexibility

and adaptation are essential (in thought andaction).

Provides hedge against uncertainty.Capacity to interact/network with a wide variety of

organizations and agencies over extended distances also

important.


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5) PROGRESS AND NEXT STEPS5) PROGRESS AND NEXT STEPS

Degree Land Futures vision realized still unclear.

Potential Obstacles:

organizational inertia and conservatism,

excessive focus on here and now,

practical and technological hurdles,

budgetary considerations.


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5) PROGRESS AND NEXT STEPS5) PROGRESS AND NEXT STEPS

Endorsed by Army Leadership to be increasinglyintegrated in Doctrine, Procedures and Practices

Process gradual, but underway (e.g. further conceptual

elaboration, experimentation and gaming, doctrinaldevelopment, etc.).

Additional Futures study Future Army: 2040(currently underway).


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6) CONCLUSIONS6) CONCLUSIONSWork on future security environment alive and well

in Canadas Land Force.

Fundamental to capability development and security.

Environment likely to pose significant challenges

Increasingly complex, multi-dimensional.

Specter of able, intelligent, adaptive adversaries

(taking variety of forms, using novel strategies, tactics

and capabilities, on numerous fronts).Must guide CF transformation.

Strongly supports continued investment in Futures

analysis.

Documents

Future Army Canada