John Thompson

Research Fellow, Knowledge, Technology and Society

Institute of Development Studies, UK

Presentation for the Stakeholder Meeting on

‘Rethinking Agriculture in Development’

The Hague, The Netherlands – 14 December 2006

Future Agricultures, Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation:

Searching for the New Agenda

Focus

Challenges and opportunities for ‘pro-poor’ agriculture and rural development

Comparison of donor policies on agriculture emergence of ‘new agenda’

Lessons from the Future Agricultures Consortium focus on Africa

New directions?

Challenges for Pro-Poor Agriculture & Rural Development

Rural poverty, food insecurity and low agricultural growth persists in most low income countries, esp Sub-Saharan Africa

Agriculture must grow faster and benefits must be shared more widely to achieve MDGs

Sharp bifurcations remain poverty is located differentially across and between populations need for poverty mapping and/or typologies/ taxonomies to identify appropriate investments for particular people/systems in particular places?

Bifurcations by Context:Productivity Potential and Market Access

Ag population mostly located in medium and high potential areas,but many with poor market access

Inherent Productivity Potential

High-Medium

Low

Isola

tion

Facto

r Medium to Good Market Access

Poor MarketAccess

MAs

MAs MAs

8%

65%(40% irrig)

23%

4%

Total 31%

Total 12%Total 88%

Total 69%

Source: FA0 2005

567 million 196 million

1,620 million97 million

Productivity BifurcationsStagnation in land and labour productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa

compared to growth in other regions

Cereal Yields (Mt/Ha)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Mt/

Ha

DevelopedCountries

AsiaDeveloping

Latin America& Carribean

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Cereal Yields (Mt/Ha)

Agricultural Labor Productivity

(ag value added per ag worker)

220240260

280300320340

360380

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Asia Developing

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Notes: (1) countries with incomplete data for series excluded; (2) Asia Developing includes India & China; & (3) Sub-Saharan Africa excludes South Africa.

Agricultural Labour Productivity(value added per ag worker)

Source: FAO 2005

Bifurcations in Livelihood Diversification

Advantage of middle-income countries in providing access tonon-ag rural income sources

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1992 2002

Sources of income Mexico rural population

Farm AgWage NonAgL Transfers Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1992 2002

Sources of income Bangladesh rural population

Farm AgWage NonAgL Transfers OtherOff-farm income supports

persistence of family farm

& food securitySource: World Bank 2006

Dynamic Pathways: Five ‘Rural Worlds’

• Rural World 1 – large-scale commercial agricultural households and enterprises

• Rural World 2 – traditional agricultural households and enterprises, not internationally competitive

• Rural World 3 – subsistence agricultural households and micro-enterprises

• Rural World 4 – landless or near-landless rural households and micro-enterprises

• Rural World 5 – chronically poor rural households, many no longer economically active

Sources: OECD 2006; Pimbert, Thompson, et al 2003; Vorley 2002

Three Types of Livelihood Strategy

‘Hanging-in’ – where activities are undertaken to maintain livelihood levels at a ‘maintenance and survival’ level

‘Stepping-up’ – where investments are made in existing activities to increase their returns

‘Stepping-out’ – where existing activities are engaged in to accumulate assets as a basis for investment in alternative, higher-return livelihood activities

Source: Dorward, et al 2006

Donor Policies and Perspectives

World Bank - argues for implementation of unfinished market reforms and emphasises the role of the private sector and NGOs.

DFID - leaves a wider scope for direct state intervention in ‘kick starting’ rural markets, especially in poorly resourced remote rural areas. Strong emphasis on S&T and infrastructure development

OECD - highlights public-private partnerships and the potential of NGOs and CSOs (farmer associations) in service provision and market coordination. Strong emphasis on targeted policy according to the ‘rural worlds’ and prioritises smallholder and landless people

USAID – virtually silent about role of the state and its strategy is defined by its direct interventions in the sector. Its major stakeholder seems to be the smallholder farmer treated as a homogeneous private sector operator

Emerging Agenda forPro-Poor Ag & Rural Development

Enhancing agricultural sector productivity and market opportunities Making Markets and Science and Technology Work for the Poor

Promoting diversification Sustainable Livelihoods (Rural + Urban)

Reducing risk and vulnerability Social Protection + Investments in agriculture + environmental management

Getting to Grips with the Policy Process

Despite enormous energy devoted to finding the ‘right policy models’ in agricultural development, little attention is given to the relationship between these models and the practices and procedures that they are expected to generate or legitimise

We need to look beyond the policy to the actual process – and the politics that drive it

In reality, ‘policy is … what policy does’

Learning Consortium on African AgricultureEthiopia, Kenya, Malawi + UK (IDS-ODI-Imperial)

Critical research and reflection new agricultural agenda

Platform for policy debate + communication hub

Networking among different institutes – north-south / south-south / north-north adding value through synergies

Solid partnerships in Africa linking local debates and contexts to wider discussions

Why now? Lack of focus on local conditions and contexts, and challenges of policy process

Four Themes

1. Policy processes: what political, organisational budgetary processes promote or hinder pathways to pro-poor, agriculture-led growth? What role should different actors, including Ministries of Agriculture, have in this?

2. Agriculture, growth and social protection: what are the trade-offs and complementarities between agricultural growth and social protection objectives?

3. Agricultural commercialisation: what types of commercialisation of agriculture both promote growth and reduce poverty? What institutional and market arrangements are required?

4. Technology & innovation: How can agricultural technology be made to work for the poor? What are the implications for technology choice and priority setting mechanisms?

Where Next?

Deepening the dialogues on future agricultures/ reflections on policy processes in 3 focal countries

Extending the thematic work, linking with emerging issues from country studies

Developing strategies for policy engagement – with DFID (through new policy), AU-NEPAD (through CAADP process), World Bank (WDR 2008), others…

Continuing to develop and promote the website as an information/debating platform

Broadening partnerships – new collaborators, new countries W Africa?

New Directions?

Avoid generalised diagnosis and prescription recognise dynamics and diversity of agri-food systems ‘Rainbow Evolutions’?

Understand interactions of economic, social and political processes

Locate change processes in particular contexts

Focus on politics – avoid simple fixes

Recognise multiple pathways – negotiate trade-offs

Food Politics

“Food is central to the debates on the environment, development, trade and globalisation – but the potential for food choices to change the world should not be overestimated. The idea of saving the world by shopping [for fair trade, organic or local products] is appealing; but tackling climate change, boosting development and reforming the global trade system will require difficult political choices”

-- The Economist

9-15 December 2006

Thank You

www.future-agricultures.org