Future

• Community models– Weather Research Forecast model

• Developmental Test Center (Boulder)– Outreach to academic community– Assessment of new model components

• Major implementation – replaced Eta in June 06

CMI

NCARARW

NCEPNMM

Explicit Cores(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

Mark,By Monday,all of the models should be updated fo Oct. (only two are now) so please remind me to send you a new updated slide.

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Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

Comms Upgrade

2006

North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA– Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days– ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days

• Generates products for– Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia,

media, private sector, …– Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries– End users: forecasts for public distribution

in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)

• Future activities– Adding products (probabilistic in nature)– Incorporating ensemble data from

other centers (e.g., FNMOC)– Unified evaluation/verification procedures

International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products

After bias correction

Raw ensemble

Probabilistic skill extended 1-3 days

NAEFS Products

• NAEFS basic product list– 11 functionalities

• Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc.

– 50 variables• U,v,t,z,CAPE,

precip type, etc.– 7 domains

• Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa• Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via

priority order)– Graphics

• Available on NAWIPS at NCEP Centers– Grids

• NAWIPS• ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod• NDGD in planning phase (Aug 07)

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NAEFS Status• Major accomplishments

– First operational multi-center ensemble system• Running operationally at NCEP/MSC

• Data exchanged in real-time

– Data Availability• Bias corrected products available now

• ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod

• Available on NAWIPS at NCEPcenters

Project participants

• EMC: Bo Cui, Yuejian Zhu, Richard Wobus, Dingchen Hou, Zoltan Toth

• NCO: David Michaud, Brent Gordon, Scott Jacobs, Steve Schotz, Luke Lin

• CPC: Ed Olenic, David Unger, Dan Collins

1-6 days gain in skill due to bias

correction & multi-model

approach

NAEFS Future• Plans to be coordinated with THORPEX

– Links with Phase-2 TIGGE archive and beyond (GIFS)• Expansion

– FNMOC• Experimental data exchange by Dec 06• Preliminary evaluation by Dec 07• Operational implementation by Dec 08 (subject to improved performance)

– UK Met Office,KMA, CMA, JMA• Expressed interest, no detailed plans yet

• Data exchange with MSC– Replace current ftp with more reliable telecom by Dec 08

• Statistical post-processing– Continual enhancements to current methods (2nd moment correction, additional vars.)– Testing (Dec 08) & possible implementation (09) of advanced methods

• Products– Week-2 – experimental by Nov 06– Web graphics

• MSC – Nov 06• NCEP – Mar 07

NOAA Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction

NORTH