Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Automobile Industry Plain

8/2/2019 Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Automobile Industry Plain

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Fundamental and Technical analysisof Automobile Industry

Abhijit Patil

M-3037


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Content

Need of Financial Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

What is fundamental Analysis

Economy Analysis

Industry Analysis Company Analysis

Financial Statement Analysis

Ratio Analysis

Technical Analysis

What is Technical Analysis BSE Auto Index

Price Chart

50 and 200 Days moving average

Sensex vs Auto Index vs Companys chart

Fundamental Analysis vs Technical Analysis


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Need of Financial Analysis

It helps the investors to know at what price he should

purchase one companys share and a what price he should

sale shares.


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What is fundamental analysis

The evaluation of shares on the basis of a companys

performance

Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing itsfinancial statements and health, its management and

competitive advantages, its competitors ,markets,economy,

interest rates, production, earnings, and management.


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Fundamental Analysis (E.I.C Approach)

Economy

Industry

Company


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Economy Analysis

GDP

Year Mar Jun Sep Dec Average

2010 8.60 8.80 8.70

2009 5.80 6.00 8.60 6.50 6.73

2008 8.50 7.80 7.50 6.10 7.48


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Contribution of auto sector to GDP (in %)

Year Share in GDP(%)

2006 5.20%

2010E 7.20%

2016E 10.40%

Source: Automotive Mission Plan (Ministry of Heavy Industries &

Public Enterprises, Department of Heavy Industry, Government

of India)


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INFLATION RATE(CPI)


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Automobile sectors Export

Category 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Passenger

Vehicles166,402 175,572 198,452 218,401 335,729 446,146

CommercialVehicles 29,940 40,600 49,537 58,994 42,625 45,007

Three

Wheelers66,795 76,881 143,896 141,225 148,066 173,282

Two

Wheelers366,407 513,169 619,644 819,713 1,004,174 1,140,184

Grand Total 629,544 806,222 1,011,529 1,238,333 1,530,594 1,804,619


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0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10

Passenger Vehicles

Commercial Vehicles

Three Wheelers

Two Wheelers


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Indian Automobile Industry at Global level:

India ranks 1st in the global two-wheeler market

India is the 4th biggest commercial vehicle market in the

world India ranks 11th in the international passenger car market

India ranks 5th pertaining to the number of bus and truck sold

in the world

India is the second largest tractor manufacturer in the world.


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Industry Analysis

GROSS TUNROVEROF THE

AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRYIN

INDIA

Year(IN USD

MILLION)

2004-05 20,896

2005-06 27,011

2006-07 34,285

2007-08 36,612

2008-09 38,238


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Domestic Market Share for 2009-10

Vehical Type (%)

Passenger Vehicles 15.86

Commercial Vehicles 4.32

Three Wheelers 3.58

Two Wheelers 76.23

Sales

Passenger Vehicles

Commercial

Vehicles

Three Wheelers

Two Wheelers


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Automobile Domestic Sales Trends

Category 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Passenger

Vehicles1,061,572 1,143,076 1,379,979 1,549,882 1,552,703 1,949,776

Commercial

Vehicles 318,430 351,041 467,765 490,494 384,194 531,395

Three

Wheelers307,862 359,920 403,910 364,781 349,727 440,368

Two

Wheelers6,209,765 7,052,391 7,872,334 7,249,278 7,437,619 9,371,231

Grand Total 7,897,629 8,906,428 10,123,988 9,654,435 9,724,243 12,292,77

(Number of Vehicles)


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Market Cap for AUTO

As on

09 Sep 2010Value (Rs. in Crores) (%)

BSE Mkt. Cap 6,890,710.68 100

Auto Index Full Mkt. Cap 262,330.96 3.81

As on 9/9/2010


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Industry Specific Index

Scrip Code Company Last Traded Price Absolute Change Change (%)

520077 Amtek Auto 181.05 -1.30 -0.71

500877 Apollo Tyres 85.00 -0.95 -1.11

500477 Ashok Leyland 72.30 -1.60 -2.17

532977 Bajaj Auto 1,459.30 -21.65 -1.46

500493 Bharat Forge 369.00 6.55 1.81

500480 Cummins India 737.10 6.85 0.94

500086 Exide Inds 158.05 -1.60 -1.00

500182 Hero Honda 1,732.55 26.30 1.54500520 Mahindra & Mahindra 655.40 20.05 3.16

532500 Maruti Suzuki 1,314.80 6.45 0.49

500290 MRF 9,167.80 -69.10 -0.75

500570 Tata Motors 1,015.50 -16.30 -1.58

As on 9/9/2010


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Company analysis

Maruti Suzuki

Tata Motors


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Recent News

Maruti posts record sales figures

Maruti Suzuki sold 160,794 cars in August, up 33.2% from a year

earlier

India: Tata Motors' sales rise 32% in August

Tata Motors has revealed that total sales (including exports) of Tata

commercial and passenger vehicles in August 2010 amounted to

65,938 units, a rise of 32.4% from the 49,810 vehicles sold in August

2009

August local car sales up 33.2%


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Upcoming Cars

Maruti Suzuki Kizashi

When to expect: November 2010

Estimated Price: Rs 18lakh

Maruti Suzuki SX4 Diesel

When to expect: Mid 2011

Estimated Price: Rs 9 lakh

Tata New Safari

When to expect: Mid-2011

Estimated Price: Rs 7-11 lakh


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FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS


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Maruti Suzuki

(in Cr.) 2009 - 10 2008 - 09 2007 - 08 2006 - 07 2005 - 06

Income Statement

Revenue 29,623.01 20,852.52 17,860.28 14,653.89 12,052.24

Other Income 496.76 601.34 963.47 598.41 429.19

Total Income 30,119.77 21,453.86 18,823.75 15,252.30 12,481.43

Expenditure -25,668.72 -19,020.46 -15,692.91 -12,663.48 -10,425.63

Interest -33.50 -50.98 -59.62 -37.63 -20.39

PBDT 4,417.55 2,382.42 3,071.22 2,551.19 2,035.41

Depreciation -825.02 -706.54 -568.17 -271.36 -285.42

PBT 3,592.53 1,675.88 2,503.05 2,279.83 1,749.99

Tax -1,094.91 -457.14 -772.23 -717.85 -560.94

Net Profit 2,497.62 1,218.74 1,730.82 1,561.98 1,189.05Equity 144.46 144.46 144.46 144.46 144.46

Reserves 11,690.60 9,200.37 8,270.94 6,709.39 5,308.11

EPS 86.45 42.18 59.91 54.06 41.16

CEPS 115.00 66.64 79.57 -- --

OPM % 15.03 11.67 17.53 17.67 17.06

NPM % 8.43 5.84 9.69 10.66 9.87


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Tata Motors

(in Cr.) 2009 - 10 2008 - 09 2007 - 08 2006 - 07 2005 - 06Income Statement

Revenue 35,593.05 25,660.79 28,730.82 27,535.24 20,602.20

Other Income 1,853.45 925.97 483.18 245.19 289.11

Total Income 37,446.50 26,586.76 29,214.00 27,780.43 20,891.31

Expenditure -32,479.25 -24,024.78 -25,702.85 -24,306.54 -18,096.29Interest -1,103.84 -673.68 -282.37 -313.07 -226.35

PBDT 3,863.41 1,888.30 3,228.78 3,160.82 2,568.67

Depreciation -1,033.87 -874.54 -652.31 -586.29 -520.94

PBT 2,829.54 1,013.76 2,576.47 2,574.53 2,047.73

Tax -589.46 -12.50 -547.55 -659.72 -524.50

Net Profit 2,240.08 1,001.26 2,028.92 1,913.46 1,528.88

Equity 570.60 514.05 385.54 385.41 382.87

Reserves 14,370.24 11,691.03 7,428.45 6,458.39 5,127.81

EPS 42.37 22.70 52.64 49.76 40.57

CEPS 57.38 36.49 69.54 -- --

OPM % 13.96 9.98 12.22 12.62 13.57NPM % 6.29 3.90 7.06 6.95 7.42


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Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors

LTP 1,308.35 1,031.80

Change % -0.67 -0.60

52 W H / L 1,740.00 / 1,171.00 1,060.70 / 519.50

Results (in Cr.) View in (Million) Mar - 10 Mar - 10

Sales 29,623.01 35,593.05

PAT 2,497.62 2,240.08

Equity 144.46 570.60

Ratios

OPM % 15.03 13.96

NPM % 8.43 6.29

RONW 21.10 14.99

EPS 86.45 42.37

CEPS 115.00 57.38

PE -- --

PB 3.44 2.89

BV 409.63 261.84


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Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors

Ownership Jun - 10 % Jun-10 %

Promoter &

Promoter Grp15,66,18,440 54.21% 18,74,50,911 37.02 %

Indian ----

18,74,50,91137.02 %

Foreign 15,66,18,440 54.21 % -- --

Public 13,22,91,620 45.79 % 25,91,00,669 51.16 %

Institution 10,71,87,371 37.11 % 20,89,03,203 40.99 %

FII 5,80,28,722 20.09 % 11,46,37,070 22.64 %

DII 4,91,58,649 17.02 % 9,42,66,133 18.35 %

Non Institution 2,51,04,249 8.68 % 5,01,97,466 10.17 %

Bodies Corporate 1,73,21,036 6.00 % 36,59,280 0.72 %

Custodians - - 5,98,54,276 11.82 %


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Ratio Analysis

Particulars Maruti Suziki Tata Motars

2009 10 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2008 - 09

Sales 29,623.01 20,852.52 35,593.05 25,660.79

EPS 86.45 42.18 42.37 22.70

CEPS 115.00 66.64 57.38 36.49

OPM(%) 15.03 11.67 13.96 9.98

NPM(%) 8.43 5.84 6.29 3.90

Book Value 409.65 323.45 262.28 240.64

P/E (As on 8th

September,2010) 15.89 27.74

Industry P/E is 16.24


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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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BSE Auto Index


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Maruti Suzuki


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Maruti Suzukis 50DMA & 200DMA


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Maruti Suzuki vs Sensex vs Auto Index


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Tata Motors


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Tata Motorss 50DMA & 200DMA


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Tata Motors vs Sensex vs Auto Index

Documents

Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Automobile Industry Plain