Upload
milla
View
31
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Fund Performance Presentation as of December 2009 Suranaree University of Technology AIA Equity Registered Provident Fund. 1. Agenda. 2. Fund Status of each plan SUT Fund Performance as of December 31, 2009 AIA Equity Fund Performance as of December 31, 2009 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 11
Fund Performance Presentation as of December 2009Suranaree University of TechnologyAIA Equity Registered Provident Fund
2|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 2
• Fund Status of each plan
• SUT Fund Performance as of December 31, 2009
• AIA Equity Fund Performance as of December 31, 2009
• Performance of each investment plan
• Investment Outlook and Strategy
2
Agenda
01
3
Fund Status of each plan
4|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Net Asset Value (NAV) Members
Plan 1 Plan 2 Plan 3 Plan # Portion Fixed Income Portion
Equity Portion
1 100% SUT Fund 90% 10%
90% SUT Fund
+ 10% AIA Equity Fund
85% SUT Fund
+ 15% AIA Equity Fund
2 81% 19%
3 77% 23%
(Million Baht)
(members)
Plan 1 Plan 2 Plan 3 TotalNet Asset Value
(Million Baht)360.09 53.74 55.11 468.94
No. of members 804 117 95 1,016
Fund Status As of December 31, 2009
02
5
SUT Fund Performance
As of December 31, 2009
6|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 6
Dec 31, 08 Sep 30, 09 Dec 31, 09
Net Asset value 399,769,590.09 455,020,473.67 455,262,269.22
No. of Units 26,406,281.00 28,342,909.00 28,209,736.51
No. of Members 987 1,011 1,016
Unit Price 15.1392 16.0541 16.1385
Net Return 0.64% 6.04%* 6.60%
* YTD (Not Annualized)
Fund Status : SUT Fund
YTD Net Yield as of Jan 22, 10 = -0.17% ( from Jan 1, 10 to Jan 22, 10 : not annualized)
7|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 7
Cost Market Price Protion
1)Bonds, Treasury Bills or BoT Bond 301,939,214 304,017,648 66.78%2)Bank Deposits 41,731,037 42,738,612 9.39%3)Debt Instruments - Commercial Banks 28,200,000 28,583,726 6.28%4)Debt Instruments - Private companies 37,866,022 38,917,043 8.55%5)Common Stock 36,000,644 41,398,201 9.09%
Total Investment 445,736,917 455,655,229 100.09%
6) Other Account Payable 0 -392,960 -0.09%
Net Asset Value 445,736,917 455,262,269 100.00%
SUT FUNDSecurities
Asset Allocation
Unit : Baht
As of December 31, 2009
8|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 8
Total Bank Deposit 42,738,611.58 Baht (9.39% of NAV)
% of NAV
Bank Deposits
Fixed Deposits9.47%
Saving Account0.75%
Current Account2.71%
Fixed Deposit Account (ประจำ��)UOB 4.16%
LH Bank 1.63%
TISCO 1.04%
BAY 0.22%
Saving Account (ออมทรพย์ )CITIBANK 0.24%
UOB 0.12%
BAY 0.03%
Current Account
(กระแสร�ย์วัน) TISCO
0.99%
CITI 0.95%
BAY 0.00%
9|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 9
Corporate Debenture Investment
No. Issuer Credit Rating Issuer Code Maturity Cost (Baht) Market Value (Baht) Coupon Rate (%) Portion % NAV1 BANPU AA- BP109A* 15/9/2010 888,000 905,078 3.650 0.20%
BP125A 14/5/2012 1,000,000 1,015,166 3.500 0.22%
BP145A 14/5/2014 1,500,000 1,538,258 4.300 0.34%
BP165A 14/5/2016 8,998,026 9,007,032 4.903 1.98% 2.74%
2 SIAM CEMENT A SCC114A 1/4/2011 8,599,313 8,899,659 3.792 1.95% 1.95%
3 PTT PCL AAA PTTC153A 20/3/2015 6,286,892 6,587,166 4.905 1.45%
PTTC243A 6/3/2024 1,500,000 1,650,674 5.000 0.36% 1.81%
4 TOYOTA LEASING AAA TLT112A 28/2/2011 4,000,000 4,110,813 3.500 0.90% 0.90%
5 HONDA LEASING AAA HLTC103A 25/3/2010 3,000,000 3,055,955 4.400 0.67%
HLTC10OA 18/10/2010 998,447 1,023,353 4.400 0.22% 0.90%
6 GLOW ENERGY A GLOW10DA* 11/12/2010 1,095,344 1,123,891 5.264 0.25% 0.25%
รวัม 37,866,022 38,917,043 8.55% 8.55%
10|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 10
2.65%3.71%
27.18%
66.46%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
< 1 ป� 1-3 ป� 3-5 ป� > 5 ป�
Corporate,
8.55%
Government,
66.78%
Financial
Inst., 15.67%
(Modified Duration) = 1.02 (Years)
Credit Rating by TRIS / FITCHAAA = 42%AA = 32%A = 26%
(Classify by duration)(Classify by issuer)
Summary of Fixed Income Investment
11|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 11
1
23
Equity Investment
Common Stock Units Cost Market Value % NAV
PTT 30,300 6,068,546 7,453,800 1.64%
PTTEP 19,500 2,105,396 2,866,500 0.63%
TOP 54,400 2,092,083 2,325,600 0.51%
BANPU 3,200 1,147,219 1,843,200 0.40%
RATCH 51,800 1,881,009 1,825,950 0.40%
TTW 333,600 1,403,260 1,487,856 0.33%
Sector : Energy 492,800 14,697,514 17,802,906 3.91%
BBL 34,500 3,445,448 4,002,000 0.88%
KBANK 43,100 2,906,312 3,663,500 0.80%
SCB 15,900 1,284,409 1,379,325 0.30%
Sector : Banking 93,500 7,636,169 9,044,825 1.99%
12|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 12
Equity Investment
Common Stock Units Cost Market Value % NAV
AP 339,100 1,741,479 1,949,825 0.43%
TICON 175,900 1,701,480 1,688,640 0.37%
LH 241,200 1,430,369 1,519,560 0.33%
Sector : Property 756,200 4,873,327 5,158,025 1.13%
ADVANC 38,100 3,217,030 3,295,650 0.72%
DTAC 37,500 1,321,002 1,340,625 0.29%
Sector : Communication 75,600 4,538,032 4,636,275 1.02%
SCC 8,100 1,647,692 1,903,500 0.42%
Sector : Construction 8,100 1,647,692 1,903,500 0.42%
TPC 48,300 904,927 888,720 0.20%
PTTCH 1,300 90,918 96,200 0.02%
Sector : Chemical and Plastic 49,600 995,844 984,920 0.22%
Total 1,491,300 36,000,644 41,398,201 9.09%
13|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 13
Income Baht
Interest on Bank Deposit 1,964,020.79
Interest on Bond and Treasury Bill 4,948,385.06
Interest on Promissory Note 813,789.20
Interest on Debenture 3,097,005.45
Dividend 1,644,648.00
Gain on Sales of Securities 5,248,326.25
Sub Total 17,716,174.75 Unrealized loss from mark-to market (Debt Instruments) (4,961,188.59)
Unrealized gain from mark-to-market (Equity Instruments) 16,014,928.14
Total Investment Income 28,769,914.30
January 1 – December 31, 09Earnings of fund
14|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 14
Suranaree Fund Net Return Benchmark
Bank Deposit 3.85% Average 4 Banks 1 Year Fixed Deposit Rate (Institution) 0.84%
Gov. Bond / Debenture 1.98% TBMA 1-Year. Zero Rate Return Gov. Bond Index 2.27%
TBMA 2-Year. Zero Rate Return Gov. Bond Index 2.07%
Equity 71.27% Set Index Return 63.25%
Net Return 6.60% Benchmark 6.94%
Jan 1 – Dec 31 0, 9
Suranaree University Fund Performance
Note : *10% SET Index Return + 30% TBMA 1 –Yr. ZRR Govt. Bond Index + 30% TBMA 2 –Yr. ZRR Govt. Bond Index
+ 30% Avg. 1-yr. Fixed Deposit Rate
- Past performance of provident fund is not indicative of future results - In making an investment decision, prospective investors must rely on their own examination of the merits and risks involved- The performance measurement has been made in comply with the standard performance measurement set by AIMC.- We are not soliciting or recommending any action based on this material.
15|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 15
December 31, 08 December 31 ,09 SUT
Net Asset value 63,970,898 114,471,356 13,684,167
No. of Units 20 23 1
No. of Members 921 1,008 212
Unit Price 8.0245 12.0130 12.0130
Net Return -38.67% 49.70% 49.70%
Fund Status : AIA Equity
YTD Net Yield as of Jan 22, 10 = -4.08% ( from Jan 1, 10 to Jan 22, 10 : not annualized)
16|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 16
Securities
Cost Market Price Portion
1)Bank Deposits 6,718,994 6,730,125 5.88%
2) Common Stock 96,448,040 108,126,138 94.46%
(Total Investment) 103,167,034 114,856,263 100.34%
3) Accrued Dividend 0 23,436 0.02%
4) Other Account Payable 0 -408,343 -0.36%
Net Asset Value 103,167,034 114,471,356 100.00%
AIA Equity Fund
Unit : Baht
Asset Allocation As of December 31, 2009
17|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 17
1
2
3
Equity Investment
Sec. Name Units Cost Market Value % NAV
PTT 64,600.00 15,568,936.64 15,891,600.00 13.88%
TOP 130,400.00 5,502,136.25 5,574,600.00 4.87%PTTEP 31,100.00 3,657,106.71 4,571,700.00 3.99%
BANPU 7,400.00 2,670,094.44 4,262,400.00 3.72%
TTW 723,800.00 2,984,005.99 3,228,148.00 2.82%EGCO 31,400.00 2,751,409.92 2,488,450.00 2.17%
PTTAR 93,200.00 1,852,546.31 2,376,600.00 2.08%
Sector : Energy1,081,900.00 34,986,236.26 38,393,498.00 33.54%
BBL 82,000.00 8,561,814.26 9,512,000.00 8.31%
KBANK 92,200.00 6,167,944.35 7,837,000.00 6.85%
SCB 69,300.00 5,226,142.11 6,011,775.00 5.25%
BAY 81,900.00 1,679,244.96 1,842,750.00 1.61%
Sector : Banking243,400.00 13,073,331.42 15,691,525.00 13.71%
ADVANC 83,400.00 6,999,898.03 7,214,100.00 6.30%
DTAC 142,600.00 5,066,681.69 5,097,950.00 4.45%Sector : Communication226,000.00 12,066,579.72 12,312,050.00 10.76%
18|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 18
Equity Investment (cont)
Sec. Name Units Cost Market Value % NAV
AP 871,300.00 4,971,840.43 5,009,975.00 4.38%
LH 588,300.00 3,249,664.82 3,706,290.00 3.24%
PS 128,200.00 2,098,519.17 2,281,960.00 1.99%
Sector : Property 1,587,800.00 10,320,024.42 10,998,225.00 9.61%
SCC 16,600.00 3,388,157.89 3,901,000.00 3.41%
Sector : Construction 16,600.00 3,388,157.89 3,901,000.00 3.41%
BECL 178,300.00 3,321,505.20 3,708,640.00 3.24%
AOT 71,600.00 2,839,591.96 2,792,400.00 2.44%
Sector : Transportation 249,900.00 6,161,097.16 6,501,040.00 5.68%
DELTA 180,400.00 3,147,380.95 3,355,440.00 2.93%
STANLY 26,400.00 2,328,309.89 3,181,200.00 2.78%
CPF 278,400.00 1,472,665.68 3,173,760.00 2.77%
MCOT 46,100.00 942,442.09 1,106,400.00 0.97%
Sector : Other 531,300.00 7,890,798.61 10,816,800.00 9.45%
Total 4,018,900.00 96,448,039.74 108,126,138.00 94.46%
19|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 19
2009 Fund Return (AIA Equity) Benchmark
Bank Deposit 1.73%
Average 4 Banks 1 Year Fixed
Deposit Rate (Institution) 0.84%
Equity 67.01% Set Index Return 63.25%
Net Return 49.70% Benchmark* 63.25%
Equity Fund Performance
Jan 1 – Dec 31 09
Note : * Benchmark calculated by 100% SET Index Return
- Past performance of provident fund is not indicative of future results - In making an investment decision, prospective investors must rely on their own examination of the merits and risks involved- The performance measurement has been made in comply with the standard performance measurement set by AIMC.- We are not soliciting or recommending any action based on this material.
20|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 20
2006 2007
2008 2009
Net Return -7.21% 41.00%
-38.67% 49.70%
Benchmark (SET Index Return) -8.01%
26.22% -47.56% 63.25%
Past Performance : AIA Equity
Accumulated Net Return (Since Inception Date) = 20.13%
04
21
Performance of each investment plan
22|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 22
Performance of each Investment Plan
15434. 8Baht
15641. 3 Baht
16054. 1 Baht
Unit Price(Estimate1)
2
3
1
Benchmark**2009 Net
Return Plan #
85%(Benchmark of SUT Fund) + 15% (100% SET Index Return)3
90%(Benchmark of SUT Fund) + 10% (100% SET Index Return)2
10% SET Index Return + 30% 1-Yr. Fixed Deposit Rate (Avg. 4 Banks) + 30% TBMA 1-Yr. ZRR Index + 30% TBMA 2-Yr. ZRR Index1
Benchmark**Plan #
1Calculated by weighted average from portion of each investment plan
6.60% 6.94%
10.91% 11.80%
13.07% 14.29%
23|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. 23
Plan # Net Return 2008 Net Return 2009 Accumulated Net Return
( 2008 - 2009)
1 0.64% 6.60% 7.24%
2 -2.59% 10.91% 8.32%
3 -4.17% 13.07% 8.90%
Compare Return of each Investment Plan
(2008 VS 2009)
05
24
Investment Outlook and Strategy
25|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution.
Average 1 YR Fixed Deposit Rate of BBL, KBANK, SCB, KTB
2007 2008 2009 1-year fixed 2.90% 2.52% 0.84%
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 June 09 Aug 09 Oc t09 Dec 09
1.71% p.a.
0.56% p.a.
26|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution.
Yield Curve
Steep yield curve due to low level of policy rate mean time long dated higher due to economic recover expectation.
27|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution.
Inflation Rate and Interest Rate
• Inflation Expectation in Thailand tends to increase in the next 1-2 years as well as other countries such as US, EU and Australia
28|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution.
Period Strategy
(1H10)- Maintain duration not less than 1 year- Reinvest cash matured in Fixed Deposit 2-3 Years to enhance fund return during inflation pressure
(2H10)
- Extend duration to 1.5 – 2 years- Ladder structure port focus on 1-2-3-4 years to prevent Mark to Market (MTM) loss from tightening policy expected in 2H10
Fixed Income Strategy
29|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution. Source : www.aimc.or.th / Reuter
380
430
480
530
580
630
680
730
5/1/2
009
5/2/2
009
5/3/2
009
5/4/2
009
5/5/2
009
5/6/2
009
5/7/2
009
5/8/2
009
5/9/2
009
5/10/2
009
5/11/2
009
5/12/2
009
449.96
734.54
2550 2551 2552SET Index Return 26.22% -47.56% 63.25%
SET Index
30|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution.
Valuation: Regional vs Thailand
Regional valuations*
*Based on closing prices as of 20 November 2009 Source: UBS estimates
We expect Thailand to deliver 16% EPS growth, 13.5% ROE, and 3.8% dividend yield in 2010E
Country/Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011
Australia 11.0 17.5 14.2 11.8 -13.4 -19.3 23.1 20.2 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.7 15.3 11.6 12.8 14.3 5.8 3.6 4.0 4.5
China 13.7 19.1 15.8 13.9 -7.2 17.3 20.5 13.5 1.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 14.0 14.4 15.4 15.6 3.1 2.0 2.5 2.8
Hong Kong 14.1 20.4 16.8 15.5 -24.6 7.0 22.3 9.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 6.1 6.3 7.4 8.0 4.6 3.1 3.3 3.7
Indonesia 8.6 15.3 13.2 10.9 2.5 12.5 16.2 23.0 1.7 3.0 2.6 2.5 19.8 19.7 20.0 22.6 4.5 2.2 2.9 3.5
India 10.8 18.3 15.6 12.9 0.9 4.1 17.6 20.3 1.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 16.4 15.2 15.6 16.2 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.7
Korea 10.8 13.3 9.7 8.6 -21.8 14.7 38.2 10.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 9.6 9.9 12.3 12.3 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.2
Malaysia 12.5 17.8 15.5 13.4 -15.7 -3.9 15.3 15.5 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 12.7 11.7 12.5 13.3 4.0 3.3 2.9 3.2
Philippines 9.9 15.4 13.8 12.3 -2.8 6.2 11.7 12.0 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 10.3 10.1 10.9 11.6 6.1 3.1 3.2 3.4
Singapore 9.2 18.3 15.1 13.4 -14.4 -19.1 21.6 12.8 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 12.0 9.8 11.3 11.9 5.7 3.2 3.5 3.8
Taiwan 16.6 24.4 16.3 14.4 -43.7 7.2 49.8 13.6 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 8.2 8.4 11.8 12.6 6.7 3.0 3.5 4.3
Thailand 8.6 12.9 11.1 9.3 -13.2 2.7 16.0 19.0 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 13.3 12.7 13.5 14.8 7.3 3.9 3.8 4.4
United States 24.0 19.0 15.0 12.6 -51.4 51.3 26.4 18.7 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 10.7 12.3 13.9 15.5 3.1 1.9 2.0 2.1
Europe 15.0 20.6 15.5 13.1 -31.4 -1.6 32.9 18.7 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 8.9 8.5 10.5 11.5 3.6 2.3 2.6 3.0
Japan 29.9 39.1 19.1 14.4 -68.7 -29.2 105.3 32.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 3.5 2.7 5.4 6.9 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.3
Asia Pac ex JP 12.1 18.1 14.7 12.7 -12.9 3.5 22.8 15.3 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 12.6 12.0 13.3 14.0 4.1 2.4 2.8 3.2
Asia ex JP 12.5 18.2 14.8 13.0 -12.7 10.8 22.9 14.2 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 12.0 12.1 13.5 14.0 3.6 2.2 2.5 2.9
Global DM 9.1 14.8 11.9 10.1 -8.2 -2.9 25.0 17.3 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 14.5 12.7 14.3 15.0 3.9 2.4 2.8 3.3
PE EPS Growth(%) PBOOK ROE(%) Net Div Yield(%)
31|
AIA confidential and proprietary information. Not for distribution.
Equity Strategy
• Focus on growth and value Stock
• Overweight on
• Banking
• Energy
• PTT / PTTEP / TOP / BANPU
Regional banks valuation comparison
Data priced as at 20 November 2009; Source: UBS estimates
Tier-1 ratio2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E (2009E)
China/HK 17.6 14.5 3.2 2.8 18.1 19.3 9.0India 23.4 21.0 3.3 2.8 14.9 13.8 10.7Indonesia 16.4 13.2 3.1 2.8 19.8 21.4 12.1Malaysia 31.8 14.5 2.5 2.2 12.4 15.6 10.1Philippines 17.4 14.1 1.7 1.6 9.8 11.1 10.8Singapore 15.2 12.3 1.6 1.5 10.9 12.5 12.9Taiwan 43.3 23.2 2.2 2.1 7.2 8.9 8.7Thailand 13.4 10.2 1.5 1.3 11.1 13.0 11.5ASIA 19.5 15.2 3.0 2.6 16.5 17.6 9.6Asia, ex-Thailand 19.7 15.3 3.0 2.7 16.6 17.8 9.5
PE (x) P/BV (x) ROE
Thank you.
32
Investment involves risk. Investors should study investment details before making investment.
Past performance of provident fund is not a guarantee of future result.
Disclaimer: