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Functional Value of Biodiversity Project
OverviewSeptember 2002
The Bank - Netherlands Partnership Program
Outline
• Goals• Results to date• Phase II plans• Current and expected impacts
Motivation
• Can biodiversity conservation ‘pay for itself’ by providing functional values? – such as flood prevention, climate mitigation, forest products, etc.
• If so, can poor people benefit:– As providers of these functional values?– As beneficiaries?
• Hydrological services appear to be potentially among the most ‘saleable’ -- but most poorly understood -- forest values.
Assertions
• Upland-dwelling poor people are the agents of deforestation that results in upland biodiversity loss and downslope flooding, sedimentation, drought, landslides.
• If downslope populations pay upland dwellers to alter behavior, the result can be higher economic output, poverty reduction, and biodiversity conservation.
• Is this assertion valid? Where? To what extent?
General Objective
Provide a sound basis for identifying and designing policies and projects that use forest conservation as a tool for maintaining the level, quality, and regularity of water flows.
“Conventional wisdom” can result in both missed opportunities and inappropriate policies
Goals for mainstreaming: influence…
• …Bankwide priority-setting, agenda-setting:
Where are forest conservation/hydrology connections important?
• …CAS, PRSP for selected countries: What kinds of connections are important? For what subregions? Is there a poverty link?
• …Environmental services project design
At what scale does land use change affect hydrological functions?
Watershed < 200km2 Spatial arrangement of trees and crops locally affects:• Erosion• Sedimentation• Flooding• Landslides• Habitat connectivity
Basins > 5,000km2
• Deforestation• Habitat loss• Increased water yield
controversial• Lowland flooding• Sedimentation
Southern Guatemala0 20 40 km
Vertical Exaggeration x5
AgricultureForestWaterUrbanShrubBare rock
Guatemala City
Predicting local impacts of land use change based on
topography
0.5
1
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0.01 0.1 1
tan(Slope)
log (
Topogra
phic
index)
Saturation Overland
Flow, no Erosion
Erosion
No Surface Runoff
LandslideRisk
Global significance of forest-hydrology-biodiversity
interface• Where is the interface* between
agriculture and forested slopes? – the place where deforestation might affect water flows.
• Who lives there, worldwide? 20 million people? 100 million? 200 million?
• Where is the interface crucial to biodiversity?
* Restrictive definition
165 million in developing countries at the forested-slope interface*
165 million in developing countries at the forested-slope interface*
* Restrictive definition
Buffer zones falling within areas of High Biological Distinctiveness (km2)
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Tanzania
Guatemala
Zaire
Ethiopia
Ecuador
Madagascar
Honduras
Nepal
Bolivia
Venezuela
Thailand
Papua New Guinea
Morocco
Algeria
Brazil
Myanmar
Malaysia
Philippines
India
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
Indonesia
Area of high BDI
Non-BDI
Interface zones:Overwhelmingly In areas of high Biological Distinctiveness(based on WWFGlobal 200)
Note: data missing for China
Extent of basins includingtropical forests
Source: Hydro1k – USGS EDC 2001; Terrain type: A. Nelson – World Bank (2001).Note: The shading differentiates between the upper and lower catchments of the basins.
Dividing line between humid and subhumid tropicsFocus area
ASB site locations
Regional studies
Central America:combine data on forests and slopes…
..with info on population…
…poverty…
...and watersheds
Guatemala: critical watershedswhere the ‘interface’ > 20% of area
Guatemala: poor people/km2by watershed
Guatemala: poverty rateby watershed
Guatemala: poverty ratewith critical watersheds highlighted
Lambert Equal Area ProjectionCentered at 85 W and 13 N
Nicaragua: few ‘critical’ watersheds (at this scale and definition)
Lambert Equal Area ProjectionCentered at 85 W and 13 N
Panama: few ‘critical’ watersheds (at this scale and definition)
Laos: High-poverty provinces have the most
rugged terrain.
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Poverty rank (1= poorest)Hill
iness
rank
(1=
hig
hest
pro
port
ion)
Impacts to date: inputs to
• WDR 2003• Millennium Ecosystem assessment• RUPES – IFAD-funded project on
environment services payments for upland poor of Asia
• World Bank Poverty-environment study for SE Asia and Laos PRSP process
Expected impacts by project end
• Inputs into PRSP’s and CAS’s • Inputs into forest policy
implementation• Inputs into design of possible
environmental services projects• Analytic tools and policy conclusions:
resources for future policy and project design
Phase II plans
• Detailed hydrological modeling at three scales:– Global– Regional (Central America, SE Asia)– Watershed (Thailand, Indonesia; possible Central
America)
• Providing info on hydrological ‘hotspots’ and affected areas and populations
• Link to micro-level understanding of land use options