Fuel Choice Model

The Total Resource Cost (TRC) Perspective

Michael Schilmoeller

9/8/2011

Summary-TRC Perspective

• Over 20 years– 560 MWa decline in power use– 13.1 x 1012 BTUs per year increase in gas use– 2,593,900 existing households

• Annually (just divide by 20)– 28 MWa decline in power use – 657 x 109 BTUs per year increase in gas use– 129,695 existing households

WH Size > 55 gals

HPWH

Gas Existing or Extension only

HPWH

Gas tank83,480 households/yr464 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-12.58 change, Mwa/yr

15,010 households/yr-101 change, BTUs 10^9/yr1.25 change, MWa/yr

31,202 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-5.68 change, MWa/yr

The convention in this decision tree is

•Every factor, indicated by a square box, is followed by two branches, indicating whether the condition is true or false

·The top branch leads to the outcome if the factor is TRUE; the bottom one corresponds to the situation where the condition is FALSE.·Each branch ends with a appliance choice, indicated by an oval and emphasized with an alternative font color

Source: M Schilmoeller, Q:\MS\Plan 6\Studies\Model Development\Direct Use of Gas\101004 Study\Selection tree 110904.docx

Water Heating

Space Heating

1050 sqft

Zonal

Existing Zonal (absence of ductwork)

AC

Gas FAF

Ductless

Gas existing or extension only

Gas FAF

AC

Heat Pump

Zonal

The convention in this decision tree is Every factor, indicated by a square box, is

followed by two branches, indicating whether the condition is true or false

The top branch leads to the outcome if the factor is TRUE; the bottom one corresponds to the situation where the condition is FALSE.

Each branch ends with a appliance choice, indicated by an oval and emphasized with an alternative font color

15,343 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-0.02 change, MWa/yr

4,111 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-1.41 change, MWa/yr

19,773 households/yr16 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-0.43 change, MWa/y

79,587 households/yr279 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-7.45 changeWa/yr

6,086 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-0.98 change, MWa/yr

4,793 households/yr0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr-0.68 change, MWa/yr