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The University of Oklahoma The University of Oklahoma Fuel Cell Corporation Fuel Cell Corporation April 29, 2004 Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation Generation A Comprehensive Analysis of Technology, Plant Construction, and A Comprehensive Analysis of Technology, Plant Construction, and Marketing Strategy for Small Buildings Marketing Strategy for Small Buildings

Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

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Page 1: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

The University of Oklahoma The University of Oklahoma Fuel Cell CorporationFuel Cell Corporation

April 29, 2004

Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Fuel Cells for Stationary Power GenerationGeneration

A Comprehensive Analysis of Technology, Plant Construction, and A Comprehensive Analysis of Technology, Plant Construction, and Marketing Strategy for Small BuildingsMarketing Strategy for Small Buildings

Page 2: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Fuel Cell AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical Model and Economic AnalysisLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 3: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Fuel Cell AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical Model and Economic AnalysisLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 4: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

The OUFCC Product

– All fuel cell “plant” parts (reformer, power conditioner, etc.)– On-site consultation to suggest infrastructure changes,

determine the best source of fuel, and help customer choose fuel cell type.

Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell (PAFC)Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC)Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC)

– Delivery – Trial-period of one year– Warranty period of two years

The OUFCC offers the following services with the purchase of at least one stationary 200-250 kW fuel cell:

Page 5: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell Advantages

The OUFCC will fill the need of supplying a source of electricity that has the following advantages:

– High efficiency and cogeneration applications– Reliable – Independent of a power grid – Optionally dependent on fossil fuel– Few maintenance costs– Clean

Page 6: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

The MarketThe Market

– Hospitals– Banks– Post Offices – Police Stations

Main customers: Most Probable Location:– High No. of Businesses– High Air Pollution Levels– High Electricity Price– Away from markets already

targeted

Our largest market is in the Southwest(AZ, NM, OK, TX)

Page 7: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

CogenAvailable?

0

0

Low

45-200

150-300

50

0

NOxEmissions

(ppm)

20-40%1000YesWind Systems

5-15%6000-10,000YesPhotovoltaic Systems

12-20%2000-50,000NoStirlingEngines

25-45%300-900YesReciprocating Engines (Generators)

20-45%300-1000YesCombustion Turbines

20-30%700-1100YesMicroturbines

60-85%4000-4800YesFuel Cells

Efficiency (%)

Cost ($/kW)Commercially Available?

Technology

Technology CompetitorsTechnology Competitors

Page 8: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

The The OUFCCOUFCC’’ss GoalsGoals

Current Goals:Enter the stationary fuel cell market, make a profit, and establish a name and reputation.

Future Goals:Develop a niche market. Eventually, as fuel cell technology becomes more widely accepted, compete as a leading provider of stationary fuel cells.

Page 9: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Fuel Cell AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical Model and Economic AnalysisLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 10: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

What are fuel cells?What are fuel cells?

• Electrochemical devices• Convert chemical energy directly to

electricity and produce heat, with the help of catalyst

• Similar to batteries in operation• Difference: batteries store energy while

fuel cells produce electricity

Page 11: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

History of Fuel CellsHistory of Fuel Cells

• 1932: First successful fuel cell device was developed.

• 1959: A practical 5-kW fuel cell system was demonstrated.

• In more recent decades, fuel cell energy has been expected to replace traditional power sources.

Page 12: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

A Fuel Cell SystemA Fuel Cell System

Page 13: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

How Fuel Cells WorkHow Fuel Cells Work

Catalyst

•Anode Side

•Cathode Side

•Net Reaction

2H2 4H+ + 4e-

O2 + 4H+ +4e- 2H2O

2H2 + O2 2H2O

→Catalyst

→Catalyst

Page 14: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Water

Heat

Hydrogen

Oxygen

Proton

Electron

Page 15: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Electrochemical Reactions for Diff. Types of Fuel Cells

Courtesy of National Fuel Cell Research Center

Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

Phosphoric Acid and Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell

Page 16: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Block Diagram of Fuel Cell SystemBlock Diagram of Fuel Cell System

Courtesy of DoDFuelCell-Library Resources

Produces H2-rich gas

Produces DC electricity

Converts DC to AC electricity

Page 17: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Fuel Cell AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical Model and Economic AnalysisLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 18: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cells: Stationary Power Fuel Cells: Stationary Power GenerationGeneration

• Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell (PAFC)

• Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC)

• Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC)

• Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC)

Page 19: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell TypesFuel Cell TypesPHOSPHORIC ACID FUEL CELL (PAFC)• Electrolyte: Concentrated Phosphoric Acid• Most mature technology and widely diffused• Supplied stationary power

for 10 yrs• Dimensions: 5.5m X 3m X 3m• Manufacturing Cost: $575,000

Page 20: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell TypesFuel Cell TypesSOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL (SOFC)• Electrolyte: solid metal oxide• Excellent cogeneration capabilities• Most desirable• Dimensions: 6m X 3m X 3m• Mfg. Cost: $524,800

Courtesy of Global Thermoelectric Inc.

Page 21: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell Types Fuel Cell Types PROTON EXCHANGE MEMBRANE FUEL CELL

(PEMFC)• Electrolyte: solid perflurosulfonic acid polymer• Newest technology • Lower Operating Costs• Quick Start-Up• High Sensitivity to Fuel• Dimensions: 5.4m X 3m X 3m• Manufacturing Cost: $590,600

Page 22: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell Types Fuel Cell Types MOLTEN CARBONATE FUEL CELL

(MCFC)• Electrolyte: liquid lithium-potassium

carbonate salt• Electrode corrodes @ high temp. • Currently in low demand• Fuel and catalyst flexibility

Page 23: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell Analysis

Catalyst poisoned @ low temp.

No poison or corrosion

Electrode corrodes @ high temp.

Catalyst poisoned @ low temp.

Durability/Corrosion Issues

6 min5 – 10 hr8 – 10 hr1 – 4 hrStart-Up Time

~ 700 mW/cm2~ 200 mW/cm2

~ 160 mW/cm2

~ 200 mW/cm2Peak Power Density

pure H2flexibleflexiblepure H2Fuel

$750/kW$377/kW$780/kW$560/kWCost of Raw Materials

MassachusettsOhiolimitedMassachusettsAvailability of Raw Materials

175°F1800°F1200°F370 - 410°FOperating Temp.

50%50% - 60%50% - 55% 37% - 42%Efficiency

Proton Exchange

Solid Oxide

Molten Carbonate

Phosphoric Acid

Criteria

Page 24: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell ChallengesFuel Cell Challenges• Expensive System

• Conservative Market

• Unproven Market and Technology

• Fuel Supply

Page 25: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Types of Products ManufacturedCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical ModelLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 26: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Hydrogen Production FuelsHydrogen Production Fuels

• Gasoline/Diesel• Coal• Biogas• Electrolysis of H2O• Methanol/Ethanol• Natural Gas

Page 27: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Natural Gas ReformingNatural Gas Reforming

• Availability• Mature Infrastructure• Low Emissions

Halias Natural Gas Reformer for 7.5 kW PEMFC, ChevronTexaco

Page 28: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Steam Reforming ProcessSteam Reforming Process

• Purpose– Center of reforming process convert CH4

to H2 using steam. • Method

– High Temperature ~ 800 ºC– Use H2O to push equilibrium towards

products– Nickel Oxide 4 hole cylinders

222

224 3HCOOHCO

HCOOHCH+→++→+

Page 29: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

The Problem of Carbon The Problem of Carbon MonoxideMonoxide

• Purpose– Convert Carbon Monoxide Byproduct of

Steam Reforming• Method

– Two reactors with different…• Temperatures (T1 ~ 450 °C, T2 ~ 225 °C)• Catalysts (chromia promoted iron oxide

pellets, copper-zinc oxide pellets)

222 HCOOHCO +↔+

Page 30: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

The Problem of SulfurThe Problem of Sulfur

• Purpose– Reduce Sulfur content of gas

• Method– Cobalt-Molybdenum extrudes– ZnO spheres to remove H2S– 300-400 °C

( )OHZnSZnOSH

SHHCHSHC

22

2622252 22+→+

+→+

Page 31: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell Design RequirementsFuel Cell Design Requirements• SOFC

– Sulfur reduction to less than 1 ppm• PAFC

– Sulfur to less than 50 ppm– CO to less than 0.5 mole %

• PEMF– Sulfur to less than 1 ppb– CO to less than 10 ppm

Page 32: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

To Build or Not to BuildTo Build or Not to BuildBenefits

Lower Per Unit CostOpportunities for Process IntegrationIncreased Design Flexibility

DisadvantagesIncreased Capital InvestmentCatalyst Regeneration and HandlingDiffuse Market Focus

Page 33: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Potential Reformer SuppliersPotential Reformer Suppliers• Ztek Corporation

– East Coast– Flexible Fuel Stocks

• Gasoline• Natural Gas

– 4000 SCF H2 produced per hour.

– 2 m by 4 m by 2 m– Estimated cost of

$125,000 based upon Department of Energy study.

• ChevronTexaco– West Coast– Fuel Stocks

• Natural Gas• Propane

– Currently under scaled

• Only 250 SCF H2per hour

• 1.5 m by 1 m by 1 m

Page 34: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Fuel Cell AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical Model and Economic AnalysisLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 35: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Fuel Cell Manufacturing Fuel Cell Manufacturing ProcessesProcesses

• PAFC– Teflon bonded silicon carbide matrix

suspends the phosphoric acid• PEMFC

– MEA is created through polymer processes

• SOFC– Cathode, anode, and electrolyte are all

produced from powder solutions

Page 36: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

SOFC Raw MaterialsSOFC Raw Materials• Electrolyte – ZrO2(Y2O3) powder• Cathode – doped LaMnO3 powder• Anode – Ni-ZrO2(Y2O3) powder• Other Materials

– Solvents– Binders– Plastisisers– Cr Alloy

Page 37: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Process Flowchart for SOFCProcess Flowchart for SOFCBinder Solvent ZrO2(Y2O3)

Ball Milling

Tape Casting

Drying

Sintering

Solvent

Binder

ELECTROLYTE

Triple Roll Milling

Screen Printing

Drying

Sintering

Solvent

SolventBinder

Binder

ELECTROLYTEAND

CATHODE

Doped LaMnO3

Triple Roll Milling

Screen Printing

Drying

Sintering

SolventBinder Ni-ZrO2(Y2O3)

Solvent

Binder

ELECTROLYTE,CATHODE, AND ANODE

PEN AND INTERCONNECT

Cr Alloy

Metal Forming

INTERCONNECT

BrazingBALL MILLINGTAPE CASTINGSCREEN PRINTING

Page 38: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Diagram of the Unit CellDiagram of the Unit Cell

Page 39: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Process Cost BreakProcess Cost Break--DownDown

Factors: Labor, Power, Raw Materials

Layer Assembly

52%Anode,

Cathode, Electrolyte

33%

Interconnect15%

Page 40: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Equipment CostEquipment Cost

$300,000 Tape CasterElectrolyteAutomated Tape Casting

$20,000Manual StationAnode, CathodeScreen Printing

$22,000 Ball Mill, Roll MillsAnode, Cathode, ElectrolyteMilling

$400,000 Brazing FurnaceInterconnectIC joining -Heat Treatment

$500,000 Sintering FurnaceFabricationContinuous Sinter

$300,000 Inspection MachineFabricationVacuum Leak Test

Equipment CostEquipment DescriptionComponentProcess Description

Total SOFC Equipment Cost = $2.4 million

Courtesy of Department of Energy-Federal Energy Technology Center

Page 41: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Fuel Cell AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical Model with Economic AnalysisLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 42: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Plant Location AnalysisPlant Location Analysis• Origin of Raw Materials

MA and OH

• Possible Market LocationsNo. of Small BusinessAmount of PollutionElectricity Prices

• Low Tax RatesProperty, Sales, Federal, and State Taxes

• Low Cost of LaborMedian Hourly Wage

• Only the Lower 48 States Were Considered

Page 43: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Plant Location AnalysisPlant Location Analysis

Page 44: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Labor & Tax AnalysisLabor & Tax AnalysisLabor• Number of Employees • Annual Salaries by Position • 3 Shifts per Day / 341 Days per year

Taxes• State Corporate Income Tax• Federal Corporate Income Tax• Sales Tax• Property Tax

Page 45: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Transportation AnalysisTransportation AnalysisTwo options – American Freight Company or

The OUFCC fleet

If AFC is contracted:• We will be Packing, Crating and Addressing

the Shipments• $1.45 for each mile traveled• Flat Fee - $668 per delivery • Large City Surcharge of $100

Page 46: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Transportation Analysis Transportation Analysis If The OUFCC purchases own fleet:

• Trucks - $55,000 each

• Truck Drivers - $40,000/yr

• Diesel

• Licenses, Tires, Insurance and Maintenance

Page 47: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Fuel Cell AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical Model and Economic AnalysisLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 48: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Mathematical ModelMathematical Model• Why use a model?

– Consider multiple design options simultaneously.

– Prediction of sales and added production over project lifetime.

• Type: General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS)

Page 49: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Mathematical Model Mathematical Model --GAMSGAMS• Goal:

– Determine plant and market locations– Determine annual production rate of

each type– Maximize our objective function: NPW

• Types: Deterministic and Stochastic

Page 50: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Deterministic ModelDeterministic Model• Input

– Raw Materials– Utilities costs– Transportation– Taxes– Market demands– Maximum capacity– Selling price of fuel

cells

• Output– Production rate– Increase production– Revenue– Cash Flow– FCI,TCI– Objective Function: NPW

Page 51: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Deterministic ModelDeterministic Model

• Constraints–Decision variable for plant

location–Maximum Capacity–Market demand

Page 52: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

ParametersParameters• Locations: 13

– AZ, CA,FL,MA,MO,NE,NV,NY,OH,OK,TX,WA, WY

• Labor: 71 workers• Operating Period: 341 days/yr; 24 hrs/day• Project Life:10 years• Selling Price: Varies over time

– $1.0 million for PAFC– $1.1 million for SOFC– $1.2 million for PEMFC

Page 53: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Selling PriceSelling Price

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

PAFC

SOFC

PEMFC

Project Lifetime

Selli

ng P

rice

($)

Page 54: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Mathematical EquationsMathematical Equations• FCI

• Revenue

• Cashflow

• Net Present Worth)int1/()( ,

tTimei

i tti TCICFNPW +−= ∑ ∑

tiiitititi TOCTaxFCIDepvvCF ,,,, ]*)*(Re[Re −−−=

)),,,(*)((Re ,, tij

ti TOCtkjixkSellv −= ∑

tkik

tii FxCostFCI ,,, AddProd*∑+= α

Page 55: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Market DemandMarket Demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

PEMFCSOFCPAFC

Project Lifetime

Num

ber o

f Fue

l Cel

ls

Page 56: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Projected Sales Projected Sales

Project Lifetime

Num

ber o

f Fue

l Cel

ls

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

PEMFCSOFCPAFC

Page 57: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Cash Flow PredictionsCash Flow Predictions

-50.00

-40.00

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

TCI

Project Lifetime

Cas

hflo

w(m

illio

n $)

Page 58: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Breakeven ChartBreakeven Chart

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Time

Cum

ulat

ive

Cas

hflo

w(m

illio

n $)

Breakeven PointTCI

Page 59: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Deterministic Model ResultsDeterministic Model Results

• Plant Location: Wyoming• Plan to increase production other year• FCI: $35,789,500• TCI: $41,157,930• NPW: $83,154,900• ROI: 23%

Page 60: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Presentation OutlineBusiness Overview and Market Analysis

Kristen Martinez

Technology OverviewThu Nguyen

Fuel Cell AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Fuels and Gas ReformingJustice Diven

Process Flowsheet and Equipment CostsEric Daugherty

Tax, Labor, and Transportation AnalysisJennifer Treece

Mathematical Model and Economic AnalysisLola Soyebo

Uncertainty and Risk AnalysisCaroline Ihejiawu

Page 61: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Risk and UncertaintyRisk and UncertaintyUncertain Parameters• Raw Material Costs• Equipment Cost• Selling Price

Examined 3 Scenarios

Deviated 20% around the mean values

Page 62: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-2.E+08 -1.E+08 0.E+00 1.E+08 2.E+08 3.E+08 4.E+08 5.E+08 6.E+08

HighMediumLow

NPW ($)

Pro

babi

lity

Page 63: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Stochastic ModelingStochastic ModelingMAXIMIZE Net Present Value considering all possible

scenarios of the uncertain parameters

Page 64: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Stochastic AnalysisStochastic Analysis

.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

-24807863.3 273573.48 121063714 139592458 184526327 201564245 342581655 357054225 389039274 483837044

NPW ($)

Prob

abili

ty

Page 65: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Thank you.Any

Questions?

Page 66: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Extra Slides

Page 67: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Process Equipment Process Equipment

Courtesy of Global Thermoelectric Inc.

Page 68: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Manufacturing Process for

PEMFC

Page 69: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Raw Materials for PEMFCRaw Materials for PEMFC

2,700Catalyst

17,400Electrode

187,500Hardware

Cost ($)Component

Total manufacturing cost = $576,600

Page 70: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Revenue PredictionsRevenue Predictions

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Project Lifetime

Rev

enue

(mill

ion

$)

Page 71: Fuel Cells for Stationary Power Generation · 7OL 2

Still more questions?