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FRONTLINE LTD. An industry leader in the energy market selling at P/E 3 for 2001 estimates. Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference March 21st - 2001

FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

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Page 1: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

FRONTLINE LTD.An industry leader in the energy market

selling at P/E 3 for 2001 estimates.

Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference March 21st - 2001

Page 2: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The Company

Page 3: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The Stock

ING Barings Conference � 2000

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190ja

n. 0

0

feb.

00

mar

. 00

apr.

00

mai

. 00

jun.

00

jul.

00

aug.

00

sep.

00

okt.

00

nov.

00

des.

00

jan.

01

feb.

01

mar

. 01

Page 4: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The Fleet

� Oldest ship from 1990� Average age � 6 years �

Industry Average 12,5years.

� Percentage double hulltonnage : 70 % - IndustryAverage 40 %

� Market share of modernspot market incl. Poolparticipators :Approximately 40 %

29 + 3 N/B VLCCs

20 + 2 N/B Suezmaxes

8 Suezmax OBOs

= 14 million dwt. or approximately 100 million barrels transport capacity.

Page 5: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The Profit & Loss - EBITDA

Q4 99 Q4 00 2000 199953,6 249,5 Net operating revenues 599,9 253,2

0,0 0,7 Gain / loss on sale of vessels

1,2 -37,8

32,1 37,4 Total expenses 132,1 136,2

21,5 212,8 Operating profit 469 79,2

before depreciation (EBITDA)

20,0 29,8 Depreciation 92,6 91,4

1,5 183,0 Operating profit (EBIT) 376,1 -12,2

-20,0 -1,8 Financial items -62,2 -78,9

-18,6 181,3 Net profit (loss) before min. & taxes

313,9 -91,2

0,0 0,0 Minority 0 4,2

-18,6 181,2 Net profit 313,9 -86,9

-0,31 2,29 EPS 4,28 -1,79 -50,0

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00US

D m

illio

n

All numbers in USD million

Page 6: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The Balance Sheet

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Assets Liab & Equity

USD

mill

ion

Cash Frontline Vessels Golden Ocean VesselsOther assets Trading Liabilities Frontline MortgageGolden Ocean Mortgage Equity

Page 7: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

What makes us different ?

� The leading industry consolidator.� A pure crude oil transportation play.� The world�s largest independent tanker fleet.� All ships built after 1990.� Big operating leverage.� Low ship operating and G&A costs.� Insider ownership 46%.

Page 8: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Five excuses for not buying shipping shares� and why they don�t work out..

Page 9: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Ecconomic Recession�I am afraid of the reduced demand for

oil as a function of the current recession.�

MBD

50

60

70

80

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000

World Oil Consumption 1985-2000

Page 10: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

OPEC Cut�Tanker rates will tumble as a functionof the decision to cut OPEC production.�

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

0,90

0,92

0,94

0,96

0,98

1,00

1,02

1,04

1,06

1,08

1,10

BARSCOMPARED WITH ANNUAL AVERAGE OPEC

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

LINESCOMPARED WITH ANNUAL AVERAGE VLCC

1986-92 OPEC OUTPUT1993-98 OPEC OUTPUT

1986-92 VLCC RATES1993-98 VLCC RATES

SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN OPEC OUTPUTQUARTERLY PRODUCTION VS ANNUAL AVERAGE

INDEX

Production Forecast 2001

24,0

25,0

26,0

27,0

28,0

29,0

30,0

1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01

Page 11: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Yard Capacity

� No significant additional capacity can beadded to the market before the latter part of2003 or first part of 2004.

� Japanese yards are reducing capacity.� LNG Newbuilding projects absorb VLCC

building berths.

�The Yards capacity will always limit the upside in the market.�

Page 12: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Over supply�The old ladies will never leave�

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20090

10

20

30

40

MILL DWTIMO DRAFT OCTOBER 2000:PHASE-OUT OF SINGLE HULL TANKERSCATEGORY 1: PRE-MARPOL TANKERS ( NO SBT/PL)

Building year Year to be phased out1973 or earlier 20021974-75 20031976-77 20041978-80 20051981 or later 2006CATEGORY 2: MARPOL TANKERS (SBT/PL)

The draft under this category will most likely be revised inorder to comply with Category 1. If so:

Building year Year to be phased out1980 or earlier As for Category 11981 20061982 20071983 20081984 2009

3 %

9 %

12 %

7 %

4 %

1 % 1 % 1 %

Percent of existing fleet

Bars indicate volumesto be phased outwithin the end of theyear

NEW PHASE-OUT SCHEMETANKERS 10,000 DWT+

Page 13: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Bad liquidity

01

23

45

67

89

Frontline TK OSG OMI

�I can not move my equity position inshipping shares due to limited liquidity.�

$ mill

Daily trading value in USD million

Page 14: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The reasons to invest

Page 15: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The macro trend

� Growth in world wide oil consumption approximately 1,7 %.� Strong demand increases in areas without additional production

capacity.( China � India.)� Build up of refinery capacity in developing countries creates need for

crude feed.� Middle East oil production is gaining market share.� North Sea and US production are expecting to level off.� An ageing fleet, new rules � combined with stricter practise from oil

companies create need for modernisation.

Page 16: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The renewal case

8687

8889

9091

9293

9495

9697

9899

00 0102

0304

05

0

10

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

MILL. DWT

DELIVERIES OF TANKERS

.

.DELIVERIES OF NEW TANKERS

TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DELIVERIES IN 2001 APPR 28 MILL DWTPER YEAR ARE NEEDED IN 2002 - 2005.

NEED FOR REPLACEMENT OF OLD TANKERS

ACCORDING TO THE RECENT IMO /MEPC 45 DRAFT88 MILL DWT MUST BE REMOVED FROM THE FLEET BETWEEN JAN 2001 AND JAN 2006 IE AN ANNUAL AVERAGE OF 18 MILL DWT PER YEAR OR 15 MILL DWT PER YEAR OF NEWBUILDINGS.

TO COVER OIL TRADE GROWTH

BASED ON 3.7% ANNUAL GROWTH IN TONNAGE DEMAND SOME 10 MILL DWT PER YEAR ARE REQUIRED. (2.7% PA IN 1990s)

IN THE 2001-2005 PERIOD 25 MILL DWT PER YEAR ARE NEEDED

Page 17: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The relative pricing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

P/E 2000 P/E 2001 P/E 2002 EV/Ebitda2001

EV/Ebitda2002

Tanker Average Contract drilling Offshore Supply Vessel

P/E - EV/EBITDA INDUSTRY COMPARISON

0

5

10

15

20

25

P/E 4 Q P/E 2000 P/E 2001 P/E 2002 EV/Ebitda 2000

Frontline OSG OMI TK

P/E -EV/EBITDA Shipping Companies

Page 18: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

$ PER DAY FOR OLD VLCC

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

$ PER DAY FOR MODERN VLCC

.

.

CORRELATION BETWEEN RATES FOR MODERN AND RATES FOR OLD VLCCsWEEKLY 2000

The downside protection

R.S. PlatouEconomic Research a.s

Modern VLCC rate = USD 30.000 p/d

Suezmax rate = USD 23.000 p/dNet Income Frontline = USD 130 million

CORRESPONDINGFLOOR FORMODERN UNITS

ASSUMED MINIMUM LEVEL FOR OLD VLCCs("SURVIVAL RATES")

Page 19: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Break Even Cash RatesAverage Frontline ship

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

VLCC Suezmax

US

D p

er

day

Operating Costs Interest Installment Lease payments

Page 20: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Rates vs. OutputCORRELATION BETWEEN OPEC OUTPUT AND VLCC RATES

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

OPEC CRUDE PRODUCTION

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

VLCC SPOT RATES

.

.

MONTHLY 1998-2001

NOV 00

OCT 00

SEP 00AUG 00

JUL 00

NOV 99

FEB 98

ACTIVE VLCC FLEET IS 6% LARGERIN 2000Q4 THAN IN 1998Q1

R2=0.82

JUN 00MAY 00

APR 00

MAR 00

FEB 00JAN 00

DEC 99 OCT 99

JUL 98

AUG 98

DEC 00

JAN 01

FEB 01

R.S. PlatouEconomic Research a.s

Page 21: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Frontline � Currently a cash maschine

Development in Cash Position

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

USD

mill

ion

Low 30 / 23 Med 45 / 35 1 st. Quarter 2001 - 60 / 40 4 rd. Quarter - 2000 - 68 / 50

Current Market Cap.

Page 22: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Final Comments

Page 23: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Frontline Strategy 2001

� Integrate Golden Ocean into Frontline. Includes fullintegration of 5 off balance sheet VLCCs.

� Minor fleet adjustments.� Consider major merger alternatives.� Keep a high payout ratio.� Implement NYSE listing of ordinary shares.� Develop more contract business to show long term

earnings stability.

Page 24: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Our Market Scenario � One year ago

�We are in the beginning of a two to three year strong cyclical upswing inthe crude tanker market. The world-wide economic growth, and thecurrent oil storage situation will force increased OPEC - AGproduction. Together with a fixed order book, an over aged fleet, andnew rules and market practice as a function of �Erica� incidents, thiswill tighten the utilisation. The increased utilisation will push freightrates significantly and put upwards pressure on second - hand prices.

The positive development has been delayed by the Asian Crisis andartificial low OPEC production. However it will be kick started whenOPEC in the next weeks is expected to open for more production.

The consolidation in the industry has just started. The development inthe chartering markets as well as in the capital market will force M&Aactivities. Frontline will as it has since 1996 seek to lead this trend.�

Tor Olav Trøim - Frontline ManagementNew York - March 2000

Page 25: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

Our market view - Today

� Contiued strong market for the next 3 � 5 year periode with potentialfor new rate peaks this autumn when OPEC increase production.

� Current fleet composition creates USD 30,000 p/d VLCC �floor� forthe next five year period.

� Growth in crude oil import in Asia and increased production fromMEG will be important tonnage demand forces.

� The continued strong spot market will increase S&P activity as well asgive more opportunities for long term charter and strategic deals withmajor oil companies.

� The new IMO rules will be adopted.� Major players will seek further consolidation.� OPECs new production philosophy will increase seasonal volatility.

Frontline Ltd. - New York 21st March �2001.

Page 26: FRONTLINE LTD.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference ... The Company. The Stock ING Barings Conference Œ 2000 30 50 70 90 110

The research confirms potential

EPS 2001 Target$ per share $ per share

� Enskilda 5.51 28� ING Barings 5.85 38� Jefferies 6.00 36� Lehman 4.69 25� Morgan Stanley 4.30 25� ABM/AMBRO 4.60 25