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Frontier Emerging Markets Equity Year End 2017 Review

Frontier Emerging Markets Equity - hardingloevner.com · safaricom kenya tcom 4.3 alicorp peru stpl 3.1 banco macro argentina fina 3.4 square pharmaceuticals bangladesh hlth 2.8 credicorp

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Page 1: Frontier Emerging Markets Equity - hardingloevner.com · safaricom kenya tcom 4.3 alicorp peru stpl 3.1 banco macro argentina fina 3.4 square pharmaceuticals bangladesh hlth 2.8 credicorp

Frontier Emerging Markets EquityYear End 2017 Review

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3 MONTHS 1 YEAR 3 YEARS1 5 YEARS1 SINCE INCEPTION1,2

HL FRONTIER EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY (gross of fees) 5.91 27.33 3.59 7.63 1.99

HL FRONTIER EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY (net of fees) 5.56 25.62 2.10 6.09 0.56

MSCI FRONTIER EMERGING MARKETS INDEX3,4 5.07 27.19 3.21 4.34 -0.96

Performance (% Total Return)

FRONTIER EMERGING MARKETS COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY

2

The performance returns shown are preliminary.

The Frontier Emerging Markets Composite contains fully discretionary, fee paying frontier emerging markets accounts investing in non-US equity and equity equivalent securities of companies domiciled predominantly in frontierand smaller emerging markets countries with the objective of long-term capital appreciation. For comparison purposes, the Composite is measured against the MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index (gross of foreign withholdingtaxes). Harding Loevner LP is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Harding Loevner is an affiliate of Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (NYSE: AMG), an investment holding company withstakes in a diverse group of boutique firms. Harding Loevner claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). Harding Loevner has been independently verified for the period November 1, 1989 throughSeptember 30, 2017. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm’s policy and procedures are designed tocalculate and present performance in compliance with GIPS standards. Performance data quoted represents past performance; past performance does not guarantee future results. Returns are presented both gross and net ofmanagement fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Net returns are calculated using actual fees. The US dollar is the currency used to express performance. For complete information on the construction and historicalrecord of the Frontier Emerging Markets Composite, please contact Harding Loevner at 908-218-7900 or visit www.hardingloevner.com. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available uponrequest.

Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

1Annualized Returns; 2Inception date: May 31, 2008; 3The Benchmark Index; 4Gross of withholding taxes.

As of December 31, 2017

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52.8

87.6

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

18.1

6.4

19.5

2.7

8.9

12.915.3

3.8

16.9

4.2

14.0

2.7

8.29.6

11.0

0.70

10

20

Profit Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity Debt/Equity Std Dev of ROE Trailing 5-Yr Sales Growth

Trailing 5-Yr Earnings Growth

Trailing 5-Yr Cash Flow

Growth

Trailing 5-Yr Dividend Growth

HL Frontier Emerging Markets MSCI FEM Index

Faster GrowthHigher Quality

More Profitable Lower Risk

3

Per

cent

Source: FactSet. Growth and volatility metrics are based on five-year historical data; the other ratios are based on the most recent annual data. All metrics and ratios are presented as weighted medians. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

A PORTFOLIO OF HIGH-QUALITY, GROWING COMPANIESAs of December 31, 2017

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0

10

20

30

40

50

Ret

urn

(%)

Quality Rank Quintiles Growth Rank Quintiles

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Ret

urn

(%)

Quality Rank Quintiles Growth Rank Quintiles

4

Source: FactSet. Data as of December 31, 2017. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

MSCI FEM INDEX TOTAL RETURNS BY QUALITY, GROWTH, AND VALUE RANK

4Q17Highest-quality, fast-

growing and most expensive stocks

outperformed.

2017 Fastest-growing, and

most expensive stocks have outperformed.

Value Rank Quintiles

Value Rank Quintiles

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BENCHMARK SECTOR/REGION RETURNS

5

ENER

INFT

STPL

RLST

MATS

HLTH

HL FEM COMPOSITE

MSCI FEM INDEX

INDU

FINA

UTIL

TCOM

DSCR

Source: FactSet; Data as of December 31, 2017.Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

ASIA

EUROPE

HL FEM COMPOSITE

LATAM

MSCI FEM INDEX

AFRICA

MIDEAST

GULF

Sector Total Return (%) Region Total Return (%)

-5.8

2.6

2.6

5.1

5.2

5.9

6.1

10.2

-8.0 -4.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0

-20.7

-0.4

2.7

3.1

4.3

5.1

5.9

6.0

7.4

8.2

15.8

15.9

18.5

-22.0 -11.0 0.0 11.0 22.0

Fourth Quarter

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PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION | COMPOSITE VS BENCHMARKFourth Quarter

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

TCOM FINA INDU HLTH INFT MATS UTIL DSCR CASH STPL ENER RLST

Selection Effect Allocation Effect Total Effect

TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS TO ABSOLUTE RETURNS

ECOPETROL

HOA PHAT GROUP

VIETNAM DAIRY PRODUCTS

GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA

ALICORP

Sector

“Composite”: Frontier Emerging Markets Composite. “Benchmark”: MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index. 1Emerging markets or frontier markets companies listed in developed markets.Past performance does not guarantee future results. Sector and Region Attribution and Contributors and Detractors are shown as supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant Frontier Emerging Markets Composite GIPS Presentation. The portfolio holdings identified above do not represent all of the securities held in the portfolio. It should not be assumed that investment in the securities identified has been or will be profitable. The following information is available upon request: (1) information describing the methodology of the contribution data and (2) a list showing the weight and contribution of all holdings during the quarter. Contribution is the contribution to overall performance over the period. Contributors and detractors exclude cash and securities in the Composite not held in the Model Portfolio. Quarterly data is not annualized. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

Effe

ct (%

)

TOP 5 DETRACTORS FROM ABSOLUTE RETURNS

EMAAR PROPERTIES

NOSTRUM OIL & GAS

BANCOLOMBIA

COMMERCIAL INTL BANK

ORIENTAL WEAVERS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

LATAM ASIA GULF AFRICA MIDEAST CASH EUROPE DEV MKTLISTED

Region

Effe

ct (%

)

1

Total Effect: 0.9Selection Effect: 1.1Allocation Effect: -0.2

Total Effect: 0.9Selection Effect: 1.3Allocation Effect: -0.4

6

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BENCHMARK SECTOR/REGION RETURNS

7

ENER

UTIL

INFT

STPL

RLST

FINA

HL FEM COMPOSITE

MSCI FEM INDEX

HLTH

INDU

TCOM

MATS

DSCR

Source: FactSet; Data as of December 31, 2017.Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

LATAM

EUROPE

HL FEM COMPOSITE

MSCI FEM INDEX

ASIA

AFRICA

GULF

MIDEAST

Sector Total Return (%) Region Total Return (%)

0.6

12.4

22.8

25.3

27.2

27.3

36.1

40.9

0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0

-0.8

15.0

23.1

24.8

26.3

27.2

27.3

27.6

28.4

28.9

39.3

40.1

44.9

-12.0 0.0 12.0 24.0 36.0 48.0

Trailing 12 Months

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PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION | COMPOSITE VS BENCHMARKTrailing 12 Months

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

FINA TCOM INDU DSCR MATS HLTH INFT CASH UTIL RLST STPL ENER

Selection Effect Allocation Effect Total Effect

TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS TO ABSOLUTE RETURNS

HOA PHAT GROUP

GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA

BANCO MACRO

SAFARICOM

HALYK SAVINGS BANK

Sector

“Composite”: Frontier Emerging Markets Composite. “Benchmark”: MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index. 1Emerging markets or frontier markets companies listed in developed markets.Past performance does not guarantee future results. Sector and Region Attribution and Contributors and Detractors are shown as supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant Frontier Emerging Markets Composite GIPS Presentation. The portfolio holdings identified above do not represent all of the securities held in the portfolio. It should not be assumed that investment in the securities identified has been or will be profitable. The following information is available upon request: (1) information describing the methodology of the contribution data and (2) a list showing the weight and contribution of all holdings during the quarter. Contribution is the contribution to overall performance over the period. Contributors and detractors exclude cash and securities in the Composite not held in the Model Portfolio. Data is not annualized. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

Effe

ct (%

)

TOP 5 DETRACTORS FROM ABSOLUTE RETURNS

NOSTRUM OIL & GAS

AGTHIA

MAPLE LEAF CEMENT

OLYMPIC INDUSTRIES

PAKISTAN PETROLEUM

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

AFRICA MIDEAST EUROPE ASIA LATAM GULF CASH DEV MKTLISTED

Region

Effe

ct (%

)

1

Total Effect: 0.5Selection Effect: 2.9Allocation Effect: -2.4

Total Effect: 0.5Selection Effect: 1.0Allocation Effect: -0.5

8

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COMPLETED PORTFOLIO TRANSACTIONS

COMPANY COUNTRY SECTOR COMPANY COUNTRY SECTOR

ROMGAZ ROMANIA ENER THERE WERE NO COMPLETE SALES IN THE QUARTER.

The portfolio is actively managed therefore holdings shown may not be current. The portfolio holdings identified above do not represent all of the securities held in the portfolio. It should not be assumed that investment in the securities identified has been or will be profitable. To request a complete list of portfolio holdings for the past year, contact Harding Loevner. Holdings are shown as supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant Frontier Emerging Markets Composite GIPS Presentation.Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

9

Positions Established Positions Sold

Fourth Quarter

Portfolio Turnover (5-yr avg annual): 28.3%

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1.1

0.3

2.7

9.9

9.8

17.4

19.1

39.7

1.0

0.0

2.7

8.7

10.3

17.0

24.9

35.4

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

CASH

MIDEAST

DEV MKTLISTED

EUROPE

GULF

AFRICA

LATAM

ASIA

12/31/2017 12/31/2016

PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION COMPARISON

10

Sector End Weights (%) Region End Weights (%)

1Emerging markets or frontier markets companies listed in developed markets. Sector and Region end weights are shown as supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant Frontier Emerging Markets Composite GIPS Presentation. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

December 31, 2017 vs December 31, 2016

1

1.1

0.0

1.3

2.7

4.2

1.9

7.1

7.6

7.9

13.0

19.4

33.8

1.0

0.0

2.7

4.0

4.7

5.6

6.5

7.4

8.4

9.3

16.5

33.9

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

CASH

UTIL

INFT

INDU

HLTH

RLST

ENER

TCOM

DSCR

MATS

STPL

FINA

12/31/2017 12/31/2016

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PORTFOLIO PROFILE END WEIGHTS

COMPANY COUNTRY SECTOR WT (%) COMPANY COUNTRY SECTOR WT (%)

HOA PHAT GROUP VIETNAM MATS 5.0 SM PRIME HOLDINGS PHILIPPINES RLST 3.1

SAFARICOM KENYA TCOM 4.3 ALICORP PERU STPL 3.1

BANCO MACRO ARGENTINA FINA 3.4 SQUARE PHARMACEUTICALS BANGLADESH HLTH 2.8

CREDICORP PERU FINA 3.3 ECOPETROL COLOMBIA ENER 2.8

GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA ARGENTINA FINA 3.1 JOLLIBEE FOODS PHILIPPINES DSCR 2.6

11

Ten Largest Holdings – Total Weight 33.5%

As of December 31, 2017

61% Active Share

SECTOR HL % FEMI % (UNDER)/OVER

STPL 16.5 7.2

DSCR 8.4 1.1

HLTH 4.7 1.5

MATS 9.3 6.7

INFT 2.7 0.5

CASH 1.0 ‒ENER 6.5 6.1

TCOM 7.4 9.1

UTIL 0.0 3.8

RLST 5.6 9.7

INDU 4.0 8.4

FINA 33.9 45.9

(12.0) (6.0) 0.0 6.0 12.0

REGION HL % FEMI % (UNDER)/OVER

EUROPE 8.7 5.1

DEV MKT LISTED1 2.7 ‒

AFRICA 17.0 15.0

CASH 1.0 ‒

ASIA 35.4 36.1

GULF 10.3 11.6

MIDEAST 0.0 1.9

LATAM 24.9 30.3

(12.0) (6.0) 0.0 6.0 12.0

Current Frontier Markets exposure in the portfolio is 54.8% and Emerging Markets exposure is 44.2%.1Emerging markets or frontier markets companies listed in developed markets. Sector and Region weights, holdings, and active share are shown as supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant Frontier Emerging Markets Composite GIPS Presentation. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

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FIRM PROFILE

12

37 investment professionals Frontier Emerging Markets Portfolio Management Team averages 8 years at

Harding Loevner

As of December 31, 2017

Data as of December 31, 2017. Total AUM includes all the assets under management and is presented as supplemental information.Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

OUR GLOBAL CLIENTELEOUR GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGIES

Total AUM $62B

21%

46%

31%

1%

1%

Global

International (non-US)

Emerging Markets

International SmallCompanies

Frontier EmergingMarkets

10%2%

4%

<1%

9%

75%

Asia Pacific

Canada

Europe

Latin America &Caribbean

Middle East & Africa

United States

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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

13

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CURRENCY RETURNS

14

2016 vs 2017

Source: Bloomberg; Data as of December 31, 2017. *MSCI changed the classification of Pakistan from Frontier Markets to Emerging Markets on June 1, 2017.

Developed Market Emerging Market

Frontier Market

2016 Currency Returns 2017 Currency Returns

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%

Bangladeshi Taka

Pakistani Rupee

Philippine Peso

Vietnamese Dong

Nigerian Naira

Moroccan Dirham

Egyptian Pound

Thai Baht

Croatian Kruna

Euro

Romanian Leu

Kenyan Shilling

Peruvian New Sol

Tanzanian Shilling

Colombian Peso

Ukrainian Hryvnia

Argentine Peso

Kazakhstani Tenge

Return (%)-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Bangladeshi Taka

Pakistani Rupee

Philippine Peso

Vietnamese Dong

Nigerian Naira

Moroccan Dirham

Egyptian Pound

Thai Baht

Croatian Kruna

Euro

Romanian Leu

Kenyan Shilling

Peruvian New Sol

Tanzanian Shilling

Colombian Peso

Ukrainian Hryvnia

Argentine Peso

Kazakhstani Tenge

Return (%)

Developed Market Emerging Market

Frontier Market

*

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PORTFOLIO WEIGHT BY QUALITY AND GROWTH QUINTILES

15

Trailing 12 Months

Source: FactSet; Data as of December 31, 2017.

Weight by Quality Rank Quintiles Weight by Growth Rank Quintiles

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12/31/2016 3/31/2017 6/30/2017 9/30/2017 12/31/20170%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12/31/2016 3/31/2017 6/30/2017 9/30/2017 12/31/2017

Top 2 Quintiles Bottom 2 QuintilesMiddle Quintile

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VALUATION RETURNS AND MARGINS

16

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2017. Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation.

Return on Equity Trailing 12M Operating Margin Price Earnings Ratio (P/E)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q4 2008 Q4 2010 Q4 2012 Q4 2014 Q4 2016

P/E R

atioPer

cent

MSCI FEM

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q4 2008 Q4 2010 Q4 2012 Q4 2014 Q4 2016

P/E R

atioPer

cent

MSCI FM

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The information provided in this Presentation should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security. Unless otherwise stated, non-performance based criteria have been used to select the securities listed. The portfolio is actively managed therefore securities shown may not be current. It should not be assumed that investment in the securities identified has been or will be profitable. To request a complete list of portfolio holdings for the past year contact Harding Loevner.

Investing in stocks entails the risks of market volatility. The value of all types of stocks may increase or decrease over varying time periods. To the extent the investments depicted herein represent international securities, you should be aware that there may be additional risks associated with international investing, including foreign economic, political, monetary and/or legal factors, changing currency exchange rates, foreign taxes, and differences in financial and accounting standards.

Quality Growth Characteristics, Benchmark Returns, Performance Attribution, Portfolio Profile, and Portfolio Transactions are shown as supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant Frontier Emerging Markets Composite GIPS Presentation.

The MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure equity market performance in all countries from the MSCI Frontier Markets Index and the lower size spectrum of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The Index consists of 29 frontier markets and 5 emerging markets. The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure global developed market equity performance. The Index consists of 23 developed market countries. The MSCI Frontier Markets Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of frontier markets. The Index consists of 29 frontier market countries. You cannot invest directly in these Indexes.

Profit Margin: relationship of gross profits to net sales. Return on Assets: net income for past 12 months divided by total assets. Return on Equity: the net income divided by total common equity outstanding, expressed as a percent. Debt/Equity Ratio: total long-term debt divided by total shareholder’s equity. Sales Per Share: the total revenue earned per share over a 12-month period, net of returns, allowances, and discounts. Earnings Per Share: portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. Cash Flow: a measure of the cash generating capability of a company calculated by adding non-cash charges (e.g. depreciation) and interest expense to pretax income. Dividend Per Share: a total dividends per share paid during the previous fiscal year. Active Share: the proportion of holdings by weight that differ from holdings of the benchmark index. Price/Earnings Ratio: the ratio of a firms closing stock price and its trailing 12 months earnings per share.

Harding Loevner’s Quality, Growth, and Value rankings are proprietary measures determined using objective data. Quality rankings are based on the stability, trend, and level of profitability, as well as balance sheet strength. Growth rankings are based on historical growth of earnings, sales, and assets, as well as expected changes in earnings and profitability. Value rankings are based on several valuation measures, including price ratios.

The Composite and Attribution returns may show discrepancies due to the different data sources for these returns. Composite performance is obtained from Harding Loevner’s accounting system and Attribution returns are obtained from the FactSet portfolio analysis system. Please note returns from FactSet are not audited for GIPS compliance and are for reference only.

Source (Benchmark Performance, Performance Attribution, Contributors and Detractors) FactSet; Harding Loevner Frontier Emerging Markets Composite; MSCI Inc. and S&P.Source (Portfolio Profile, Portfolio Transactions, Historical End Weights, Quality-Growth Characteristics [Run date: January 4, 2018]): FactSet; Harding Loevner Frontier Emerging Markets Model; MSCI Inc.

MSCI Inc. and S&P do not make any express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any GICS data contained herein.FactSet Fundamentals, Copyright 2018 FactSet Research Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

DISCLOSURES

17