From Copenhagen to Cancun

Yulia DobrolyubovaExpert on climate change and the Kyoto protocol,Russian Regional Environmental Centre (RREC)

REC Training for state negotiators on the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol Szentendre, 12-13 July 2010

Bali Action Plan Shared vision• Mitigation• Adaptation• Financing• Technology development and transfer

A Road to Copenhagen

Rio (1992) – Kyoto (1997) – Bali action plan (2007) Rio (1992) – Kyoto (1997) – Bali action plan (2007) - preparing for Copenhagen in 2008-2009 - preparing for Copenhagen in 2008-2009

Goals • To establish a global emission reduction pathway after 2012• Developed countries to take commitments on deep emission cuts• Developing countries to provide actions on the emission reductions• MRV mechanism for emission reduction commitments and actions• Financial support from developed countries

Proposed emission cuts by scientists

– To limit the global temperature rise to 2 °C

– For Annex I: 25-40% below the 1990 level in 2020

– For non-Annex I: 15-30% deviation from baseline in 2020

HOPEngagen: Expectations from Copenhagen

• Developed countries: A new single agreement, no future for KP without the US Mitigation commitments for developed, actions for developing

countries, both monitored, reported and verified (MRV)

• Developing countries: Continuation of the two-track negotiations under the UNFCCC

(AWG-LCA) and Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) Full implementation of the Convention in terms of financial

and technological support from developed countries Only supported actions of developing countries are subject to

MRV, voluntary reporting on domestic actions

Developed vs. Developing Countries

Developed vs. Developing Countries

• Held in Copenhagen from 7-18 December 2009

• Culmination of a two-year negotiating process under the Bali action plan for post-2012 framework

• Aim for a politically binding agreement for post 2012 period

• Attended by 115 heads of state/government, including US, China, Russia -> largest gathering outside of New York

• Unprecedented public and media attention with, more than 40,000 participants (in premises designed for 15,000)

SCOOPenhagen: the major climate event ever

"The international sound and light show otherwise known as Copenhagen“

(Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister of Australia)

“Super high-level side-event”

• no serious progress in negotiations until arrival of heads of state and government

• at some point negotiations were conducted at three levels: technical, ministerial, heads of state/government

• 29 heads of states drafted the text

• 5 countries decided the outcome on the margins of the UNFCCC process - US, China, India, South Africa, Brazil

• The Copenhagen Accord as a main COP-15 outcome

What was included in the Copenhagen AccordMitigation• Pledges to fight climate change by preventing the temperature rise by

more than 2°C• Annex I countries: quantified economy-wide targets for 2020• Non-Annex I countries: Nationally appropriate mitigation actions

subject to domestic measurement, reporting, and verification which will be reported every two years

Adaptation• Prepare comprehensive adaptation programme for vulnerable

countries• Provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources,

technology and capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action

What was included in the Copenhagen Accord

Financing• Provide developing countries with new and additional resources

of USD 30 billion for 2010~2012 with balanced allocation between adaptation and mitigation

• Mobilize USD 100 billion a year by 2020 from private, public and other alternative sources

• Establish the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund as an operating entity of the financial mechanism

• Establish a high-level panel to study potential sources of revenue

Technology transfer • Establish a Technology Mechanism to accelerate technology

development and transfer

Recognition of REDD+

• Copenhagen Accord was not officially adopted by COP, only noted (objections in plenary to adopt “a deal“ - Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Cuba as well as Tuvalu blocked the agreement) -> lack of transparency of decision-making process

• Not a legally binding document, more like a high-level political declaration

Weak spot of the Copenhagen Accord:

HOPEnhagen or NOPEnhagen?• Climate change was raised to the highest political level

• Strong message of political intent to tackle climate change

• The "political" solution to deadlock in negotiations -> Copenhagen Accord is a concrete step for making the negotiation process move forwards

• Many countries noted the inefficiency of the UNFCCC negotiation process and the need for its improvement

• Unclear future of the Kyoto protocol

• Split in G77 - emergence of new BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India, China)

A Road to Cancun COP 16/CMP 6 (29 November – 10 December, Cancun)

• General consent to continue negotiations under the UNFCCC, not outside the process

• Sessions in Bonn (April, June, August) and Beijing (October):

– AWG‐LCA : how to include Copenhagen Accord provisions into LCA negotiation text

– AWG‐KP : workshops and discussions on loopholes

• Further informal consultations by Mexico, i.a. on legal form of an agreement

A Road to Cancun: unresolved issues• address the substantial gaps in the present proposals (current

developed countries pledges account only for reduction -13 to -17% by 2020 compared to 1990, when science requires -25 to -40%)

• LULUCF accounting rules need to be resolved

• integrate the elements of the Copenhagen Accord in decision texts, and make them operational, including:

– MRV

– Finance: how to institutionalize the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund

– Strengthening market mechanisms

– Mechanisms and frameworks on adaptation, REDD+, technology transfer

Cancun = Copenhagen 2?

“I’ll be back!”

A few tips to future negotiators

Homework Read the documents - UNFCCC - Kyoto Protocol - Bali Action Plan - Copenhagen Accord - Former decisions under agenda item

you follow

Prepare your national position - Guidelines for delegation members - Submissions - National statements

Bilaterals with other Parties Form coalitions (permanent or

on specific issues)

Work during the session Good coordination (head of

delegation, advisor) Each member should

understand his/her role in the process:

- the key agenda items for your country that require attention

- regional and interest group meetings - bilaterals Regular consultations within

delegation - morning briefings after looking at the

Daily Programme - evening sum-ups and shaping position

for tomorrow - interchangeability of members

Thank you for your attention!

YULIA DOBROLYUBOVA

Phone/Fax: +7-916-659-8352

e-mail: dobrolubova@rusrec.ru

www.rusrec.ru, www.climatechange.ru

A Road to Cancun: financial issues• Progress in Bonn:– The New Fund: convergences among parties on the need to establish a new fund under the COP

– Institutional arrangements: convergences on functions needed and on the idea that some functions could be entrusted to existing institutions

– Fast Start Finance: the EU as well as other A1 countries made a preliminary report on their actions

• Outstanding issues/Next steps:– Reach a COP decision creating the New Fund and defining its core elements

– Reach a COP decision regarding institutions (functions, Body/Panel)

– Sources: build on the high-level group report to feed the UNFCCC process

– Fast start finance: present a transparent and comprehensive report