From Cholera to ComplexityFrom Cholera to Complexityto Society:to Society:A Journey of Many DimensionsA Journey of Many Dimensions

Dr. Rita Colwell, DirectorDr. Rita Colwell, DirectorNational Science FoundationNational Science Foundation

Fractal images: Martin Golubitsky, Univ. of Houston http://www.math.uh.edu/~chaos/

Two microscopic pictures of cholera bacteria

CholeraCholera

Source: Dr. Rita Colwell

Cholera Statistics, 2000*

Continent Total Cases Total Deaths

Africa

America(s)

Asia**

Europe

Oceania

118,932

3,101

11,246

35

3,757

4,610

40

232

0

26

Total 137,071 4,908

**Does not include Bangladesh, Pakistan and other countries.Source: World Health Organization

*Data published in August, 2001

Historic map of cholera pandemics

Source: Dr. Rita Colwell

The graphic shows the continents of the world and traces the route in which cholera spread in recent outbreak years. In general, the disease travels along continental edges, around Africa in the mid 1960s and 1970s; in Oceania and Southeast Asia in the early 1960s, 1970s, early 1980s, and 1990; the Middle East and Eastern Europe in the mid 1960s; Central and South America in 1991; and the Gulf of Mexico in 1973.

Global Spread of Cholera, 1961-1991Global Spread of Cholera, 1961-1991

Source: CDC

Chesapeake Bay Cholera sampling Sites:Baltimore, Kent Island, Smithsonian, Horn Point Lab, Susquehanna Flats

Chesapeake BayChesapeake BayCholera Sampling SitesCholera Sampling Sites

U.S. Geological Survey

Source: Dr. Rita Colwell

Photo of a female Copepod, eggs of young larvea are clearly visible CopepodCopepod

Source: Dr. Rita Colwell

This graph plots the number of Vibrio cholerae found associated with Copepods in Bangladesh, from 1987-1992 – the detection was by Fluorescent Monoclonal Antibody methods. The plot shows peaks for Juveniles, Adults, and Nauplii in April; smaller Adult and Juvenile peaks in June (but a much larger Nauplii peak); a small Juvenile peak and a very large Nauplii peak in August; and small Adult and Juvenile peaks in November when there was another very large Nauplii peak.

Number of Vibrio cholerae Associated with Copepods Collected in Bangladesh, 1987-1992

(Detection by Fluorescent Monoclonal Antibody)

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Source: Dr. Rita Colwell

Correlation of Cholera outbreaks with increases in sea surface tempature and sea surface height. Graph shows data from Oct 92-Nove95.

Cholera Outbreaks and Increases inCholera Outbreaks and Increases inSea Surface Temperature (SST) andSea Surface Temperature (SST) and

Sea Surface Height (SSH)Sea Surface Height (SSH)

B. Lobitz et al. “Climate and infectious disease” PNAS (February 2000, vol. 97, no.4)

Photo showing woman using sari to filter drinking water

Source: Dr. Rita Colwell

Artistic photo collage in a spiral shape depicting integration and reductionism across the spatial scales, with small inset pictures beginning at the atomic (schematic atom), molecular (helix), cellular (cell), tissue, organ, organism (human figure), population (people), habitat (landscape), community (cityscape), ecosystem (satellite view of Florida), planetary (earth from space), and cosmos (spiral galaxy).

Ecosystem Change and Public Health:A Global Perspective, Chapter by Mark L. Wilson, pg. 286 fig. 10.1

NEONNEONFederal Research SiteFederal Research SiteNatural History CollectionNatural History Collection

Field StationField Station

UniversityUniversityResearch FacilityResearch Facility

NatureNatureConservancyConservancyPreservePreserve

USDAUSDAResearch StationResearch Station

National Wildlife RefugeNational Wildlife Refuge

National ParkNational Park

UniversityUniversity

Long Term Ecological Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) SiteResearch (LTER) Site

Painting by artist Rousseau surrounded by small images of various cutting-edge sensors NEON might employ

"Microbial earth;" Artistic depiction of Earth from space with continents and oceans made up of microbes.

Source: ASM/PBS 4 part series “Intimate Strangers”

● Searching for rare events instead of Searching for rare events instead of common patternscommon patterns

● Protecting systems from malicious Protecting systems from malicious attacks instead of random failuresattacks instead of random failures

● Combining data from many types of Combining data from many types of sourcessources

New Types of ProblemsNew Types of Problems

● Data mining for rare eventsData mining for rare events

● Computer, network, and physical Computer, network, and physical infrastucture securityinfrastucture security

● Detection and epidemiology of Detection and epidemiology of bioterrorist attacksbioterrorist attacks

● Voice and image recognitionVoice and image recognition

Challenges for Mathematics Challenges for Mathematics Research in Homeland SecurityResearch in Homeland Security

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Wrist rotationWrist rotationSource: J.B. Tenenbaum et al, http://isomap.stanford.edu/handfig.html

http://www.math.ucla.edu/~imagers/images/rec/lenna8.jpghttp://www.math.ucla.edu/~imagers/images/rec/lenna8.jpg

http://www.u-net.com/ph/naw96/img/m_rees.jpgwww.vampires-fr.com/ dracula.php3

Actor Christopher Lee as Count DraculaSir Martin Rees, British Astronomer Royal

How people are connected: How people are connected: contrasting social networkscontrasting social networks

Fractal images: Martin Golubitsky, Univ. of Houston http://www.math.uh.edu/~chaos/