From Aquino to AquinoTransitional Challenges and Presidential Leadership in Democratizing Philippines

Dr. Julio C. TeehankeeDe La Salle University

Manila, Philippines

The Puzzle?• In a developing democracy like the Philippines,

identifying the ineffectiveness of our presidents has become an obsession.

• “Pundits are quick to point out what is wrong, but short on explaining what is wrought.”►What can Philippine presidents actually do during

their term?►What factors prevents or enables them to provide

presidential leadership?►What is the impact of the presidential transition on

the rest of their term?

The Philippine Presidency• the most durable in the

Asian region• one of three

presidential systems in East Asia (South Korea & Indonesia)

• fifteen presidents since the first Philippine Republic was inaugurated in 1899

The Philippine Presidency: American Template

Personal ModelRichard Neustadt• presidents must

persuade• reputation,

prestige, perception, & judgement

• personal style

Regime ModelStephen Skowronek• presidents come to

power within regimes (institutional arrangement)

• structural pattern of regime change

• cycle of presidents within regimes

Structured Choice ModelRobert Lieberman• opportunities for

strategic presidential action within structurally defined & delimited situation

• structure & agency, regimes & choice

While the Philippine presidency is patterned

after the American template, it is rooted in

Latin American practices.

The Philippine Presidency: Latin American Parallelisms

The Philippine Presidency: Pangulo Regime

“Pangulo Regime”► supremacy of the

executive and puts premium on the value of pagdamay

►metaphor for the body politic

►Aguinaldo, Quezon, Laurel, Marcos

► legitimation for authoritarianism; partyless democracy

The Philippine Presidency: Democratization

1. transitional – teleological process towards democratic consolidation

2. changeless – no real process or progress, same-same

3. cyclical - regime establishment, development, challenge, decay, and new regime

Arguments

• Presidential Regimes and Presidential Time

• Campaign Narratives and Presidential Narratives

• Narrative Cycles in the Post Marcos Philippine Presidency

• Making Narratives Stick: The Role of Strategic Players and Coalition-building

Presidential Regimes• a president ascends to power within a particular set

of institutions or “regime” that largely shapes the presidential style of leadership.

• Regime – “commitments of ideology and interest embodied in pre-existing institutional arrangements.”

• Presidents find themselves facing different obstacles to leadership based on their relation to existing “regimes”

• Presidents are either builders, consolidators, articulators, or repudiators

Presidential Time

• The recurrence of regime orientations creates a structured context for presidential leadership within a pattern of “political time.”

• Political Time – “medium through which presidents received commitments of ideology and interest and claim authority to intervene in their development.”

• Successive presidents can face dramatically distinct political and institutional challenges.

• Presidential actions are determined by historically-articulated institutional configurations.

• But these configurations determine context, they do not determine action

• Presidents face strategic choices – choices given by institutionally configured situations

Presidential Leadership: Configuration & Choice

Narratives

Narratives - stories or discourses with a clear sequential order that connect events in a meaningful way. (Hinchman & Hinchman 1997)Political Narratives – narratives (i.e. "populist", "rich-versus-poor" and "reformist", "good governance“) used by politicians in the context of electoral democracy in the Philippines (Thompson 2010)Two Types: Campaign and Presidential NarrativesCycle of Narratives: reformist, developmentalist, and populist

The Philippine Presidency: Within the Prism of Political Time

Foundational Regimes1st Republic (1899-1901)American Colonial (1898-1943, 1945-46)2nd Republic (1943-45)

Definitive Regimes

3rd Republic (1946-1972)4th Republic (1972-1986)

Prevailing Regime5th Republic (1986-present)

Transitional Challenges Under the Post-Marcos Presidency

The Great Repudiator - founder of EDSA regime

Orthodox Innovator - competent ally

Populist Challenger - Marcos revivalist

Apostate – born from EDSA, mutated into Marcos

The Loyal Son – heir to the EDSA legacy

Role of Strategic Groups

1. Business – protectionist vs. global2. Church – conservative vs. progressive3. Civil Society – radical vs. moderate4. Military – professional vs. adventurists5. Politicians – traditional vs. issue-oriented

Making Narratives StickStrong Narrative, Stable Coalition

Strong Narrative, from Weak to Strong Coalition

Strong Narrative - from Strong to Weak Coalition

From Strong to Weak Narrative, Stable Coalition

Strong Narrative, Weakening Coalition?

Post-Marcos Presidency & the EDSA Regime

Thank you very much!