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Friday, April 21, 2023
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
OUSMANE BADIANE
Director for Africa
International Food Policy Research Institute
1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA
3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS
4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS
1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA
3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS
4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS
PRE-CRISIS ERA COINCIDED WITHLONGEST PERIOD OF SUSTAINED GROWTH SINCE 60S
-3
0
3
6
9
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Perc
en
t (%
)
Agriculture, value added (annual % grow th)
GDP grow th (annual %)
SOURCE: Badiane 2008: IFPRI Policy Brief No. 9
THE GROWTH IS ACCELERATINGAS WELL AS SPREADING GEOGRAPHICALLY
SOURCE: IFPRI / Badiane and UlimwenguData from national account s / UN database: http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA
THIS IS REFLECTED INBETTER PRODUCTIVITY AND TRADE PERFORMANCE
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
World Africa
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
World Africa
AFRICAN VS WORLD EXPORTS (VOLUME)
AFRICAN VS WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
Ind
ex
(19
70
=1
)
Value of Ag
Inputs
TFP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Ave
rage
ann
ual g
row
th r
ate
(%)
maize
rice
wheat
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AFRICA
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY WORLD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Per
cen
t (%
)
Current
MDG target
SOURCE: IFPRI/Fan. 2007H
POVERTY LEVELS HAVE STARTED TO DECLINEBUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO MEET MDG1
POVERTY HEAD COUNT; $1/DAY
1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA
3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS
4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS
THE GLOBAL FOOD PRICE CRISIS OF 2007-08
Source: J. von Braun; Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.
WAS THERE A FOOD PRICE CRISIS IN AFRICA?ECOWAS Countries
Source: ReSAKSS West Africa Node
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Sorghumdawanu Cowpeadawanu millet bamako rizdakar MilletNiamey
WAS THERE A FOOD PRICE CRISIS IN AFRICA?COMESA Countries
Source: ReSAKSS East Africa Node
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Fo
od
Pric
e In
dic
es
FAO global foodprice index
Ethiopia
Burundi
Kenya
Tanzania
Madagascar
Malawi
Zambia
Uganda
Rwanda
Source: IFPRI / M. Rosegrant (prelim. results with IMPACT-WATER).
0
100
200
300
2000 2005 2010 2015
Rice Wheat MaizeOilseeds Soybean
US$/ton
LONG TERM WORLD FOOD PRICE TRENDS AND GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA
India China Brazil Nigeria
Cereals 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.0
Meat 1.2 2.4 1.7 1.0
Milk 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.3
Fish 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.8
Fruits 1.3 3.5 0.8 1.1
Vegetables 1.3 2.9 1.3 1.3Source: IFPRI/ v. Braun - Data from FAO 2007.
2005/1990 ratios of per capita consumption
FACTORS BEHIND FOOD PRICE TRENDSINCOME & POPULATION GROWTH, MEAT AND DAIRY CONSUMPTION
0
300
600
900
1,200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Wheat Coarse grains Rice Total (right)
Source: IFPRI / v. Braun - Data from FAO 2003, 2005-08. * Forecast.
Million tons Total Million tons
FACTORS BEHIND FOOD PRICE TRENDSVERY SLOW GROWTH IN FOOD PRODUCTION OVER THE LAST DECADE
Individual Countries
DRC
CAR
RATIO VALUE AGRIC TRADE TO AGRIC GDP2000 - 2006
AFRICA
NOTES: Agricultural trade is the value of agricultural exports plus value of agricultural importsSOURCES: Agricultural trade: Food and Agriculture Organization, FOASTAT 2008 Agricultural value added: World Development Indicators, 2008
VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO GLOBAL MARKET CHANGES
1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA
3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS
4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS
THE IMPACT CHANNELS
1 RECESSION – EXPORT DEMAND - TERMS OF TRADE AG. REVENUES
3 FOREX AND FISCAL DEFICITS AG EXPENDITURE / INVESTMENT
2 LIQUIDITY TRAP – FDI – REMITTANCES -TRADE CREDIT AG. FINANCE
4 DOMESTIC AND ASSISTANCE POLICY RESPONSES SECTOR RESPONSE
IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON AGRICULTURE
IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS DEMAND, PRICES, AND AFRICAN EXPORTS
IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL EXPORTSIMPACT ON OVERALL AFRICAN EXPORTS
Source: IFPRI/Estrades and Laborde Price data from IMF World Economic Outlook
Page 19Source: IFPRI/Estrades and Laborde
Finance constraints (actual country estimates)
Page 20
Algeria
AngolaBenin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
C. Africa Rep.
C. IvoireCameroon
Cape Verde
Chad
Comoros
Congo
Congo (DRC)
Djibouti
Egypt
Eq. Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
G. Bissau
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
MadagascarMalawi Mali
MauritaniaMauritius
Morocco
MozambiqueNiger
Nigeria
Rwanda
S. Leone
S. Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Somalia
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
TunisiaUganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
-4-2
02
4L
og
of ag
ricu
ltura
l G
DP
0 2 4 6 8Log of Net FDI
FDI AND AGRICULTURAL SECTOR GROWTH IN AFRICA
Source: IFPRI/Badiane and Ulimwengu
Page 21
FINANCIAL CRISIS, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH
Algeria
AngolaB. Faso
Benin
BurundiC. African Rep.
C. Ivoire
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Chad
Comoros
Congo
DRC Djibouti
Egypt
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
MalawiMali
MauritaniaMorocco
MozambiqueNamibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
S. T.and Principe
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
-50
51
0A
gricu
ltura
l gro
wth
(%
)
0 50 100 150Per capita aid (us dollar)
1970-1980
Algeria
Angola
B. Faso
Benin
Burundi
C. African Rep.
C. Ivoire
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Chad
Comoros
CongoDRC DjiboutiEgypt
GambiaGhana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
KenyaLesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
S. T.and Principe
SenegalSierra Leone Somalia
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
-50
51
0A
gricu
ltura
l gro
wth
(%
)
0 50 100 150 200 250Per capita aid (us dollar)
1981-1990
Algeria
Angola
B. Faso
Benin
Burundi
C. African Rep.
C. IvoireCameroon Cape Verde
Chad
Comoros
Congo
DRC DjiboutiEgypt
GambiaGhana
Guinea Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Morocco
MozambiqueNamibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
S. T.and Principe
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sudan
Swaziland
TanzaniaTogoTunisiaUganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
-10
-50
51
0A
gricu
ltura
l gro
wth
(%
)
0 100 200 300 400Per capita aid (us dollar)
1991-1999
Algeria
Angola
B. FasoBenin
Burundi
C. African Rep.
C. Ivoire
Cameroon
Cape Verde
ChadComoros
Congo
DRC
Djibouti
Egypt GambiaGhanaGuinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
MadagascarMalawi
Mali
Mauritania
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
S. T.and Principe
Senegal
Sierra Leone
SomaliaSudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
TogoTunisiaUganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe-50
51
01
5A
gric
ultu
ral g
row
th (
%)
0 50 100 150 200 250Per capita aid (us dollar)
2000-2006
Source: IFPRI/Badiane and Ulimwengu
Page 22
MACROECONOMIC RAMIFICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN AFRICA
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
Page 23
THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA
3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS
4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS
Page 25
THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP)
PILLARFRAMEWORKS
SECTORCOMPACTS
KNOWLEDGESYSTEMS
BETTER POLICY, GROWTH, POVERTY, AND FOOD SECURITY OUTCOMES
STRATEGIC ISSUES
SUCCESS FACTORS
BEST PRACTICES
POLICY ELEMENTS
LT INVEST. OPTIONS
COMMITMENTS-SECTOR POLICIES
- BUDGET POLICIES
- DEV. ASSISTANCE
- POLICY DIALOGUE
BENCHMARKING
PEER REVIEW
MUTUAL LEARNING
SHARED LT FRAMEWORKFOR ACTION
DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP ANDACCOUNTABILITY
EVIDENCE/OUTCOMEBASED PLANNING AND
IMPLEMENTATION
1. MAKE SURE THAT THE COUNTRY IS ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE THE CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGETARY OBJECTIVES, IF NOT
2. IDENTIFY EVENTUAL GAPS IN TERMS OF SECTOR POLICY, BUDGETARY, AND INVESTMENT MEASURES
OBJECTIVES AND OUTCOMES OF COUNTRY ROUND TABLE AND COMPACT
OBJECTIVE OF ROUND TABLES
ELABORATION OF A COUNTRY CAADP COMPACT TO GUIDE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP IN THE LONG TERM , INCLUDING:
1. COMMITMENTS IN TERMS OF SECTOR POLICIES, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, AND DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
2. ESTABLISHEMENT OF PARTNERSHIPS AND ALLIANCES FOR SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP
3. CREATION OF A MECHANISM FOR PEER REVIEW AND DIALOGUE TO TRACK IMPEMENTATION PERFORMANCE AND THE PROGRESS IN MEETING THE AGREED ON COMMITEMENTS
OUTCOMES OF ROUND TABLES:CAADP COMPACT
CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES
I. DEVELOPED COMPREHENSIVE AND OBJECTIVE DRIVEN STRATEGY
FRAMEWORK WITH LIMITED SET OF CLEAR TARGETS
II. EVALUATE COUNTRY EFFORTS AGAINST DEFINED TARGETS SHARED INVESTMENT AND PARTNERSHIP
FRAMEWORK
III. SPECIFY ALTERNATIVE ACTION SCENARIOS AND OUTCOMESBASELINES - MILESTONES - ACTION TARGETS - TOOLS
IV. SET UP BENCHMARKING AND LEARNING MECHANISMSKNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS INFRASTRUCTURE
V. ESTABLISH POLICY REVIEW AND DIALOGUE PLATFORM
INCLUSIVE FORA AT COUNTRY LEVEL AND BEYOND
1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA
3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS
4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS
Actual Poverty Rate in 1990
LONG TERM CHALLENGE NO. 1
BRIDGING THE GROWTH GAP TO ACCELERATE POVERTY REDUCTION
LONG TERM CHALLENGE NO. 2
BRIDGING THE EXPENDITURE GAP TO ACCELERATE GROWTH
Actual Poverty Rate in 1990
Source: Dollar a Day Poverty Rates from World Bank, PovCal Net, 2008 [poverty line $1.25]; Projected CAADP Poverty Rates from various IFPRI country CAADP Growth Simulation Studies
THE EXPENDITURE CONVERGENCE AGENDA:MAXIMIZING SYNERGY BETWEEN GROWTH AND SOCIAL INVESTMENTS
Sources: Government spending: Global database on public spending, DSGD, IFPRI, 2009; and ODA: OECD, 2008
HEALTH SERVICES EDUCATION SERVICES
EFFECT OF 10% INCREASE IN SERVICES EXPENDITURE ON SOCIAL OUTCOMES, AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY, AND POVERTY
BASIC STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
2HOW TO MAXIMIZE SYNERGY BETWEEN SOCIAL SERVICES AND PRODUCTIVITY ENHANCING INVESTMENTS
MEETING THE DOUBLE CHALLENGEOF GROWTH ACCELERATION AND SOCIAL PROTECTION
3 HOW TO EXPLOIT GROWTH EXTERNALITIES OF SOCIAL SERVICES
4HOW TO IMPROVE CONSIDERATION OF GROWTH SYNERGIES IN BUDGET PLANNING AND NEGOTIATIONS
Page 34
CONCLUSIONS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
HAS REMARKABLE RECOVERY COMPENSATED FOR THE 2.5 DECADE ECON. STAGNATION? NO
o STILL LARGE POCKETS OF POVERTY
o PROGRESS TOWARDS POVERTY MDG PICKED UP PACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR MOST
o NEED TO ACCELERATE AND BROADEN GROWTH TO REDUCE POVERTY FASTER
1
Page 35
CONCLUSIONS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
GLOBAL CRISES ARE A THREAT BUT ALSO FULL OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICAN ECONOMIES
AFRICAN ECONOMIES HAVE SHOWN GREATER RESILIENCE THAN DURING PAST CRISES
AFRICAN AGRICULTURE IS WELL POSITIONED TO COMPETE AND BENEFIT FROM LONG TERM GLOBAL PRICE TRENDS
UNPRECEDENTED CONTINENT WIDE EFFORTS UNDER CAADP TO:o IMPROVE POLICY PLANNING / IMPLEMENTATION o RAISE GOVERNMENTS INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE.
2
Page 36
CONCLUSIONS
AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
THE RECOVERY OF LAST 15 YEARS HAS CREATED A STRONG FOUNDATION TO BUILD UPON
BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HIGHER RETURNS TO INVESTMENTS IN AND ASSISTANCE TO AFRICA
UNPRECEDENTED CONTINENT WIDE EFFORTS UNDER CAADP TO:
o IMPROVE POLICY PLANNING / IMPLEMENTATION
o RAISE GOVERNMENTS INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE
o AND SUSTAIN / DEEPENTHE RECOVERY PROCESS
3