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© Fraunhofer ISE
European Summer Campus „Energy on all scales“
FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE
Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
02.09.2013
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Economic loss through climate induced catastrophes
Grafik: IPCC SREX, Daten: Munich Re
Pressemeldung
im Handelsblatt
für 2011
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Potential emissions from fossil resources
Grafik: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy
Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
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The „Energiewende“ in Germany
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Fighting climate change in the electricity sector
Two options:
A) „Energiewende“: Renewable Energies
B) Nuclear Power Plants
But:
Environmental Risks, Costs and market perspective stand against a „nuclear renaissance“
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Global Power Plant Installations in the Future
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook 2013
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Principles of the EEG
Technology specific feed-in tariff (xx ct/kWh)
Feed-in tariff is adjusted according to cost decrease
Priority for RE production
Power is sold at the EEX
EEG-Umlage paid by ectricity consumers
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Development of wind energy in Germany and France
Source: Koordinierungsstelle Erneuerbare Energien, „Markt und Branchenentwicklung“
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Technological Progress triggert by incentive programs
Source: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
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Development of wind energy in Germany and France
Source: Koordinierungsstelle Erneuerbare Energien, „Markt und Branchenentwicklung“
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Average growth rates of RE technologies
Grafik: BMU nach ZSW mit Daten der Internationalen Energieagentur (IEA)
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Electricity production by source, first 7 months 2013
Installed solar and wind power
40
30
20
10
GW
solar power wind power
34.558 GW30.533 GW
year 2013
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Monthly Production from Solar and Wind in 2012
Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX
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Combined power from solar and wind+
Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX
25.000
25.000
30.000
30.000
20.000
20.000
15.000
15.000
5.000
5.0000
10.000
10.000
MW
MW
Wind
Sola
r
Anzeigejahr: 2012
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Actual Electricity Production in May 2012
Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dSTATIS
Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar
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Actual Electricity Production in CW 52, 2012
Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dSTATIS
Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar
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Actual Electricity Production in CW 21, 2012
Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dSTATIS
Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar
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Electricity production by source, first 7 months 2013
80
60
40
20
TWhyear 2013
Electricity production: first seven months 2013
Brown Coal Hard CoalUranium Gas Wind Solar Run of River
52.1 TWh
85.1 TWh
65.5 TWh
23.8 TWh 24.2 TWh19.4 TWh
10.5 TWh
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Prices drop of Solar Modules
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PV Feed-In Tariffs and Electricity Prices in Germany
Source: Harry Wirth, Fraunhofer ISE – „Aktuelle Fakten zur Photovoltaik in Deutschland“
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Future LCOE of Renewable Energies
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Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: BMWi Energiedaten (-2011); DESTATIS (2012);Entso-e (2013, skaliert)
Electricity Import and Export in 2012
Import Export
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Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: BMWi Energiedaten (-2011); DESTATIS (2012);Entso-e (2013, skaliert)
Electricity Import and Export in 2012
Electricity Export and Import
TWh
January February March April May June July August Sept. October Nov. Dec.
year 2013
5.0
6.0
7.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Legend: Import (DESTATIS) Import (Entso-e)Export (DESTATIS) Export (Entso-e)
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Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: DESTATIS (2012)
Electricity Import-Export-Balance since 1990
~ 30 GW wind & PV
~ 60 GW wind & PV
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Some basics about the german electricity market
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A few facts on the German electricity market
Annual cross power production: ~ 590 TWh
Total Generation Capacity: ~ 170 GW
Solar: ~ 33 GW
Wind: ~ 30 GW
Electricity market liberalization in 1998
Since 2002: European Energy Exchange (EEX)
Price and dispatch mechanism: Merit-Order Source: Peter Kaminski
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The Merit-Order M
argi
nal c
osts
of e
lect
ricity
pro
duct
ion
Available Net Plant Power, Increasing flexibility of power plants
Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Oil
Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE
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The Merit-Order M
argi
nal c
osts
of e
lect
ricity
pro
duct
ion
Available Net Plant Power, Increasing flexibility of power plants
Renewable Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Oil
Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE
Price drop
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Historical Day-Ahead Base- and Peak-Prices
Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1.HY2013
€/MWh
Day-Ahead Price, volume weighted & inflation-adjusted (2010 prices), Update: June 2013
Base hours (00:00 - 24:00)
Peak hours (08:00 - 20:00)
Base_h Peak_h
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History of Price Extremes in the Day-Ahead Market
Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
€/MWhWeekly Day-Ahead maximum and minimum prices, Update: July 2013
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Negative Electricity Prices in Germany
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Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: March 2013
€ / MWh Period Mean Period Min Period Max Std Deviation
Day-Ahead 38,97 - 50,00 120,20 17,13
Intraday 39,31 - 83,20 110,40 19,04
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Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW 12 2013
€ / MWh Period Mean Period Min Period Max Std Deviation
Day-Ahead 36,12 - 50,00 108,60 21,03
Intraday 36,67 - 83,20 110,40 25,20
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Analysis of the Negative Spot-Prices on 24.03.2013
Over 30 GW Solar and Wind
Nuclear and brown coal power plants not able to reduce power.
Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX
14:00-15:00 RoR Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar
Production GW 1,2 9,4 12,9 3,3 4,3 0,3 16,6 14,1
Plant Utiliz.* 32,4 % 78,0 % 71,5 % 16,2 % 22,0 % 2,8 % 54,9 % 42,4 %
*compared to total installed capacity
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Analysis of the Negative Spot-Prices on 24.03.2013
Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX
Actual production from wind and solar was higher than projected, the total load was lower than projected the day before. The result was an oversupply with electricity of up to 15 GW.
Su24.03.
Total projection error
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Development of low and negative price periods
Abbildung 1: Anzahl der Niedrigpreisstunden (<= 10 €/MWh und <= 0 €/MWh), 1. Halbjahr
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Plant System Utilization over Day-Ahead Prices
Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dStatis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100Day-Ahead Spot-Price in €/MWh
Utilization ratio depending on Day-Ahead Spot-Prices, 1. HY 2013
Uranium Brown Coal Gas Hard Coal
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Nuclear plant utilization including non-availabilities
Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dStatis
Planned
non-availability
Unplanned non-availability
Actual
production
Sum
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Flexibility of conventional power plants
Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas
Cold start - - - 0 ++
Warm Start - 0 + ++
Load change rate + 0 + ++
Minimum Load - - + +
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Change of electricity production by source
TWh
Brown Coal Hard CoalUranium Gas Wind Solar Run of River
Change in electricity production: first seven months 2013 versus first seven months 2012
2.0
4.0
6.0
-8,0
-2,0
-4,0
-6,0
+4.8 TWh+2.7 TWh
+0.13 TWh
-5.6 TWh
-3.3 TWh
+1.3 TWh+0.05 TWh
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Price curve of European Union Allowances (EUAs)
Source: www.boerse.de
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Conclusion
The EEG was very succesfull in kick-starting renewable energies
Costs for PV and wind systems reduced significantly
Negative Prices show upcoming system conflict
More flexibility in the power system is necessary
Development of a new electricity market design
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Thank-you for your attention!
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
