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DESERTEC: Solar Power from the Desert

Franz Trieb

DLR Stuttgart

September 2009

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Trans-Mediterranean High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid:Interstate Highways for Renewable Electricity in EUMENA

www.desertec.org

EUMENA:EuropeMiddle EastNorth Africa

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Studies:

Assessment of the renewable energy potential for the sustainable supply of electricity and water in 50 countries of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa taking into consideration the option of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP).

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSPMED-CSPMED-CSP AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP

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50 Countries in EUMENA analysed

ScandinaviaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeSouth-Eastern EuropeWestern AsiaNorth AfricaArabian Peninsula

Europe (EU)

Middle East & North Africa (MENA)

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Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply:

Inexpensive low electricity cost no long term subsidies

Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demand based on inexhaustible resources available or at least visible technologycapacities expandable in time

Compatible low pollution climate protection low risks for health and environment fair access

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Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity:

Coal, Lignite Oil, Gas Nuclear Fission, Fusion Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock) Biomass HydropowerWind Power PhotovoltaicWave / Tidal

ideally stored primary energy

fluctuating primary energy

storable primary energy

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Renewable Energy Technologies

Hydropower

Tides

Waves Wind PowerPhotovoltaic

Geothermal

Concentrating Solar Power Biomass

http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/inhalt/36983/35338/

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Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic Trough (PSA) Solar Tower (SNL)

Linear Fresnel (MAN/SPG) Dish-Stirling (SBP)

over 1000 °C

Gas Turbines, Engines

Up to 550 °C

Steam Turbines

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• spinning reserve

•

firm capacity, power on demand

•

combined generation of process heat for cooling,

industry, desalination, etc.

Fuel

Thermal Power Cycle (e.g. Steam

Turbine)

Process Heat

Electricity

Principle of a Conventional Thermal Power Plant

Concentrating Solar Collector Field (Mirrors)

Solar Heat

Thermal Energy Storage

•

concentrated, easily storable solar thermal

energy as fuel saver

Principle of a Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plant

Folie 10www.solarmillennium.de

ANDASOL 1, Guadix, Spain (50 MW, 7 h Storage, 2009)

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High Voltage Direct Current Transmission

Voltage: ± 800.000 VoltPower: 6400 MegawattLength: 2070 kmSource: Hydropower

http://www.abb.comhttp://www.siemens.com

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Biomass (0-1)

Wind Energy (5-50)

Geothermal (0-1)

Hydropower (0-50)

Solar (10-250)

Max

Min

Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y

Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa

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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050

Elec

trici

ty in

TW

h/y

SolarGeothermalHydroWindBiomassWave/TideDesalinationMENAEurope

Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA

> 630000

How Does a Sustainable Mix Look Like?

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Installed Capacity vs. Peak Load in EUMENA

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity [G

W]

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400 PhotovoltaicWind PowerGeothermalHydropowerBiomassTidal/WaveCSPOil & GasCoalNuclearFirm CapacityPeak Load

100 % availability plus 25 % reserve capacity

5000 h/a 2000 h/a

Import/ExportDesalination

www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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Firm Power Capacity based on Renewables and Fuel(no fossil or nuclear base load supply)

Hourly Model Germany 2050 (Brischke 2005)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

25.6. 26.6. 27.6. 28.6. 29.6. 30.6. 1.7.

Pow

er S

uppl

y[G

W]

Combined Heat & Power Domestic Renewables Solar ImportImport & Pump Storage Balancing Power (fossil) Surplus

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Availability and Redundancy

Power on Demand by a Mix of Fluctuating and Balancing Sources

Increased Number of Non-Correlated Energy Sources

Increased Number and Reduced Average Size of Power Plants

Increased Number of Supply Regions

Additional HVDC Grid Infrastructure for Long-Distance Transfer

Domestic Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix

Non-depletable Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix

Strategy is Based on Proven Technologies

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Carbon emissions of EUMENA power sector are reduced to 38 % until 2050 in spite of a quickly growing demand

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

CO

2-Em

issi

ons

in M

t/y

AvoidedImport SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerWave / TidalBiomassCSP PlantsOil / GasCoalNuclear

1% of Land Area Required

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Environmental Security

Reduced Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Power Generation

Reduced Risks of Nuclear Radiation and Proliferation

Reduced Local Pollution by Combustion Products

Optimal Land Use (1%) through Diversified Mix

Technology based on Recyclable Materials

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Equipment Cost Learning Curves

http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/weto_final_report.pdf

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Coal Price Nuclear Decommissioning Cost

National Audit Office UKNuclear Decommissioning Authority UK

11 GW Capacity61 £ Billion of 2007

= 6000 €/kW

http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/0708/the_nuclear_decommissioning_au.aspx

www.oilnergy.com

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Electricity Cost (Example Spain)

4.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Ele

ctric

ityC

ost[

c/kW

h]

TRANS-CSP Mix BaU Mix 2000

€2000 , Fuel Cost: IEA / WEO 2005, after 2020 CCS

Investment Phase Profit Phase

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Economic Security

Economic Risk Hedged by Increased Portfolio

Intrinsic Trend to Lower Cost and Lower Price Volatility

Energy Cost Stabilization through Investment in New Sources

Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Environmental Constraints

Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Scarcity

Reduction of Energy Subsidies in Europe and MENA

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Import Dependency of European Power Generation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Ener

gy Im

port

forP

ower

Gen

erat

ion

Import Dependencyin TRANS-CSPScenario

Current Trend ofImport Dependency

www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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Energy, Water,Food, Labor and Income

for further300 Million People in MENA ?

Solar Power & Desalination Plants

HVDC Line

Conventional AC Grid

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Political Security

Conflict Prevention between EU and MENA Reducing Pressure on Fuels

Conflict Prevention in MENA Solving Energy and Water Scarcity

Conflict Prevention in Europe Increasing Energy Diversity

Reduction of European Energy Import Dependency

Addition of Energy Corridors for European Supply

Initiating EU-MENA (Energy) Partnership

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Challenges

Requires New Structures and New Thinking (Change of Paradigm)

Requires Long-Term Financing Schemes due to Long-Term Investments

Based on International Cooperation and Interdependencies

Higher Complexity than Using Ideally Stored Fossil Energy Sources

More Stakeholders Involved due to Decentralized Generation

Cultural and Political Differences in EUMENA

Lobby Groups Acting Against Each Other

Speed of Environmental Change and Conflict Potentials

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Thank You!

www.dlr.de/desertec

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Some Background Information

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Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Lines x Capacity GW 4 x 2.5 16 x 2.5 28 x 2.5 40 x 2.5

Transfer TWh/y 60 230 470 700

Capacity Factor 0.60 0.67 0.75 0.80

Turnover Billion €/y 3.8 12.5 24 35

Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC

15 x 153100 x 0.1

30 x 303600 x 0.4

40 x 403600 x 0.7

50 x 503600 x 1.0

Cum. Investment CSPBillion € HVDC

425

13416

24531

35045

Elec. Cost CSP€/kWh HVDC

0.0500.014

0.0450.010

0.0400.010

0.0400.010

Total EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection 2020 – 2050 *

* All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP

www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000 2200 2400 2600 2800Direct Normal Irradiation [kWh/m²/y]

Ann

ual F

ull L

oad

Hou

rs [h

/y]

SM4SM3SM2SM1ANDASOL 1Nevada Solar 1

Effect of Thermal Energy Storage on the Availability of CSP

www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources

Solar Field1

Storage1

Power Block

Solar Field2

Solar Field3

Solar Field4

Storage2

Storage3

SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4

Electricity

Solar Field1

Storage1

Power Block

Solar Field2

Solar Field3

Solar Field4

Storage2

Storage3

SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4

Electricity

SM = Solar Multiple1 Solar Field = 6000 m²/MW1 Storage = 6 hours (full load)

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Electricity Supply in Europe (TRANS-CSP Scenario)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Ele

ctric

ity[T

Wh/

y]

Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear

www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Ele

ctric

ity[T

Wh/

y]

DesalinationExport SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / GasCoalNuclear

www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp

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AQUA-CSP Scenario for Middle East & North Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Wat

er C

onsu

mpt

ion

[Bm

³/y]

Natural Water Used Wastewater reused Fossil Fuel DesalinationGroundwater Over-Use CSP Desalination Efficiency Gains

www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp

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Solar Electricity Generating System - SEGS, California, USA (354 MW, online since 1985)

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Global Potential for Concentrating Solar Power

Global Technical Potential: 3,000,000 TWh/yGlobal Electricity Consumption: 18,000 TWh/y

www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources

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DNI Class Africa Australia

Central Asia, Caucase Canada China

Central South America India Japan

2000-2099 102,254 6,631 14,280 0 8,332 31,572 7,893 02100-2199 138,194 18,587 300 0 18,276 20,585 1,140 02200-2299 139,834 36,762 372 0 43,027 24,082 550 02300-2399 141,066 87,751 177 0 28,415 20,711 774 02400-2499 209,571 148,001 64 0 11,197 6,417 426 02500-2599 203,963 207,753 0 0 11,330 3,678 13 02600-2699 178,480 142,490 0 0 2,180 5,120 119 02700-2800+ 346,009 49,625 0 0 3,079 11,827 15 0Total 1,459,370 697,600 15,193 0 125,835 123,992 10,928 0

DNI Class Middle East Mexico

Other Developing Asia

Other East Europe Russia South Korea EU27+ USA

2000-2099 3,432 1,606 4,491 6 0 0 866 14,0962100-2199 12,443 3,378 5,174 13 0 0 497 17,1142200-2299 39,191 3,650 10,947 2 0 0 660 21,7482300-2399 60,188 5,807 30,776 0 0 0 162 16,4022400-2499 71,324 15,689 19,355 0 0 0 90 23,9032500-2599 34,954 7,134 4,429 0 0 0 69 8,1162600-2699 32,263 1,534 253 0 0 0 31 2,3262700-2800+ 36,843 1,878 136 0 0 0 34 0Total 290,639 40,675 75,561 21 0 0 2,409 103,704 CSP potentials in TWh/y available in the REACCESS world regions for different DNI Classes

www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources