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Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Rebin Said / Else Veldman – The Netherlands Session 5 – Paper 0412
Investment strategy for low voltage networks regarding new technologies
in new neighbourhoods
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Overview
Problem statement Investment analysis Conclusions
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Problem statement
Invest now or postpone investments?
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Problem statement
Invest now or postpone investments?
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Problem statement
Invest now or postpone investments?
Aspects Uncertainty energy transition
Optimal investment moment
Uncertain costs
Net losses
Net Present Value
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Investment analysis
Investment costs depends on: technologies introduced to the network investment options
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Future technologies
Multiple cases possible
Two extremes MAX load - MIN generation MIN load - MAX generation
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Investment options
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Investment options
Option 1Parallel Cable
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Option 1Parallel Cable
Option 2 Additional transformer
Investment options
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Investment analysis
Other issues, strategy 1 vs. strategy 2: Digging and installation costs will increase Higher net losses in strategy 2 Realization investments take time:
potential barrier for energy transition impact on customer comfort
Higher certainty when delaying investments
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Investment analysis
Stategy 1: Invest nowDigging & installation costs (%)
Invest
ment
cost
s (€
)
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Investment analysis Stategy 2: Postpone investments
10 years
Digging & installation costs (%)
Invest
ment
cost
s (€
)
5% 25%
• strategy 2 cheaper if digging costs increase <5%• 25% increase in digging costs expected
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Investment analysis Stategy 2: Postpone investments
20 years
Digging & installation costs (%)
Invest
ment
cost
s (€
)
50%
• strategy 2 cheaper if digging costs increase <50%• 50% increase in digging costs expected
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Investment analysis Stategy 2: Postpone investments
30 years
Digging & installation costs (%)
Invest
ment
cost
s (€
)
120%75%
• strategy 2 cheaper if digging costs increase <120%• 75% increase in digging costs expected
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Conclusions
Postpone investments (strategy 2) best if investments are needed after 20 or 30 years
Invest now (strategy 1) best if the investments would be needed within ten years
However: conservative case investigated: high penetration of
technologies and large loads low probability this will be realized within 10 years
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Conclusions
Therefore, following strategy 2 by postponing the investments to a later moment would yield a more optimal investment
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Questions & Answers
Rebin Said / Else Veldman – The Netherlands Session 5 – Paper 0412
