Frank RaesJoint Research Centre

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Climate –KIC Innovation Festival, Bologna2 October, 2012

The EU Low Carbon Roadmap to 2050

Meinshausen Nature 2009

emissions without (rood) and with (blauw) policies

Meinshausen 2009

by 2050, we needto be able to reduce CO2 emissions by

80 Gt CO2 /yr

greenhouse gas emissions without and with policies

Decarbonising the globalpower sector by 2050would yield a reduction of

60 Gt CO2 /yr

requires building a zero-carbon power capacityof 13 000 GW

Montalto di Castro (Italy) power stations

instead building 6500 of these2000 MWe nuclear PP

not building 4360 of these3600 MWe oil&gas PP

Decarbonizing the global power sector by 2050 means

OR building 300000 of these44 MWe/0,8 km2 PV parks

Decarbonizing the global power requires 240 000 km2 of PV

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Why does EU insist on a decarbonization policy?

In 2010 EU CO2 emissions are only10% of global emissions

Decarbonization takes place “automatically”

JRC EDGAR emission inventory

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Why does EU insist on a decarbonization policy?

- gives a purpose to the EU- jobs, competitiveness- be a credible partner in the international climate negotiations

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Based on model and scenario analyses for the World and EU (e.g. POLES, PRIMES,..)

HOW?

The EU Low Carbon Roadmap to 20502012 Communication from the Commission to the EP and the Council

A Roadmap for moving towards a competitive low carbon economy in 2050

EU GHG emissions towards an 80% domestic reduction (100%=1990)

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The EU Low Carbon Road Map

ENERGY SECTOR

- Shift to electricity as energy carrier in transoprt (electric vehicles,...) and households (heat pumps, ...

- Absorb extra demand for electricity by energy efficiency

- Low carbon electricity production (RES, CCS, nuclear): nearly 100% carbon-free by 2050

- Networks and an EU energy market - demand driven management, smart grids- Public & Private Investment in:

R&D, demonstration projects, early deployment

number power plants to be built in the EU per decade to achieve an 80% CO2 emission reduction by 2050

35,000

7,000

28,000

35,000

7,000

28,000

38,000

10,000

28,000

46,000

11,000

35,000

40,000

25,000

Wind offshoreWind onshore

0

2040-2050

15,000

2030-2040

15,000

2020-2030

11,000

2010-2020

5,500

2000-2010

1,000

1990-2000

Wind turbines1

Solar2

Actual 80% RES pathway

Total by 2050 :1500 GW

2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050: 80% RES scenario

2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050

exchange / trade of energy accross Europe needed

2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050

the EU energy network

2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050

the map of ENEROPA

THANK YOU

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The EU Low Carbon Road Map

NEED FOR SUSTAINED INVESTMENT

- Additional 270 bE/yr over the next 40 years =

- 1,5 % of GDP each year on top of e.g. 19% of GDP in 2009 (China 48%, India 35%, S-Korea 26% in 2009)

- 1,5% is about what was lost due to the crisis:hence: recovery through investments in low carbon technologies (see stimulus packages)

- EU energy bill is 175-350 bE/yr

- ETS- Public-private partnerships to overcome risks

Coal2

40353120

239

107-83%

Actual 80% RES pathway

1020105317

94

2040-20502030-20402020-20302010-20202000-20101990-20001980-1990

-79%

89812

21

35

-66%

Gas1

Nuclear3

Total by 2050: 150 GW

2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 :80% RES scenario

number power plants to be built per decade contributing to a 80% CO2 emission reduction by 2050

consumption production

policies

Policies

ICT

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The EU Low Carbon Road Map

TRANSORT SECTOR

- Up till 2025 Fuel efficiency: more km per unit of energy (hybrid, transport )

- Later more : new fuels and prulsion systems EV (batteries, fuel cells, biofuels)

- Transport networks

- CO2 Standards and taxation- Consider co-benifts (air pollution, congestion, oil-

independence,...)- R&D, demonstraion projects and early

deployement

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The EU Low Carbon Road Map

BUILDING SECTOR

- 2011 Directive on energy perfomance of new builings: must all be zero-energy from 2021 onwards (financed through fuel saving)

- Refurbishing old buildings (200bE public &private investment over next 10 years

- Use of electricity for heating (Heat pumps, ...) and to renewables (solar heating, biomass,...)

- Green public procurement

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The EU Low Carbon Road Map

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

- resource efficient production processes- Recycling- Emission reductions of non-CO2 GHG’s- Sector specific sollutions- after 2035 CCS in industrial plants

(cement and steel)- Avoid carbon leakage (Internalional policy

needed!)

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The EU Low Carbon Road Map

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

- efficient production of food and feed- Efficient fertilizer use (NO3- > NH3> N2O,

NOx, ...)- Maintain soil carbon stocks (forests,

grasslands, low tilage, ...)- Avoid carbon leakage- Adress compotetion for land for food and

biofuels

consuming differently

ECO-oneUniversity of Warwick

220 km/h100 km/h in 4 sec

95% biologisch afbreekbaar &

recycleerbaar

producing differently

Meinshausen Nature 2009

emissions without (rood) and with (blauw) policies

How do we produce13000 GW by carbon-free sources:by 2050

- Have 13 000 1GW Nuclear power plants installed by 2050 Bring 1 on line every two days between 2000 and 2050.

or

-Have 650 000 20 MW PV parks installed by 2050 Bring 35 on line every day between 2000 and 2050

or

-Have 1 850 000 7 MW Wind turbines installed by 2050 Bring 100 on line every day between 2000 and 2050

Montalto di Castro (Italy) 44 MW photovoltaic park 0.8 km2

Area of Italt = 301.000 km2

Meinshausen 2009

by 2050, we needto be able to reduce GhG emissions by

80 Gt CO2 /yr

greenhouse gas emissions without and with policies

XX Gt CO2 /yr in the power sector

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Arctic sea ice area at summer minimum: trend

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Positive feed back at work?Heading to a tipping point ?

Meinshausen 2009

by 2030, we needto be able to reduce GhG emissions by

45 Gt CO2 eq /yr

greenhouse gas emissions without and with policies

total: 20 Gt CO2 eq

potential to reduce GhG emissions in various sectors by 2030through technolgy only

another 25 Gt CO2 eq needed ...

What does reducing CO2 emissions by 80 Gt/yr by 2050 mean?e.g.Can we reach that by decarbonizing the whole power sector?

Back of the envelop calculation, based on 2011 WEO data

Assume following BAU baseline: in 2050 - global power sector mix equals US power sector mix of yr 2000- 50% of transport, industrial and household energy delivered trough electricity- then 66% of global emissions or will be through power production Decarbonization the power sector would give a reduction of 60 GtCO2 in 2050

Decarbonising the power sector by 2050 needed but not sufficient!

Anyway:

What does it mean to decarbonize the whole power sector by 2050?

With 0.5 kg CO2 per kWh (emisison factor US power sector in 2000)

It means to produce 13000 GW with zero carbon sources by 2050

2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050

2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050

demand driven management