Frank Clemente Presentation

8/11/2019 Frank Clemente Presentation

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C

90

120

150TWh of Electricity Generation

Coal

1

0

30

60

Massachusetts Connecticut New Jersey New York Texas

AllSources

AllSources

AllSourcesAll

Sources

Source: EIA; The Washington Post, March 7, 2014



2

. .

2014





20C

44



What America Looked Like Before Electricity

5



C C : , B ,

: , 2010 6



Global Electricity Depends onFossil Fuels, Especially Coal,

30000

40000

TWh

7

0

10000

20000

1970 1990 2011 2035

Coa l

Oil

Gas

Sources: IEA, WEO, 2002, 2013





The World We Don’t Want

IEA Projects Electricity Poverty Will Prevail for Decades

Country/Region No Access toElectricity

in 2030(millions)

No Access toClean Cooking

Facilities in 2030(millions)

9

India 147 730

China ---- 241

Other Developing

Asia

177 611

Rest of World ---- 63

Total 969 2,524

Source: IEA, WEO 2013





11



12Source: UN



15

1313



, , A : 2035

• 42%

• 23%

1414

• 56%

• 60%

• C 59%

61% 14



Fossil Fuels and Urbanization Lead thePathway Out of Poverty



Unprecedented urbanization drives demand for fossilfuel—especially power and steel from coal



2500

3000

3500

3000

4000

C

UrbanMillions

kWh perCapita

0

500

1000

15002000

0

1000

2000

190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002012

17Sources: United Nations, World Bank

Urban



Out of Poverty: China Used Coal-Based

Electricity to Lift Hundreds of Millions

“Coal hasunderpinned …

an economic

18

miracle”InternationalEnergy Agency

Sources: IEA, WEO 2013; Business Insider, November 21, 2013

1990Now



India is Using Coal to Cut Electricity Depri

580

487 715 700

800

500

600

E l e c t r i c i t y

T er aw a t t H o u

From 2002-2011, a 70% increase in coal power reduced India’s electricity deprivation by 47%

306

424

537

400

500

600

200

300

400

2002 2007 2011*

Without Electricity Coal-Based Electricity

M i l l i o n s w

i t h N o

r s of

C o al P ow er

Source: IEA, WEO, 2002, 2007, 2013

* 2011 is the atest IEA data available



The Rise of Coal Power in ASEAN

600

800

1000

h ) o f G e n e r a t i o n

TWh Through 2035

Coal

Gas

800

0

200

400

1990 2011 2020 2035

T e r a w a t t H o u r s (

T

Other

Hydro

Source: IEA, Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, pg. 37, 2013

2050



Coal is the backbone of electricity in Southern Africa

Source: World Bank, 2012





25

30 AEMC Projections for 2013/14

2011/12 prices @ exchange rates

0

5

10

15

20

Australia Japan EuropeanUnion

U.S. Canada

23

: C , 2012.



Decline in Ontario’s Coal Generation MeantRise in Electric Rates

37 TWh$181

$160

$200

24

32

40

n e r a t i o n ( T

W h ) R

e si d en

t i al E l e

"Someday, peoplewill realize the load ofbull they’ve been

sold by their

0 TWh

$97

$80

$120

0

8

16

2002 2004 2008 2012 2015 C o a l - B a s e d

P o w e r

G

t r i cB i l l a t 1 , 0

0 0 k Wh

* Monthly bill. Adapted from Dewees, 2012; Toronto Star, June 26, 2013

energy," Lorrie

Goldstein, columnist ,Toronto Sun, June,

2013



. . :

45

50 Americans in Poverty(millions)

2008

30

35

40

25Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty 2000-2012; Huffington Post, September 19, 2013

8

20%



Higher Electricity Rates

Lead to More Poverty

42

46

50

9

9.5

10

10.5

k W h

ElectricityPrice

M

30

34

38

6.5

7

7.5

88.5

C e n

t s P e

Americans inPoverty

l l i on

s

26Sources: EIA, State Electricity Profiles, Electric Power Monthly, February 2013; U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty 2000-2012



A ?

22

# of times mentioned in the text inEPA’s 128-page proposed carbon rule

27

76

5

California Oregon Washington New York average U.S.State

<1

Source: EPA, Federal Register, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: ElectricUtility Generating Units; Proposed Rule, June 18, 2014: Note: Contiguous U.S.



A . .

339# of times mentioned in

EPA’s 128-page proposedcarbon rules For impact on

minorities, elderly, andlow income, EPA only

considers Climate

28

5 1 0 0

efficiency ordemand side

poor economicgrowth

poverty lower rates orprices

Source: EPA, Federal Register, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: ElectricUtility Generating Units; Proposed Rule, June 18, 2014

Change, not the impact

of higher electricityprices.



Why Do Californians UsLess Electricity?

82%18%

EfficiencyPrograms

77%EfficiencyPrograms

23%

6%

EfficiencyPrograms

77%94%“It turns out, however, that most

of those apparent savings [forUnique Factors:

higher home electricityprices, climate, industrial

shift, householdsize & mix

Unique Factors:household characteristics,

climate,fuel choice,

appliance patterns

Sources: Mitchell, et al., “Stabilizing California’s Demand,” March 2009, Energy Economics; Arik Levinson, Jan. 29, 2013,“California Energy Efficiency: Lessons for the Rest of the World, or Not?,” Georgetown University

Unique Factors:household characteristics,

population trends,climate

a orn a can e exp a ne y

long run trends unrelated toenergy efficiency,” Arik Levinson,

Professor of EconomicsGeorgetown University



30% Fewer Cooling Degree Days than Average

2,2212,434 2,686 2,714

2000

2500

3000

Cooling Degree Days

3030

994 1,0291,172

0

500

1000

1500

CA WV IL OK LA TX AZ

Source: NCDC

Note: U.S = 1,356 cooling degree days



C A C

12

13

14

15

r k W h

California• Already has the highest

electric rates west of theMississippi*

• Electric rates areprojected to rise 47%

California

6

7

8

9

10

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

C e n t s

P

U.S.

Sources: EIA, State Electricity Profiles, Electric Power Monthly, February 2014;UT San Diego, July 28, 2012; LA Times, April 26, 2014 *Contiguous U.S.

• Has 12% of the U.S.population but 34% ofAmericans on welfare.

• More children in povertythan Nebraska haspeople.

31



Clean Coal Works

% %

32

Sources: EIA, Electricity, Generation & Thermal Output, Electricity Net Generation, Electric Power Sector, 1949-

2011; USDA (Shane), GDP per Capita Historical; NETL, June 2012, Fossil Energy Research Benefits, Clean CoalTechnology Demonstration Program



C : . . C A

J-POWER’s

Unit No. 2600 C

Gross thermal

33

, ,, ,

: 45%



:

87

C 2

34

:14 C2

7 C

Source: National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, “Storing CO 2 and Producing Domestic Crude Oil

with Next Generation CO 2-EOR Technology,” Jan. 9, 2009; International Energy Agency: “Coal-Fired Power Generation:Replacement/Retrofitting Older Plants,” 2008; Management Information Services and Peabody analysis. : / 2012/1540 1.5.



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Frank Clemente Presentation