FAO-MOSAICC: Methodology and software overview

Francois DelobelAfricaAdapt Symposium 10 March 2011

UNCC Addis Ababa

Outline

1. Objectives2. Models and methodology3. Software architecture4. Flowchart5. Interfaces6. Deployment

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

1. Objectives

• MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

• Integrated impact assessment on crop yields, from climate data handling to economic assessment

• Provides information to support decision-making at national level

• Delivered to national institutions with training

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

1. Objectives

• Expected outcomes (finalization phase): – General methodology– Software package– Comprehensive documentation– Sample data and tutorials for training

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

1. Objectives

• Main characteristics of the system– A package of impact models running on one server,

connected to a common database and controlled through a unique set of interfaces

– This system is open: data can be exchanged to run other models as long as the users respect a set of minimum rules – technically (format, geographical coordinate system) and scientifically (congruency)

– This system is portable and managed by the host institutions

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

2. Models and methodology

• Criteria for model selection:– Simplicity and transparency– Robustness: limited sensitivity to low quality data– Flexibility: spatial and temporal resolution, domain of

applicability– Tested under various agro-climatic conditions– Free if not open source– Cross-platform (Windows, Linux)

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

2. Models and methodology

• 4 Main parts– Climate– Hydrology– Crops– Economy

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

2.1 Climate

• Aim: Preparation of climate projections for crop and hydrological modelling from observations and GCM outputs

• Models:– Statistical downscaling tool based on DAD Portal, developed by the

Santander Meteorology Group, University of Cantabria (Spain)– Interpolation module based on AURELHY (an interpolation method

using the topography) developed by P. Grosjean, University of Mons (Belgium)

– Potential evapotranspiration calculation routine– Planting date and growing season length calculator (PLD) developed

by R. Gommes, JRC-IES (Italy)

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

2.2 Hydrology

• Aim: Simulating the water flow accumulation in river catchments for water resources estimation

• Model: – STREAM (precipitation – runoff model), developed by

Water Insight, the Netherlands• Inputs: climate data, soil characteristics, land cover,

discharge observations• Outputs: discharges, water accumulation in dams

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

2.3 Crops

• Aim: Generating crop yield projections under climate change scenarios using a crop forecasting approach

• 2 Models: – AgroMetShell: crop specific soil water balance (FAO-NRC) – AQUACROP: water driven crop model (FAO-NRL)

• Inputs: climate data, soil characteristics, crop parameters, management options

• Outputs: according to the model, yield estimations, biomass production, crop water balance variables etc.

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

2.4 Economy

• Aim: Modelling the impacts of changing yields on national economies and simulating the effect of policy responses

• Model:– Generic Computable General Equilibrium Model

developed by the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Free University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

• Endogenous variables: crop yield projections + additional scenarios (population, agricultural land)

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

3. Software architecture

• All modelling carried out on a central server• All models are connected to a central

database with which they exchange data• Users send jobs through web interfaces

• Use of free software• Web interfaces solve cross platform issues

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

4. Flowchart

Climate ScenarioDownscalingHistorical

weatherrecords

Downscaled Climate scenarios

Hydrological Modelling

Crop growth Simulation

Economic Modelling

IPCC GCMLow Resolution

Scenarios

Historical dischargerecords

Water availabilityfor irrigation

Historical water usestatistics

Historical yield

records

Yield projections

Current stateof economy

Macroeconomicscenarios

Economic impacts

Crop parameters

Soil data

Technology trend scenarios

Soil and Land use

data

Dam data

ModellersInterface

External users interface

Server & Database

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

5. Interfaces

6. Deployment

• Requirements: – host institution (e.g. national met office)– experts from relevant institutions:

agrometeorologists, hydrologists, economists– minimum data (weather stations)

• Constitution of a multidisciplinary team, including end-users

• System installation• Training sessions for each model

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

6. Deployment

• Integrated impact assessment study at national level

• Ensuring the sustainability of the system, extension to other applications (e.g. crop forecasting, environment monitoring), educational tool...

• Use case in Morocco this year, before implementations in other countries

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa

Thank you for your attention

• Websites:– www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc/en/ – www.fao.org/nr/climpag/

• Partners:

Mauro Evangelisti Servizi Informatici

Numerical Ecology of Aquatic Systems

AgroMetShell

AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa