Text of France Economic Outlook by Alain Henriot Delegate Director, Coe-Rexecode Kiel - 16th March 2010
France Economic Outlook by Alain Henriot Delegate Director, Coe-Rexecode Kiel - 16th March 2010 Slide 2 - 2 1 - A better resilience of the French economy to the crisis than other Euro area countries Slide 3 - 3 What is behind this resilience ? Lower exposure to industry Sectoral specialisation led to a less pronounced downturn in industrial production in France than in other Euro area countries The share of the public sector in the economy has contributed to soften the decline of activity Slide 4 - 4 Different phases in the recovery process : Phase 1: a global crash (mid-2008 early 2009) Phase 2: a strong upturn in the car industry (thanks to public support schemes in many European countries) triggering the supplying industries (2 nd and 3 rd quarters 2009) ; In the meantime the activity in other sectors (equipment goods) is stabilising at a very low level (-25 % compared to the pre-crisis level) Phase 3: Beginning of a downturn in the car industry production coupled with a moderate increase in activity on other industries (2009Q4 -2010 Q 1) Forthcoming: strengthening global output or aborted recovery? Slide 5 - 5 2 What can we learn from business surveys? Slide 6 - 6 What can we learn from surveys? (2) Slide 7 - 7 What can we learn from surveys? (3) Slide 8 - 8 To sum up, Coe-Rexecode indicator assesses underlying growth at around 1.2% in February against 2.3% three months ago: is it the sign of a slowdown of economic growth? Slide 9 - 9 1. Inventories: in the industry, the level of inventories is now considered as very low, it can help to support future stock building 3 Which engines for economic growth? Slide 10 - 10 Which engines for economic growth? (2) 2. Private consumption: in 2009, households real disposable income was supported by disinflation. It will not be the case anymore in 2010. Since the beginning of 2010, the planning end of the wreckage premium has been weighing on car sales. Slide 11 - 11 Which engines for economic growth? (3) 3. Investment: the low level of capacity utilisation will hamper the recovery in investment INSEE survey Slide 12 - 12 Which engines for economic growth? (4) 4. Exports: a relief thanks to the depreciation of the Euro in a context of a rather strong world demand Export performance: export volumes/world demand addressed to France Price competitiveness: national export prices/export prices of competitors Slide 13 - 13 Which engines for economic growth? (5) 5. Public investment: it was rather weak in 2009, despite growth support schemes. It was the result of the cities electoral cycle. Slide 14 - 14 4 What prospect for the labour market? Slide 15 - 15 In France, productivity per employee has already returned to the pre-crisis level Slide 16 - 16 Temporary jobs have been back on a rising trend, but it is probably the result of higher demand in the car industry Slide 17 - 17 Forecast 2010 -2011 Annual change (%) unless otherwise stated 200920102011 GDP -126.96.36.199 Private consumption 0.80.90.8 Total investment -7.0-1.12.4 Of which: business investment -7.7-0.82.5 Residential construction -8.1-3.51.7 Inventories change (contribution to GDP, %) -1.40.80 Exports -188.8.131.52 Imports -184.108.40.206 Inflation (annual average, %) 0.11.21.0 Current account balance (% GDP) -2.0-2.1-2.2 Public deficit (% GDP) -7.9-7.8-6.9 Unemployment rate (average level, %) 9.19.910.0 Slide 18 - 18 In conclusion : has the crisis hit the long-term outlook? Slide 19 - 19 probably yes !