Framing Effects

From Chapter 34 ‘Frame and Reality’ of Thinking Fast and Slow, by D.

Kahneman

Question 1• Imagine Ireland is preparing for the outbreak of a disease, which is expected to kill

600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:– If program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.– If program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be

saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.

• Which program do you think Ireland should adopt A or B?

Question 2• Imagine Ireland is preparing for the outbreak of a disease, which is expected to kill

600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:– If program A’ is adopted, 400 people will die.– If program B’ is adopted, there is a one-third probability that no one will die

and a two third probability that 600 people will die.

• Which program do you think Ireland should adopt A or B?

General Results

• Question 1: typically a substantial majority of respondents choose program A, they prefer the certain option over the gamble.

• Question 2: typically a majority of people choose the gamble.

• When you compare the two questions , however, the consequences of the programs A and A’ are identical and B and B’ are identical.