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1
FRAGMENTATION
COHESION
& UNCERTAINTY
SIMON ATKINSON
CHIEF KNOWLEDGE OFFICER, IPSOS
@SIMONMATKINSON
3
POPULATION
CHANGE
UNEVEN
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
GLOBALISATION
AND MIGRATION
CLIMATE
CHANGE AND
SUSTAINABILITY
TECHNOLOGICAL
CHANGE
POLITICAL
CHANGE AND
MULTI POLARITY
6
CRISIS OF
THE ELITES
OPTIMISM
DIVIDE
GENERATION
STRAINSRISE AND RISE
OF TRADITION
BATTLE FOR
ATTENTIONSIMPLICITY
AND CONTROL
UNCERTAINTY IS
THE NEW NORMAL
OUR EIGHT TRENDS FOR 2017
HEALTHIER
WORLD
Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 8
9
CRISIS OF THE ELITES?
My government does not prioritise the interests of people like me 71%
Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 76%
Feel like a stranger in my country 46%
Don’t identify with what my country has become 59%
Experts don’t understand my life 69%
Wish we had a strong leader not current elected government 58%
10
CRISIS OF THE ELITES?
My government does not prioritise the interests of people like me 71%
Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 76%
Feel like a stranger in my country 46%
Don’t identify with what my country has become 59%
Experts don’t understand my life 69%
Wish we had a strong leader not current elected government 58%
11
CRISIS OF THE ELITES?
My government does not prioritise the interests of people like me 69%
Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 78%
Feel like a stranger in my country 61%
Don’t identify with what my country has become 62%
Experts don’t understand my life 62%
Wish we had a strong leader not current elected government 44%
12
CRISIS OF THE ELITES? – TRUST IN ...
International institutions 38%
Banks 36%
Justice system 36%
Big companies 32%
The government 24%
Political parties 16%
The media 7%
Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 13
#2 UNCERTAINTY IS
THE NEW NORMAL
15
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Agree 2014 Disagree 2014
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
We live in an
increasingly
dangerous world
Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
DANGER
EVERYWHERE
82%
95%
90%
89%
88%
87%
87%
86%
86%
84%
84%
84%
83%
82%
82%
80%
80%
79%
78%
78%
77%
72%
67%
60%
15%
5%
10%
10%
10%
10%
12%
14%
11%
14%
12%
14%
13%
13%
16%
16%
16%
18%
20%
21%
21%
25%
22%
33%
Total
Mexico
S Africa
Peru
Argentina
Brazil
Turkey
Poland
U.S.
Australia
France
Italy
S Korea
Belgium
Russia
Spain
GB
Germany
Canada
Sweden
Indonesia
India
Japan
China
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
16
53%
49%
46%
“I fear that
technical
progress
is destroying
our lives”% AGREE
MORE WORRIES…
Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers
17
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Agree 2014 Disagree 2014
50%
74%
71%
71%
66%
60%
60%
55%
55%
54%
52%
50%
49%
48%
47%
45%
43%
42%
39%
36%
35%
34%
33%
33%
38%
21%
24%
23%
28%
31%
26%
41%
28%
35%
37%
34%
44%
31%
40%
34%
39%
43%
50%
48%
54%
49%
53%
55%
Total
Indonesia
India
Turkey
Peru
Brazil
China
Mexico
Russia
Argentina
S Africa
Italy
S Korea
Poland
U.S.
Japan
Australia
Canada
Spain
GB
Germany
France
Belgium
Sweden
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Eventually all medical
conditions and
diseases will be
curable
Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
NOT ALL DOOM
AND GLOOM
Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 18
BATTLE
#3 THE
FOR
ATTENTION
Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 19
Direct
marketing
TV/
Cinema
RadioPress
Posters /
Billboards
1980s
Digital/
terrestrial
TV
Mobile
phone
ads
Mobile
phone aps
Social
networking
profiles
In game
advertising
PR
Online
video
Homepage
takeovers
Search
ads
Direct
marketing
Micro
blogging
Satellite
TV
Online
radio
Digital
radio
Press
Direct
marketing
marketing
Sponsorship
Analogue
radio
Augmented
reality
Viral
video
Direct
mail Digital
Billboards
Posters Online
banners
Cinema
Direct
marketing
Microsites
Now
20
BATTLE FOR ATTENTION
66%in Turkey say
they are
‘constantly
looking at
screens
these days’
“The level of interrupt, the
sort of overwhelming rapidity
of information… is in fact
affecting cognition” Eric Schmidt
22
% USING
AD BLOCKERS
YES NO DON’T KNOW
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
57%
76%
67%
66%
66%
65%
64%
63%
62%
62%
61%
60%
60%
57%
56%
56%
53%
52%
50%
48%
47%
45%
40%
37%
36%
19%
26%
28%
31%
30%
30%
32%
31%
34%
32%
33%
35%
34%
35%
35%
41%
40%
41%
44%
44%
46%
52%
57%
7%
5%
7%
6%
3%
5%
6%
5%
7%
4%
7%
7%
5%
9%
9%
9%
6%
8%
9%
8%
9%
9%
8%
6%
Total
India
Indonesia
France
S Africa
China
Brazil
Argentina
Germany
Poland
U.S.
Peru
Russia
Turkey
Mexico
Canada
Italy
Spain
Belgium
Sweden
GB
Australia
S Korea
Japan
Base: 10,412 adults across 23 countries online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 23
FOR SIMPLICITY
#4 THE SEARCH
AND CONTROL
25
“… choice, complexity and let’s
CASS SUNSTEIN
call it limited attention span …
can lead to behavioural
market failures”
27
THE PAST IS
I would like my
country to be the
way it used to be
ALWAYS
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Agree 2014 Disagree 2014
50%
69%
69%
66%
64%
62%
59%
58%
58%
57%
51%
49%
48%
48%
46%
46%
44%
43%
43%
41%
38%
37%
32%
30%
41%
28%
23%
24%
27%
33%
32%
29%
35%
38%
36%
39%
42%
41%
45%
49%
54%
41%
51%
48%
49%
54%
64%
60%
Total
India
U.S.
France
Belgium
Mexico
Italy
Australia
Turkey
Brazil
Canada
GB
Argentina
Russia
Germany
S Africa
Indonesia
Japan
Sweden
Spain
Poland
S Korea
Peru
China
Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
ATTRACTIVE
28
%agree that “traditions
%are an important
part of society”
agree that “It is up to
everybody to work out
their own set of principles
to guide their decisions”
29
MOST DON’T
The role of women in
society is to be good
mothers and wives
WANT
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Agree 2014 Disagree 2014Base: 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
TRADITIONAL
37%
76%
69%
64%
47%
43%
42%
41%
41%
39%
37%
36%
36%
35%
30%
27%
25%
24%
24%
23%
22%
19%
17%
58%
22%
23%
33%
50%
52%
54%
53%
52%
59%
60%
60%
61%
44%
64%
69%
70%
70%
71%
73%
72%
77%
78%
Total
Indonesia
Russia
India
Turkey
Brazil
Poland
Germany
U.S.
S Africa
Mexico
S Korea
Peru
Japan
Australia
Argentina
Canada
France
Italy
Belgium
GB
Spain
Sweden
ROLES FOR
WOMEN
30 © 2016 Ipsos.
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Agree 2014 Disagree 2014
57%
79%
72%
70%
69%
63%
62%
62%
62%
60%
59%
57%
57%
57%
55%
55%
52%
52%
47%
47%
43%
41%
34%
25%
16%
24%
19%
21%
27%
19%
20%
18%
17%
19%
18%
25%
19%
30%
21%
21%
34%
30%
30%
25%
49%
41%
Total
India
Turkey
S Africa
Brazil
Peru
Australia
Italy
Spain
GB
France
Canada
Sweden
U.S.
Mexico
Poland
Belgium
S Korea
Argentina
Germany
Japan
Indonesia
Russia
Things would work better if more women held positions with responsibilities in government and companies
Base: 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
THINGS WOULD
WORK BETTER IF…
32
78%
66%
65%
63%
56%
49%
48%
45%
42%
40%
39%
37%
34%
32%
29%
28%
27%
26%
24%
22%
21%
15%
10%
China
Peru
India
Indonesia
Brazil
S Africa
Mexico
Russia
Poland
Argentina
U.S.
Turkey
Italy
Germany
Canada
Japan
Sweden
Australia
S Korea
GB
Spain
Belgium
France
DISRUPTION
To what extent, if at all, do
you feel that today’s
youth will have had a
better or worse life than
their parents, or will it be
about the same?” % BETTER
TOMORROW
Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 33
WORLD
#7 A HEALTHIER
34
PEOPLE SAY EATING
Of all the things I can do
to maintain good
health, eating right is
the most important
THE RIGHT THING
MATTERS
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
80%
95%
90%
88%
87%
87%
86%
85%
85%
84%
84%
82%
82%
82%
79%
78%
78%
77%
74%
72%
71%
68%
67%
63%
16%
4%
8%
10%
7%
11%
10%
11%
14%
14%
14%
12%
14%
15%
19%
18%
16%
18%
23%
23%
20%
19%
25%
30%
Total
Indonesia
India
S Korea
China
Spain
Argentina
Brazil
S Africa
Turkey
Peru
Australia
Canada
U.S.
Mexico
Germany
Italy
GB
Sweden
France
Russia
Japan
Belgium
Poland
Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
35
BUT MOST
How satisfied or
dissatisfied are you
with your weight?
WORRIED ABOUT
WEIGHT
KEY:
Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
KEY:
Satisfied 2016 Dissatisfied 2016
Satisfied 2014 Dissatisfied 2014
44%
75%
65%
52%
51%
51%
51%
49%
48%
45%
45%
45%
43%
43%
43%
42%
42%
41%
41%
39%
37%
28%
26%
19%
33%
10%
20%
27%
32%
36%
35%
18%
31%
38%
30%
33%
40%
36%
38%
34%
32%
33%
31%
33%
32%
46%
36%
51%
Total
Indonesia
India
Sweden
Poland
S Africa
U.S.
China
Russia
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Turkey
GB
Argentina
Italy
Belgium
Spain
France
Mexico
Japan
Peru
S Korea
37
WILL
Over the coming years,
do you expect the quality
of healthcare that you
and your family will have
access to locally will
improve, stay the same
or get worse?
HEALTHCARE
KEY:
Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
KEY:
Improve 2016 Get Worse 2016
Improve 2014 Get Worse 2014
29%
71%
60%
51%
47%
42%
40%
39%
39%
27%
26%
24%
23%
23%
22%
21%
20%
20%
18%
14%
12%
10%
10%
8%
23%
9%
6%
4%
8%
22%
13%
13%
25%
11%
18%
20%
28%
13%
32%
38%
29%
29%
32%
24%
38%
41%
38%
47%
Total
Brazil
India
Indonesia
China
Turkey
Peru
Argentina
S Africa
S Korea
Russia
U.S.
Belgium
Japan
Mexico
France
Australia
Sweden
Canada
Poland
Germany
Italy
Spain
GB
IMPROVE?
Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 38
DIVIDE
#8 THE OPTIMISM
39
GLOBALISATION
Globalisation is good
for my country
DIVIDES55%
82%
79%
77%
72%
72%
70%
65%
57%
56%
56%
54%
53%
52%
49%
49%
45%
45%
45%
41%
41%
36%
31%
30%
32%
14%
13%
19%
24%
17%
24%
26%
32%
34%
27%
27%
37%
29%
31%
31%
45%
41%
37%
36%
41%
51%
53%
57%
Total
India
China
Peru
Indonesia
S Africa
Brazil
Argentina
Sweden
S Korea
GB
Canada
Turkey
Australia
Japan
U.S.
Germany
Mexico
Poland
Russia
Spain
Italy
France
BelgiumKEY:
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Agree 2014 Disagree 2014Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
40
STRIVING VERSUS
I want to achieve
success personally and
professionally even if I
have to change totally
the way I live
COMPLACENT?55%
77%
77%
72%
72%
70%
68%
67%
65%
62%
59%
53%
51%
47%
47%
44%
44%
44%
44%
42%
41%
41%
36%
33%
39%
21%
22%
27%
25%
23%
31%
31%
27%
36%
36%
42%
43%
45%
44%
47%
50%
46%
50%
50%
52%
43%
57%
60%
Total
India
Mexico
S Africa
Peru
China
Indonesia
Brazil
Russia
Turkey
S Korea
Argentina
U.S.
Australia
Poland
Belgium
Canada
France
Spain
GB
Germany
Japan
Sweden
ItalyKEY:
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
41
FOR CONSUMER
I measure my success
by the things I own
UNDERSTANDING,
COUNTRIES
37%
70%
63%
61%
58%
53%
42%
38%
38%
36%
36%
34%
32%
31%
30%
29%
27%
27%
27%
25%
24%
23%
21%
21%
60%
24%
35%
38%
40%
43%
57%
56%
58%
57%
62%
63%
63%
66%
69%
68%
69%
60%
69%
72%
74%
74%
77%
78%
Total
China
India
Turkey
Brazil
S Korea
Indonesia
France
Poland
Russia
S Africa
U.S.
Belgium
Germany
Peru
Australia
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Canada
GB
Argentina
Spain
Sweden
KEY:
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Agree 2014 Disagree 2014Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
MATTER
43
%THE GUESS:
Q: What % of people
in your country are
very/fairly happy?
%THE REALITY:
…is much more
positive…
44
MORE IN
People across the
world have more
things in common
than things that make
them different
COMMON?
KEY:
KEY:
Agree 2016 Disagree 2016
Agree 2014 Disagree 2014Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
66%
79%
77%
76%
76%
76%
73%
72%
72%
72%
72%
71%
71%
69%
66%
65%
64%
61%
60%
59%
57%
55%
48%
37%
26%
18%
19%
21%
20%
20%
19%
20%
18%
19%
23%
21%
23%
23%
27%
30%
31%
33%
32%
31%
36%
32%
43%
42%
Total
India
S Africa
Mexico
Turkey
Peru
Russia
Argentina
Australia
China
Spain
GB
U.S.
Canada
Germany
Sweden
Indonesia
Brazil
Belgium
Poland
Italy
France
S Korea
Japan