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Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014

Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

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Page 1: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Fourth Quarter 2013Earnings Conference Call

January 29, 2014

Page 2: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking StatementsCertain information contained in this presentation is forward-looking information based on current expectations and plans that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking information includes, among other things, statements concerning statements concerning future regulatory actions, rate cases, projected cost and schedule forthe completion of ongoing construction projects, earnings per share guidance, the economic recovery, dividend growth, dividend payout ratio, and financing activities.Southern Company cautions that there are certain factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information that has beenprovided. The reader is cautioned not to put undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is not a guarantee of future performance and is subject to anumber of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Southern Company; accordingly, there can be no assurance that such suggestedresults will be realized. The following factors, in addition to those discussed in Southern Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31,2012, and subsequent securities filings, could cause actual results to differ materially from management expectations as suggested by such forward-lookinginformation: the impact of recent and future federal and state regulatory changes, including legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation andrestructuring of the electric utility industry, environmental laws including regulation of water, coal combustion byproducts, and emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, carbon,soot, particulate matter, hazardous air pollutants, including mercury, and other substances, and also changes in tax and other laws and regulations to which SouthernCompany and its subsidiaries are subject, as well as changes in application of existing laws and regulations; current and future litigation, regulatory investigations,proceedings, or inquiries, including the pending Environmental Protection Agency civil actions against certain Southern Company subsidiaries, Federal EnergyRegulatory Commission matters, and Internal Revenue Service and state tax audits; the effects, extent, and timing of the entry of additional competition in the marketsin which Southern Company’s subsidiaries operate; variations in demand for electricity, including those relating to weather, the general economy and recovery fromthe recent recession, population and business growth (and declines), the effects of energy conservation measures, and any potential economic impacts resulting fromfederal fiscal decisions; available sources and costs of fuels; effects of inflation; ability to control costs and avoid cost overruns during the development andconstruction of facilities, which include the development and construction of facilities with designs that have not been finalized or previously constructed, including theimpact of factors such as labor costs and productivity, adverse weather conditions, shortages and inconsistent quality of equipment, materials, and labor, or contractoror supplier delay or non-performance under construction or other agreements, delays associated with start-up activities, including major equipment failure, systemintegration, and operations, and/or unforeseen engineering problems; ability to construct facilities in accordance with the requirements of permits and licenses and tosatisfy any operational and environmental performance standards, including the requirements of tax credits and other incentives; investment performance of SouthernCompany’s employee and retiree benefit plans and the Southern Company system’s nuclear decommissioning trust funds; advances in technology; state and federalrate regulations and the impact of pending and future rate cases and negotiations, including rate actions relating to fuel and other cost recovery mechanisms;regulatory approvals and actions related to the Plant Vogtle expansion, including Georgia Public Service Commission (“PSC”) approvals, Nuclear RegulatoryCommission actions, and potential U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantees; actions related to cost recovery for the Kemper County integrated coal gasificationcombined cycle facility (“Kemper IGCC”), including actions relating to proposed securitization, Mississippi PSC approval of Mississippi Power Company’s proposedrate recovery plan, as revised, which includes the ability to complete the proposed sale of an interest in the Kemper IGCC to South Mississippi Electric PowerAssociation, the ability to utilize bonus depreciation, which currently requires that the Kemper IGCC be placed in service in 2014, and satisfaction of requirements toutilize investment tax credits and grants; Mississippi PSC review of the prudence of Kemper IGCC costs; the outcome of any legal or regulatory proceedings regardingthe Mississippi PSC’s issuance of the Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity for the Kemper IGCC, the settlement agreement between Mississippi PowerCompany and the Mississippi PSC, or the State of Mississippi legislation designed to enhance the Mississippi PSC’s authority to facilitate development andconstruction of baseload generation in the State of Mississippi; the inherent risks involved in operating and constructing nuclear generating facilities, includingenvironmental, health, regulatory, natural disaster, terrorism, and financial risks; the performance of projects undertaken by the non-utility businesses and the successof efforts to invest in and develop new opportunities; internal restructuring or other restructuring options that may be pursued; potential business strategies, includingacquisitions or dispositions of assets or businesses, which cannot be assured to be completed or beneficial to Southern Company or its subsidiaries; the ability ofcounterparties of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to make payments as and when due and to perform as required; the ability to obtain new short- and long-term contracts with wholesale customers; the direct or indirect effect on the Southern Company system’s business resulting from terrorist incidents and the threat ofterrorist incidents, including cyber intrusion; interest rate fluctuations and financial market conditions and the results of financing efforts, including Southern Company’sand its subsidiaries’ credit ratings; the impacts of any potential U.S. credit rating downgrade or other sovereign financial issues, including impacts on interest rates,access to capital markets, impacts on currency exchange rates, counterparty performance, and the economy in general, as well as potential impacts on the availabilityor benefits of proposed U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantees; the ability of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to obtain additional generating capacity atcompetitive prices; catastrophic events such as fires, earthquakes, explosions, floods, hurricanes, droughts, pandemic health events such as influenzas, or othersimilar occurrences; the direct or indirect effects on the Southern Company system’s business resulting from incidents affecting the U.S. electric grid or operation ofgenerating resources; and the effect of accounting pronouncements issued periodically by standard setting bodies. Southern Company expressly disclaims anyobligation to update any forward-looking information.

2

Page 3: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Agenda

• 2013 Operational Highlights

• Vogtle & Kemper Updates

• 2013 Financial & Sales Results

• Updated Forecast

3

Page 4: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Major Regulatory Activities in 2013

4GulfGeorgiaAlabama Mississippi

Page 5: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

38%

42%

16%

Outstanding Operational Performance

5

2013 Generation Mix

NuclearCoal

Gas

Safety• 2013 was our safest year ever

Customer Satisfaction• Southern Company took the top five

spots in annual benchmark survey

Reliability • 2013 was our best year for

transmission and distribution

A customer-focused business model

Providing the lowest cost energy to our customers

Page 6: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Vogtle Unit 3 Progress

6

Nucle

ar

Islan

dTu

rbin

e Isl

and

January 2013 December 2013

January 2013 December 2013

Cool

ing

Towe

r

January 2013 December 2013

Page 7: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Vogtle Unit 3 CA20 Module

7

Page 8: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Vogtle Unit 3 Nuclear Island – 2014 Activity

8

Current View

Projected Year-End

View

Middle Ring

Auxiliary Building Walls to Elevation 100’

CA-20

Lower Ring

CA-01

Shield Building Panel Installation

CA-03

CA-02(Inside Vessel)

CA-05(Inside Vessel)

CA-04CB-65

Auxiliary Building Walls to Elevation 82’6”

Waste Tanks

Page 9: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Kemper IGCC

9

In Progress• 679K linear feet of gasifier

piping installed (~75%)• Testing of combined cycle

Upcoming for 2014• First gasifier heat up • Reliable syngas to combined cycle

Steam Piping in Gasifier Island

Combined Cycle

Gas Clean-Up

Page 10: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Kemper IGCC

10

Gasifier

Combined Cycle Gas Clean-

Up

Cooling Towers

LigniteDelivery

Page 11: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Q4 2013 Earnings Results

11

Q4 YTD

Earnings Per Share $0.47 $1.88

Impact of increase in Kemper cost estimate $0.03 $0.83

Impact of Leveraged Lease Restructure $0.00 $0.02

Impact of MCAR settlement ($0.02) ($0.02)

Earnings Per Share x-items $0.48 $2.71

Page 12: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

FY12 FY13

-3¢ 2¢3¢ -2¢

2¢ -1¢-1¢

10¢ -3¢

$2.68

$2.71

CustomerUsage &Growth

Other Revenue Effects

Weather

Wholesale Revenues

Other OperatingRevenues

PPA Expense

D&AOther

Income

Income Taxes

Shares

Taxes Other Than

Income Tax

-2¢Interest ExpenseNon-fuel

O&M

-2¢

Traditional Operating

Companies 7¢

-1¢

-6¢

Southern Power Parent

and Other

FY2013 vs. FY2012 Adjusted EPS Drivers

12Note: Excludes 2013 -83¢ EPS impact of updated Kemper Project cost estimate, 2013 -2¢ EPS impact of Leveraged Lease Restructure, 2013 +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement, and 2012 +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement. GAAP EPS was $1.88 for 2013 vs. $2.70 for 2012.

Page 13: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

2013 Retail Sales

13

As ReportedResidential 0.2%Commercial -0.9%Industrial 1.5%Total Retail 0.3%

Weather Normal*-0.3%-0.1%1.5%0.4%

As Reported Weather Normal6.0%1.4%4.8%3.9%

0.5%-0.1%4.8%1.7%

Q4 YTD

* Also reflects reclassification of January 2012 KWH sales among customer classes consistent with actual advanced meter data;use of actual advanced meter data was implemented during the first quarter of 2012

-0.9%-0.5%

1.0%

1.7%

0.4%Q1 Q2

Q3 Q4 Year

As expected, stronger 2nd half sales growth

Page 14: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

14

Expected 2014 Sales Growth

GDP projected to grow 2.5% – 3.0%

Industrial activity continues to improve with many new entrants being international firms

Housing markets continue to improve with housing-related sectors benefiting

Economic momentum from late 2013 carrying into 2014

Economic Roundtable

2014 Outlook

Page 15: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

$15.9B Capital Expenditure Program (2014-2016)

14 - '16Potential Southern Power

Growth Projects 1.4

Southern Power Base 0.4

Environmental 3.2

New Generation 2.3

T&D Growth 1.3

Nuclear Fuel 0.9

Maintenance 5.4

Other 1.0

2014 2015 2016

$6.1B

$5.4B

$4.5B

Base$14.5B

15Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding and amounts are subject to change with filing of the 2013 10-K

Includes amounts for which Mississippi will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions,of $0.5B in 2014 ($1.1B gross, net of projected proceeds from sale of 15% to SMEPA)

Page 16: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

2014 – 2016 Financing Plan

16

($ in billions) 2014 2015 2016

Equity Issuances $ 0.6 $ - $ -

Georgia DOE Loan $ 1.5 $ 1.1 $ 0.4Mississippi Securitization - 0.9 -Capital Markets Issuances:

Long Term Securities Issuances $ 2.8 $ 4.0 $ 1.90.4 1.3 1.3Maturity & Bridge Financing Replacement

New Money 0.9 0.7 0.2

Note: Additional details are provided in the appendix

Page 17: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

2014 Earnings Per Share Guidance

17

$2.72

$2.80

$2.71

$2.64

-7¢

2013 EPS*Dilution from Kemper

write-offs 2014 & beyond

+4¢ (+1.5%)

-4¢ (-1.5%)

Adjusted base for growth

* Excludes -83¢ EPS impact of updated Kemper Project cost estimate, -2¢ EPS impact of Leveraged Lease Restructure, and +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement. GAAP EPS was $1.88 for 2013.

Page 18: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Invested Capital Growth is Expected to Slow

18

CAGR

5.8%5.3%

4.9%

3.6%

2008 - 2013 2014 2015 2016

Page 19: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

2015 & 2016 Earnings Per Share Growth

19

2014

$2.72

$2.80

$2.91

$2.80

2015

$3.03

$2.89

2016

74% - 77%$2.08

74% - 77%$2.15

73% - 77%$2.22Dividend Forecast

Implied Payout Ratio

$2.71*

$2.64

-7¢

Potential longer-termEPS Growth Drivers• Regulated Capacity

• So Power Capacity

• Effluent Guidelines (ELG)

• 316(b)

• Coal Ash Rules (CCR)

• Equity ratio

* Excludes -83¢ EPS impact of updated Kemper Project cost estimate, -2¢ EPS impact of Leveraged Lease Restructure, and +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement. GAAP EPS was $1.88 for 2013.

Page 20: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Guidance and Dividends

20

On average over the past 10 years, Southern Company has had the smallest guidance ranges

(measured as a % of the midpoint)

SO

Average EPS Guidance Range Size of UTY Companies 2004-2013

During this same time frame, Southern Company has increased its common dividend every single year

UTY average

* Excluding non-recurring items as identified in the earnings release for each respective year 2004-2013

Page 21: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Appendix

21

Page 22: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

22

Capacity Factors Q4 YTD2012 2013 2012 2013

Coal - PRB 82% 79% 71% 73%

Coal - Non-PRB 18% 25% 29% 32%

Gas - Combined Cycle 69% 65% 71% 66%

Generation Portfolio Diversity

Generation Mix Q4 YTD2012 2013 2012 2013

Gas/Oil 47% 43% 45% 42%

Coal 32% 37% 36% 38%

Nuclear 19% 17% 17% 16%

Hydro/Other 2% 3% 2% 4%

Page 23: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

Q4 2012 Q4 2013

$0.44

$0.48

-2¢

-1¢2¢

1¢ 1¢

Other Operating Revenues

Weather

Non-FuelO&M

D&A Other Income

InterestExpense

SouthernPower

Traditional Operating

Companies 7¢

CustomerGrowth

-1¢-1¢

Parent and Other

Income Taxes

Q4 2013 vs. Q4 2012 Adjusted EPS Drivers

23 Note: Excludes Q4 2013 -3¢ EPS impact of updated Kemper Project cost estimate and 2013 +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement; GAAP EPS was $0.47 for Q4 2013 vs. $0.44 for Q4 2012

-1¢

Shares

Page 24: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

2014 – 2016 CapEx Forecast – Functional

24

Total$billions 2014 2015 2016 ‘14-’16

New Generation $1.2 $0.7 $0.5 $2.3Environmental Compliance 1.5 1.1 0.6 3.2

Transmission 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4Distribution 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9

Total T&D Growth 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3Generation 0.9 0.9 0.8 2.7Transmission 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.5Distribution 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2

Total Maintenance (G, T & D) 2.0 1.8 1.6 5.4Nuclear Fuel 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9General 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.0Traditional OpCo Total $5.6 $4.7 $3.8 $14.1Southern Power 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4

Potential Southern Power Growth Projects 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4

Total Capex $6.1 $5.4 $4.5 $15.9

Base Total $5.8 $4.8 $3.9 $14.5

Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding and amounts are subject to change with filing of the 2013 10-KIncludes amounts for which Mississippi will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions,of $0.5B in 2014 ($1.1B gross, net of projected proceeds from sale of 15% to SMEPA)

Page 25: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

2014 – 2016 CapEx Forecast – Company

25

Total$billions 2014 2015 2016 '14 - '16

Alabama Power $1.7 $1.7 $1.2 $4.6Georgia Power 2.5 2.4 2.1 7.0Gulf Power 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.9Mississippi Power 0.8 0.3 0.2 1.3Other Subsidiaries 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3Traditional OpCo Total $5.6 $4.7 $3.8 $14.1Southern Power 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4

Potential Southern Power Growth Projects 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4

Total Capex $6.1 $5.4 $4.5 $15.9

Base Total $5.8 $4.8 $3.9 $14.5

Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding and amounts are subject to change with filing of the 2013 10-KIncludes amounts for which Mississippi will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions,of $0.5B in 2014 ($1.1B gross, net of projected proceeds from sale of 15% to SMEPA)

Page 26: Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call · Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2014 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this

2014 – 2016 long-term securities issuances

26

($ in billions) 2014 2015 2016Alabama Power $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 0.4 Georgia Power - 0.8 0.2 Gulf Power 0.2 0.1 0.1 Mississippi Power 0.5 - 0.3 Southern Power 1 - 0.3 -Holding Company 0.3 - 0.5 Long Term Market Issuances $ 1.3 $ 2.0 $ 1.5Georgia DOE Loan 1.5 1.1 0.4Mississippi Securitization - 0.9 -Long Term Securities Issuances $ 2.8 $ 4.0 $ 1.9

1 Potential Southern Power growth projects would require additional funding of $500M and $250M in 2015 and 2016, respectively

Totals may not add due to rounding