Fossil-Fuel Energy Resources

PHY 105 Fall 2008

Human Population

Human Population

World Energy Use

Coal

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Biomass

Geothermal, wind, solar, etc.

RE

Total~400 Quadrillion Btu

World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

U.S. Oil Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Year

Mil

lio

n b

arr

els

pe

r y

ea

r

US Production Gaussian

Peak models – world production

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

18

50

19

00

19

50

20

00

20

50

21

00

21

50

Year

Bill

ion

ba

rre

ls p

er

ye

ar

BPreserves

USGS(BP + 50%)

World Oil Production and Prices

Recent World Oil ProductionT

hous

and

barr

els

per

day

Tho

usan

d ba

rrel

s pe

r da

y

A Brief History of Oil

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

Year

Bill

ion

bar

rels

per

yea

r

World Oil Discovery

ANWR

Natural Gas

National Petroleum Council (1998)US Prod. Import from Canada

1998 19 Tcf 3.0 Tcf2005 22.6 Tcf 3.7 Tcf2010 25.1 Tcf 3.8 Tcf2015 26.6 Tcf 4.3 Tcf

Now the numbers are more like …1998 19.0 Tcf2001 19.6 Tcf 2003 19.1 Tcf2006 18.5 Tcf

Canada produced 6.6 Tcf in 2002 and is flat or decreasingslowly, with increasing domestic demand.

“Natural Gas: Meeting the Challenge of the Nation’s Growing Natural Gas Demand” National Petroleum Council 1999 http://www.npc.org

U.S. Natural Gas

U.S. Coal Production

Reserves/Production for Coal (years left)

World reserves (BP estimates): 1993 - 250 years 2005 – 155 years2007 – 133 years3% growth – 60 years

Coal Prices

Tar Sands

Alberta, CanadaAlberta, Canada Effectively a mining operationEffectively a mining operation Current production of >10Current production of >1066 b/d of synthetic crude oil b/d of synthetic crude oil Estimate ~3Estimate ~3×10×1066 b/d in 10 yrs., 5b/d in 10 yrs., 5×10×1066 b/d in 25 yrs. b/d in 25 yrs.

Needs large amounts of NG and waterNeeds large amounts of NG and water EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1 Cost ~$25/bbl (existing), $50/bbl (new projects)Cost ~$25/bbl (existing), $50/bbl (new projects)

Oil Shale

Western U.S.Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !!Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined productA mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not large scaleTechniques proven in principle, but not large scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bblOnly profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 10High growth, optimum scenario – 1066 bpd in 2025 bpd in 2025 EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1

Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

EROEI

“Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States”Cutler J. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782

Tar

san

ds

Hyd

ro

Win

d

Options??

Tar sandsTar sands Shale oilShale oil HydrogenHydrogen EthanolEthanol Decreased Decreased

consumptionconsumption

Environ. + production problemsEnviron. + production problems Environ. + production problemsEnviron. + production problems Currently uses NG; see aboveCurrently uses NG; see above Corn – land, net energy probs.Corn – land, net energy probs. Sign of personal virtueSign of personal virtue

Solar Energy Resource

Yearly insolation

World energyuse per year

U

Coal

Oil

NG

Worldwide energy reserves