Forward With Growth Diagnostics Back to Industrial Policy? Reflections from Uganda CEM

Forward With Growth Diagnostics Back to Industrial Policy? Reflections from Uganda CEMPresented to:Economic PolicyGrowth BBL Series26 March, 2008Presented by:Dino MerottoAFTP2World BankThe World Bank

This Presentation The World BankReflections: Diagnostic Journey & ApproachSome CEM Findings & Recommendations

Ugandas Recent Growth Policy Debates What growth advice can the Bank offer a mature reformer?

ESW: Conclusions & Where Next to be Useful?

This Presentation The World BankReflections: Diagnostics Journey, Approach

Approach 1 - SpecificityLandlocked -(and Rural) => Transport MattersDemographics: - Worlds highest dependency ratio-Most youthful population (53% under 15)-2nd most rural in AFR 80% (econ informal)-3rd fastest fertility rate in the world-workforce will double in 15 years then?

Conflict Affected -New Markets? - Sensitivity to unbalanced growth

Good Policies: - stable macro (more than 15 years)- advanced structural reforms where next?

Whats Special About Uganda ?

Approach 2 Consider MicroHousehold Data -Social Indicators, INF access, micro firms,(UNHS, Census, NSDS) - Agric information, crop prices, creditFirm Data : - ICA, CODB-Business Register / Census (employment)-Business Inquiry (value added, costs)

Sector Data -Agric Market Surveys, productivity pilots(Farms and Banks)- Banking surveillance data (assets, rates)

Spatial Data - Adds Geographical space to agents info(GPS in firm data, farms) - Good to link INF assets to firms / farms

Look at Micro Foundations: Firms and Farms

Approach 3 Multi DiagnosticLook Back -Growth Accounting Macro, Agriculture- Infrastructure Expenditures, AccessConsider Present Growth diagnostic HRV-Great to organize, useful syndromes, prices-Look for / consider likely constraintsLook Forward - Growth paths => constraints not enough-MAMS CGE model- Dutch disease model (Bevan / Adam)Compare- Benchmarking to compensate for data gaps for HRV have to look internationalLook Back, Present, Forward, Compare, Map !Map it !- Geography as presentational tool- INF assets & productivity, agglomeration

This Presentation The World BankKey Findings From CEM Diagnostics

Dont Need A Fundamental Change Growth Has Been Strong

The World Bank Page*The World BankWorlds Fastest Growing Countries In The 1990s (Per Capita Income)

Dont Need Fundamental ChangeGood Policies Have Helped Growth

The World Bank Page*The World Bank

Past Growth AccountingMostly the TFP Residual


Past Growth AccountingHuman Capital Improvements Underway


Chart1

0.8470.932

0.8240.915

0.7560.871

0.6490.788

0.5220.683

0.3820.54

0.2440.365

0.1270.24

0.0850.163

Uga 1995

Uga 2000

grade

15-19 years

Fig.1 GDP growth 1960-2004

-6.00937173581960

1.76489725651961

28.07592969651962

3.44914197031963

0.02469942571964

3.67902591875.4610593226

13.81280161837.3987388535

-3.41077189239.8083197259

7.51735553543.5109794081

7.17306376284.3246221212

-22.61701926685.7542949886

21.98737002760.4950859515

-11.85024350222.1299996333

0.70041331670.4421053114

-15.1671587798-0.9212831324

-9.1510162328-5.3893276409

1.6011589435-2.6961270341

-16.2463972942-6.7733692509

26.2743409621-7.6526000093

-38.7428928514-2.5378144802

5.4843130987-7.2529612946

5.9958011295-4.3258954282

8.2674184756-3.4469669911

-6.54817861321.4557961629

2.0438174201-5.1087077522

0.60835514133.0486343021

12.38168934232.0734427107

7.71844298923.3506203532

7.42768779283.240825256

4.29801419626.0359985372

5.55409443066.4868378924

3.41835928947.4759857502

8.32629880535.6833197396

6.40361444295.8048909029

11.52326289325.6000762329

9.07211258427.0451259723

4.74753478837.748729603

5.59931892188.0145647028

7.49999422497.4691687261

5.00224154967.6884446825

5.56.3842404138

5.35.6698178969

4.95.7803109393

55.6404471549

20045.1404483099

GDP growth

5-yr m.a of GDP growth

%

Fig. 5 Growth and TFP trend

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

5.46105932260.5145638249

7.39873885352.0616548601

9.80831972594.0957080969

3.5109794081-2.2825612074

4.3246221212-1.3766312866

5.75429498860.2912670819

0.4950859515-4.7306299949

2.1299996333-2.3704988886

0.4421053114-3.4001750314

-0.9212831324-4.0265433014

-5.3893276409-7.9376828351

-2.6961270341-4.7748184441

-6.7733692509-8.8530617157

-7.6526000093-9.7172621778

-2.5378144802-4.4907592553

-7.2529612946-9.2021085195

-4.3258954282-6.1855231824

-3.4469669911-5.0891964596

1.45579616290.0901432214

-5.1087077522-6.32699398

3.04863430211.9734336644

2.07344271070.8273105236

3.35062035321.6105244563

3.2408252560.8962846422

6.03599853723.0774353867

6.48683789242.801268773

7.47598575023.9721094779

5.68331973962.6306113933

5.80489090293.248793112

5.60007623293.5984663232

7.04512597235.710105899

7.7487296036.337424069

8.01456470286.4847170168

7.46916872615.8224668334

7.68844468255.9239177267

6.38424041384.4976535193


TFP growth

%

5-year moving average of GDP Growth and Total Factor Productivity(1960-2000)

Fig. 9 Growth in factors

19601960

19611961

19621962

19631963

19641964

6.33903903994.0181331363

6.7690077314.3824681685

7.40190956554.5864130047

7.6360375234.565209344

7.53157286144.4810404387

7.15760799294.3333078492

7.14963990613.9430999732

6.03049262583.4805024527

4.95118912273.1030078228

3.70965450712.7023306103

2.74224776022.4190934835

1.55013229242.4310641551

1.26772070492.6210069714

0.93469434562.8179740504

0.41192790122.9802893576

0.26855191193.0695441003

0.27820354882.9139105576

0.10546081442.6667419047

-0.25082585442.443305472

-0.33809113162.2558711342

-0.45957005032.0983810965

-0.69162605842.5379710174

-0.3911063823.1608974162

0.09940143183.8413000684

0.35621273334.6934634286

0.70849073725.6702880408

0.53125566525.4856233438

0.00889080495.0819200407

-0.47204645784.5748606232

-0.86929682033.9155477296

-1.3051022313.0951016094

-0.93514681672.9756071011

-0.53032491622.9032960875

-0.13952853362.8375221769

0.24385603412.7783075702

0.6279636912.7256690301

Source: Worl Bank

Physical Cap Stock Growth

Human Capital Growth

%

5-year average for growth of factors of production in Uganda(1960-2000)

TFP chart

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

0.5145638249

2.0616548601

4.0957080969

-2.2825612074

-1.3766312866

0.2912670819

-4.7306299949

-2.3704988886

-3.4001750314

-4.0265433014

-7.9376828351

-4.7748184441

-8.8530617157

-9.7172621778

-4.4907592553

-9.2021085195

-6.1855231824

-5.0891964596

0.0901432214

-6.32699398

1.9734336644

0.8273105236

1.6105244563

0.8962846422

3.0774353867

2.801268773

3.9721094779

2.6306113933

3.248793112

3.5984663232

5.710105899

6.337424069

6.4847170168

5.8224668334

5.9239177267

4.4976535193

TFP growth

%

5-year average of TFP growth

data

From Worl Bank data base (PREM Total produtcivity Toolkit)

196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Total physical cap. stock (cons.1987 local pr.) 1/3.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+114.E+114.E+114.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+115.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+116.E+11Total physical cap. stock (cons.1987 local pr.) 1/Gross capital formation (cons. 1987 prices)GDP at market prices (cons.1987 local pr.)Average Years of SchoolingTotal labor forceHuman Capital

Gross capital formation (cons. 1987 prices)............................................9.E+099.E+099.E+099.E+099.E+091.E+101.E+101.E+101.E+101.E+101.E+101.E+102.E+102.E+102.E+102.E+103.E+103.E+103.E+101960253,670,391,808.00..240,252,993,536.001.153,563,166.003,997,421.2926.25930159120

GDP at market prices (cons.1987 local pr.)2.E+112.E+112.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+114.E+113.E+114.E+114.E+113.E+114.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+112.E+113.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+114.E+114.E+114.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+111961264,751,005,696.00..225,815,298,048.001.163,668,256.004,118,567.6326.302055620100.04275402890

Average Years of Schooling1.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+004.E+001962276,524,007,424.00..229,800,706,048.001.173,798,679.004,268,391.1726.345563480300.04350786020

Total labor force4.E+064.E+064.E+064.E+064.E+064.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+069.E+069.E+069.E+069.E+061.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071963293,591,515,136.00..294,319,390,720.001.173,959,370.004,452,512.2726.405455233900.05989175360

Human Capital4.E+064.E+064.E+064.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+069.E+069.E+069.E+061.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+072.E+071964320,633,798,656.00..304,470,884,352.001.184,135,794.004,654,657.5926.493565494700.08811026080

1965344,672,501,760.00..304,546,086,912.001.194,321,239.004,867,313.6226.565860532900.07229503820

1966367,138,111,488.00..315,750,416,384.001.244,510,006.005,103,489.6726.629003939800.06314340690

GDP growth-6.011.7628.083.450.023.6813.81-3.417.527.17-22.6221.99-11.850.70-15.17-9.151.60-16.2526.27-38.745.486.008.27-6.552.040.6112.387.727.434.305.553.428.336.4011.529.074.755.607.505.005.505.304.905.005.43-1.730.466.642.691967395,082,203,136.00..359,364,395,008.001.284,697,429.005,341,183.8126.702359689400.07335574960

Cap Stock Growth4.374.456.179.217.506.527.617.348.695.636.482.021.952.480.790.520.600.28-0.130.070.57-0.26-1.50-0.57-0.53-0.591.240.950.711.23-1.48-1.37-1.45-1.27-0.950.370.650.500.650.976.872.060.01-0.312.011968424,092,303,360.00..347,107,295,232.001.334,870,698.005,565,918.2026.773216965100.07085727570

Human Capital Growth3.033.644.314.544.574.854.664.214.123.832.902.342.322.122.412.963.293.302.932.862.182.062.191.992.074.385.175.596.256.963.463.153.052.952.852.862.792.732.662.594.212.843.473.353.431969460,939,689,984.00..373,200,584,704.001.395,045,095.005,795,188.6126.856533047100.0833160820

TFP growth-9.57-2.2023.02-2.96-5.72-1.847.97-8.871.572.62-26.9519.77-14.02-1.56-16.93-11.13-0.62-18.3424.57-40.493.954.867.55-7.511.01-1.788.783.983.39-0.374.072.077.075.1410.197.212.813.765.653.060.16-4.26-1.624.76-0.171970486,878,707,712.00..399,970,500,608.001.445,210,172.006,017,144.8526.911280868900.05474782180

1971518,419,283,968.00..309,509,095,424.001.445,363,489.006,191,717.1526.974050180300.06276931140

5-yr m.a of GDP growth5.467.409.813.514.325.750.502.130.44-0.92-5.39-2.70-6.77-7.65-2.54-7.25-4.33-3.451.46-5.113.052.073.353.246.046.497.485.685.805.607.057.758.017.477.696.385.675.785.645.146.10-1.71-0.096.902.442.336.901972528,868,507,648.00..377,562,005,504.001.435,491,438.006,336,881.6526.994005670100.01995548980

Physical Cap Stock Growth6.346.777.407.647.537.167.156.034.953.712.741.551.270.930.410.270.280.11-0.25-0.34-0.46-0.69-0.390.100.360.710.530.01-0.47-0.87-1.31-0.94-0.53-0.140.240.630.690.710.810.977.143.59-0.10-0.281.901.941973539,161,788,416.00..332,819,988,480.001.435,621,093.006,483,903.8427.013281526900.01927585670

Human Capital Growth4.024.384.594.574.484.333.943.483.102.702.422.432.622.822.983.072.912.672.442.262.102.543.163.844.695.675.495.084.573.923.102.982.902.842.782.732.692.662.622.594.413.082.973.933.463.481974552,537,620,480.00..335,151,104,000.001.425,742,314.006,621,090.1427.037787359400.02450583250

TFP growth0.512.064.10-2.28-1.380.29-4.73-2.37-3.40-4.03-7.94-4.77-8.85-9.72-4.49-9.20-6.19-5.090.09-6.331.970.831.610.903.082.803.972.633.253.605.716.346.485.825.924.503.824.164.353.060.60-5.00-1.834.65-0.40-0.541975556,904,808,448.00..284,318,203,904.001.425,883,263.006,780,911.5527.045660161800.00787280240

1976559,787,016,192.00..258,300,198,912.001.486,020,874.006,981,701.2327.050822220100.00516205830

110.1%-4.0%77.9%83.2%1977563,165,528,064.00..262,435,995,648.001.546,180,040.007,211,693.0627.056839432600.00601721250

1987-921993-971998-2004-3194.2%57.0%141.9%149.6%1978564,748,877,824.00..219,799,601,152.001.616,342,362.007,450,035.0927.059647005300.00280757260

1972.5%67.4%-16.3%-23.1%1979563,997,900,800.00..277,550,497,792.001.686,483,335.007,668,125.5127.05831636650-0.00133063880

6.808.015.541980564,412,481,536.00..170,019,405,824.001.756,621,168.007,887,441.3327.059051171400.00073480490

1981567,605,919,744.00..179,343,802,368.001.786,748,635.008,059,618.9527.064693211600.00564204020

8.311982566,129,131,520.009,120,964,696.83190,096,900,096.001.806,869,920.008,225,515.3927.062088036722.9338414136-0.00260517490

1983557,635,600,384.008,848,034,405.23205,813,006,336.001.837,001,992.008,405,469.6427.046971540122.9034611702-0.0151164966-0.0303802434

1984554,460,971,008.008,841,015,264.96192,336,003,072.001.857,122,539.008,572,755.5227.041262255322.902667556-0.0057092848-0.0007936142

1985551,500,775,424.008,619,463,447.81196,266,999,808.001.887,250,742.008,750,438.4627.035909081722.8772886747-0.0053531737-0.0253788813

1986548,222,205,952.008,832,771,856.03197,461,000,192.002.107,403,643.009,133,784.9627.02994652722.9017347158-0.00596255460.0244460411

1987555,033,427,968.0012,089,000,000.00221,910,007,808.002.357,597,538.009,606,275.4627.042294179523.21556178520.01234765240.3138270694

1988560,318,775,296.0014,900,696,196.25239,038,005,248.002.627,804,912.0010,143,244.1327.051771700323.42467377340.00947752090.2091119882

1989564,323,680,256.0014,180,540,565.90256,793,001,984.002.938,042,262.0010,777,300.3027.05889382523.3751364790.0071221247-0.0495372943

1990571,250,769,920.0014,391,767,717.41267,830,001,664.003.278,311,970.0011,527,052.2727.071094126923.38992219380.01220030190.0147857147

1991562,792,506,840.6114,804,795,151.81282,705,532,869.913.298,582,386.0011,925,607.0127.05617684823.418216962-0.01491727890.0282947682

1992555,085,601,718.7914,141,200,733.20292,369,423,714.503.318,835,534.0012,301,798.0527.042388176123.3723584113-0.0137886719-0.0458585507

1993547,023,378,383.2514,925,548,849.90316,712,975,548.183.339,087,221.0012,677,553.1127.027757377723.4263402694-0.01463079840.0539818581

1994540,067,992,097.8116,463,842,411.74336,994,053,392.883.359,336,894.0013,052,105.7227.014960879923.5244324443-0.01279649790.0980921749

1995534,929,114,825.6423,371,696,665.47375,826,764,099.693.379,584,000.0013,424,683.1927.005400079423.874791583-0.00956080050.3503591387

1996536,903,646,898.0924,991,281,665.85409,922,191,260.383.409,830,993.0013,808,640.8627.009084486923.94179286760.00368440740.0670012846

1997540,418,782,688.0124,327,238,348.74429,383,389,895.383.4310,077,540.0014,194,306.0127.015610199423.91486247920.0065257126-0.0269303884

1998543,129,269,729.2325,230,666,996.36453,425,935,292.913.4510,323,270.0014,581,186.4527.020613194323.95132603590.00500299490.0364635567

1999546,634,765,936.4227,162,358,885.21487,432,854,254.023.4810,567,830.0014,968,810.0827.027046712424.02509798730.00643351810.0737719514

2000551,931,734,184.1727,131,711,359.94511,815,423,015.913.5110,810,870.0015,356,703.8227.036690205624.02396904160.0096434932-0.0011289457

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notes

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CB &H Chart1

0.00

CB &Heffler

1.174.17

-0.673.67

-1.472.9

-6.321.16

0.132.25

-0.035.94

2.297.7

C&B(1996) residues

Hoffler(1999 residues)

%

TFP measurement(Residuals) from the C&B growth Decomposition and Hoeffler Output per worker decompoistion(1966-1997)

Fig. 12 Education

C&B(1996) residuesHoffler(1999 residues)

1960-641.174.17

1965-69-0.673.67

1970-74-1.472.9

1975-79-6.321.16

1980-840.132.25

1985-89-0.035.94

1990-972.297.7

Sheet5

School enrolment

15-1930-39

gradeUga 1995Uga 2000Ghana(1998)Uga 1995Uga 2000Ghana(1998)

10.8470.9320.8770.6830.7760.726

20.8240.9150.8680.6620.7430.719

30.7560.8710.850.6140.6790.693

40.6490.7880.8230.5390.6040.67

50.5220.6830.7860.4610.5310.653

60.3820.540.730.3960.4430.616

70.2440.3650.6530.3120.3320.579

80.1270.240.530.1710.2050.54

90.0850.1630.4050.1530.1820.503

Education attainement for 2 age groups: Proportion of age group who have completed grade

Source: World Bank Research Project on Education Attainment and Enrolment around the World (www.worldbank/research/projects/edattain.htm)

Sheet5

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Uga 1995

Uga 2000

grade

%

15-19 years

Sheet6

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Uga 1995

Uga 2000

grade

%

30-39 years

Investment as share of GDP87-9293-9798-04

1986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/98

fixed9.710.811.112.715.215.915.214.615.416.615.515.512.5715.46

public4.35.65.46.27.47.46.75.45.46.35.65.66.055.88

private5.45.25.76.57.88.58.59.11010.39.99.96.529.56

machinery3.84.54.45.26.165.34.75.65.43.73.45.004.94

construction5.96.36.77.599.99.99.99.811.211.8127.5510.52

Chart2

0.6830.776

0.6620.743

0.6140.679

0.5390.604

0.4610.531

0.3960.443

0.3120.332

0.1710.205

0.1530.182

Uga 1995

Uga 2000

grade

30-39 years

Fig.1 GDP growth 1960-2004

-6.00937173581960

1.76489725651961

28.07592969651962

3.44914197031963

0.02469942571964

3.67902591875.4610593226

13.81280161837.3987388535

-3.41077189239.8083197259

7.51735553543.5109794081

7.17306376284.3246221212

-22.61701926685.7542949886

21.98737002760.4950859515

-11.85024350222.1299996333

0.70041331670.4421053114

-15.1671587798-0.9212831324

-9.1510162328-5.3893276409

1.6011589435-2.6961270341

-16.2463972942-6.7733692509

26.2743409621-7.6526000093

-38.7428928514-2.5378144802

5.4843130987-7.2529612946

5.9958011295-4.3258954282

8.2674184756-3.4469669911

-6.54817861321.4557961629

2.0438174201-5.1087077522

0.60835514133.0486343021

12.38168934232.0734427107

7.71844298923.3506203532

7.42768779283.240825256

4.29801419626.0359985372

5.55409443066.4868378924

3.41835928947.4759857502

8.32629880535.6833197396

6.40361444295.8048909029

11.52326289325.6000762329

9.07211258427.0451259723

4.74753478837.748729603

5.59931892188.0145647028

7.49999422497.4691687261

5.00224154967.6884446825

5.56.3842404138

5.35.6698178969

4.95.7803109393

55.6404471549

20045.1404483099

GDP growth


%

Fig. 5 Growth and TFP trend

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

5.46105932260.5145638249

7.39873885352.0616548601

9.80831972594.0957080969

3.5109794081-2.2825612074

4.3246221212-1.3766312866

5.75429498860.2912670819

0.4950859515-4.7306299949

2.1299996333-2.3704988886

0.4421053114-3.4001750314

-0.9212831324-4.0265433014

-5.3893276409-7.9376828351

-2.6961270341-4.7748184441

-6.7733692509-8.8530617157

-7.6526000093-9.7172621778

-2.5378144802-4.4907592553

-7.2529612946-9.2021085195

-4.3258954282-6.1855231824

-3.4469669911-5.0891964596

1.45579616290.0901432214

-5.1087077522-6.32699398

3.04863430211.9734336644

2.07344271070.8273105236

3.35062035321.6105244563

3.2408252560.8962846422

6.03599853723.0774353867

6.48683789242.801268773

7.47598575023.9721094779

5.68331973962.6306113933

5.80489090293.248793112

5.60007623293.5984663232

7.04512597235.710105899

7.7487296036.337424069

8.01456470286.4847170168

7.46916872615.8224668334

7.68844468255.9239177267

6.38424041384.4976535193


TFP growth

%

5-year moving average of GDP Growth and Total Factor Productivity(1960-2000)

Fig. 9 Growth in factors

19601960

19611961

19621962

19631963

19641964

6.33903903994.0181331363

6.7690077314.3824681685

7.40190956554.5864130047

7.6360375234.565209344

7.53157286144.4810404387

7.15760799294.3333078492

7.14963990613.9430999732

6.03049262583.4805024527

4.95118912273.1030078228

3.70965450712.7023306103

2.74224776022.4190934835

1.55013229242.4310641551

1.26772070492.6210069714

0.93469434562.8179740504

0.41192790122.9802893576

0.26855191193.0695441003

0.27820354882.9139105576

0.10546081442.6667419047

-0.25082585442.443305472

-0.33809113162.2558711342

-0.45957005032.0983810965

-0.69162605842.5379710174

-0.3911063823.1608974162

0.09940143183.8413000684

0.35621273334.6934634286

0.70849073725.6702880408

0.53125566525.4856233438

0.00889080495.0819200407

-0.47204645784.5748606232

-0.86929682033.9155477296

-1.3051022313.0951016094

-0.93514681672.9756071011

-0.53032491622.9032960875

-0.13952853362.8375221769

0.24385603412.7783075702

0.6279636912.7256690301

Source: Worl Bank

Physical Cap Stock Growth

Human Capital Growth

%

5-year average for growth of factors of production in Uganda(1960-2000)

TFP chart

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

0.5145638249

2.0616548601

4.0957080969

-2.2825612074

-1.3766312866

0.2912670819

-4.7306299949

-2.3704988886

-3.4001750314

-4.0265433014

-7.9376828351

-4.7748184441

-8.8530617157

-9.7172621778

-4.4907592553

-9.2021085195

-6.1855231824

-5.0891964596

0.0901432214

-6.32699398

1.9734336644

0.8273105236

1.6105244563

0.8962846422

3.0774353867

2.801268773

3.9721094779

2.6306113933

3.248793112

3.5984663232

5.710105899

6.337424069

6.4847170168

5.8224668334

5.9239177267

4.4976535193

TFP growth

%

5-year average of TFP growth

data

From Worl Bank data base (PREM Total produtcivity Toolkit)

196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Total physical cap. stock (cons.1987 local pr.) 1/3.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+114.E+114.E+114.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+115.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+116.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+116.E+11Total physical cap. stock (cons.1987 local pr.) 1/Gross capital formation (cons. 1987 prices)GDP at market prices (cons.1987 local pr.)Average Years of SchoolingTotal labor forceHuman Capital

Gross capital formation (cons. 1987 prices)............................................9.E+099.E+099.E+099.E+099.E+091.E+101.E+101.E+101.E+101.E+101.E+101.E+102.E+102.E+102.E+102.E+103.E+103.E+103.E+101960253,670,391,808.00..240,252,993,536.001.153,563,166.003,997,421.2926.25930159120

GDP at market prices (cons.1987 local pr.)2.E+112.E+112.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+114.E+113.E+114.E+114.E+113.E+114.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+112.E+113.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+112.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+113.E+114.E+114.E+114.E+115.E+115.E+115.E+111961264,751,005,696.00..225,815,298,048.001.163,668,256.004,118,567.6326.302055620100.04275402890

Average Years of Schooling1.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+001.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+002.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+003.E+004.E+001962276,524,007,424.00..229,800,706,048.001.173,798,679.004,268,391.1726.345563480300.04350786020

Total labor force4.E+064.E+064.E+064.E+064.E+064.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+069.E+069.E+069.E+069.E+061.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071963293,591,515,136.00..294,319,390,720.001.173,959,370.004,452,512.2726.405455233900.05989175360

Human Capital4.E+064.E+064.E+064.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+065.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+066.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+067.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+068.E+069.E+069.E+069.E+061.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+071.E+072.E+071964320,633,798,656.00..304,470,884,352.001.184,135,794.004,654,657.5926.493565494700.08811026080

1965344,672,501,760.00..304,546,086,912.001.194,321,239.004,867,313.6226.565860532900.07229503820

1966367,138,111,488.00..315,750,416,384.001.244,510,006.005,103,489.6726.629003939800.06314340690

GDP growth-6.011.7628.083.450.023.6813.81-3.417.527.17-22.6221.99-11.850.70-15.17-9.151.60-16.2526.27-38.745.486.008.27-6.552.040.6112.387.727.434.305.553.428.336.4011.529.074.755.607.505.005.505.304.905.005.43-1.730.466.642.691967395,082,203,136.00..359,364,395,008.001.284,697,429.005,341,183.8126.702359689400.07335574960

Cap Stock Growth4.374.456.179.217.506.527.617.348.695.636.482.021.952.480.790.520.600.28-0.130.070.57-0.26-1.50-0.57-0.53-0.591.240.950.711.23-1.48-1.37-1.45-1.27-0.950.370.650.500.650.976.872.060.01-0.312.011968424,092,303,360.00..347,107,295,232.001.334,870,698.005,565,918.2026.773216965100.07085727570

Human Capital Growth3.033.644.314.544.574.854.664.214.123.832.902.342.322.122.412.963.293.302.932.862.182.062.191.992.074.385.175.596.256.963.463.153.052.952.852.862.792.732.662.594.212.843.473.353.431969460,939,689,984.00..373,200,584,704.001.395,045,095.005,795,188.6126.856533047100.0833160820

TFP growth-9.57-2.2023.02-2.96-5.72-1.847.97-8.871.572.62-26.9519.77-14.02-1.56-16.93-11.13-0.62-18.3424.57-40.493.954.867.55-7.511.01-1.788.783.983.39-0.374.072.077.075.1410.197.212.813.765.653.060.16-4.26-1.624.76-0.171970486,878,707,712.00..399,970,500,608.001.445,210,172.006,017,144.8526.911280868900.05474782180

1971518,419,283,968.00..309,509,095,424.001.445,363,489.006,191,717.1526.974050180300.06276931140

5-yr m.a of GDP growth5.467.409.813.514.325.750.502.130.44-0.92-5.39-2.70-6.77-7.65-2.54-7.25-4.33-3.451.46-5.113.052.073.353.246.046.497.485.685.805.607.057.758.017.477.696.385.675.785.645.146.10-1.71-0.096.902.442.336.901972528,868,507,648.00..377,562,005,504.001.435,491,438.006,336,881.6526.994005670100.01995548980

Physical Cap Stock Growth6.346.777.407.647.537.167.156.034.953.712.741.551.270.930.410.270.280.11-0.25-0.34-0.46-0.69-0.390.100.360.710.530.01-0.47-0.87-1.31-0.94-0.53-0.140.240.630.690.710.810.977.143.59-0.10-0.281.901.941973539,161,788,416.00..332,819,988,480.001.435,621,093.006,483,903.8427.013281526900.01927585670

Human Capital Growth4.024.384.594.574.484.333.943.483.102.702.422.432.622.822.983.072.912.672.442.262.102.543.163.844.695.675.495.084.573.923.102.982.902.842.782.732.692.662.622.594.413.082.973.933.463.481974552,537,620,480.00..335,151,104,000.001.425,742,314.006,621,090.1427.037787359400.02450583250

TFP growth0.512.064.10-2.28-1.380.29-4.73-2.37-3.40-4.03-7.94-4.77-8.85-9.72-4.49-9.20-6.19-5.090.09-6.331.970.831.610.903.082.803.972.633.253.605.716.346.485.825.924.503.824.164.353.060.60-5.00-1.834.65-0.40-0.541975556,904,808,448.00..284,318,203,904.001.425,883,263.006,780,911.5527.045660161800.00787280240

1976559,787,016,192.00..258,300,198,912.001.486,020,874.006,981,701.2327.050822220100.00516205830

110.1%-4.0%77.9%83.2%1977563,165,528,064.00..262,435,995,648.001.546,180,040.007,211,693.0627.056839432600.00601721250

1987-921993-971998-2004-3194.2%57.0%141.9%149.6%1978564,748,877,824.00..219,799,601,152.001.616,342,362.007,450,035.0927.059647005300.00280757260

1972.5%67.4%-16.3%-23.1%1979563,997,900,800.00..277,550,497,792.001.686,483,335.007,668,125.5127.05831636650-0.00133063880

6.808.015.541980564,412,481,536.00..170,019,405,824.001.756,621,168.007,887,441.3327.059051171400.00073480490

1981567,605,919,744.00..179,343,802,368.001.786,748,635.008,059,618.9527.064693211600.00564204020

8.311982566,129,131,520.009,120,964,696.83190,096,900,096.001.806,869,920.008,225,515.3927.062088036722.9338414136-0.00260517490

1983557,635,600,384.008,848,034,405.23205,813,006,336.001.837,001,992.008,405,469.6427.046971540122.9034611702-0.0151164966-0.0303802434

1984554,460,971,008.008,841,015,264.96192,336,003,072.001.857,122,539.008,572,755.5227.041262255322.902667556-0.0057092848-0.0007936142

1985551,500,775,424.008,619,463,447.81196,266,999,808.001.887,250,742.008,750,438.4627.035909081722.8772886747-0.0053531737-0.0253788813

1986548,222,205,952.008,832,771,856.03197,461,000,192.002.107,403,643.009,133,784.9627.02994652722.9017347158-0.00596255460.0244460411

1987555,033,427,968.0012,089,000,000.00221,910,007,808.002.357,597,538.009,606,275.4627.042294179523.21556178520.01234765240.3138270694

1988560,318,775,296.0014,900,696,196.25239,038,005,248.002.627,804,912.0010,143,244.1327.051771700323.42467377340.00947752090.2091119882

1989564,323,680,256.0014,180,540,565.90256,793,001,984.002.938,042,262.0010,777,300.3027.05889382523.3751364790.0071221247-0.0495372943

1990571,250,769,920.0014,391,767,717.41267,830,001,664.003.278,311,970.0011,527,052.2727.071094126923.38992219380.01220030190.0147857147

1991562,792,506,840.6114,804,795,151.81282,705,532,869.913.298,582,386.0011,925,607.0127.05617684823.418216962-0.01491727890.0282947682

1992555,085,601,718.7914,141,200,733.20292,369,423,714.503.318,835,534.0012,301,798.0527.042388176123.3723584113-0.0137886719-0.0458585507

1993547,023,378,383.2514,925,548,849.90316,712,975,548.183.339,087,221.0012,677,553.1127.027757377723.4263402694-0.01463079840.0539818581

1994540,067,992,097.8116,463,842,411.74336,994,053,392.883.359,336,894.0013,052,105.7227.014960879923.5244324443-0.01279649790.0980921749

1995534,929,114,825.6423,371,696,665.47375,826,764,099.693.379,584,000.0013,424,683.1927.005400079423.874791583-0.00956080050.3503591387

1996536,903,646,898.0924,991,281,665.85409,922,191,260.383.409,830,993.0013,808,640.8627.009084486923.94179286760.00368440740.0670012846

1997540,418,782,688.0124,327,238,348.74429,383,389,895.383.4310,077,540.0014,194,306.0127.015610199423.91486247920.0065257126-0.0269303884

1998543,129,269,729.2325,230,666,996.36453,425,935,292.913.4510,323,270.0014,581,186.4527.020613194323.95132603590.00500299490.0364635567

1999546,634,765,936.4227,162,358,885.21487,432,854,254.023.4810,567,830.0014,968,810.0827.027046712424.02509798730.00643351810.0737719514

2000551,931,734,184.1727,131,711,359.94511,815,423,015.913.5110,810,870.0015,356,703.8227.036690205624.02396904160.0096434932-0.0011289457

data

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notes

00

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00

CB &H Chart1

0.00

CB &Heffler

1.174.17

-0.673.67

-1.472.9

-6.321.16

0.132.25

-0.035.94

2.297.7

C&B(1996) residues

Hoffler(1999 residues)

%

TFP measurement(Residuals) from the C&B growth Decomposition and Hoeffler Output per worker decompoistion(1966-1997)

Fig. 12 Education

C&B(1996) residuesHoffler(1999 residues)

1960-641.174.17

1965-69-0.673.67

1970-74-1.472.9

1975-79-6.321.16

1980-840.132.25

1985-89-0.035.94

1990-972.297.7

Sheet5

School enrolment

15-1930-39

gradeUga 1995Uga 2000Ghana(1998)Uga 1995Uga 2000Ghana(1998)

10.8470.9320.8770.6830.7760.726

20.8240.9150.8680.6620.7430.719

30.7560.8710.850.6140.6790.693

40.6490.7880.8230.5390.6040.67

50.5220.6830.7860.4610.5310.653

60.3820.540.730.3960.4430.616

70.2440.3650.6530.3120.3320.579

80.1270.240.530.1710.2050.54

90.0850.1630.4050.1530.1820.503

Education attainement for 2 age groups: Proportion of age group who have completed grade

Source: World Bank Research Project on Education Attainment and Enrolment around the World (www.worldbank/research/projects/edattain.htm)

Sheet5

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Uga 1995

Uga 2000

grade

%

15-19 years

Sheet6

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Uga 1995

Uga 2000

grade

%

30-39 years

Investment as share of GDP87-9293-9798-04

1986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/98

fixed9.710.811.112.715.215.915.214.615.416.615.515.512.5715.46

public4.35.65.46.27.47.46.75.45.46.35.65.66.055.88

private5.45.25.76.57.88.58.59.11010.39.99.96.529.56

machinery3.84.54.45.26.165.34.75.65.43.73.45.004.94

construction5.96.36.77.599.99.99.99.811.211.8127.5510.52

Education.Levels are rising

The World Bank Page*Public Expenditure FY 2007The World Bank

But: Returns To Education Rising Mostly For the Skilled Quality Ed matters more than access

The World Bank Page*The World BankSkills Gaps are emerging?

Is It High Cost Finance? Ugandas Firms Complain That It Is (ICA)No access to ext. commercial borrowing, but gaining a Moodys credit rating post MDRI, and heavily aided.- no external finance crunch likely for years

If the syndrome of bad domestic finance from a lack of savings was constraining private investment, we would expect- high interest lending rates (& on savings too)- possibly due to interest rate crowding out- a high lending to deposit ratio: with banks making use of savings with innovative lending.

If weak intermediation was the problem, we might expect to see banks with high costs and interest spreads, not making imaginative use of savings and firms not expecting much from banks.


We looked at the financial sector for symptomsmacro analysis

The World Bank Page*The World BankPrivate credit though expanding - is a very low share of GDP, Gvt borrows heavily (for sterilization) and interest rates are high => So, you might think, Uganda must be an over-borrowing state But TBill rate is uncorrelated with lending rates and levels => its not crowding out - lending rates stay in a high band even when TB rates fall, domestic PSBR is - in fact - negative due to aid.There is also a low loan to deposit ratio=> So its not low savings, although savings are lowThere are very high interest rate spreads (deposit rates are low)Banks hold a lot of Treasury Bills in their asset portfoliosAnd excess cash assets seem to go offshore, not to Ug borrowers

When theyre not buying Treasury Bills, banks are lending to foreign banks

The World Bank Page*

The World Bank

So we looked more closely at complaining firms and farms for symptoms


The World BankHigh Costs Of Finance Was The Most Common Complaint In the ICA 2002/03 so this led us to look more closely at firms borrowingVery few firms borrow to invest only 14% of Inv is bank financedthey mostly use internal fundsCredit constrained firms invest at same rates as bank borrowers?

Only 2% of rural credit comes from banks even many traders manage without bank lending

So are Ugandan Firms Credit Constrained in their investments?

Dont Take Qualitative Survey Replies At Face Value ICA, CODB

The World Bank Page*Public Expenditure FY 2007The World Bank

Is a response valid if firm didnt apply because they didnt need credit?


Banks Are Not Taking Risks With Small & Medium Enterprises?


Macro Stock-Take From Growth Accounting Physical Capital Has Lagged Human CapitalThe World Bank(Kasekende et al 2004)

De-compose TFP?Macro indicators of a + ve growth picture

The World Bank Page*The World Bank Growth even though Terms of trade were against Uganda Changes in Ugandas export mix have occurred Labor movements across sectors Changing composition of imports too Efficiency indicators for formal sector firms Gradual (but slow) net migration to the citiesMacro indicators showing healthy signs:

Dont Need a Fundamental ChangeGrowth Through Declining Terms of Trade


Growth Continued - Despite Terms of Trade Slow down no cause for re-direction (and new stats)


chart

0.08138202750.0578171888

0.06860759020.0552091561

0.07029359710.0548046007

1989/90-1998/99

1999/2000-2004/05

%

Fig. 3 GDP, GDE, GDY and TOT

0.03988871130.03467490190.031311351671.4322782960.125040176

0.07941858680.07950559350.017333878557.55606937220.1245633642

0.06305114220.07269525210.123002604479.71624259840.1391671696

0.10892449970.11344159360.1146696142147.69183711080.1139392383

0.09765607540.11991352010.096262457118.64367880650.0997200063

0.04859804080.0519950040.0570964876127.81980407040.0534810243

0.04736320810.11089052360.0468444313120.4110234230.063082514

0.08168768420.09200636150.0758279519127.02430042180.0569535695

0.05442214180.05377764250.04816917071000.0904493919

0.04955951670.05490858230.050801753279.5809818430.0867522466

0.06405855840.06417058550.065107046365.23483012710.0999610696

0.04707635170.05917602260.045644786870.98541098740.0992861144

0.05853310440.0590170660.061600597876.28731978680.148217718

0.05760526370.0558532340.057504249279.32021319540.0992062063

TOT(1999/00=100)(right scale)

Transfers as share of GDP(leftscale)

GDP at Market Prices

GDE

GDY

TOT index

Net Transfers/GDP

chnage (%)

Fig. 2 TOT adjusted GDP

0.06180972770.0620785005

0.06860759020.0552091561

1989/90-1998/99

1999/2000-2004/05

Chart2

0.0649028669

0.0613483863

0.0581395669

0.0398887113

0.0794185868

0.0630511422

0.1089244997

0.0976560754

0.0485980408

0.0473632081

0.0816876842

0.0544221418

0.0495595167

0.0640585584

0.0470763517

0.0585331044

0.0576052637

rate calculations

Growth rates

ITEM1981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/051989/90-1998/991999/2000-2004/051990/91-1999/20002000/01-2004/05

GDP @ FACTOR COST6.1%0.7%-2.6%1.0%3.8%7.3%6.2%5.5%5.5%3.7%8.0%5.4%10.0%8.4%4.8%4.4%7.8%5.8%5.1%6.4%4.5%5.6%5.7%6.3%5.5%6.4%5.4%

INDIRECT TAXES20.2%10.8%-10.0%-8.3%8.6%23.3%13.2%20.4%12.0%8.8%7.5%21.7%23.5%28.3%5.1%8.3%12.6%2.2%3.6%6.2%6.8%9.0%6.7%14.8%5.8%13.0%6.5%

GDP AT MARKET PRICES6.5%1.1%-2.9%0.6%3.9%7.9%6.5%6.1%5.8%4.0%7.9%6.3%10.9%9.8%4.9%4.7%8.2%5.4%5.0%6.4%4.7%5.9%5.8%6.9%5.5%6.8%5.5%

EXPENDITURE ITEM

Total Consumption9.3%1.6%-3.1%-0.2%4.9%6.2%4.5%7.1%4.4%3.2%7.1%5.5%16.7%9.7%-0.4%12.6%7.0%5.5%6.7%6.5%4.4%3.8%3.9%7.3%5.1%7.1%5.1%

Private Consumption7.5%0.8%-3.3%0.5%2.7%8.5%6.7%5.4%4.8%2.6%7.1%5.0%18.0%9.9%-0.6%12.9%7.4%5.3%7.8%6.6%4.4%3.4%3.3%7.3%5.1%7.2%5.1%

Government Consumption21.2%6.3%-1.8%-4.0%17.6%-5.3%-7.7%17.8%2.2%6.3%7.1%8.3%9.2%8.4%1.0%10.7%4.8%6.8%-0.0%5.9%4.4%6.1%7.5%7.6%5.1%6.5%4.8%

4.3%-4.3%0.7%-1.2%33.3%24.1%-2.6%4.9%4.8%-4.6%6.1%12.2%38.9%18.8%1.3%-5.4%14.8%0.5%-6.2%10.3%10.4%14.0%11.5%9.2%6.8%

Fixed Capital Formation4.3%-4.3%0.7%-1.2%33.3%24.1%-2.6%4.9%4.8%-4.0%6.4%12.4%42.8%7.4%-2.0%0.5%16.7%-0.1%-7.4%11.2%10.6%14.4%10.9%9.0%6.6%8.5%7.9%

of which - Private4.2%-4.3%12.9%-0.2%5.9%12.3%4.2%12.0%12.2%3.5%9.8%20.0%46.5%10.8%1.3%-5.7%16.9%1.3%-5.2%15.9%17.2%14.7%12.3%12.7%9.4%11.7%11.0%

- Public4.5%-4.3%-15.4%-2.9%82.9%36.4%-8.6%-2.1%-3.6%-13.9%1.1%-0.6%35.1%-0.0%-10.1%17.8%16.3%-3.2%-12.5%-0.8%-9.3%13.3%5.4%4.0%-1.2%3.9%-0.8%

Construction3.0%-4.1%-5.5%-7.1%32.6%25.3%-0.2%5.0%6.9%1.1%10.5%12.6%26.4%13.7%7.3%7.8%12.7%4.4%-9.8%13.3%11.8%13.6%12.1%10.4%7.6%10.3%8.2%

of which - Private3.0%-4.1%1.3%1.7%2.8%6.5%3.9%4.9%14.0%13.4%14.2%18.5%25.3%23.4%13.6%1.7%17.7%8.1%-9.0%18.7%18.2%16.7%13.9%14.7%11.1%15.0%11.7%

- Public3.0%-4.1%-15.5%-22.8%103.1%47.7%-3.8%5.0%0.3%-11.9%5.4%3.9%28.3%-2.4%-5.8%23.0%2.3%-4.5%-12.0%-1.6%-9.8%0.1%3.0%4.8%-4.1%3.9%-4.1%

Machinery and Equipment7.1%-4.6%13.1%8.8%34.2%22.4%-6.2%4.8%1.5%-12.3%-1.3%12.0%77.5%-2.0%-18.2%-16.3%28.6%-11.6%0.2%5.2%7.1%16.8%7.3%7.4%4.2%5.8%7.3%

of which - Private7.1%-4.6%40.7%-3.3%11.5%22.0%4.7%22.2%10.1%-9.1%2.7%22.6%83.0%-4.1%-17.3%-21.0%14.6%-17.4%8.7%7.3%14.0%7.7%6.4%10.4%4.5%6.4%8.8%

- Public7.1%-4.6%-15.4%29.6%63.1%22.6%-15.6%-14.0%-11.5%-18.4%-9.8%-13.7%58.7%6.6%-21.4%1.7%69.2%-0.2%-13.8%1.0%-8.2%41.5%9.1%4.7%4.9%6.1%5.9%

Net Change in Stocks65.6%38.1%373.8%-273.8%53.7%-65.8%-43.2%38.8%45.8%-14.3%4.1%-0.5%37.3%21.2%18.5%23.4%14.5%

Plus Exports10.4%0.3%-3.4%1.6%-1.7%3.7%5.9%5.0%-5.8%15.6%-4.8%31.7%23.2%40.5%30.3%-35.3%26.2%-7.3%14.4%12.2%5.4%13.9%4.6%12.7%7.2%11.4%10.1%

of which - Goods10.2%0.9%-2.8%1.0%-3.7%2.6%6.4%5.0%-8.4%16.8%-8.3%33.4%30.2%33.3%35.0%-43.8%32.2%-12.8%16.1%16.0%0.4%8.6%6.6%12.6%5.8%10.8%9.5%

- Services11.6%-3.3%-7.4%5.9%11.8%9.8%3.3%5.1%8.7%9.9%12.6%24.9%-7.0%82.8%9.9%10.0%9.6%10.7%10.1%1.9%20.8%27.5%0.2%16.7%11.9%17.2%12.1%

Less Imports8.2%0.7%-0.7%2.5%15.8%10.4%-1.1%0.1%-3.4%0.9%-2.4%12.3%61.6%18.9%-3.4%-22.1%11.9%-5.0%6.1%13.3%2.0%7.1%2.3%7.4%4.3%6.9%6.2%

of which - Goods, fob5.2%0.3%0.4%3.9%19.4%11.7%-3.2%-2.4%-5.7%-3.5%-4.2%10.9%54.1%10.4%-2.1%8.2%12.4%-6.1%6.9%10.3%6.5%9.7%3.4%7.8%5.1%7.5%7.4%

- Services13.2%1.3%-2.3%0.3%9.9%8.3%2.8%4.4%0.1%7.4%-0.1%14.1%71.0%28.4%-4.8%-52.4%10.7%-2.7%4.3%20.0%-7.5%1.1%-0.7%7.9%2.4%7.2%3.4%

Domestic absorption8.8%0.9%-2.7%-0.3%7.9%8.6%3.5%6.8%4.5%2.1%7.0%6.4%19.7%11.1%-0.1%9.5%8.2%4.7%4.8%7.0%5.2%5.3%5.1%7.5%5.4%7.3%5.5%

External absorption6.7%1.0%1.4%3.1%28.4%14.2%-4.6%-2.7%-2.0%-7.7%-0.8%-1.2%97.3%6.4%-29.2%-3.6%-1.6%-2.3%-3.4%14.7%-2.5%-2.5%-1.6%5.5%0.4%5.5%0.9%

GDE9.1%0.9%-3.3%-0.8%4.9%7.6%5.0%8.4%5.5%3.5%8.0%7.3%11.3%12.0%5.2%11.1%9.2%5.4%5.5%6.4%5.9%5.9%5.6%8.1%5.8%7.8%5.9%

Statistical Discrepancy (B)-13.3%2.5%0.2%14.0%-4.2%10.5%19.6%-10.9%8.8%8.7%7.9%-1.9%6.7%-12.0%0.6%-77.9%-59.2%16.7%-79.3%-2.6%-1057.1%10.6%-10.5%-12.9%-187.0%-10.2%-227.8%

GDP at Market Prices6.5%1.1%-2.9%0.6%3.9%7.9%6.5%6.1%5.8%4.0%7.9%6.3%10.9%9.8%4.9%4.7%8.2%5.4%5.0%6.4%4.7%5.9%5.8%6.9%5.5%6.8%5.5%

TOT index82.6070.4057.1680.60147.66118.99126.69118.39126.46100.0079.4766.7470.3075.1671.59

TOT index(Revised)98.5484.1371.4357.5679.72147.69118.64127.82120.41127.02100.0079.5865.2370.9976.2979.32

TOT-14.8%-18.8%41.0%83.2%-19.4%6.5%-6.6%6.8%-20.9%-20.5%-16.0%5.3%6.9%-4.8%

GDY3.1%1.7%12.3%11.5%9.6%5.7%4.7%7.6%4.8%5.1%6.5%4.6%6.2%5.8%7.0%5.5%6.8%5.6%

Net Transfers/GDP18.8%12.5%12.5%13.9%11.4%10.0%5.3%6.3%5.7%9.0%8.7%10.0%9.9%14.8%9.9%

-30.9%7.5%18.8%-9.2%-3.9%-43.8%23.5%-2.3%67.5%0.7%22.6%4.0%58.0%-29.2%-5.0%20.6%3.0%11.2%

Sectoral Contribution

ITEM1981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/05

GDP @ FACTOR COST5.9%0.7%-2.5%1.0%3.6%7.0%5.9%5.2%5.2%3.5%7.5%5.1%9.4%7.8%4.4%4.1%7.1%5.2%4.6%5.9%4.1%5.1%5.2%5.9%5.0%5.9%5.0%

0.0%0.0%

INDIRECT TAXES0.7%0.4%-0.4%-0.3%0.3%0.8%0.5%0.9%0.6%0.5%0.4%1.2%1.5%2.0%0.4%0.7%1.1%0.2%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.6%0.9%0.5%0.9%0.6%

GDP AT MARKET PRICES6.5%1.1%-2.9%0.6%3.9%7.9%6.5%6.1%5.8%4.0%7.9%6.3%10.9%9.8%4.9%4.7%8.2%5.4%5.0%6.4%4.7%5.9%5.8%6.9%5.5%6.8%5.5%

000(0)(0)0000000000000000(0)0

Contribution to GDP in percentage shares

EXPENDITURE ITEM

Total Consumption8.3%1.5%-2.9%-0.2%4.5%5.7%4.1%6.3%4.0%2.8%6.2%4.8%14.5%8.8%-0.4%10.9%6.5%5.0%6.2%6.1%4.1%3.5%3.6%6.4%4.7%6.3%4.7%5.8%

Private Consumption5.8%0.6%-2.6%0.4%2.1%6.5%5.2%4.2%3.7%2.0%5.3%3.7%13.3%7.7%-0.5%9.5%5.9%4.2%6.2%5.4%3.6%2.8%2.7%5.5%4.1%5.5%4.1%5.0%80.0%74.8%78.3%

Government Consumption2.5%0.8%-0.3%-0.6%2.4%-0.8%-1.0%2.1%0.3%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.2%1.1%0.1%1.3%0.6%0.8%-0.0%0.7%0.5%0.7%0.9%0.9%0.6%0.8%0.6%0.8%13.8%11.2%13.0%

0.5%-0.5%0.1%-0.1%3.6%3.4%-0.4%0.7%0.7%-0.7%0.8%1.6%5.3%3.2%0.2%-1.0%2.4%0.1%-1.0%1.5%1.6%2.2%2.0%1.3%1.1%1.3%1.3%1.2%

Fixed Capital Formation0.5%-0.5%0.1%-0.1%3.6%3.4%-0.4%0.7%0.7%-0.6%0.9%1.6%5.9%1.3%-0.3%0.1%2.6%-0.0%-1.2%1.6%1.6%2.2%1.8%1.3%1.0%1.2%1.2%1.2%

of which - Private0.3%-0.3%0.8%-0.0%0.4%0.9%0.3%0.9%0.9%0.3%0.8%1.7%4.3%1.3%0.2%-0.7%1.8%0.1%-0.6%1.6%1.9%1.8%1.6%1.2%1.1%1.1%1.3%1.1%16.8%19.8%17.8%

- Public0.2%-0.2%-0.7%-0.1%3.2%2.5%-0.7%-0.2%-0.2%-0.9%0.1%-0.0%1.6%-0.0%-0.5%0.8%0.8%-0.2%-0.6%-0.0%-0.3%0.4%0.2%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%2.0%-1.6%0.9%

Construction0.2%-0.3%-0.4%-0.5%2.1%2.1%-0.0%0.4%0.6%0.1%0.9%1.1%2.5%1.5%0.8%0.9%1.5%0.5%-1.2%1.4%1.3%1.6%1.5%1.0%0.9%1.0%0.9%1.0%

of which - Private0.1%-0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.6%0.6%0.7%1.0%1.5%1.6%1.0%0.1%1.4%0.7%-0.8%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.5%0.9%1.0%0.9%1.0%0.9%

- Public0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-0.6%2.0%1.8%-0.2%0.2%0.0%-0.5%0.2%0.1%1.0%-0.1%-0.2%0.7%0.1%-0.2%-0.4%-0.0%-0.2%0.0%0.1%0.2%-0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%

Machinery and Equipment0.3%-0.2%0.5%0.4%1.5%1.3%-0.4%0.3%0.1%-0.7%-0.1%0.5%3.4%-0.1%-1.2%-0.8%1.1%-0.5%0.0%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.3%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%

of which - Private0.1%-0.1%0.7%-0.1%0.3%0.6%0.1%0.7%0.3%-0.3%0.1%0.7%2.8%-0.2%-0.9%-0.8%0.4%-0.5%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%

- Public0.1%-0.1%-0.3%0.5%1.2%0.7%-0.5%-0.4%-0.3%-0.3%-0.1%-0.2%0.6%0.1%-0.3%0.0%0.7%-0.0%-0.2%0.0%-0.1%0.4%0.1%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%

Net Change in Stocks0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.6%1.9%0.6%-1.1%-0.2%0.1%0.2%-0.1%0.0%-0.0%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.6%1.1%0.7%

Plus Exports0.9%0.0%-0.3%0.2%-0.2%0.3%0.5%0.4%-0.5%1.2%-0.4%2.3%2.1%4.1%3.9%-5.7%2.6%-0.8%1.5%1.4%0.6%1.6%0.6%1.0%0.8%0.9%1.1%0.9%14.7%14.5%14.6%

of which - Goods0.8%0.1%-0.2%0.1%-0.3%0.2%0.5%0.4%-0.6%1.0%-0.6%2.0%2.2%2.9%3.7%-5.9%2.3%-1.1%1.2%1.3%0.0%0.7%0.6%0.7%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.6%

- Services0.1%-0.0%-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.4%-0.1%1.2%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.1%0.6%0.9%0.0%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.3%

Less Imports1.7%0.2%-0.1%0.5%3.5%2.6%-0.3%0.0%-0.8%0.2%-0.5%2.2%11.6%5.2%-1.0%-6.1%2.4%-1.1%1.2%2.6%0.4%1.4%0.5%1.3%0.8%1.2%1.2%1.1%19.4%14.9%17.9%

of which - Goods, fob0.7%0.0%0.0%0.5%2.7%1.8%-0.5%-0.4%-0.8%-0.4%-0.5%1.1%5.7%1.5%-0.3%1.1%1.8%-0.9%0.9%1.4%0.9%1.4%0.5%0.9%0.7%0.8%1.0%0.8%

- Services1.1%0.1%-0.2%0.0%0.8%0.7%0.3%0.4%0.0%0.6%-0.0%1.1%5.9%3.7%-0.7%-7.2%0.7%-0.2%0.3%1.2%-0.5%0.1%-0.0%0.4%0.1%0.4%0.2%0.3%

Domestic absorption0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

External absorption0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Total Expenditure on GDP (A)8.0%0.8%-3.0%-0.7%4.4%6.8%4.5%7.4%5.0%3.1%7.1%6.5%10.2%10.9%4.8%10.3%9.1%5.3%5.5%6.4%5.9%6.0%5.6%7.4%5.8%7.2%5.9%6.8%108.5%104.9%107.3%

Statistical Discrepancy (B)-1.5%0.2%0.0%1.3%-0.5%1.1%2.0%-1.3%0.9%0.9%0.8%-0.2%0.6%-1.1%0.0%-5.6%-0.9%0.1%-0.5%-0.0%-1.2%-0.1%0.1%-8.5%-0.6%-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%-0.5%-8.5%-4.9%-7.3%

GDP at Market Prices (A+B)6.5%1.1%-2.9%0.6%3.9%7.9%6.5%6.1%5.8%4.0%7.9%6.3%10.9%9.8%4.9%4.7%8.2%5.4%5.0%6.4%4.7%5.9%5.8%100.0%6.9%5.5%6.8%5.5%6.4%100.0%100.0%100.0%

Sectoral shares(based on nomial GDP)

ITEM1981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/05

GDP @ FACTOR COST96.3%95.9%96.2%96.5%96.4%95.9%95.6%95.0%94.7%94.5%94.5%93.7%93.0%91.8%91.8%91.5%91.1%91.4%91.5%91.5%91.4%91.1%91.0%93.1%91.3%92.8%91.3%

INDIRECT TAXES3.7%4.1%3.8%3.5%3.6%4.1%4.4%5.0%5.3%5.5%5.5%6.3%7.0%8.2%8.2%8.5%8.9%8.6%8.5%8.5%8.6%8.9%9.0%6.9%8.7%7.2%8.7%

GDP AT MARKET PRICES100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

EXPENDITURE ITEM

onsumption95.3%87.0%86.5%94.1%101.0%100.4%99.7%99.9%99.6%99.9%99.0%95.4%96.8%91.4%91.0%94.2%92.3%93.0%95.1%95.2%93.7%91.3%90.6%96.0%93.2%95.3%93.2%94.6%

Private Consumption83.9%74.6%70.3%83.2%91.2%90.4%91.1%90.7%88.9%88.1%87.0%82.8%84.5%79.4%77.6%81.2%78.8%79.1%81.6%80.0%78.9%76.8%76.4%83.9%78.8%82.7%78.7%81.4%

Government Consumption11.5%12.4%16.2%10.9%9.8%10.0%8.6%9.2%10.7%11.8%12.0%12.6%12.3%12.0%13.4%13.1%13.4%13.9%13.5%15.2%14.8%14.5%14.3%12.1%14.4%12.5%14.5%13.2%

11.3%13.9%14.7%8.4%9.6%10.7%11.3%13.1%15.8%16.7%16.1%15.7%13.3%20.2%18.0%16.4%19.5%19.5%18.2%19.2%20.5%22.6%22.8%16.5%20.5%17.1%20.7%18.3%

Fixed Capital Formation11.3%13.9%14.7%8.4%9.6%10.7%11.3%13.1%15.8%16.8%16.3%16.0%17.7%17.0%16.7%15.9%19.2%19.2%17.8%18.8%20.1%22.2%22.4%16.4%20.1%17.0%20.3%18.1%

of which - Private8.0%9.6%10.2%6.0%6.1%6.0%6.6%7.6%9.2%10.1%10.0%10.8%12.5%12.4%12.5%11.0%13.0%13.0%12.3%13.6%15.4%17.0%17.4%10.9%14.8%11.5%15.1%12.7%

- Public3.3%4.3%4.5%2.5%3.5%4.6%4.7%5.4%6.6%6.7%6.3%5.2%5.2%4.6%4.2%4.9%6.2%6.2%5.5%5.2%4.7%5.2%5.0%5.5%5.3%5.6%5.1%5.4%

Construction8.7%11.3%11.7%5.3%6.2%6.7%7.2%8.0%9.6%10.5%10.6%10.6%10.9%11.2%11.7%11.9%13.5%14.1%12.7%13.8%14.5%15.6%15.4%10.8%14.3%11.4%14.4%12.4%

of which - Private6.3%7.9%8.3%4.1%4.5%4.2%4.5%4.6%5.1%5.8%6.0%6.6%7.1%7.9%8.6%8.0%9.2%9.8%8.9%10.2%11.3%12.5%12.7%6.9%10.9%7.4%11.1%8.7%

- Public2.4%3.3%3.4%1.2%1.7%2.5%2.7%3.4%4.4%4.7%4.6%3.9%3.8%3.3%3.1%3.9%4.3%4.2%3.8%3.7%3.2%3.1%2.7%3.9%3.4%4.0%3.3%3.8%

Machinery and Equipment2.6%2.6%3.0%3.2%3.4%4.0%4.0%5.0%6.2%6.3%5.7%5.4%6.8%5.7%5.0%4.0%5.7%5.1%5.1%5.0%5.6%6.6%7.0%5.6%5.7%5.6%5.9%5.7%

of which - Private1.6%1.6%1.9%1.9%1.6%1.8%2.1%3.1%4.1%4.3%4.0%4.2%5.4%4.5%3.9%3.0%3.8%3.2%3.4%3.4%4.1%4.5%4.7%4.0%3.9%4.0%4.0%4.0%

- Public1.0%1.0%1.1%1.3%1.8%2.1%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.0%1.7%1.2%1.4%1.3%1.0%1.0%1.9%2.0%1.7%1.6%1.5%2.2%2.3%1.6%1.9%1.6%1.8%1.7%

Net Change in Stocks0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%-4.3%3.3%1.3%0.5%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.0%0.4%0.1%0.4%0.2%

Plus Exports9.2%12.6%13.4%13.6%8.9%8.2%8.6%7.8%7.9%9.4%7.6%9.4%12.7%12.8%14.3%10.1%12.5%10.5%11.4%11.9%12.3%13.7%12.3%10.4%12.0%10.7%12.3%11.2%

of which - Goods8.2%11.8%12.7%12.4%7.2%6.6%7.3%6.3%6.4%7.6%5.9%7.6%11.4%10.6%11.8%7.4%9.4%7.1%7.5%8.0%7.9%8.6%8.2%8.4%7.9%8.5%8.1%8.4%

- Services1.0%0.8%0.8%1.1%1.7%1.6%1.4%1.4%1.5%1.8%1.7%1.8%1.4%2.3%2.5%2.7%3.1%3.4%3.9%3.8%4.3%5.1%4.1%2.0%4.1%2.2%4.2%2.9%

Less Imports15.8%13.4%14.7%16.1%19.5%19.2%19.7%20.8%23.3%26.0%22.7%20.5%22.9%24.5%23.3%20.7%24.3%23.1%24.7%26.3%26.5%27.6%25.7%22.9%25.6%23.1%26.2%24.1%

of which - Goods, fob10.9%9.0%9.8%10.8%13.1%12.9%13.2%13.7%15.3%16.7%14.5%12.9%14.3%14.3%13.6%14.4%16.7%15.6%16.7%17.1%18.1%19.4%18.3%14.6%17.5%14.8%17.9%15.9%

- Services1.9%2.0%2.2%2.5%2.9%3.0%2.9%3.4%3.9%4.8%4.3%4.1%5.4%6.3%5.9%6.3%7.7%7.4%8.0%9.2%8.4%8.2%7.5%5.2%8.1%5.6%8.2%6.5%

Domestic absorption106.6%100.9%101.2%102.6%110.6%111.0%111.0%113.0%115.4%116.6%115.1%111.1%110.1%111.6%109.0%110.6%111.8%112.5%113.2%114.4%114.3%113.9%113.4%112.4%113.6%112.4%113.9%112.9%

External absorption-6.6%-0.9%-1.2%-2.6%-10.6%-11.0%-11.0%-13.0%-15.4%-16.6%-15.1%-11.1%-10.1%-11.6%-9.0%-10.6%-11.8%-12.5%-13.2%-14.4%-14.3%-13.9%-13.4%-12.4%-13.6%-12.4%-13.9%-12.9%

33.3%37.6%

100.0%100.0%

Total Expenditure on GDP (A)100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

Statistical Discrepancy (B)0.1%-4.3%-5.6%2.8%2.9%3.3%4.2%2.7%1.6%2.4%3.0%2.8%6.0%-1.2%-1.9%1.5%0.8%0.2%0.5%-0.5%0.1%0.2%0.5%1.8%0.2%1.5%0.2%1.1%

GDP at Market Prices (A+B)100.1%95.7%94.4%102.8%102.9%103.3%104.2%102.7%101.6%102.4%103.0%102.8%106.0%98.8%98.1%101.5%100.8%100.2%100.5%99.5%100.1%100.2%100.5%101.8%100.2%101.5%100.2%

101.8%

Export price index127.3484.678.862547760868.853160371757.021569311376.8632655092154.2438239596131.8304691684140.5955815977126.9052853205129.923074415810079.363585193163.584492379973.413436107985.196283774894.6042490699

Import price index90.7785.8593.739857812596.38942228199.071340230996.4210843408104.4362552305111.1146168887109.9951471685105.3934114277102.282062553710099.72682336397.4701585886103.420456523111.6781714352119.2687781069

Export price shs71.35689348171.35689348162.643257044365.212317734482.0073683785137.4372987594128.0651632635143.0875365858141.6244132833174.7234142709149.2246293669138.1404038389110.1780717097136.4621687976162.7426301528147.844315742

Import price shs86.384632344186.384632344188.9865689066114.0811775689101.740765296193.07410734107.6302078736112.9395350644119.6288440169138.1690254051149.2246293669173.8291103637165.0826964881194.1022814881216.5151278251206.5118714029

Export price US $75.219201639675.219201639666.033925429154.957044737875.3228128151149.2713280114128.0651632635136.9668080345124.768444471129.926457162410079.363585193163.584492379973.407614685485.196283774885.3925094789

Import price US$91.060341361291.060341361293.803111980896.140799732493.4477080729101.0882470154107.6302078736108.1084208155105.3907616337102.744168750310099.86724394995.2703137204104.4141802419113.346357094119.2779502396

x/m price(shs)82.6%84.1%71.4%57.6%79.7%147.7%118.6%127.8%120.4%127.0%100.0%79.6%65.2%71.0%76.3%79.3%

x/m price(US $)140.3%98.5%84.1%71.4%57.6%79.7%147.7%118.6%127.8%120.4%127.0%100.0%79.6%65.2%71.0%76.3%79.3%

exports share in GDP8.6%7.8%7.9%9.4%7.6%9.4%12.7%12.8%14.3%10.1%12.5%10.5%11.4%11.9%12.3%13.7%12.3%

TOT adjustment (shs)0.0%0.0%0.1%-1.4%-1.5%3.6%10.9%-2.5%1.1%-0.6%0.7%-2.2%-2.3%-2.1%1.1%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.7%0.8%-0.4%

TOT adjustment (US $)-2.3%-1.2%-1.4%-1.5%3.6%10.9%-2.5%1.1%-0.6%0.7%-2.2%-2.3%-2.1%1.1%1.0%0.5%0.7%-0.7%0.7%-0.4%

Actual Growth6.1%5.8%4.0%7.9%6.3%10.9%9.8%4.9%4.7%8.2%5.4%5.0%6.4%4.7%5.9%5.8%6.9%5.5%6.8%5.5%

TOT Adjusted Growth8.4%7.0%5.4%9.4%2.7%0.0%12.3%3.8%5.3%7.5%7.7%7.3%8.5%3.6%4.8%5.3%6.2%6.2%6.1%5.9%

Actual Growth6.1%5.8%4.0%7.9%6.3%10.9%9.8%4.9%4.7%8.2%5.4%5.0%6.4%4.7%5.9%5.8%6.9%5.5%6.8%5.5%

TOT Adjusted GDP growth(Shs)5.7%5.4%9.4%2.7%0.0%12.3%3.8%5.3%7.5%7.7%7.3%8.5%3.6%4.8%5.3%5.8%6.2%6.0%5.9%

0.826036895

GDE0.8260368958.1%5.8%

GDP at Market Prices6.9%5.5%

GDY7.0%5.5%

rate calculations

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000

000

EXPENDT

UPDATED:11/07/2005

GDP AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES: CALENDAR YEARS 1981 - 2004 , MILLION SHILLINGSGDP AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES: FISCAL YEARS 1981/82 - 2004/05, MILLION SHILLINGS

Table 3(a)Table 7(a)

ITEM198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004ITEM1981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/05

GDP at Basic Prices2,8043,8815,9739,25524,50759,895208,529583,3931,088,1361,445,2002,017,7763,378,9953,583,8384,682,5385,346,0995,807,1576,521,7667,171,1117,998,4598,650,3239,319,0169,901,01211,667,12312,951,938GDP at Basic Prices3,3594,8147,38415,86038,894114,010356,557822,0901,242,3811,638,6542,482,9663,484,5153,907,9274,764,9675,418,6015,854,8766,930,7607,464,6118,185,7339,155,0409,359,10210,766,14712,055,84413,891,105

net Taxes on Products and Imports582664959821,8383,0537,93223,06951,15594,559126,908185,159274,002353,972478,439562,461624,582690,064755,724798,394854,480951,2881,072,6811,212,862net Taxes on Products and Imports2053427171,3712,4444,06415,55235,19874,231110,742145,213226,544306,598412,458515,923593,637645,547738,127769,473822,609893,1101,014,2041,144,4911,243,194

GDP at Market Prices2,8634,1476,46710,23726,34562,949216,462606,4611,139,2911,539,7592,144,6843,564,1533,857,8415,036,5105,824,5396,369,6187,146,3477,861,1758,754,1839,448,71710,173,49610,852,30012,739,80314,164,800GDP at Market Prices3,5645,1568,10217,23141,337118,074372,109857,2871,316,6121,749,3962,628,1793,711,0594,214,5255,177,4255,934,5236,448,5137,576,3078,202,7398,955,2079,977,64910,252,21111,780,35113,200,33515,134,299

1362.01512.81762.91754.61882.91934.91743.31743.3

6,0225,9205,6605,8436,2576,8228,681

EXPENDITURE ON GDP AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES: CALENDAR YEARS 1981 - 2004EXPENDITURE ON GDP AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES: FISCAL YEARS 1981/82 - 2004/05, MILLION SHILLINGS

Table 3(b)Table 7(b)

EXPENDITURE ITEM198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004EXPENDITURE ITEM1981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/05

Total consumption3,4654,9117,36615,78937,840115,881361,729820,6111,280,9171,714,2892,564,5713,569,3123,910,6994,730,1085,486,7585,981,3037,031,6367,513,4378,309,0789,437,2249,813,48911,029,42112,034,37313,653,575

Private Consumption2,4693,4105,0577,15820,22951,008179,632510,350982,2021,276,8961,738,0962,908,6063,067,7833,847,9194,534,1355,123,8285,724,2246,169,0326,932,8717,603,1918,172,2488,644,4929,984,42610,751,182Private Consumption3,0504,3206,31612,83433,463104,586325,626749,4511,163,0601,529,7912,262,1563,136,9893,392,9714,129,0694,765,7305,098,1196,055,8716,419,4367,069,8828,095,9968,250,3419,285,06110,118,13011,506,014

Government Consumption4155921,0502,9554,37711,29536,10371,160117,857184,498302,415432,322517,728601,040721,028883,184975,7651,094,0011,239,1951,341,2281,563,1491,744,3601,916,2442,147,561

Government Consumption4825187951,9053,8486,92620,40753,41195,320154,562189,993387,574512,057574,355695,582894,596935,0401,033,1931,164,3371,289,2021,447,9431,651,2701,828,2832,028,608411.48581.311173.602681.943396.1811024.7938455.9492781.48167573.85271628.23428056.48580580.39643018.12650956.461214660.911181967.981224513.561590166.591743658.061805575.451981724.462414228.752970753.023432201.89

Fixed Capital Formation4115811,1742,6823,39611,02538,45692,781167,574271,628431,285586,777653,912863,2331,018,7671,096,8021,184,9231,566,9841,715,1441,765,6001,941,2872,368,0602,925,1293,367,561

Fixed Capital Formation2543735078312,0005,33724,11162,781120,300218,709351,306530,177622,948753,062998,9261,069,3871,177,4041,434,0041,728,7131,745,1741,960,4192,183,0252,737,8083,307,102of which - Private2904108111,8602,4086,98121,72154,30597,833158,623259,371361,449442,702611,237742,836823,578819,8121,058,1821,164,9461,219,4791,401,3851,815,1092,233,6772,614,400

of which - Private1772423225081,3753,31112,57834,29566,992123,370203,378314,543398,206521,752717,994792,325857,474995,2551,193,8741,228,9061,411,7741,652,3772,140,1782,578,348- Public1211723638229884,04316,73538,47669,741113,005171,914225,328211,210251,996275,932273,224365,111508,802550,198546,121539,902552,952691,451753,161

- Public771311853236252,02611,53328,48753,30895,339147,928215,633224,742231,311280,933277,062319,930438,750534,839516,268548,645530,648597,630728,755

Construction3124479552,1352,1227,16624,20059,472102,851164,486269,529381,787433,043531,371675,075771,360885,7671,099,9451,255,4161,262,9451,424,7391,711,3162,049,9552,314,963

Construction1882603445411,2523,38113,40738,90773,563128,749210,051338,615403,170493,582616,362755,679871,2551,045,9271,263,0361,265,5271,440,1811,649,1061,981,0612,306,454of which - Private2273256731,5141,6565,18115,08837,02158,66988,363149,424216,534271,635346,892474,490566,699597,171748,318879,946881,2451,046,9991,335,1871,643,8771,910,701

of which - Private1471902473759362,4988,09024,43242,76770,190114,827191,424247,732324,687427,510557,062632,082727,777908,890909,6681,061,5661,272,9431,594,0311,908,459- Public841222826214661,9859,11222,45144,18276,123120,104165,253161,408184,479200,585204,661288,596351,628375,471381,700377,740376,129406,078404,262

- Public4170971663178835,31814,47530,79658,56095,224147,190155,438168,895188,852198,617239,173318,150354,146355,859378,615376,162387,030397,995

Machinery and Equipment1001342195471,2753,85914,25633,30964,722107,142161,756204,990220,869331,862343,692325,442299,156467,039459,728502,655516,548656,744875,1741,052,598

Machinery and Equipment661131632907481,95710,70423,87446,73889,959141,255191,562219,777259,481382,564313,708306,149388,078465,677479,647520,238533,920756,7471,000,649of which - Private63851383467521,8006,63317,28439,16470,260109,946144,915171,067264,345268,346256,879222,642309,864285,000338,234354,386479,922589,801703,699

of which - Private3052751334408134,4889,86224,22553,18088,550123,119150,474197,065290,483235,263225,392267,478284,984319,238350,207379,434546,147669,889- Public3749812025232,0597,62316,02525,55936,88351,81060,07549,80267,51775,34668,56376,514157,175174,728164,421162,162176,822285,373348,899

- Public3661881573081,1436,21614,01222,51236,77952,70468,44369,30462,41692,08078,44580,757120,599180,693160,409170,031154,486210,600330,760

Net Change in Stocks0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(3,228)(6,197)(10,894)(212,276)195,89485,16639,59123,18228,51439,97540,43846,16845,62464,641

Net Change in Stocks0000000000(2,756)13,694(7,793)68,00913,01718,90821,32030,87715,79140,93638,06640,87651,63751,520

Plus Exports3064721,0642,4535,44910,25129,55271,12799,536136,496240,351273,159384,313622,364771,484939,696750,4331,019,499940,7971,134,7141,222,3831,441,9321,803,0781,849,370

Plus Exports1303916261,4802,9187,48718,72647,21685,438108,606181,647246,962302,351538,724641,208868,879803,999875,5831,005,0871,009,8061,210,4051,259,4751,645,8541,830,983of which - Goods2724239962,3115,0008,31523,61559,82481,362110,139194,639211,395311,293555,178634,277777,006548,722766,161633,183748,560827,628934,8211,136,0371,228,074

of which - Goods1303525611,4002,6856,52515,34237,99271,08487,416146,534192,945233,895464,691545,172717,702625,714651,290719,746659,212819,528841,0791,025,2351,185,341- Services3449681434491,9365,93711,30318,17426,35745,71261,76473,02067,186137,207163,032201,711253,338307,614386,154394,755507,112667,041621,296

- Services03965812339633,3849,22414,35421,19035,11254,01768,45574,03396,036151,177178,285224,293285,341350,594390,876418,396620,619645,642

Less Imports6568131,1372,6806,48122,41969,346161,733266,156400,994666,133818,690839,4231,116,8031,469,0821,529,6431,544,6441,981,6772,059,4262,450,0102,710,9163,119,1683,634,2803,872,475

Less Imports4676007421,1782,7609,45835,73786,118172,495255,833408,175603,917645,855945,1961,101,6941,811,3481,379,0901,783,7812,004,4702,224,6592,596,6932,863,6003,464,5554,023,968of which - Goods, fob4655647631,7934,32415,03946,346108,635175,961263,029427,503522,754529,465697,985857,345896,3451,072,7271,356,4041,394,9211,659,4431,761,3632,128,7212,556,3052,749,796

of which - Goods, fob3415176099402,2237,59329,41568,604141,014201,166317,482460,063480,661631,355787,8531,409,795959,5721,239,0681,354,4721,502,7951,712,5471,892,7582,438,3772,902,076- Services691001714101,0063,37910,66324,20643,24967,679123,885155,479167,336262,667376,913388,014471,917625,273664,505790,567949,554990,4471,077,9751,122,679

- Services126831332375371,8656,32117,51431,48154,66790,693143,855165,194313,841313,841401,553419,518544,713649,998721,864884,146970,8421,026,1781,121,8931922493748872,1577,38023,00153,09890,195137,965238,630295,936309,958418,817611,738633,299471,917625,273664,505790,567949,554990,4471,077,9751,122,679

Total Expenditure on GDP (A)

Total Expenditure on GDP (A)2,8684,0926,24310,19726,23561,301207,140587,6401,110,7661,502,9412,050,1113,483,0953,851,4914,836,8735,781,1746,164,2507,282,8967,758,9088,842,3299,463,65010,232,38710,915,53812,783,45413,945,42703,5265,1518,46718,24540,204114,738360,390822,7861,281,8711,721,4192,566,8453,604,3614,098,6074,886,6266,003,8206,573,3247,461,9398,141,4268,934,1079,927,50410,306,68111,766,41413,173,92415,062,672

Statistical Discrepancy (B)3,5265,1518,46718,24540,204114,738360,390822,7861,281,8711,721,4192,566,8453,604,3614,098,6074,886,6266,003,8206,573,3247,461,9398,141,4268,934,1079,927,50410,306,68111,766,41413,173,92415,062,672

Statistical Discrepancy (B)(5)55224401101,6489,32218,82128,52536,81994,57381,0586,350199,63743,365205,368(136,548)102,267(88,146)(14,933)(58,891)(63,238)(43,651)219,3730385(365)(1,014)1,1333,33511,71934,50134,74127,97761,334106,699115,918290,799(69,297)(124,811)114,36861,31321,10050,146(54,469)13,93726,41071,627

GDP at Market Prices (A+B)

GDP at Market Prices (A+B)2,8634,1476,46710,23726,34562,949216,462606,4611,139,2911,539,7592,144,6843,564,1533,857,8415,036,5105,824,5396,369,6187,146,3477,861,1758,754,1839,448,71710,173,49610,852,30012,739,80314,164,80003,5645,1568,10217,23141,337118,074372,109857,2871,316,6121,749,3962,628,1793,711,0594,214,5255,177,4255,934,5236,448,5137,576,3078,202,7398,955,2079,977,64910,252,21111,780,35113,200,33515,134,299

Statistical Discrepancy as Percentage-23.1%-24.5%-26.3%-26.4%-27.6%-27.8%

Domestic absorption3,8775,4938,53918,47141,236126,906400,185913,3921,448,4911,985,9172,992,6284,149,8924,553,7175,381,0656,701,4197,163,2718,256,1509,103,60410,052,73611,242,79911,795,21413,443,65015,005,12617,085,7771310421703.5%

External Absorption-350.5-341.5-72.8-226.6-1032.3-12167.8-39794.5-90605.8-166620.1-264498.4-425782.4-545531.3-455110.2-494438.8-697598.7-589947.0-794211.0-962178.0-1118628.7-1315295.8-1488533.4-1677235.9-1831202.0-2023105.0-157566680.0%

3,5265,1518,46718,24540,204114,738360,390822,7861,281,8711,721,4192,566,8453,604,3614,098,6074,886,6266,003,8206,573,3247,461,9398,141,4268,934,1079,927,50410,306,68111,766,41413,173,92415,062,672463402382.9%1152855023.5%

000(0)000(0)0(0)0(0)000(0)000000(0)(0)

GDP AT CONSTANT (1997/98) MARKET PRICES: CALENDAR YEARS 1981 - 2004, MILLION SHILLINGSGDP AT CONSTANT (1997/98) MARKET PRICES: FISCAL YEARS 1981/82 - 2004/05 ,MILLION SHILLINGS

Table 4(a)Table 8(a)

ITEM198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004ITEM1981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/05

GDP at Basic Prices3,047,0033,254,9823,433,3583,283,4093,293,0493,337,4133,552,9143,801,6324,035,6354,273,8334,518,2194,728,6125,016,3705,527,1065,977,3676,299,4836,637,6847,256,3577,736,7998,090,4268,615,1579,013,1249,561,83810,071,296GDP @ FACTOR COST3,255,7323,453,1963,477,1643,385,2483,418,8313,547,9123,806,7394,042,6864,264,1014,498,1794,665,5745,037,4115,309,7005,843,0326,331,5836,637,7686,930,7607,468,3527,898,2538,299,5448,833,1429,231,4709,744,22210,296,765

net Taxes on Products and Imports93,671131,145153,277150,324134,397138,234138,594174,073204,716242,531269,350286,394338,521395,779498,345576,257609,031694,753733,680750,039795,391837,839910,0731,022,721INDIRECT TAXES111,788134,324148,897134,065122,909133,484164,638186,445224,480251,366273,424293,835357,687441,673566,861595,928645,547726,846742,944769,908817,285873,264951,9741,015,588

GDP at Market Prices3,140,6743,386,1273,586,6353,433,7333,427,4463,475,6463,691,5083,975,7054,240,3514,516,3634,787,5695,015,0065,354,8925,922,8866,475,7126,875,7407,246,7157,951,1108,470,4798,840,4669,410,5479,850,96410,471,91111,094,017GDP AT MARKET PRICES3,367,5213,587,5203,626,0613,519,3143,541,7403,681,3963,971,3774,229,1314,488,5814,749,5454,938,9985,331,2475,667,3886,284,7056,898,4457,233,6967,576,3078,195,1988,641,1989,069,4519,650,42710,104,73410,696,19611,312,353

EXPENDITURE ON GDP AT CONSTANT (1997/98) MARKET PRICES: FISCAL YEARS 1997/98- 2002/03

(million shillings)

EXPENDITURE ON GDP AT CONSTANT (1997/98) MARKET PRICES: CALENDAR YEARS 1981 - 2004, MILLION SHILLINGSEXPENDITURE ON GDP AT CONSTANT (1997/98) MARKET PRICES FOR FISCAL YEARS 1981/82 - 2004/05, MILLION SHILLINGS

Table 4(b)Table 8(b)

1997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/05

EXPENDITURE ITEM198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004EXPENDITURE ITEM1981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/97

Total consumption3,005,2133,286,1253,338,2453,234,2693,227,6553,385,8033,596,5783,759,8984,025,6984,204,0664,336,5264,644,3584,900,5685,719,8686,271,8596,246,7117,031,6367,524,8047,937,3738,470,0649,023,3549,420,3789,775,49710,155,566

Private Consumption2,486,5922,695,7112,871,7482,730,3882,714,7822,724,8122,882,6223,140,3763,349,4663,516,6263,682,4493,806,0374,006,2155,167,5155,197,2525,613,9775,812,0376,324,7036,757,7927,154,8597,605,7348,072,3488,518,6308,718,158Private Consumption2,607,4372,803,9442,825,6802,731,0802,744,4432,817,5473,058,1853,262,8833,440,1783,605,9333,700,5533,963,0314,162,8434,914,1085,398,6105,365,0986,055,8716,502,3536,845,3317,378,3377,867,1258,213,2578,494,1758,777,960

Government Consumption397,776482,182512,565503,190483,212568,256538,393497,015585,520598,134635,974681,326737,725805,759873,249881,614975,7651,022,4511,092,0421,091,7281,156,2291,207,1211,281,3221,377,606

Government Consumption394,613415,714474,845520,776472,850520,896545,146476,715518,605574,467602,473631,384689,163745,784811,199828,356913,934998,8351,056,6741,091,8851,123,5161,181,4011,243,6691,328,592387,980404,853387,479390,173385,648513,878637,490620,598650,939682,249651,058690,520774,6121,075,8371,277,5951,294,4811,224,5141,405,3121,412,6751,325,2421,461,8201,613,8611,840,2782,051,271

Fixed Capital Formation387,980404,853387,479390,173385,648513,878637,490620,598650,939682,249655,049697,132783,7441,119,1061,202,3861,178,8771,184,9231,382,8401,381,4861,279,7721,422,8651,573,2961,799,9271,995,884

Fixed Capital Formation358,373397,170393,103370,652373,827400,220613,662599,765619,341652,826670,846656,954711,701934,2701,199,1501,161,9091,225,1601,364,5301,442,1621,334,0671,433,0461,555,0621,725,4092,013,473of which - Private221,062230,364220,516249,002248,603263,255295,679308,193345,170387,359401,018440,361528,441774,262857,622868,933819,812958,181970,409920,2771,066,2401,249,7561,433,2951,609,411

of which - Private218,659242,173239,741226,153237,141221,483278,675270,174302,183351,944391,417401,513458,513641,981843,722843,840888,639961,3401,024,147972,9841,070,7441,222,2541,394,5331,636,457- Public166,917174,489166,963141,171137,045250,623341,810312,405305,769294,890254,031256,771255,304344,844344,764309,944365,111424,659411,077359,495356,625323,540366,632386,474

- Public139,714154,998153,362144,500136,686178,737334,986329,591317,158300,882279,429255,441253,187292,289355,428318,070336,521403,190418,014361,083362,302332,808330,877377,016

Construction262,262270,260259,077244,949227,597301,831378,049377,163395,915423,272427,975472,947532,739673,476765,566821,632885,767998,1721,041,628939,3161,064,5441,189,6771,351,7651,515,087

Construction230,033251,545250,000237,946227,451238,554341,060357,386379,631401,456426,777447,861494,549624,788739,451826,927906,3171,005,9371,087,104996,6801,074,9671,204,8531,320,9601,537,004of which - Private157,230162,024155,320157,277159,890164,332174,977181,872190,853217,532246,676281,785334,033418,443516,564586,952597,171702,967759,720691,186820,408969,4231,131,2671,287,980

of which - Private144,199157,684156,715149,159151,046154,297164,369170,050177,935203,346238,415267,127309,836406,942494,669592,622653,902714,183806,859748,430829,697973,3751,102,6401,317,483- Public105,033108,236103,75787,67267,707137,499203,072195,291205,062205,741181,299191,162198,707255,032249,002234,680288,596295,205281,908248,130244,136220,254220,498227,106

- Public85,83493,86193,28588,78776,40584,257176,691187,335201,696198,111188,363180,734184,712217,846244,782234,305252,415291,754280,244248,250245,271231,478218,320219,521

Machinery and Equipment125,717134,592128,402145,223158,051212,047259,441243,435255,024258,977227,074224,184251,005445,630436,820357,245299,156384,668339,858340,456358,321383,619448,162480,798

Machinery and Equipment128,340145,625143,103132,707146,376161,665272,602242,379239,710251,370244,069209,093217,152309,481459,699334,982318,842358,593355,058337,387358,079350,209404,450476,469of which - Private63,83368,33965,19691,72588,71398,923120,703126,321154,317169,827154,343158,575194,408355,819341,058281,982222,642255,214210,689229,091245,832280,333302,027321,430

of which - Private74,46084,48983,02676,99486,09567,186114,307100,124124,248148,599153,003134,386148,677235,038349,053251,217234,737247,157217,288224,554241,047248,879291,893318,974- Public61,88566,25363,20653,49969,338113,124138,738117,114100,70789,15072,73165,60956,59789,81295,76275,26376,514129,454129,169111,365112,489103,286146,135159,367

- Public53,88061,13660,07855,71360,28194,480158,295142,255115,462102,77191,06674,70768,47574,443110,64683,76584,105111,437137,770112,833117,032101,330112,557157,495

Net Change in Stocks0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(3,991)(6,611)(9,132)(43,269)75,209115,60339,59122,47131,19045,47138,95540,56540,35155,387

Net Change in Stocks0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(5,903)22,230(12,032)29,1436,14514,82618,80431,33513,66548,74638,24235,62849,68043,3880.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Plus Exports305,578337,229338,346326,824332,118326,503338,605358,564376,435354,748410,041390,545514,319633,418889,7551,159,336750,433946,772877,7821,004,2741,127,0531,187,7081,352,4451,414,407

Plus Exports199,892300,824289,140300,123332,788290,496297,882308,619348,724335,447362,768356,989396,340586,540647,9761,003,844869,409846,758918,810921,1431,079,8371,155,4081,248,6331,396,320of which - Goods264,200291,066293,715285,489288,359277,576284,885303,049318,061291,308340,339312,047416,267542,185722,975975,981548,722725,609633,009734,858852,488855,945929,555990,875

of which - Goods199,881259,534240,234261,284291,175247,020245,694256,336293,048277,639296,911287,311312,567492,155527,855833,891682,510635,437683,920661,086807,432870,207858,263966,860- Services41,37846,16344,63141,33643,75948,92753,72055,51558,37363,44069,70278,49998,05291,233166,780183,354201,711221,163244,773269,416274,565331,763422,890423,532

- Services1141,29148,90738,83941,61343,47552,18852,28355,67757,80865,85869,67983,77294,385120,122169,953186,899211,321234,890260,057272,406285,201390,370429,460

Less Imports713,234772,056777,616772,279791,483916,1641,011,7441,000,9671,001,760967,308975,678951,9061,068,9701,727,7132,054,1231,983,4491,544,6441,728,4031,641,1391,741,4061,972,7832,012,0812,155,7982,204,913

Less Imports490,148543,344570,655551,144568,588588,683774,522721,088750,106705,534693,208677,747667,0491,032,5561,372,1781,594,2521,438,4431,675,4731,661,6731,656,2051,868,0202,007,8112,101,2692,363,970of which - Goods, fob443,970467,201468,705470,409488,584583,370651,399630,683615,246580,284559,918536,425594,961916,9351,012,685991,4981,072,7271,205,8981,132,5551,211,0541,336,3901,423,3631,560,8221,614,347

of which - Goods, fob392,944417,809435,141420,502438,312453,624624,872565,591585,760538,242521,079501,125478,267749,679974,9581,141,932993,4241,175,4081,148,5161,141,7651,273,7011,383,4021,528,6151,768,724- Services269,264304,855308,910301,870302,898332,795360,346370,284386,514387,024415,759415,482474,009810,7791,041,438991,951471,917522,505508,584530,352636,394588,719594,976590,566

- Services97,204125,536135,513130,641130,276135,058149,649155,498164,346167,291172,129176,622188,782282,877397,220452,320445,018500,065513,158514,440594,319624,408572,654595,246

Total Expenditure on GDP (A)2,949,3223,266,0763,458,1813,370,7953,325,6583,347,7403,564,7903,804,3874,086,0304,373,8324,619,4254,795,8465,124,3376,430,6966,489,5457,028,6607,400,9027,890,6898,527,4288,894,4959,412,3559,992,03610,684,75311,135,961Total Expenditure on GDP (A)2,985,5373,256,1513,286,4543,178,9883,153,9383,310,0203,560,9293,738,0934,051,3124,273,7554,421,9474,773,5175,120,5295,701,4106,385,0866,717,0797,461,9398,148,4858,586,6919,058,1749,639,44310,209,86610,812,42311,416,332

Statistical Discrepancy (B)191,352120,052128,45462,937101,787127,906126,718171,319154,321142,531168,144219,160230,555(507,810)(13,832)(152,920)(154,188)60,420(56,949)(54,029)(1,808)(141,073)(212,842)(41,945)Statistical Discrepancy (B)381,984331,370339,607340,326387,802371,376410,448491,037437,269475,790517,051557,730546,859583,295513,359516,617114,36846,71354,50711,27710,985(105,132)(116,227)(103,979)

GDP at Market Prices (A+B)3,140,6743,386,1273,586,6353,433,7333,427,4463,475,6463,691,5083,975,7054,240,3514,516,3634,787,5695,015,0065,354,8925,922,8866,475,7126,875,7407,246,7157,951,1108,470,4798,840,4669,410,5479,850,96410,471,91111,094,017GDP at Market Prices (A+B)3,367,5213,587,5203,626,0613,519,3143,541,7403,681,3963,971,3774,229,1314,488,5814,749,5454,938,9985,331,2475,667,3886,284,7056,898,4457,233,6967,576,3078,195,1988,641,1989,069,4519,650,42710,104,73410,696,19611,312,353

Domestic absorption3,393,1933,690,9783,725,7243,624,4423,613,3023,899,6814,234,0684,380,4964,676,6374,886,3154,987,5845,334,8785,675,1806,795,7057,549,4547,541,1928,256,1508,930,1169,350,0489,795,30710,485,17311,034,23911,615,77512,206,837

External absorption(407,656)(434,827)(439,269)(445,454)(459,365)(589,661)(673,139)(642,403)(625,325)(612,560)(565,637)(561,361)(554,651)(1,094,295)(1,164,368)(824,113)(794,211)(781,631)(763,357)(737,133)(845,731)(824,373)(803,352)(790,505)

0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

GDY Calculation(9,069,451)

GDE

Net Income from abroad(US $ million)-21.1-54.0-235.1-91.8-105.3-118.4-74.8-84.1-109.0-141.8-128.9-127.4-144.8-138.6-177.0

Net Transfers from abroad(US million)342.4342.0384.6531.9632.6584.3325.9415.7343.0535.9491.0583.9621.21011.3860.1

Net income (US $ million)-21.1-54.0-235.1-91.8-105.3-118.4-74.8-84.1-109.0-141.8-128.9-127.4-144.8-138.6-177.0

Net Income(Current Shs millions)(20,273.2)(51,884.1)(282,496.2)(101,233.5)(98,183.6)(119,932.8)(79,113.9)(96,656.9)(148,517.8)(214,286.9)(227,225.9)(223,606.5)(272,690.9)(268,193.2)(308,902.0)

Net income (Constant 1997/98 Shs)(55,041.0)(97,503.0)(405,829.4)(136,131.4)(119,181.8)(139,413.0)(88,746.9)(96,656.9)(148,381.3)(206,773.0)(206,543.1)(210,481.3)(233,903.8)(217,316.3)(230,893.3)

GDY4,694,504.04,841,495.34,925,417.25,531,256.36,165,523.36,759,031.87,144,948.77,479,649.88,046,816.38,434,424.88,862,908.39,439,946.19,870,830.510,478,879.511,081,459.6

Net Transfers from abroad(current Shs million)329,021.9328,628.0462,262.0586,523.5589,911.9591,790.7344,873.1477,932.5467,175.2809,993.0865,583.51,024,822.01,169,625.31,956,523.51,501,416.4

Net Transfers from abroad(constant 1997/98 Shs million)893,282.2617,573.2664,078.0788,714.3716,074.5687,913.0386,865.5477,932.5466,745.8781,591.1786,795.3964,667.01,003,259.81,585,365.71,122,255.6

Memo

GDP deflator0.110.140.220.491.173.219.3720.2729.3336.8353.2169.6174.3682.3886.0389.15100.00100.09103.63110.01106.24116.58123.41133.79

exchange rate(average)-Shs/US$960.8960.81201.81102.7932.51012.81058.11149.71362.01511.41762.91755.01882.81934.71745.6

TOT index82.670.457.280.6147.7119.0126.7118.4126.5100.079.566.770.375.271.6

Gross Domestic savings362,307301,395287,817285,044314,086295,593374,798469,233462,883545,479602,472686,889766,820564,837626,586986,985544,670670,394703,825599,387627,074684,356920,6981,156,787

10.8%8.4%7.9%8.1%8.9%8.0%9.4%11.1%10.3%11.5%12.2%12.9%13.5%9.0%9.1%13.6%7.2%8.2%8.1%6.6%6.5%6.8%8.6%10.2%

DATA FROM CAPMACH.WK!

(Range name: PUBLIC)

Public Machinery as a %

of Total Machinery

47.43199347.43

38.32199438.32

38.47199538.47

39.67199639.94

37.241997

1998

41.281999

37.792000

40.33

39.111993/9441.28

36.521994/9537.79

1995/9640.51

1996/9739.28

1997/98

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

&L&D

EXPENDT

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

wb153476:value of services does not allow adding up to total imports . CEM nos assume it as residue

Dont Need Fundamental Change ... New exports are emerging (BOP data)The World Bank

Labor Productivity & Labor Movements TFP from move out of Agric to Services (and possibly back (05/06 findings)


Mostly Through Informal Service Enterprises.which took off late 1990s.


Most Formal Firm Start-ups Are Small


Chart1

0.5962469164

0.1077311496

0.0863795186

0.0596275853

0.0263432031

0.0225271824

0.028914948

0.0170653896

0.055164107

Distribution of Employment In Firms Started Since 1989(Business Registry 2001)

isic-second-do_file

April 7Freq.SHORT LISTgen ec_activity_short=.

01097010AGRICULTURE (CROPS AND CATTLE)replace ec_activity_short=1if ec_activity==010

01057011AGRICULTURE (CROPS)replace ec_activity_short=1if ec_activity==011

01165012AGRICULTURE (CATTLE)replace ec_activity_short=1if ec_activity==012

0127013AGRICULTURE (FRUITS, NUTS, BEVERAGE)replace ec_activity_short=1if ec_activity==013

01214014AGRICULTURE (VEGETABLES, HORTICULTURE)replace ec_activity_short=1if ec_activity==014

11644020Fishing, Operation Of Fish Hatcheries And Fish Farmsreplace ec_activity_short=2if ec_activity==020

013248030Mining and Quarryingreplace ec_activity_short=3if ec_activity==030

0143040Processing And Preserving Of Fish And Fish Productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==040

02013050Vegetable and animal oils & fatsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==041

030114060Manufacture Of Dairy Productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==050

03043070Manufacture Of Sugar and Jaggeryreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==051

0309080Coffee and Tea Processingreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==060

03095090Distilling and maufacture of maltreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==070

04221100Manufacture Of Soft Drinks; Production Of Mineral Watersreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==080

04629110Manufacture Of Tobacco Productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==090

0557120Manufacture of starchesreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==091

05537130Cotton and associated activitiesreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==100

0559,250140Manufacture of textilesreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==110

05569150Manufacture Of Wearing Apparel, Except Fur Apparelreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==120

055101160Manufacture of apparel, leather and footwearreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==130

05574170Wood & wood productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==140

0556180Manufacture of paper and paper productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==150

0551,340190Printing actvitiesreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==160

0558200Manufacture of ptroleum and chemical productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==170

0432210Manufacture of rubber and plastci productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==180

043143220Manufacture of metal productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==190

04710240Manufacture of cements and related productsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==200

155554250Manufacture of electronics, etc.replace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==210

0557260Production, Collection And Distribution Of Electricityreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==220

05527270Collection, Purification And Distribution Of Waterreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==221

055235280Buidlingreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==222

0449290Civil Engineeringreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==223

054236300Motor repair and spare partsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==224

0581310Retails servicesreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==230

0581,746320Wholesale servicesreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==240

0581330Repair of personal households and other sevicesreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==250

0581340Hotels, Bars and Restaurantsreplace ec_activity_short=4if ec_activity==251

0583,074350Railway Transportreplace ec_activity_short=5if ec_activity==260

0581360Land passenger transportreplace ec_activity_short=5if ec_activity==261

05443370Freight Transport By Roadreplace ec_activity_short=5if ec_activity==270

0585380Air transportreplace ec_activity_short=5if ec_activity==271

0582390Warehousing and supporting tansport activitiesreplace ec_activity_short=6if ec_activity==280

0542400Post and courrier servicesreplace ec_activity_short=7if ec_activity==300

054241410Telecommunicationsreplace ec_activity_short=7if ec_activity==310

0562420Financial servicesreplace ec_activity_short=7if ec_activity==320

0542440Other Computer Related Activitiesreplace ec_activity_short=7if ec_activity==331

0547450Other Business servicesreplace ec_activity_short=8if ec_activity==340

054814460Public Service Activitiesreplace ec_activity_short=9if ec_activity==350

15056470Education servicesreplace ec_activity_short=9if ec_activity==360

1504480Health servicesreplace ec_activity_short=9if ec_activity==361

1505,726490Social servicesreplace ec_activity_short=9if ec_activity==362

150179500Recreation & Entertainmentreplace ec_activity_short=9if ec_activity==370

15036510Other Activitiesreplace ec_activity_shor

Documents

Forward With Growth Diagnostics Back to Industrial Policy? Reflections from Uganda CEM