Forward EngagementForward EngagementIntegrating Forecasting with PolicymakingIntegrating Forecasting with Policymaking

Spring 2004Spring 2004

Elliott School of International AffairsElliott School of International Affairs

The George Washington UniversityThe George Washington University

Either the future is really murkyOr, I must be going blind!

Section I: IntroductionSection I: Introduction

Presented by: Steve CahallPresented by: Steve Cahall

IntroductionIntroduction“A plan is nothing - planning is everything”“A plan is nothing - planning is everything”

Why Think about the Future?Why Think about the Future?• Increasing rate of historical change.Increasing rate of historical change.• Governments need to anticipate and respond early in Governments need to anticipate and respond early in

order to effectively manage change.order to effectively manage change.• Need to institutionalize forecasting as a regular part of Need to institutionalize forecasting as a regular part of

policy making process.policy making process.

What is Forward Engagement?What is Forward Engagement?• Systematically thinking about the future.Systematically thinking about the future.• Enabling public policy to engage the future sooner rather Enabling public policy to engage the future sooner rather

than later.than later.• Envision a desirable future and actively manage change.Envision a desirable future and actively manage change.

IntroductionIntroduction

What are the stakes?What are the stakes?• Global leadership of the United StatesGlobal leadership of the United States• Liberal democratic systemLiberal democratic system• Survival of the International State SystemSurvival of the International State System• Environmental SustainabilityEnvironmental Sustainability• Societal StabilitySocietal Stability• Survival of HumanitySurvival of Humanity

IntroductionIntroductionWhat have we done in Class?What have we done in Class?

Build Institutions

Identify FCIs

Generate Policy Options

Practice Forecasting

Future Contingencies of Interest Future Contingencies of Interest (FCIs)(FCIs)

New developments in any human New developments in any human endeavor with profound implications for endeavor with profound implications for society. society.

Magnitude and velocity necessitate action Magnitude and velocity necessitate action now to affect their occurrence and now to affect their occurrence and outcome.outcome.

Future Contingencies of InterestFuture Contingencies of InterestEconomicsEconomics High technology textilesHigh technology textiles EnergyEnergy Rejection of Capitalism by developing Rejection of Capitalism by developing

worldworld IndiaIndia China China EnvironmentEnvironment Developing countries default on IMF Developing countries default on IMF

loansloans

SecuritySecurity Increased asymmetric warfareIncreased asymmetric warfare Geopolitical shifts and alliancesGeopolitical shifts and alliances Revolutionary weapons developmentRevolutionary weapons development SurveillanceSurveillance DemographicsDemographics State disintegrationState disintegration

GovernanceGovernance Internet governanceInternet governance Water ScarcityWater Scarcity Mass privatizationMass privatization Space colonizationSpace colonization RegionalismRegionalism DiseaseDisease State disintegrationState disintegration

SecuritySecurity NanotechnologyNanotechnology GeneticsGenetics EnvironmentEnvironment EnergyEnergy DiseaseDisease Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence

NodesNodes

Dynamic points of intersection among Dynamic points of intersection among FCIs.FCIs.

Developments in one area have ripple Developments in one area have ripple effects in other areas.effects in other areas.

Cause and effect operate in a positive Cause and effect operate in a positive feedback loop.feedback loop.

Key Nodal PlayersKey Nodal Players

TechnologyTechnology

EnergyEnergy

DemographicsDemographics

EnvironmentEnvironment

HealthHealth

MultipolarityMultipolarity

North-South DivideNorth-South Divide

Section IISection IIInstitutionalizing Forward Institutionalizing Forward

EngagementEngagement

Presented by: Melissa NachateloPresented by: Melissa Nachatelo

Case for a Planning InstitutionCase for a Planning Institution

Increasing Interconnectivity of Increasing Interconnectivity of developments in Human Affairs.developments in Human Affairs.

Future Planning within government highly Future Planning within government highly disaggregated.disaggregated.

Lack of strong directional pull that imparts Lack of strong directional pull that imparts coherence to US policies concerning the coherence to US policies concerning the future.future.

Government Policy lags development Government Policy lags development rather than lead.rather than lead.

National Commission on Strategic National Commission on Strategic Planning (CSP)Planning (CSP)

CSP MandateCSP Mandate• Identifying FCIs pertinent to U.S. interests Identifying FCIs pertinent to U.S. interests • Coordinating government efforts to Coordinating government efforts to

implement a national strategy for U.S. implement a national strategy for U.S. policy. policy.

• Provides input to executive and legislature Provides input to executive and legislature to facilitate forward-leaning policy. to facilitate forward-leaning policy.

National Commission on Strategic National Commission on Strategic PlanningPlanning

CharacteristicsCharacteristics• Centralized, Coordinative institution charged Centralized, Coordinative institution charged

with long-term forecasting and policy planning.with long-term forecasting and policy planning.• Joint Commission serves both the Executive Joint Commission serves both the Executive

and Legislative branches of government.and Legislative branches of government.• Plays an advisory role.Plays an advisory role.• Composed of Political Appointees, executive Composed of Political Appointees, executive

staff and Subject Matter Expertsstaff and Subject Matter Experts• Life of the Commission automatically renewedLife of the Commission automatically renewed

Commissioners

ExecutiveDelegates

CongressionalDelegates

FCI Generation and Analysis

& Policy Options

Think Tanks, NGOs, etc.

Gov

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ent D

ept /

Age

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INPUT / COORDINATION

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CongressWhite House /

NSC

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National Commission on Strategic National Commission on Strategic PlanningPlanning

Key Functions of the CSPKey Functions of the CSP

Identify FCIs. Identify FCIs.

Robust understanding of the issues and Robust understanding of the issues and interactions.interactions.

Identify policy options.Identify policy options.

Provide coherence to overall U.S. Policy by Provide coherence to overall U.S. Policy by working with Executive and the Legislative.working with Executive and the Legislative.

Conduct periodic review of policy options and Conduct periodic review of policy options and assess impact of policies. assess impact of policies.

Participates in the executive budget and program Participates in the executive budget and program review process.review process.

Section III: CSP StructureSection III: CSP Structure

Presented by: Sean ConnellPresented by: Sean Connell

CSP OrganizationCSP Organization

Board of Commissioners

Executive Staff Executive Staff

Task Forces Task Forces Task Forces

FCI Generation and Analysis

& Policy Options

To Think Tanks, NGOs, Gov’t Depts & Agencies, etc.

Board of CommissionersBoard of Commissioners

Nine CommissionersNine Commissioners5 appointed by President5 appointed by PresidentOnly 3 from the same Only 3 from the same partypartyAt least 2 private citizensAt least 2 private citizens2 appointed by Senate2 appointed by Senate2 appointed by House2 appointed by House3 year terms3 year termsStaggered appointmentsStaggered appointments

“I’m the Big Boss

Lady”

Chief Commissioner

8 Commissioner

Functions of the Board of Functions of the Board of CommissionersCommissioners

Chief CommissionerChief Commissioner• Appointed by the PresidentAppointed by the President

CommissionersCommissioners• Responsible for crystallizing issues Responsible for crystallizing issues • Conceptualizing policy options for congress Conceptualizing policy options for congress

and the executiveand the executive

Executive StaffExecutive Staff

Executive Director

Deputy Director

Director of External Relations

General Counsel

Govt. Agency Liaisons

Congressional Liaisons

Functions of Executive StaffFunctions of Executive Staff

The Executive DirectorThe Executive Director• Reports to the Board of CommissionersReports to the Board of Commissioners• Responsible for managerial, operational and administrative Responsible for managerial, operational and administrative

aspectsaspects

The Deputy DirectorThe Deputy Director• Reports to the Executive DirectorReports to the Executive Director• Represents the Commission in the budget and program review Represents the Commission in the budget and program review

processprocess

Director of External RelationsDirector of External Relations• Reports to the Deputy DirectorReports to the Deputy Director• Main point of contact for all Executive, Legislative and Main point of contact for all Executive, Legislative and

Government AgenciesGovernment Agencies• Public outreach coordinatorPublic outreach coordinator

Functions of Executive Staff (Cont.)Functions of Executive Staff (Cont.)

General CounselGeneral Counsel• Advisor on Legal issuesAdvisor on Legal issues

Government Agency LiaisonsGovernment Agency Liaisons• Works with the Director of External RelationsWorks with the Director of External Relations• Liaise with Executive AgenciesLiaise with Executive Agencies

Congressional LiaisonsCongressional Liaisons• Reports to the Director of External RelationsReports to the Director of External Relations• Liaise with Executive AgenciesLiaise with Executive Agencies

Task ForcesTask Forces

Deputy Director

Science & Tech T.F.

Economic T.F

Security T.F.

Governance T.F.

Public Health

Section IV: Case StudySection IV: Case Study

Presented by: Emily WaechterPresented by: Emily Waechter

A Case Study in GeneticsA Case Study in Genetics

ObjectiveObjective• To trace an example through the Commission’s To trace an example through the Commission’s

policy-making process.policy-making process.

Step 1: Identify the IssuesStep 1: Identify the Issues• Uses roundtables, Delphi method, expert Uses roundtables, Delphi method, expert

consultations to generate ideas.consultations to generate ideas.• Perceives that developments in Genetic Perceives that developments in Genetic

Engineering could have positive and negative Engineering could have positive and negative consequences.consequences.

Understanding the IssuesUnderstanding the Issues

Step 2: ResearchStep 2: Research• Generates a report based on input from think-Generates a report based on input from think-

tanks and research institutions.tanks and research institutions.• Considers socio-economic benefits and fallout of Considers socio-economic benefits and fallout of

genetic engineering.genetic engineering.• Report projects current trends, such as Report projects current trends, such as

population.population.• Also considers possible wild-card scenarios, like Also considers possible wild-card scenarios, like

new forms of biological weapons.new forms of biological weapons.• Allows commission to develop a full Allows commission to develop a full

understanding of issues. understanding of issues.

Translating Issues into PolicyTranslating Issues into Policy

Step 3: Developing Policy OptionsStep 3: Developing Policy Options• Science/Technology Task Force forms Science/Technology Task Force forms

suggestions for addressing issues. suggestions for addressing issues.

Genetic Engineering Policies could include:Genetic Engineering Policies could include:• Complete ban on all cloningComplete ban on all cloning• Increased federal funds for R&D in geneticsIncreased federal funds for R&D in genetics• Constructing a regulatory agency to govern Constructing a regulatory agency to govern

genetically-modified foods.genetically-modified foods.• Increasing the retirement age if life expectancy Increasing the retirement age if life expectancy

increasesincreases

Enhancing PoliciesEnhancing Policies

Step 4: Infusion into the Policy ProcessStep 4: Infusion into the Policy Process• Recommendations considered by Congress and Recommendations considered by Congress and

President to develop legislation.President to develop legislation.• Policies should “sunset” to promote periodic reviewPolicies should “sunset” to promote periodic review• President can work to achieve international support President can work to achieve international support

for policies.for policies.

Step 5: Research ContinuesStep 5: Research Continues• Commission monitors progress in genetic Commission monitors progress in genetic

engineering.engineering.• Has policy had the desired effect? Are new issues Has policy had the desired effect? Are new issues

emerging? emerging? • Continuous process of updating policies. Continuous process of updating policies.

Section V: ConclusionSection V: Conclusion

ChallengesChallengesCommission will require policymakers to buy into the Commission will require policymakers to buy into the benefits of long-range planning.benefits of long-range planning.There also must be some public support for the There also must be some public support for the establishment and maintenance of the Commission.establishment and maintenance of the Commission.Long-range planning may be overshadowed by more Long-range planning may be overshadowed by more immediate issues.immediate issues.CSP must remain non-partisanCSP must remain non-partisanCSP’s recommendations may create disdain in CSP’s recommendations may create disdain in agencies who are having budgets or programs cut.agencies who are having budgets or programs cut.Liable to be ignored because of the lack of Liable to be ignored because of the lack of enforcement capabilities.enforcement capabilities.As a high-profile government entity, As a high-profile government entity,

the Commission will create a reputation.the Commission will create a reputation.

ConclusionsConclusions

As the 9/11 Commission has shown, there is As the 9/11 Commission has shown, there is a growing need for coordination and planning a growing need for coordination and planning across government agencies. across government agencies.

A need exists not only to prevent possible A need exists not only to prevent possible threats, but to foster future opportunities. threats, but to foster future opportunities.

An opportunity exists now to create an An opportunity exists now to create an institution that will think about the future. institution that will think about the future.

ConclusionsConclusions

Our current system is focused on Our current system is focused on specialized, reactive policy development. specialized, reactive policy development.

The CSP is the best way to institutionalize The CSP is the best way to institutionalize long-range planning in a way that will be long-range planning in a way that will be available – but not intrusive to – the available – but not intrusive to – the President and the Congress. President and the Congress.

• Both legislative and executive Both legislative and executive branches will have a stake in its branches will have a stake in its success.success.

QuestionsQuestions