Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
FORTUM Power and heat company in the Nordic area, Russia, Poland and Baltic Rim
Investor/Analyst materialFebruary 2012
2
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares.
Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser.
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18
-
29Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30
-
36
Russia, pages 38
-
45Data on capacity payments, pages 41
-
42Fortum’s investment
programme, page
45
Financials and outlook,
pages 47
–
55Hedges, pages 53
-
54
Content
4
Foreign investors 27.5%Finnish State 50.8%
Other Finnish investors 10.0%
Households 8.2% Financial and insurance institutions 3.5%
• Power and heat company in Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and Baltic Rim• Listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange 1998• Among the most traded shares in Helsinki stock exchange• Market cap ~16 billion euros
More than 100,000 shareholders
31 January 2012
5
Total ~ 8,630
MEUR
1999 2001 20032000 2002 2004
0.18 0.230.26 0.31
0.420.58
2005
1.12
Dividend per shareEUR
0.13
1998
0.58
0.54
2006
1.26
0.73
0.53
• Dividend 2011 EUR 1.00 per share, in total ~EUR 0.9 billion
• Dividend policy of 50-60% payout of previous year's results on the average
2007
1.35
0.77
0.58
2008
1.00
Capital returns
72% 103% 78% 58%
1.00
2009
68%
1.00
2010
68%
1.00
2011
50%
66
Strategy
Fortum’s purpose is to create energy that improves life for present and future generations. We provide sustainable solutions that fulfill the needs for low emissions, resource
efficiency and energy supply security, and deliver excellent value to our shareholders.
Mission
Leverage the strong Nordic core
Create solid earnings growth in Russia
Build platform for future growth
Competence in CO2
-free hydro, nuclear and energy efficient CHP production,and energy markets competence
Fortum’s Mission and Strategy
7
Strategy builds on our competences and industry beliefs
77
• Electricity solutions and distribution part of the Nordic core
More attractive growth prospects in power and heat generation
Two strong platforms for growth
• Nordic power wholesale and heat market
• Russian power and heat market
Competitiveness key for long term value creation
• Sustainable business models cannot rely on a continuous high level of subsidies
Integrating European energy markets and a gradual decrease in the weight of the Nordic power price
• Leverage our competences in nuclear, hydro and CHP
• Industrial restructuring opportunities
Strong focus on delivering value and stable returns to shareholdersStrong focus on delivering value and stable returns to shareholders
8
Our geographical presence today
TGC-1 (~25%)Power generation ~7 TWhHeat sales ~8 TWh
OAO Fortum Power generation 17.4 TWhHeat sales 26.7 TWh
Russia
PolandPower generation 0.6 TWhHeat sales 4.3 TWh
Baltic countriesPower generation 0.4 TWhHeat sales 1.1 TWhDistribution cust. ~24,000*
Nordic countriesPower generation 53.1 TWhHeat sales 17.2 TWhDistribution customers 1.6 millionElectricity customers 1.2 million
Nr 2 Power generation
Electricity sales
Nr 2
Nr 1 Heat
DistributionNr 1
Key figures 2011Sales EUR 6.2 bnOperating profit EUR 2.4 bn Personnel 10,800
Great BritainPower generation 1.2 TWhHeat sales 2.1 TWh
* Distribution business sold Jan 1, 2012
9
Power DivisionFortum’s power generation, physical operation and trading as well as expert services for power producers.
Heat DivisionCombined heat and power generation, district heating and cooling activities and b- to-b heating solutions.
Electricity Solutions and Distribution DivisionFortum's electricity sales and distribution activities. Two business areas: Distribution and Electricity Sales.
Russia DivisionPower and heat generation and sales in Russia. It includes OAO Fortum and Fortum’s slightly over 25% holding in TGC-1.
Businessdescription
Comparableoperating profit
Net assets
Volume (TWh)
Drivers
EUR 1,201 million
Distr.: EUR 3,589 millionEl. sales: EUR 11 million
EUR 3,273 million
EUR 278 million Distr.: EUR 295 million El. sales: EUR 27 million
EUR 74 million
Distr.net. 26.1, reg.net. 14.1El. sales: 14.4
Heat sales 22.6Power sales: 6.2
Nordic generation 48.1
EUR 6,247 million EUR 4,191 million
Fuel mix, heat andpower price
Nordic power price,generation volumes
New capacity, and price for that, power and heat price
Power sales.: 20.2Heat sales.: 26.7
Distr.: RegulatedEl. sales: Sales margin
Divisions of Fortum
10
Fortum mid-sized European power generation player; Global #4 in heat
* incl. TGC-5, TGC-6, TGC-7, TGC-9, ** incl. TGC-12, TGC-13, *** incl. International PowerSource: Company information, Fortum analyses, 2010 figures pro forma, heat production of Beijing DH not available.
Largest producers in Europe and Russia, 2010TWh
Power generation
DEI
Irkutskenergo*) IES
Iberdrola
RusHydroFortum
EnBW
Vattenfall
CEZ
RWE
PGESSE
Statkraft
RosenergoatomGazprom
NNEGC Energoat.
EnelE.ONEDF
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Inter RAO UES
GDF SUEZ***)
Largest global producers, 2010 TWh
Heat production
Onexim
Tatenergo
Minsk EnergoKievenergo
IrkutskenergoBashkirenergo
RAO ES EastInter RAO UES
TGC-2
Fortum
Dong EnergyKDHC, Korea
TGC-14
Lukoil
Gazprom
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140ELCEN, Rom.
Dalkia
SUEK**)
*) IES
Vattenfall
Electricity customers in EU, 2010millions
Customers
DEI
CEZ
Enel
CentricaEDP
Iberdrola
SSEEnBW
Fortum
EDFE.ONRWE
Gas NaturalFenosa
PGE
Tauron
GDF SUEZ
HafslundDong Energy
0 20 4010 30
Vattenfall
11
Biggest nuclear and hydro generators in Europe and Russia
Figures 2010 pro forma
TWhE
DF
Ros
ener
goat
om
E.O
N
NN
EGC
Ene
rgoa
tom
Enel
Rus
Hyd
ro
Vatte
nfal
l
GD
F S
UE
Z
Irkut
sken
ergo
Sta
tkra
ft
RW
E
Iber
drol
a
Fort
um
EnBW CE
Z
Verb
und
Kras
noya
rska
ya H
PP
Axpo
Hid
roel
ectri
ca
ED
P
Gaz
prom
Alpi
q
Ukr
hydr
oene
rgo
EPS,
Ser
bia
Gas
Nat
ural
Fen
osa
E-C
O E
nerg
i
Nor
sk H
ydro
DE
I
Agde
r Ene
rgi
Edis
on
BKK
Inte
r RAO
UES
SSE
PGE
IES
050
100150200250300350400450500550600
Total generationOtherNuclearHydro
12
Fortum's carbon exposure among the lowest in Europe
Source: PWC & Enerpresse, Novembre 2011Changement climatique et Électricité, Fortum
Average 337 g/kWh
g CO2 /kWh electricity, 2010
0
200
400
600
800
1000
DE
I
Dra
x
RW
E
CE
Z
SSE
Vat
tenf
all
E.O
N
Ene
l
Don
g
EDP
GD
F S
UE
Z E
urop
e
Uni
on F
enos
a
Iber
drol
a
PVO
Fortu
m to
tal
ED
F
Ver
bund
Fortu
m E
U
Sta
tkra
ft
2011*64%
of Fortum's total power generation CO2 -free86%
of Fortum’s power generation in the EU CO2 -free
Close to 100%
of the ongoing investment programmein the EU CO2-free
84189
Note:Fortum’s specific emission of the power generation in 2011 in the EU were 88 g/kWh and in total 192 g/kWh (*preliminary 2011 numbers).Figures for all other companies include only European generation.
13
Fortum’s strategic route
Stockholm Energi
Gullspång
Birka Energi50% Fortum
50% Stockholm
Länsivoima→100% E.ON Finland
Separation of oil businesses
Gullspång
Skandinaviska
Elverk
Birka Energi50% → 100%
StoraKraft
Länsivoima45% → 65%
Elnova50% → 100%
District heat in Poland 2003 →
Østfold
Shares in Hafslund
Shares in Lenenergo
Starting TGC-1
Divestment of Lenenergo
shares
TGC-10
Lenenergo shares 1998 →
Divestment of Fingrid
shares
Divestment of heat operations
outside of Stockholm
20082005 2006 20072002 2003 20041999 2000 20011996 1997 1998
IVO
2009 2010 2011
Neste
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Flag_of_Sweden.svghttp://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuva:Flag_of_Russia.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Flag_of_Sweden.svg
14
Private customers,
small businesses
Retail companies
Fortum in the Nordic electricity value chain
Large customers
Competitive businesses
Regulated businesses
Independent transmission system operator
Independent distribution companies
Generation
Nordic wholesale
market
Power exchanges and bilateral
Transmission and system services
Distribution
http://www.nasdaqomx.com/
15
Fortum's European power and heat production
Nuclear power 45%
Coal 9%
Other 1%
Hydro power 38%
Biomass 2%
European generation 55.3 TWh (Generation capacity 11,422 MW)
Fortum's
European power generation in 2011
Natural gas 5%
European production 22.0 TWh (Production capacity 10,625 MW)
Fortum's European heat production in 2011
Waste 4%Peat 3%
Heat pumps, electricity 12%
Oil 5%
Biomass fuels24%
Natural gas22%
Other 4%
Coal 26%
16
• Dow Jones Sustainability Index World– Fortum is the only Nordic power and heat company
listed in the index
• SAM
Sustainability Yearbook 2010 and 2011
• STOXX®
Global ESG Leaders indices
• oekom
• OMX
GES Sustainability Finland Index
• Storebrand
SRI (Fortum, the most responsible electricity company globally in 2006 and 2009)
• Carbon
Disclosure Project (sector leader in CDLI index in 2011)
1616
Fortum a forerunner in sustainability
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18
-
29Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30
-
36
Russia, pages 38
-
45Data on capacity payments, pages 41
-
42Fortum’s investment
programme, page
45
Financials and outlook,
pages 47
–
55Hedges, pages 53
-
54
18
2006
2010
2009
2012
2010-
2013
2011
Market coupling milestones - cross-border power flows optimised by power exchanges
• Market coupling between NL, BE and FR since 2006• Germany – Nord Pool Spot coupling started 11/2009• Market coupling for Central Western Europe (DE, FR, BeNeLux)
since 11/2010 with a continued coupling mechanism with Nord Pool Spot
• NorNed cable (NO-NL) included in January 2011• Poland coupled with Nord Pool Spot since December 2010• UK coupling started trough BritNed cable in April 2011• The TSOs and power exchanges are developing a single
market coupling for the whole western Europe by end-2012• In addition to day-ahead coupling, Nordic-CWE intraday market
coupling is due to be realised during 2012 as well • Estonian price area in Nord Pool Spot since April 2010
with full integration of the Baltic States during 2012–2013• EU’s European Target Model for cross-border power trading
sets 2014 as deadline for an EU-wide market coupling
2012
19
700
2100 600 600
350
Current transmission capacity from Nordic area to Continental Europe is ~4000 MW
CountriesTransmissioncapacity MW
From Nordics To Nordics
Denmark - Germany 2 100 1 550
Sweden - Germany 600 600
Sweden - Poland 600 600
Norway - Netherlands 700 700
Total 4 000 3 450
• Theoretical maximum in transmission capacity ~35 TWh per annum
• Net export from Nordic area to Continental Europe in 2011 was ~6 TWh
• During Nordic dry year 2010 net import was ~8 TWh• Approximately 20 TWh net export fairly easily reachable
20
Nordic and Continental markets are integrating – interconnection capacity could double by 2021
New interconnections could double the capacity to over
8000 MW by 2021
First direct 1000 MW NO- DE link could be built by
2018/2021
EU financial support for 700 MW DK-NL link to
connect offshore wind, too
EU support to connect Kriegers Flak offshore wind area to DK&DE; new 400 kV AC cable SE-DK also studied
Jutland – DE capacity to be increased by 500 MW in 2012
and by further 500 MW by 2018 LitPol Link of 1000 MW to connect the Baltic market to Poland by
2015/20. It would open a new transmission
route from the Nordic market to the Continent
New internal Nordic grid investments provide for
increased available capacity for export to the
Continent and Baltics
EU’s European Energy Programme for Recovery cofinancing Estlink 2 and
NordBalt
Both merchant and TSO projects for links to the UK by 2018/21; North Seas Countries’ Offshore
Grid Initiative launched for supergrid development
European Commission included the Northern Seas Offshore Grid and the
Baltic Energy Market Integration Plan as priority electricity corridors in its 2011
Infrastructure Package proposal
21
Nordic water reservoirs
Source: Nord Pool Spot
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
rese
rvoi
r con
tent
(TW
h)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2003 2010 20122011 reference level
22
Nordic year forwards
Year 15 Year 17Year 09 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 16€/MWh1 February 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012
Source: NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Wholesale price for electricity
EUR/MWh Nord Pool System Price Forwards
1 February 2012
Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
24
Wholesale prices for electricity
Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, EEX, APX-ENDEX, Bloomberg Finance LP, ATS, Fortum
Dutch
German
Nordic
Russian*
1 February 2012
* including capacity tariff estimate. E.g 9.4 €/MWh for 2010 and 6.8 for 2011.
EUR/MWh Spot prices Forward prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
25
Coal price (ICE Rotterdam)
04080
120160200240
USD
/ t
2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013
Gas price (ICE NBP)
0
20
40
60
80
100
GB
p / t
herm
2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013
CO2 price (ICE ECX EUA)
05
101520253035
EUR
/ tC
O2
2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013
Crude oil price (ICE Brent)
020406080
100120140160
USD
/ bb
l
2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013
Fuel and CO2 allowance prices
Source: ICE
Market prices 1 February 2012; 2012-2013 future quotations
26
Nordic power generation – dominated by hydro, but fossil needed
Source: ENTSO-E Memo 2010 *) Normal annual Nordic hydro generation 200 TWh, variation +/- 40 TWh.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Denmark Norway Sweden Finland
Fossil fuels
Nuclear
Biomass
Wind
Hydro *
TWh/a
Total Nordic generation 382 TWh in 2010
Net import in 2010: 18 TWh
25
78
TWh %
71
196
12
7
20
19
51
3
27
Still a highly fragmented Nordic power market
Source: Fortum, company data, shares of the largest actors; pro forma 2010 figures.
30%Fortum
Vattenfall
Dong Energy
Others
Statkraft
E.ONPVO
E-CO Energi
Agder Energi
Norsk HydroHelsinki
Power generation382 TWh
>350 companies
Electricity distribution15 million customers
~500 companies
Electricity retail15 million customers
~350 companies
Others
52%
DongEnergy
Vattenfall
Fortum
E.ON
Göteborg
Helsinki
Hafslund
SEAS-NVE
Statkraft
Bixia
Fortum
Vattenfall
OthersE.ON
53%
SEAS-NVE
Hafslund
HelsinkiGöteborgSyd Energi
DongEnergy
LNI Verkko
28
New capacity needed for increasing demand and retiring capacity replacements
Source: IEA WEO 2011 (New polices scenario)
• Growing global energy demand will be increasingly fulfilled by electricity in the future
• Substantial demand growth in the emerging markets
• Retirements and moderate demand growth in the EU
• Globally, 5 900 GW of new capacity needed by 2035
1) Total new capacity needed for increasing demand and retiring capacity replacements
464
708
544
938
159
204
217
1605
65
657
552
1784
2001
5896New capacity, total (1
Capacity changes, 2011-2035 (GW)
Retiring capacity
~30%~ 50%
~170%
~260%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
US Europe Russia China India Otherareas
Worldtotal
Growth, 2009-2035Primary energy demandElectricity generation
29
New capacity, except nuclear, will require over 60 EUR/MWh power price
Other costs ( variation)CO2 cost
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Cleancoal
EUR/MWh
Estimated lifetime average cost in nominal 2014 terms.Large variations in cost of new hydro and wind due to location and conditions.
0102030405060708090
100110
0102030405060708090
100110
Source: Nord Pool spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
EUR/MWh
Futures1 February 2012
1995 -97 -99 -01 -05 -07 -09 -11 -13-03 -15 -17
3030
Olkiluoto
LoviisaForsmark
Oskarshamn
Olkiluoto
LoviisaForsmark
Oskarshamn
Olkiluoto
LoviisaForsmark
Oskarshamn
Overview of Fortum’s nuclear fleet
LoviisaTwo units, built 1977 and 1981
2 × 488 MW = 976 MW
Fortum’s share: 100 %
Yearly production 8 TWh
Share of Fortum’s Nordic power production: 18 %
OlkiluotoTwo units, built 1978 and 1980 one under construction
880 + 880 MW = 1760 MWUnder construction 1600 MW
Fortum’s share: 27 % (468 MW)
Yearly production 14 TWh Fortum’s share: 4 TWh
Share of Fortum’s Nordic power production: 9 %
OskarshamnThree units, built 1972,1974 and 1985473 + 638 + 1400 = 2511 MW
Fortum’s share: 43 % (1089 MW)
Yearly production 17 TWh Fortum’s share: 7 TWh
Share of Fortum’s Nordic power production: 16 %
ForsmarkThree units, built 1980,1981 and 1985984 + 996 + 1170 = 3150 MW
Fortum’s share: 22 % (699 MW)
Yearly production 25 TWhFortum’s share: 5,5 TWh
Share of Fortum’s Nordic power production: 13 %
31
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Karhu Voima0,1
Mankala 8,1
Kemira 1,9
Fortum 26,6 Pohjolan
Voima 56,8
EPV Energia6,5
Ownership structures and formal responsibilities
Forsmarks Kraftgrupp ABForsmarks Kraftgrupp ABForsmark
OKG AktiebolagOKG AktiebolagOskarshamn
Teollisuuden Voima OyjTeollisuuden Voima OyjOlkiluoto
Fortum Power and Heat OyFortum Power and Heat OyLoviisa
OperatorLicenseeSite
OKG Aktiebolag
E.ON 54,5Fortum 43,4
Karlstadkommun 2,1
Loviisa:
Fortum is the owner, licensee and operator with all the responsibilities specified in the Nuclear Energy Act, Nuclear Liability Act, and other relevant nuclear legislation
Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB
Vattenfall66,0
Fortum 22,2
E.ON 9,9
SkellefteåKraft 2,0Other units: Fortum is solely an owner with none of the
responsibilities assigned to the licensee in the nuclear legislation. Other responsibilities are specified in the Companies Act and the Articles of Association and are mostly financial.
32
Fortum's nuclear power capacity in Nordics
Olkiluoto
LoviisaForsmark
Oskarshamn
• Finnish units world class in availability
• Availability improved in Swedish units
• Overview of production and consumption:www.fortum.com – investors - energy related links
Source: IAEA, NordPool. Rounded numbers.Situation on 25 January 2012
Load factor (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Planned annual outages days in
2012 (from Jan 1st onwards)Oskarshamn 1 80 51 63 85 68 77 72 24Oskarshamn 2 90 78 76 86 75 90 77 24Oskarshamn 3 85 95 88 70 17 31 75 26
Forsmark 1 85 76 81 81 88 93 79 23Forsmark 2 94 72 85 79 64 39 94 39Forsmark 3 95 92 88 69 86 81 85 16Loviisa 1 95 93 94 86 96 93 94 42Loviisa 2 95 88 96 93 95 89 94 23
Olkiluoto 1 98 94 97 94 97 92 94 16Olkiluoto 2 94 97 94 97 95 95 90 8
http://www.fortum.com/
33
Variety of technologies and ages
PWR = Pressurized Water Reactor The most common reactor type in the world (e.g. all French units, most US units). Also the Loviisa units are PWRs, but based on Russian design. High pressure prevents water from boiling n the reactor. The steam rotating the turbine is generated in separate steam generators.
BWR = Boiling Water Reactor Similar to the PWR in many ways, but the steam is generated directly in the reactor. Popular reactor type e.g. in Sweden, the US and Japan.
*Generation refers to technical resemblence based on KSU classification and not to reactor design generations. All reactors are of Generation II except Olkiluoto-3 (EPR) which is of Generation III.
Unit MWe (net) share [%] share [Mwe] Commercial operation AgeType /
Generation* Supplier
Loviisa-1 488 100,0 488 1977-05-09 34 PWR / 1 AEE (Atomenergoexport)Loviisa-2 488 100,0 488 1981-01-05 30 PWR / 1 AEE (Atomenergoexport)Olkiluoto-1 880 26,6 234 1979-10-10 32 BWR / 3 Asea-Atom / Stal-LavalOlkiluoto-2 880 26,6 234 1982-07-10 29 BWR / 3 Asea-Atom / Stal-LavalOlkiluoto-3 (1600) 25,0 (400) 2014 (?) PWR / 3 Areva / SiemensOskarshamn-1 473 43,4 205 1972-02-06 39 BWR / 1 Asea-Atom / Stal-LavalOskarshamn-2 638 43,4 277 1975-01-01 36 BWR / 2 Asea-Atom / Stal-LavalOskarshamn-3 1400 43,4 607 1985-08-15 26 BWR / 4 Asea-Atom / Stal-LavalForsmark-1 984 23,4 230 1980-12-10 31 BWR / 3 Asea-Atom / Stal-LavalForsmark-2 996 23,4 233 1981-07-07 30 BWR / 3 Asea-Atom / Stal-LavalForsmark-3 1170 20,1 236 1985-08-18 26 BWR / 4 Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
34
Third party nuclear liability in case of severe accident
34
Sweden(new, not in force)
Finland,temporarylegislation
Current, Sweden
700 M€
200 M€360 M€
500 M€Responsibility of company(insurance or guarantee)
Unlimited companyresponsibility
Convention parties 300 M€
State responsibility
300 M€
500 M€
700 M€
New Parisconvention
700 M€
145 M€
145 M€
Law approved by Parliament in 2010, requires separate decision from Government to come into force.
Has been approved by the Parliament. In force 1.1.2012 onwards.
Current,Finland
240 M€
145 M€ Requires ratification by 2/3 of member states to come into force. In Finland approved by Parliament in 2005.
35
Fortum to get 290 MW CO2 free capacity through upgrades in Sweden
Reactor
OKG 1
Completion
-
Increase 100% (MW)
0
Fortum's capacity increase
(MW)
Additional generation for Fortum
(TWh/a)
Fortum's capacity
after increase
(MW)
Fortum's generation
after increase
(TWh/a)- 205 ~2
OKG 2 2009, 2015 30 + 180 95 350 ~3
OKG 3 2011 250 110 607 ~5FKA 1 Decision 2013 120 ~25 257 ~2FKA 2 2012 130 30 264 ~2FKA 3 Decision 2013 170 ~35 270 ~2Total ~290 ~2 ~1,950* ~15
Capacity increase and completion timetable based on recent estimate (Nord Pool). At 31.12.2010 Fortum's share of Swedish nuclear capacity was 1,778 MW.
36
Fortum’s investment programme – Nordic region, Poland and Baltic countries
Additional electricity capacity around 800 MW~100% CO2
-free
Project Electricity,
MW Heat,
MW Commissioned
Olkiluoto
3, Finland 400 2014
Swedish nuclear upgrades 290
Refurbishing of hydro power 10-20 annuallyBrista, Sweden 20 57 Q4 2013
(waste CHP)Klaipeda, Lithuania 20 60 Q1 2013
(waste CHP)
Total ~800 ~225
Jelgava, Latvia 23 45 Q3 2013(biofuel CHP)
Järvenpää, Finland 23 63 Q2 2013(biofuel CHP)
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18
-
29Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30
-
36
Russia, pages 38
-
45Data on capacity payments, pages 41
-
42Fortum’s investment
programme, page
45
Financials and outlook,
pages 47
–
55Hedges, pages 53
-
54
38
Russia is the World’s 4th largest power market
South
Korea
Germ
anyUS
China
Japa
nRu
ssia
India
Cana
da
Franc
e
Nordi
c UK
Braz
il
0500
1,0001,500
2,0002,500
3,0003,500
4,0004,500
TWh
Data 2010 based on gross output.Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
39
OAO Fortum (former
TGC-10)• Operates in the heart of Russia’s oil and gas producing
region, fleet mainly gas-fired CHP capacity• 17 TWh power generation, 27 TWh heat production in 2011;
more than Fortum’s Nordic heat sales• Investment programme to add 85%, almost 2,400 MW to
power generation capacity • Annual efficiency improvement reached
EUR 100 million in Q2 2011 (compared to 2008 level)
TGC-1• Slightly over 25% of territorial generating company TGC-1
operating in north-west Russia• ~6,400 MW electricity production capacity (appr. 50% hydro),
~26 TWh/a electricity, ~30 TWh/a heat
39
Fortum - a major player in Russia
OAO Fortum
Tyumen
TobolskMoscow
St. Petersburg
Chelyabinsk
Nyagan
TGC-1
40
Day ahead power market prices for Urals
In addition to the power price generators receive a capacity payment.
40
Day ahead wholesale market prices – increase driven by recovering demand and gas price
2
Key electricity, capacity and gas prices in the OAO Fortum area
III/2009 III/2008IV/2011 IV/2010 20102011
Electricity spot price (market price), Urals hub, RUB/MWh
Average regulated gas price, Urals region, RUB 1000 m3
Average capacity price for CCS ”old capacity”, tRUB/MW/month
Average capacity price for CSA ”new capacity”, tRUB/MW/month
Average capacity price,tRUB/MW/month
Achieved power price for OAO Fortum, EUR/MWh
858
817
925
835
2,548
2,221 2,548 2,221
174
251
160
191
534
n/a 560
n/a
246
251 209
191
28.9
30.5
29.2
27.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
€/M
Wh
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
41
Power market liberalisation – two markets
41
Capacity wholesale market Electricity wholesale market
• CSA is the intended mechanism for earning a (reasonable) return on invested capital in new capacity• Capacity prices are a big part of a power generator’s income
– a typical CHP plant ~35%, CCGT ~55%, of revenues• In the day ahead (spot) market, the price mechanism is a day ahead hourly auction. Supply – demand
balance and variable cost (fuel) are the key drivers for the spot price• Financial market for electricity started in June, 2010
Capacity prices- Competitive capacity selection (CCS) and free bilateral agreements (FBA) - A higher, fixed capacity price for new
capacity (CSA* agreements, built after 2007)- Lower capacity price for old capacity, price caps limits the price in some areas- Old capacity intended for households are priced by regulated bilateral agreements (RBA)
Electricity prices- Day ahead (spot) market, financial market, free bilateral agreements (FBA) and regulated bilateral agreements (RBA)- Fully liberalised from 1 Jan 2011 except for volumes intended for households priced by RBA (~10% of volume)
* Capacity supply agreement
424242
Capacity prices for new capacity considerably higher than prices for old capacity prices
• Long term rules and price parameters approved• Both “old” and “new” capacity can participate in capacity auctions• Old capacity (pre 2007) and new capacity priced differently
– Old capacity is priced by capacity auctions; price cap possibility– New capacity under capacity supply agreements to receive guaranteed payments
• The payments for new capacity are based on approved pricing formulas– Vary according to plant size, fuel, geographic location, capital costs, …– Allow the recovery of capital costs and include return on invested capital; the targeted ROCE level 12-14%
(with current government benchmark bond yields)– After three years (2014), the regulator will review the earnings from the electricity-only market and can revise
the payments, same goes after 6 years.
• “Old” capacity prices will depend on auction outcomes, but likely remain relatively low; potentially price caps could limit price
42
4343
Long-term financial target will be dictated by basic economic logic
~EUR 100 million improvement in EBITDA through the efficiency
improvement programme
Invested capitalEUR
~2.5 bn
~4 bn
2011 ~2014
In 2009, WACC for Russia was ~12%
Assuming, having completed the investment programme, an invested capital of
a
b
a
… and an unchanged cost of capital
b
The annual comparable operating profit in Russia needs to be in excess of ~EUR 500 million in order to beat to cost of capital (WACC) …soon after the completion of the investment programme
4444
Key factors behind the profitability improvement in Russia
* Capacity Supply Agreement
Efficiency improvement programme 2008-2011– Increasing heat production profitability– Fuel efficiency improvement– Cost savings
New capacity commissioning 2011-2014– Additional capacity 2,388 MW; +85%– Capacity is sold at CSA* contracts with
guaranteed higher price
Pace of new capacity increase of Fortum investment programme
in Russia
2011 -
638
MW 2012 -
836 MW2013 -
418 MW2014 -
496
MWTotal
-
2,388
MW
4545
85% increase in power generation capacity by the end of 2014 through the investment programme
Power generation capacity (MW)
Plant Fuel type Existing Planned Total
Tyumen CHP-2 Gas 755 755Tyumen CHP-1 Gas 472 209; 2*248 1177Tobolsk CHP Gas 452 213 665Chelyabinsk CHP-3 Gas 360 216 576Chelyabinsk CHP-2 Gas, coal 320 320Argayash CHP Gas, coal 195 195Chelyabinsk CHP-1 Gas, coal 149 149Chelyabinsk GRES Gas 82 82 Nyagan GRES Gas 3x418 1,254Boilers -
Total 2,785 2,388 5,173
(CHP/Condensing)
(CHP/Condensing)(Condensing)
(Condensing)
Supply date
2012, 2012, 2013
June/2011
Feb/2011; 2014
Oct/2011
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18
-
29Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30
-
36
Russia, pages 38
-
45Data on capacity payments, pages 41
-
42Fortum’s investment
programme, page
45
Financials and outlook,
pages 47
–
55Hedges, pages 53
-
54
4747
Strong financial position
• Electricity will continue to gain a higher share of the total energy consumption
• Annual electricity demand growth approximately 0.5%
• Good production portfolio going forward- Growth in Russia
• Hedges create stability
4848
Income statementMEUR IV/2011 IV/2010 2011 2010
Sales 1 667 1 902 6 161 6 296Expenses -1 159 1 361 -4 359 -4 463
Comparable operating profit 508 541 1 802 1 833
Items affecting comparability 71 -220 600 -125
Operating profit 579 321 2 402 1 708Share of profit of associates and jv's 19 21 91 62Financial expenses, net -66 -57 -265 -155
Profit before taxes 532 285 2 228 1 615Income tax expense -88 -25 -366 -261
Net profit for the period 444 260 1 862 1 354Non-controlling interests 23 29 93 54
EPS, basic (EUR) 0.47 0.26 1.99 1.46EPS, diluted (EUR) 0.47 0.26 1.99 1.46
4949
Comparable and reported operating profit
MEURIV/2011 IV/2010 IV/2011 IV/2010 2011 2010 2011 2010
Power 351 336 443 129 1 201 1 298 1 476 1 132Heat 96 122 100 124 278 275 380 303Russia 35 17 35 16 74 8 74 53Distribution 49 91 41 93 295 307 478 321Electricity Sales 2 3 -6 40 27 11 3 46Other -25 -28 -34 -81 -73 -66 -9 -147Total 508 541 579 321 1 802 1 833 2 402 1 708
Comparable operating profit
Reported operating profit
Comparable operating profit
Reported operating profit
• IFRS accounting treatment (IAS 39) of derivatives had a positive impact on the reported operating profit. In the fourth quarter EUR 72 (-221) million, or earnings per share EUR 0.06 (-0.18) In 2011, EUR 344 (-216) million or earnings per share EUR 0.29 (-0.18) 2011.
5050
Cash flow statement
MEUR IV/2011 IV/2010 2011 2010
Operating profit before depreciations 734 468 3 008 2 271
Non-cash flow items and divesting activities -126 222 -726 124
Financial items and fx gains/losses -86 -192 -376 -641
Taxes -32 -107 -394 -355
Funds from operations (FFO) 490 391 1 512 1 399
Change in working capital -18 -170 101 38
Total net cash from operating activities 472 221 1 613 1 437
Paid capital expenditures -421 -432 -1 285 -1 134
Acquisition of shares -18 -20 -62 -28
Other investing activities -38 -23 522 60
Cash flow before financing activities -5 -254 788 335
5151
Key ratios
MEUR 2011 2010 2009EBITDA 3 008 2 271 2 292Comparable EBITDA 2 374 2 396 2 398Interest-bearing net debt 7 023 6 826 5 969Comparable Net debt/EBITDA 3.0 2.8 2.5
Return on capital employed (%) 14.8 11.6 12.1Return on shareholders' equity (%) 19.7 15.7 16.0
Good liquidity – committed credit lines total EUR 2.7 billion
5252
Outlook
• Key drivers and risks– Wholesale price of electricity
• Demand• Fuels• CO2 emissions prices• Water reservoirs• Nuclear availability
• Nordic markets– Annual electricity demand growth estimated to be approximately 0.5%– Electricity continues to gain share of total energy consumption
• Russia– Profits from Russia build up in pace with the capacity increases– Two new units during 2012 in Nyagan – Fortum targets a positive economic value added after completing the ongoing
investment programme
5353
Outlook
• Annual capex (excluding potential acquisitions)– 2012 around EUR 1.6 to 1.8 billion – 2013 and 2014 around EUR 1.1 to 1.4 billion annually
• Hedging– 2012 approximately 65% hedge ratio at approximately EUR 48/MWh(Q3: 55% at EUR 47/MWh)– 2013 approximately 40% hedge ratio at approximately EUR 46/MWh(Q3: 25% at EUR 46/MWh)
• In Finland, the Government budget for 2012 does not include windfall or uranium taxes
• Increase in nuclear waste costs in 2012 - 2014 amounting to EUR 15 million per annum
54
Realised prices quarterly since 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EUR/MWh
Power's Nordic power price Spot price, SE&FI avg.
2009 onw ards thermal and import from Russia excluded
Hedging improves stability and predictability
2009 onwards new definition
5555
Debt Maturity Profile
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+
Bonds Financial institutions Other long-term debt CPs Other short-term debt
per 31 Dec, 2011 per 31 Dec,
2010Average
Interest
Rate
(incl. swaps
and forwards)
4.4%
3.5%Portion
of floating
/ fixed
debt
47 / 53%
49 / 51%
MEUR
2012 925
2013 637
2014 1,247
2015 1,077
2016 873
2017 273
2018 192
2019 894
2020 74
2021 559
2022+ 1,019
56
FORTUM�Power and heat company�in the Nordic area, Russia, Poland and Baltic Rim�DisclaimerSlide Number 3More than 100,000 shareholdersSlide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Divisions of FortumFortum mid-sized European power generation player; �Global #4 in heatBiggest nuclear and hydro generators in Europe and RussiaFortum's carbon exposure among the lowest in EuropeFortum’s strategic routeFortum in the Nordic electricity value chainFortum's European power and heat productionSlide Number 16Slide Number 17Market coupling milestones�- cross-border power flows optimised by power exchanges Slide Number 19Nordic and Continental markets are integrating – interconnection capacity could double by 2021Nordic water reservoirsNordic year forwardsWholesale price for electricityWholesale prices for electricityFuel and CO2 allowance pricesNordic power generation � – dominated by hydro, but fossil needed Still a highly fragmented Nordic power marketNew capacity needed for increasing demand and retiring capacity replacementsSlide Number 29Overview of Fortum’s nuclear fleetOwnership structures and formal responsibilitiesFortum's nuclear power capacity in NordicsVariety of technologies and agesThird party nuclear liability in case of severe accidentFortum to get 290 MW CO2 free capacity through upgrades in SwedenFortum’s investment programme �– Nordic region, Poland and Baltic countriesSlide Number 37Russia is the World’s 4th largest power marketSlide Number 39Day ahead wholesale market prices� – increase driven by recovering demand and gas priceSlide Number 41Capacity prices for new capacity considerably higher than prices for old capacity pricesSlide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Strong financial positionIncome statementComparable and reported operating profitCash flow statementKey ratiosOutlookOutlookHedging improves stability and predictabilityDebt Maturity ProfileSlide Number 56
FORTUM
Power and heat company
in the Nordic area, Russia, Poland and Baltic Rim
Investor/Analyst material
February 2012
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares.
Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser.
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18 - 29
Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30 - 36
Russia, pages 38 - 45
Data on capacity payments, pages 41 - 42
Fortum’s investment programme, page 45
Financials and outlook, pages 47 – 55
Hedges, pages 53 - 54
Content
More than 100,000 shareholders
Foreign investors 27.5%
Finnish State 50.8%
Other Finnish investors 10.0%
Households 8.2%
Financial and insurance institutions 3.5%
Power and heat company in Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and Baltic Rim
Listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange 1998
Among the most traded shares in Helsinki stock exchange
Market cap ~16 billion euros
31 January 2012
Total ~ 8,630 MEUR
1999
2001
2003
2000
2002
2004
0.18
0.23
0.26
0.31
0.42
0.58
2005
1.12
Dividend per share
EUR
0.13
1998
0.58
0.54
2006
1.26
0.73
0.53
Dividend 2011 EUR 1.00 per share, in total ~EUR 0.9 billion
Dividend policy of 50-60% payout of previous year's results on the average
2007
1.35
0.77
0.58
2008
1.00
Capital returns
72%
103%
78%
58%
1.00
2009
1.00
2010
1.00
2011
68%
68%
50%
*
Strategy
Fortum’s purpose is to create energy that improves life for present and future generations. We provide sustainable solutions that fulfill the needs for low emissions, resource efficiency and energy supply security, and deliver excellent value to our shareholders.
Mission
Leverage the strong
Nordic core
Create solid earnings
growth in Russia
Build platform for
future growth
Competence in CO2-free hydro, nuclear and energy efficient CHP production,
and energy markets competence
Fortum’s Mission and Strategy
*
Strategy builds on our competences and industry beliefs
*
*
Electricity
solutions and
distribution part of
the Nordic core
More attractive growth prospects in power and heat generation
Two strong platforms for growth
Nordic power
wholesale and
heat market
Russian power
and heat
market
Competitiveness key for long term value creation
Sustainable
business models
cannot rely on a
continuous high
level of subsidies
Integrating European energy markets and a gradual decrease in the weight of the Nordic power price
Leverage our
competences in
nuclear, hydro and
CHP
Industrial restructuring
opportunities
Strong focus on delivering value and stable returns to shareholders
*
*
Our geographical presence today
* Distribution business sold Jan 1, 2012
TGC-1 (~25%)
Power generation ~7 TWh
Heat sales ~8 TWh
OAO Fortum
Power generation 17.4 TWh
Heat sales 26.7 TWh
Russia
Poland
Power generation 0.6 TWh
Heat sales 4.3 TWh
Baltic countries
Power generation 0.4 TWh
Heat sales 1.1 TWh
Distribution cust. ~24,000*
Nr 2
Power generation
Electricity
sales
Nr 2
Nr 1
Heat
Distribution
Nr 1
Nordic countries
Power generation 53.1 TWh
Heat sales 17.2 TWh
Distribution customers 1.6 million
Electricity customers 1.2 million
Key figures 2011
Sales EUR 6.2 bn
Operating profit EUR 2.4 bn Personnel 10,800
Great Britain
Power generation 1.2 TWh
Heat sales 2.1 TWh
Divisions of Fortum
Power Division
Fortum’s power generation, physical operation and trading as well as expert services for power producers.
Heat Division
Combined heat and power generation, district heating and cooling
activities and
b- to-b heating solutions.
Electricity Solutions and Distribution Division
Fortum's electricity sales and distribution activities. Two business areas: Distribution and Electricity Sales.
Russia Division
Power and heat generation and sales in Russia. It includes OAO Fortum and Fortum’s slightly over 25% holding in TGC-1.
Business
description
Comparable
operating profit
Net assets
Volume (TWh)
Drivers
EUR 1,201 million
Distr.: EUR 3,589 million
El. sales: EUR 11 million
EUR 3,273 million
EUR 278 million
Distr.: EUR 295 million
El. sales: EUR 27 million
EUR 74 million
Distr.net. 26.1, reg.net. 14.1
El. sales: 14.4
Heat sales 22.6
Power sales: 6.2
Nordic generation 48.1
EUR 6,247 million
EUR 4,191 million
Fuel mix, heat and
power price
Nordic power price,
generation volumes
New capacity, and price for that, power and heat price
Power sales.: 20.2
Heat sales.: 26.7
Distr.: Regulated
El. sales: Sales margin
Fortum mid-sized European power generation player;
Global #4 in heat
* incl. TGC-5, TGC-6, TGC-7, TGC-9, ** incl. TGC-12, TGC-13, *** incl. International Power
Source: Company information, Fortum analyses, 2010 figures pro forma, heat production of Beijing DH not available.
*)
IES
GDF SUEZ
***)
DEI
Irkutskenergo
Iberdrola
RusHydro
Fortum
EnBW
Vattenfall
CEZ
RWE
PGE
SSE
Statkraft
Rosenergoatom
Gazprom
NNEGC Energoat.
Enel
E.ON
EDF
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Inter RAO UES
Largest producers in Europe and Russia, 2010
TWh
Power generation
SUEK
**)
*)
IES
Onexim
Tatenergo
Minsk Energo
Kievenergo
Irkutskenergo
Bashkirenergo
RAO ES East
Inter RAO UES
TGC-2
Fortum
Dong Energy
KDHC, Korea
TGC-14
Lukoil
Gazprom
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
ELCEN, Rom.
Dalkia
Vattenfall
Largest global producers, 2010
TWh
Heat production
DEI
CEZ
Enel
Centrica
EDP
Iberdrola
SSE
EnBW
Fortum
EDF
E.ON
RWE
Gas Natural
Fenosa
PGE
Tauron
GDF SUEZ
Hafslund
Dong Energy
0
20
40
10
30
Vattenfall
Electricity customers in EU, 2010
millions
Customers
Biggest nuclear and hydro generators in Europe and Russia
Figures 2010 pro forma
Total generation
Other
Nuclear
Hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
TWh
EDF
Rosenergoatom
E.ON
NNEGC Energoatom
Enel
RusHydro
Vattenfall
GDF SUEZ
Irkutskenergo
Statkraft
RWE
Iberdrola
Fortum
EnBW
CEZ
Verbund
Krasnoyarskaya HPP
Axpo
Hidroelectrica
EDP
Gazprom
Alpiq
Ukrhydroenergo
EPS, Serbia
Gas Natural Fenosa
E-CO Energi
Norsk Hydro
DEI
Agder Energi
Edison
BKK
Inter RAO UES
SSE
PGE
IES
Fortum's carbon exposure among the lowest in Europe
Source:
PWC & Enerpresse, Novembre 2011
Changement climatique et Électricité, Fortum
Note:
Fortum’s specific emission of the power generation in 2011 in the EU were 88 g/kWh and in total 192 g/kWh (*preliminary 2011 numbers).
Figures for all other companies include only European generation.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
DEI
Drax
RWE
CEZ
SSE
Vattenfall
E.ON
Enel
Dong
EDP
GDF SUEZ Europe
Union Fenosa
Iberdrola
PVO
Fortum total
EDF
Verbund
Fortum EU
Statkraft
Average 337 g/kWh
g CO2/kWh electricity, 2010
2011*
64% of Fortum's total power generation CO2-free
86% of Fortum’s power generation in the EU CO2-free
Close to 100% of the ongoing investment programme
in the EU CO2-free
84
189
Fortum’s strategic route
Stockholm
Energi
Gullspång
Birka Energi
50% Fortum
50% Stockholm
Gullspång
Skandinaviska
Elverk
District heat in Poland 2003 →
Østfold
Shares in Hafslund
Shares in Lenenergo
Starting TGC-1
Divestment of Lenenergo shares
TGC-10
2008
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
1999
2000
2001
1996
1997
1998
IVO
2009
2010
2011
Neste
Länsivoima
→100%
E.ON Finland
Separation of
oil businesses
Birka Energi
50% → 100%
Stora
Kraft
Länsivoima
45% → 65%
Elnova
50% → 100%
Lenenergo shares 1998 →
Divestment of Fingrid shares
Divestment of heat operations outside of Stockholm
Fortum in the Nordic electricity value chain
Private customers,
small businesses
Retail companies
Large customers
Competitive
businesses
Regulated
businesses
Independent transmission
system operator
Independent
distribution companies
Nordic
wholesale
market
Power exchanges and bilateral
Generation
Transmission and system services
Distribution
Fortum's European power and heat production
Nuclear power
45%
Coal 9%
Other 1%
Hydro power 38%
Biomass 2%
European generation 55.3 TWh
(Generation capacity 11,422 MW)
Fortum's European
power generation in 2011
Natural gas 5%
European production 22.0 TWh
(Production capacity 10,625 MW)
Fortum's European
heat production in 2011
Waste 4%
Peat 3%
Heat pumps, electricity 12%
Oil 5%
Biomass fuels
24%
Natural gas
22%
Other 4%
Coal 26%
Dow Jones Sustainability Index World
Fortum is the only Nordic power and heat company listed in the index
SAM Sustainability Yearbook 2010 and 2011
STOXX® Global ESG Leaders indices
oekom
OMX GES Sustainability Finland Index
Storebrand SRI (Fortum, the most responsible electricity company globally in 2006 and 2009)
Carbon Disclosure Project (sector leader in CDLI index in 2011)
*
*
Fortum a forerunner in sustainability
*
*
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18 - 29
Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30 - 36
Russia, pages 38 - 45
Data on capacity payments, pages 41 - 42
Fortum’s investment programme, page 45
Financials and outlook, pages 47 – 55
Hedges, pages 53 - 54
Market coupling milestones
- cross-border power flows optimised by power exchanges
Market coupling between NL, BE and FR since 2006
Germany – Nord Pool Spot coupling started 11/2009
Market coupling for Central Western Europe (DE, FR, BeNeLux) since 11/2010 with a continued coupling mechanism with Nord Pool Spot
NorNed cable (NO-NL) included in January 2011
Poland coupled with Nord Pool Spot since December 2010
UK coupling started trough BritNed cable in April 2011
The TSOs and power exchanges are developing a single
market coupling for the whole western Europe by end-2012
In addition to day-ahead coupling, Nordic-CWE intraday market coupling is due to be realised during 2012 as well
Estonian price area in Nord Pool Spot since April 2010
with full integration of the Baltic States during 2012–2013
EU’s European Target Model for cross-border power
trading
sets 2014 as deadline for an EU-wide market coupling
2006
2010
2009
2012
2010-2013
2011
2012
Current transmission capacity from Nordic area to Continental Europe is ~4000 MW
Theoretical maximum in transmission capacity ~35 TWh per annum
Net export from Nordic area to Continental Europe in 2011 was ~6 TWh
During Nordic dry year 2010 net import was ~8 TWh
Approximately 20 TWh net export fairly easily reachable
700
2100
600
600
350
Countries
Transmission
capacity
MW
From Nordics
To Nordics
Denmark - Germany
2 100
1 550
Sweden - Germany
600
600
Sweden - Poland
600
600
Norway - Netherlands
700
700
Total
4 000
3 450
Nordic and Continental markets are integrating – interconnection capacity could double by 2021
New interconnections could double the capacity to over 8000 MW by 2021
First direct 1000 MW NO-DE link could be built by 2018/2021
EU financial support for 700 MW DK-NL link to connect offshore wind, too
EU support to connect Kriegers Flak offshore wind area to DK&DE; new 400 kV AC cable SE-DK also studied
Jutland – DE capacity to be increased by 500 MW in 2012 and by further 500 MW by 2018
LitPol Link of 1000 MW to connect the Baltic market to Poland by 2015/20. It would open a new transmission route from the Nordic market to the Continent
New internal Nordic grid investments provide for increased available capacity for export to the Continent and Baltics
EU’s European Energy Programme for Recovery cofinancing Estlink 2 and NordBalt
Both merchant and TSO projects for links to the UK by 2018/21; North Seas Countries’ Offshore Grid Initiative launched for supergrid development
European Commission included the Northern Seas Offshore Grid and the Baltic Energy Market Integration Plan as priority electricity corridors in its 2011 Infrastructure Package proposal
Nordic water reservoirs
Source: Nord Pool Spot
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2000
2003
2010
2012
2011
reference level
reservoir content (TWh)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nordic year forwards
Source: NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
Year 15
Year 17
Year 09
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 16
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2012
€/MWh
1 February 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Wholesale price for electricity
Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
Nord Pool System Price
Forwards
EUR/MWh
1 February 2012
Wholesale prices for electricity
Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, EEX, APX-ENDEX, Bloomberg Finance LP, ATS, Fortum
Dutch
German
Nordic
Russian*
1 February 2012
* including capacity tariff estimate.
E.g 9.4 €/MWh for 2010 and 6.8 for 2011.
EUR/MWh
Spot prices
Forward prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Fuel and CO2 allowance prices
Source: ICE
Market prices 1 February 2012; 2012-2013 future quotations
Nordic power generation
– dominated by hydro, but fossil needed
Source: ENTSO-E Memo 2010
*) Normal annual Nordic hydro generation 200 TWh, variation +/- 40 TWh.
25
78
TWh
%
71
196
12
7
20
19
51
3
TWh/a
Total Nordic generation
382 TWh in 2010
Net import in 2010: 18 TWh
Still a highly fragmented Nordic power market
Source: Fortum, company data, shares of the largest actors; pro forma 2010 figures.
30%
Fortum
Vattenfall
Dong
Energy
Others
Statkraft
E.ON
PVO
E
-
CO
Energi
Agder
Energi
Norsk
Hydro
Helsinki
Others
52%
Dong
Energy
Vattenfall
Fortum
E.ON
G
ö
teborg
Helsinki
Hafslund
SEAS
-
NVE
Statkraft
Bixia
Fortum
Vattenfall
Others
E.ON
53%
SEAS
-
NVE
Hafslund
Helsinki
G
ö
teborg
Syd
Energi
Dong
Energy
LNI
Verkko
Power generation
382
TWh
>350 companies
Electricity distribution
15 million customers
~500 companies
Electricity retail
15 million customers
~350 companies
Main Message
Fortum is a leading Nordic energy company.
Nevertheless, with a market share of about 10 per cent for each phase of the energy chain, Fortum is, in fact, a relatively minor actor from a Nordic point of view.
Facts
In the Nordic electricity market, Fortum is responsible for
14% of the electricity generation (in TWh)
11% of the electricity networks (by number of electricity distribution customers)
9% of electricity retail (by number of electricity retail customers)
New capacity needed for increasing demand and retiring capacity replacements
Source: IEA WEO 2011 (New polices scenario)
Growing global energy demand will be increasingly
fulfilled
by electricity in the future
Substantial demand growth in the emerging markets
Retirements and moderate demand growth in the EU
Globally, 5 900 GW of new capacity needed by 2035
1)Total new capacity needed for increasing demand and retiring capacity replacements
464
708
544
938
159
204
217
1605
65
657
552
1784
2001
5896
New capacity,
total (1
Capacity changes, 2011-2035 (GW)
Retiring capacity
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
US
Europe
Russia
China
India
Other
areas
World
total
Growth, 2009-2035
Primary energy demand
Electricity generation
~30%
~ 50%
~170%
~260%
New capacity, except nuclear, will require
over 60 EUR/MWh power price
Other costs
( variation)
CO2 cost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Clean
coal
EUR/MWh
Estimated lifetime average cost in nominal 2014 terms.
Large variations in cost of new hydro and wind due to location and conditions.
1995
-97
-99
-01
-05
-07
-09
-11
-13
-03
-15
-17
Source: Nord Pool spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
EUR/MWh
Futures
1 February 2012
*
Overview of Fortum’s nuclear fleet
Loviisa
Two units, built 1977 and 1981
2 × 488 MW = 976 MW
Fortum’s share: 100 %
Yearly production 8 TWh
Share of Fortum’s Nordic power production: 18 %
Olkiluoto
Two units, built 1978 and 1980 one under construction
880 + 880 MW = 1760 MW
Under construction 1600 MW
Fortum’s share: 27 % (468 MW)
Yearly production 14 TWh
Fortum’s share: 4 TWh
Share of Fortum’s Nordic power production: 9 %
Oskarshamn
Three units, built 1972,1974 and 1985
473 + 638 + 1400 = 2511 MW
Fortum’s share: 43 % (1089 MW)
Yearly production 17 TWh
Fortum’s share: 7 TWh
Share of Fortum’s Nordic power production: 16 %
Forsmark
Three units, built 1980,1981 and 1985
984 + 996 + 1170 = 3150 MW
Fortum’s share: 22 % (699 MW)
Yearly production 25 TWh
Fortum’s share: 5,5 TWh
Share of Fortum’s Nordic power production: 13 %
Ownership structures and formal responsibilities
Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB
Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB
Forsmark
OKG Aktiebolag
OKG Aktiebolag
Oskarshamn
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Olkiluoto
Fortum Power and Heat Oy
Fortum Power and Heat Oy
Loviisa
Operator
Licensee
Site
Loviisa: Fortum is the owner, licensee and operator with all the responsibilities specified in the Nuclear Energy Act, Nuclear Liability Act, and other relevant nuclear legislation
Other units: Fortum is solely an owner with none of the
responsibilities assigned to the licensee in the nuclear
legislation.
Other responsibilities are specified in the Companies Act and the Articles of Association and are mostly financial.
Chart10
EPV Energia
Fortum
Karhu Voima
Kemira
Mankala
Pohjolan Voima
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
6.5
26.6
0.1
1.9
8.1
56.8
Sheet1
Oskarshamn
E.ON54.5
Fortum43.4
Karlstad kommun2.1
Forsmark
Vattenfall66.0
Fortum22.2
E.ON9.9
Skellefteå Kraft2.0
TVO
EPV Energia6.56.66.56.5
Fortum26.62526.625.9
Karhu Voima0.10.10.10.1
Kemira1.9-1.91
Mankala8.18.18.18.1
Pohjolan Voima56.860.256.858.4
Sheet1
ownership
OKG Aktiebolag
Sheet2
Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB
Sheet3
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Chart11
E.ON
Fortum
Karlstad kommun
ownership
OKG Aktiebolag
54.5
43.4
2.1
Sheet1
Oskarshamn
E.ON54.5
Fortum43.4
Karlstad kommun2.1
Forsmark
Vattenfall66.0
Fortum22.2
E.ON9.9
Skellefteå Kraft2.0
TVO
EPV Energia6.56.66.56.5
Fortum26.62526.625.9
Karhu Voima0.10.10.10.1
Kemira1.9-1.91
Mankala8.18.18.18.1
Pohjolan Voima56.860.256.858.4
Sheet1
ownership
OKG Aktiebolag
Sheet2
Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB
Sheet3
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Chart13
Vattenfall
Fortum
E.ON
Skellefteå Kraft
Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB
66
22.1697
9.86
1.966
Sheet1
Oskarshamn
E.ON54.5
Fortum43.4
Karlstad kommun2.1
Forsmark
Vattenfall66.0
Fortum22.2
E.ON9.9
Skellefteå Kraft2.0
TVO
EPV Energia6.56.66.56.5
Fortum26.62526.625.9
Karhu Voima0.10.10.10.1
Kemira1.9-1.91
Mankala8.18.18.18.1
Pohjolan Voima56.860.256.858.4
Sheet1
ownership
OKG Aktiebolag
Sheet2
Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB
Sheet3
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Fortum's nuclear power capacity in Nordics
Finnish units world class in availability
Availability improved in Swedish units
Overview of production and consumption:
www.fortum.com – investors - energy related links
Source: IAEA, NordPool. Rounded numbers.
Situation on 25 January 2012
Olkiluoto
Loviisa
Forsmark
Oskarshamn
*
*
Variety of technologies and ages
PWR = Pressurized Water Reactor
The most common reactor type in the world (e.g. all French units, most US units). Also the Loviisa units are PWRs, but based on Russian design. High pressure prevents water from boiling n the reactor. The steam rotating the turbine is generated in separate steam generators.
BWR = Boiling Water Reactor
Similar to the PWR in many ways, but the steam is generated directly in the reactor. Popular reactor type e.g. in Sweden, the US and Japan.
*Generation refers to technical resemblence based on KSU classification and not to reactor design generations. All reactors are of Generation II except Olkiluoto-3 (EPR) which is of Generation III.
Third party nuclear liability in case of severe accident
*
Sweden
(new, not
in force)
Finland,
temporary
legislation
Current,
Sweden
700 M€
200 M€
360 M€
500 M€
Responsibility of company
(insurance or guarantee)
Unlimited company
responsibility
Convention parties
300 M€
State responsibility
300 M€
500 M€
700 M€
New Paris
convention
700 M€
145 M€
145 M€
Law approved by Parliament in 2010, requires separate decision from Government to come into force.
Has been approved by the Parliament. In force 1.1.2012 onwards.
Current,
Finland
240 M€
145 M€
Requires ratification by 2/3 of member states to come into force. In Finland approved by Parliament in 2005.
Fortum to get 290 MW CO2 free capacity through upgrades in Sweden
Capacity increase and completion timetable based on recent estimate (Nord Pool). At 31.12.2010 Fortum's share of Swedish nuclear capacity was 1,778 MW.
Reactor
OKG 1Completion
-Increase 100% (MW)
0Fortum's capacity increase (MW)Additional generation for Fortum(TWh/a)Fortum's capacity after increase (MW)Fortum's generation after increase (TWh/a)
-205~2
OKG 22009, 201530 + 18095350~3
OKG 32011250110607~5
FKA 1Decision 2013120~25257~2
FKA 2201213030264~2
FKA 3Decision 2013170~35270~2
Total~290~2~1,950*~15
Fortum’s investment programme
– Nordic region, Poland and Baltic countries
Additional electricity capacity around 800 MW
~100% CO2-free
Project
Electricity, MW
Heat, MW
Commissioned
Olkiluoto 3, Finland
400
2014
Swedish nuclear upgrades
290
Refurbishing of hydro power
10-20
annually
Brista, Sweden
20
57
Q4 2013
(waste CHP)
Klaipeda, Lithuania
20
60
Q1 2013
(waste CHP)
Total
~800
~225
Jelgava, Latvia
23
45
Q3 2013
(biofuel CHP)
Järvenpää, Finland
23
63
Q2 2013
(biofuel CHP)
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18 - 29
Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30 - 36
Russia, pages 38 - 45
Data on capacity payments, pages 41 - 42
Fortum’s investment programme, page 45
Financials and outlook, pages 47 – 55
Hedges, pages 53 - 54
Russia is the World’s 4th largest power market
Data 2010 based on gross output.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
South Korea
Germany
US
China
Japan
Russia
India
Canada
France
Nordic
UK
Brazil
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
TWh
OAO Fortum (former TGC-10)
Operates in the heart of Russia’s oil and gas producing region, fleet mainly gas-fired CHP capacity
17 TWh power generation, 27 TWh heat production in 2011; more than Fortum’s Nordic heat sales
Investment programme to add 85%, almost 2,400 MW to power generation capacity
Annual efficiency improvement reached
EUR 100 million in Q2 2011 (compared to 2008 level)
TGC-1
Slightly over 25% of territorial generating company TGC-1 operating in north-west Russia
~6,400 MW electricity production capacity (appr. 50% hydro), ~26 TWh/a electricity, ~30 TWh/a heat
*
Fortum - a major player in Russia
Tyumen
Tobolsk
Moscow
St. Petersburg
Chelyabinsk
Nyagan
OAO Fortum
TGC-1
Day ahead power market prices for Urals
In addition to the power price generators receive a capacity payment.
*
Day ahead wholesale market prices
– increase driven by recovering demand and gas price
2
Key electricity, capacity and gas prices in the OAO Fortum area
III/2009
III/2008
IV/2011
IV/2010
2010
2011
Electricity spot price (market price), Urals hub, RUB/MWh
Average regulated gas price, Urals region, RUB 1000 m3
Average capacity price for CCS ”old capacity”, tRUB/MW/month
Average capacity price for CSA ”new capacity”, tRUB/MW/month
Average capacity price,
tRUB/MW/month
Achieved power price for OAO Fortum, EUR/MWh
858 817 925 835
2,548 2,221 2,548 2,221
174 251 160 191
534 n/a 560 n/a
246 251 209 191
28.9 30.5 29.2 27.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
*
Power market liberalisation – two markets
*
CSA is the intended mechanism for earning a (reasonable) return on invested capital in new capacity
Capacity prices are a big part of a power generator’s income
a typical CHP plant ~35%, CCGT ~55%, of revenues
In the day ahead (spot) market, the price mechanism is a day ahead hourly auction. Supply – demand balance and variable cost (fuel) are the key drivers for the spot price
Financial market for electricity started in June, 2010
Capacity prices
Competitive capacity selection (CCS) and free bilateral agreements (FBA)
A higher, fixed capacity price for new
capacity (CSA* agreements, built after 2007)
Lower capacity price for old capacity, price caps limits the price in some areas
Old capacity intended for households are priced by regulated bilateral agreements (RBA)
Electricity prices
Day ahead (spot) market, financial market, free bilateral agreements (FBA) and regulated bilateral agreements (RBA)
Fully liberalised from 1 Jan 2011 except for volumes intended for households priced by RBA (~10% of volume)
* Capacity supply agreement
Capacity wholesale market
Electricity wholesale market
*
*
Capacity prices for new capacity considerably higher than prices for old capacity prices
Long term rules and price parameters approved
Both “old” and “new” capacity can participate in capacity auctions
Old capacity (pre 2007) and new capacity priced differently
Old capacity is priced by capacity auctions; price cap possibility
New capacity under capacity supply agreements to receive guaranteed payments
The payments for new capacity are based on approved pricing formulas
Vary according to plant size, fuel, geographic location, capital costs, …
Allow the recovery of capital costs and include return on invested capital; the targeted ROCE level 12-14% (with current government benchmark bond yields)
After three years (2014), the regulator will review the earnings from the electricity-only market and can revise the payments, same goes after 6 years.
“Old” capacity prices will depend on auction outcomes, but likely remain relatively low; potentially price caps could limit price
*
*
*
0
Long-term financial target will be dictated by basic economic logic
~EUR 100 million improvement in EBITDA through the efficiency improvement programme
Invested capital
EUR
~2.5 bn
~4 bn
2011
~2014
In 2009, WACC for Russia was ~12%
Assuming, having completed the investment programme, an invested capital of
a
b
a
… and an unchanged cost of capital
b
The annual comparable operating profit in Russia needs to be in excess of ~EUR 500 million in order to beat to cost of capital (WACC) …soon after the completion of the investment programme
*
Efficiency improvement programme 2008-2011
Increasing heat production profitability
Fuel efficiency improvement
Cost savings
New capacity commissioning 2011-2014
Additional capacity 2,388 MW; +85%
Capacity is sold at CSA* contracts with
guaranteed higher price
*
0
Key factors behind the profitability improvement in Russia
* Capacity Supply Agreement
Pace of new capacity increase of Fortum investment programme in Russia
2011 - 638 MW
2012 - 836 MW
2013 - 418 MW
2014 - 496 MW
Total - 2,388 MW
*
*
85% increase in power generation capacity by the end of 2014 through the investment programme
Power generation capacity (MW)
Plant
Fuel type
Existing
Planned
Total
Tyumen CHP-2
Gas
755
755
Tyumen CHP-1
Gas
472
209; 2*248
1177
Tobolsk CHP
Gas
452
213
665
Chelyabinsk CHP-3
Gas
360
216
576
Chelyabinsk CHP-2
Gas, coal
320
320
Argayash CHP
Gas, coal
195
195
Chelyabinsk CHP-1
Gas, coal
149
149
Chelyabinsk GRES
Gas
82
82
Nyagan GRES
Gas
3x418
1,254
Boilers
-
Total
2,785
2,388
5,173
(CHP/Condensing)
(CHP/Condensing)
(Condensing)
(Condensing)
Supply date
2012, 2012, 2013
June/2011
Feb/2011; 2014
Oct/2011
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18 - 29
Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30 - 36
Russia, pages 38 - 45
Data on capacity payments, pages 41 - 42
Fortum’s investment programme, page 45
Financials and outlook, pages 47 – 55
Hedges, pages 53 - 54
*
Strong financial position
Electricity will continue to gain a higher share of the total energy consumption
Annual electricity demand growth approximately 0.5%
Good production portfolio going forward
- Growth in Russia
Hedges create stability
*
*
Income statement
*
Sheet1
MEURQ1-Q3/00IV/2011IV/2010201120102010LTM2007I-III/2007LTMLTM2004
Sales7,7321,6671,9026,1616,2966,2966,396
Expenses-7,109-1,1591,361-4,359-4,463-4,463-4,561
Comparable operating profit6235085411,8021,8331,8331,835
Items affecting comparability71-220600-125-125309
Operating profit5793212,4021,7081,7082,144
Share of profit of associates and jv's192191626293
Financial expenses, net-209-66-57-265-155-155-256
Profit before taxes05322852,2281,6151,6151,981
Income tax expense-83-88-25-366-261-261-303
Net profit for the period-264442601,8621,3541,3541,678
Non-controlling interests232993545499
EPS, basic (EUR)0.390.470.261.991.461.461.78
EPS, diluted (EUR)0.470.261.991.461.461.78
0.69
&A
Page &P
*
Comparable and reported operating profit
IFRS accounting treatment (IAS 39) of derivatives had a positive impact on the reported operating profit. In the fourth quarter EUR 72 (-221) million, or earnings per share EUR 0.06 (-0.18) In 2011, EUR 344 (-216) million or earnings per share EUR 0.29 (-0.18) 2011.
*
New English
MEURComparable operating profitReported operating profitComparable operating profitReported operating profit
IV/2011IV/2010IV/2011IV/20102011201020112010
Power3513364431291,2011,2981,4761,132
Heat96122100124278275380303
Russia351735167487453
Distribution49914193295307478321
Electricity Sales23-6402711346
Other-25-28-34-81-73-66-9-147
Total5085415793211,8021,8332,4021,708
Currency translation effects on comparable operating profit
I/2009I-III/2009
SEKOtherTotalSEKOtherTotal
Power Generation-55-3-58Power Generation-67-3-70
Heat-12-3-15Heat-10-2-12
Distribution-11-1-12Distribution-13-1-14
Markets-10-1Markets-1-1-2
Russia011Russia066
Other101Other011
Total-78-6-84Total-910-91
New Finnish
Liikevoitto 2007Liikevoitto 2006
Vert.kelp.RaportoituEroVert.kelpoinenRaportoituErocompop
Sähköntuotanto00000000
Lämpö00000000
Sähkönsiirto00000000
Markets00000000
Muu00000000
Yhteensä000000000
Liikevoitto I/2008Liikevoitto I/2007
Vert.kelpoinenRaportoituEroVert.kelpoinenRaportoituEro
Sähköntuotanto000000
Lämpö000000
Sähkönsiirto000000
Markets000000
Venäjä0000
Muu000000
Yhteensä000000
Vert.kelp.liikevoittoRaportoitu liikevoittoVert.kelp.liikevoittoRaportoitu liikevoitto
II/2010II/2009II/2010II/2009I-II/2010I-II/2009I-II/2010I-II/2009
Power3513364431291,2011,2981,4761,132
Heat96122100124278275380303
Distribution351735167487453
Sähkönmyynti49914193295307478321
Russia23-6402711346
Muut-25-28-34-81-73-66-9-147
Yhteensä5085415793211,8021,8332,4021,708
I-III/2009
SEKMuutYhteensä
Sähköntuotanto-67-3-70
Lämpö-10-2-12
Sähkönsiirto-13-1-14
Markets-1-1-2
Venäjä066
Muu011
Yhteensä-910-91
English
Operating profit II/2010Operating profit II/2009Operating profit I-II/2010Operating profit I-!!/2009
ComparableReportedComparableReportedComparableReportedComparableReported
Power271280340307695747755739
Heat33352639165194140154
Distribution53535454155166135135
Electricity Sales1023620-3-64-1
Russia-9-9-14-15723-8-9
Other-19-31-12-30-29-49-24-44
Total3393514003759901,0751,002974
Currency translation effects on comparable operating profit
I/2009I-III/2009
SEKOtherTotalSEKOtherTotal
Power Generation-55-3-58Power Generation-67-3-70
Heat-12-3-15Heat-10-2-12
Distribution-11-1-12Distribution-13-1-14
Markets-10-1Markets-1-1-2
Russia011Russia066
Other101Other011
Total-78-6-84Total-910-91
Finnish
Liikevoitto 2007Liikevoitto 2006
Vert.kelp.RaportoituEroVert.kelpoinenRaportoituErocompop
Sähköntuotanto00000000
Lämpö00000000
Sähkönsiirto00000000
Markets00000000
Muu00000000
Yhteensä000000000
Liikevoitto I/2008Liikevoitto I/2007
Vert.kelpoinenRaportoituEroVert.kelpoinenRaportoituEro
Sähköntuotanto000000
Lämpö000000
Sähkönsiirto000000
Markets000000
Venäjä0000
Muu000000
Yhteensä000000
Liikevoitto II/2010Liikevoitto II/2009Liikevoitto I-II/2010Liikevoitto I-II/2009
Vert.kelp.RaportoituVert.kelp.RaportoituVert.kelp.RaportoituVert.kelp.Raportoitu
Power271280340307695747755739
Heat33352639165194140154
Distribution53535454155166135135
Sähkönmyynti1023620-3-64-1
Russia-9-9-14-15723-8-9
Muut-19-31-12-30-29-49-24-44
Yhteensä3393514003759901,0751,002974
I-III/2009
SEKMuutYhteensä
Sähköntuotanto-67-3-70
Lämpö-10-2-12
Sähkönsiirto-13-1-14
Markets-1-1-2
Venäjä066
Muu011
Yhteensä-910-91
Swedish
Liikevoitto 2007Liikevoitto 2006
Vert.kelp.RaportoituEroVert.kelpoinenRaportoituErocompop
Sähköntuotanto00000000
Lämpö00000000
Sähkönsiirto00000000
Markets00000000
Muu00000000
Yhteensä000000000
Liikevoitto I/2008Liikevoitto I/2007
Vert.kelpoinenRaportoituEroVert.kelpoinenRaportoituEro
Sähköntuotanto000000
Lämpö000000
Sähkönsiirto000000
Markets000000
Venäjä0000
Muu000000
Yhteensä000000
Rörelseresultat II/2009Rörelseresultat II/2008Liikevoitto 2008Liikevoitto 2007
JämförbartRapporteratJämförbartRapporteratVert.kelp.RaportoituVert.kelp.Raportoitu
Kraftproduktion271280340307695747755739
Värme33352639165194140154
Distribution53535454155166135135
Markets1023620-3-64-1
Ryssland-9-9-14-15723-8-9
Övrigt-19-31-12-30-29-49-24-44
Summa3393514003759901,0751,002974
*
Cash flow statement
*
Sheet1
MEURIV/2011IV/2010201120102010LTM2007I-III/2007LTMLTM
Operating profit before depreciations7344683,0082,2712,2712,7422,4781,6632,3700
Non-cash flow items and divesting activities-126222-726124124-378-275-268-560
Financial items and fx gains/losses-86-192-376-641-641-482233
Taxes-32-107-394-355-355-469-332-231-5340
Funds from operations (FFO)4903911,5121,3991,3991,4132,1041,1641,7800
Change in working capital-18-1701013838-51-10216150
Total net cash from operating activities4722211,6131,4371,4371,3622,0021,3251,7850
Paid capital expenditures-421-432-1,285-1,134-1,134-1,296-1,018-341-9310
Acquisition of shares-18-20-62-28-28-64-1,243-257-1,2430
Other investing activities-38-235226060537-21258-340
Cash flow before financing activities-5-254788335335539-280985-4230
&A
Page &P
*
Key ratios
Good liquidity – committed credit lines total EUR 2.7 billion
*
Sheet1
MEUR201120102009200820062005
EBITDA3,0082,2712,2922,4781,884
Comparable EBITDA2,3742,3962,3981,1511,271
Interest-bearing net debt7,0236,8265,9696,1794,3453,158
Comparable Net debt/EBITDA3.02.82.516,83915,130
2.31.8
Return on capital employed (%)14.811.612.115.013.413.5
Return on shareholders' equity (%)19.715.716.018.714.413.5
Sheet2
Sheet3
*
Outlook
Key drivers and risks
Wholesale price of electricity
Demand
Fuels
CO2 emissions prices
Water reservoirs
Nuclear availability
Nordic markets
Annual electricity demand growth estimated to be approximately 0.5%
Electricity continues to gain share of total energy consumption
Russia
Profits from Russia build up in pace with the capacity increases
Two new units during 2012 in Nyagan
Fortum targets a positive economic value added after completing the ongoing investment programme
*
*
Outlook
Annual capex (excluding potential acquisitions)
2012 around EUR 1.6 to 1.8 billion
2013 and 2014 around EUR 1.1 to 1.4 billion annually
Hedging
2012 approximately 65% hedge ratio at approximately EUR 48/MWh
(Q3: 55% at EUR 47/MWh)
2013 approximately 40% hedge ratio at approximately EUR 46/MWh
(Q3: 25% at EUR 46/MWh)
In Finland, the Government budget for 2012 does not include windfall or uranium taxes
Increase in nuclear waste costs in 2012 - 2014 amounting
to
EUR 15 million per annum
*
Hedging improves stability and predictability
2009 onwards new definition
*
Debt Maturity Profile
per 31 Dec, 2011 per 31 Dec, 2010
Average Interest Rate (incl. swaps and forwards)4.4%3.5%
Portion of floating / fixed debt 47 / 53% 49 / 51%
MEUR
2012925
2013637
20141,247
20151,077
2016873
2017273
2018192
2019894
202074
2021559
2022+1,019
*
*
Realised prices quarterly since 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
EUR/MWh
Power's Nordic power priceSpot price, SE&FI avg.
2009 onwards thermal and
import from Russia
excluded
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
€/MWh
Load factor (%)2005200620072008200920102011
Planned annual outages days in
2012 (from Jan 1st onwards)
Oskarshamn 180516385687772 24
Oskarshamn 290787686759077 24
Oskarshamn 385958870173175 26
Forsmark 185768181889379 23
Forsmark 294728579643994 39
Forsmark 395928869868185 16
Loviisa 195939486969394 42
Loviisa 295889693958994 23
Olkiluoto 198949794979294 16
Olkiluoto 294979497959590 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017
UnitMWe (net)share [%]share [Mwe]
Commercial
operation
Age
Type /
Generation*
Supplier
Loviisa-1
488100,04881977-05-0934PWR / 1AEE (Atomenergoexport)
Loviisa-2
488100,04881981-01-0530PWR / 1AEE (Atomenergoexport)
Olkiluoto-1
88026,62341979-10-1032BWR / 3Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Olkiluoto-2
88026,62341982-07-1029BWR / 3Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Olkiluoto-3
(1600)25,0(400)2014 (?)PWR / 3Areva / Siemens
Oskarshamn-1
47343,42051972-02-0639BWR / 1Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Oskarshamn-2
63843,42771975-01-0136BWR / 2Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Oskarshamn-3
140043,46071985-08-1526BWR / 4Asea-Atom / Stal-Lav