Evaluating CO2 emissions in inland transport and climate change mitigation

ForFITS A monitoring and assessment tool "For Future Inland Transport Systems"

Pierpaolo Cazzola and Miquel Gangonells - UNECE Transport Division

Taller de capacitación en herramienta de medición de huella de carbono ForFITS Santiago de Chile, 25-28 August 2013

The UNDA project (1/2)

2008 Call for funds by the UNECE Transport Division on the UN Development Account (UNDA)

2009 Project endorsed by the UN General Assembly Duration: 3 years (January 2011 – December 2013) Leading agency: UN ECE (Economic Commission for Europe) Implementing entities: ECA, ECLAC, ESCAP & ESCWA (other UN Regional Commissions)

2010 Project document Major phases and activities of this three-year project defined

Main objective: enhanced cooperation & planning for sustainable transport Main focus: capacity building Target: policy makers and technical experts

Project leveraging on the development of a modelling tool (called ForFITS) meant to be freely available for all UN Member States) capable to assist users in the selection of the most appropriate and effective measures to reduce CO2 emissions in the inland transport sector (including road, rail and inland waterways)

The UNDA project (1/2)

2011 Project launched Tasks and responsibilities of UNECE and other Regional Commissions defined in ToR Development and distribution of a questionnaire to provide inputs for the preparation

of a global status report, containing a review on existing statistical data, policy measures and assessment tools concerning CO2 emissions in transport

2012 International Expert Meeting (IEM) (April) to disseminate information, share experiences, identify possible synergies with other stakeholders

Peer-review workshop to discuss the draft global status report and to give feedback on a draft methodology of the ForFITS tool (April)

Finalisation of the global status report (October) Release of the prototype version of ForFITS (December)

2013 Release of the advanced prototype of ForFITS (2nd quarter) Development of a user manual (also containing methodological information) Finalization of the ForFITS model (Summer) Application in pilots, awareness-raising, capacity-building and training workshops (3rd

and 4th quarter)

ForFITS: model requirements

Key requirements

Allow the estimation/assessment of emissions in transport Allow the evaluation of transport policies for CO2 emission mitigation Be developed as a software tool Be freely available for users (e.g. national and local governments, general public) Be developed between 2011 and 2013 Sectoral model (focused on inland transport only): we do not expect it to target the evaluation of overall effects on the economic growth

Convert information on transport activity into fuel consumption and CO2 emission estimates considering the influence of the demographic and socio-economic context, including policy inputs

ForFITS model: coverage

• Passenger and freight transport services

• Two different areas (e.g. to define the transport systems: urban, non-urban, non-spec.)

• Nine transport modes: non-motorized transport, two wheelers, three wheelers, light road vehicles, medium and heavy road vehicles, rail, navigation (inland, short-sea and deep-sea/martime), air and pipelines

• Different vehicle subsets within each mode (organized in six vehicle classes – A to F) (figures)

• 31 powertrain technologies (e.g. internal combustion engines, hydraulic hybrids, electric hybrids, plug-ins, fuel cell, electric)

• 10 fuel blends, some of which are associated with specific modes and/or powertrains

ForFITS model: demand generation Passenger transport (1/3)

Passenger transport demand (pkm, vkm) and vehicle stock largely determined by relationships linking GDP per capita with vehicle ownership and pkm

Sources: elaboration of national and international databases, building on the information referenced in UNECE, 2012

Motorized personal vehicles ownership Motorized personal vehicles

• Vehicle stock primarily a function of GDP per capita (figure) • Annual vehicle travel (km/year) affected by changes in the

cost of driving (through direct and cross elasticities) • Vehicle load affected by changes of vehicle ownership (lower

ownership associated with higher average loads)

Shifts to/from personal from/to public transport are considered as structural changes having an effect on: • the vehicle stock (vehicle ownership is lower in areas with

high shares of public transport) • the average travel per vehicle (the average travel of personal

vehicles is lower in areas with high shares of public transport)

Vehicle ownership is also assumed to be influenced by environmental culture (behavioural aspect)

ForFITS model: demand generation Passenger transport (2/3)

Source: elaboration of UITP, quoted by IEA, 2008

Public transport (except air) • Pkm share on public transport modes (in total personal and public transport, excluding air)

primarily a function of GDP per capita (figure), also assumed to be influenced by environmental culture (behavioural aspect)

• Pkm affected by changes in the cost of driving (direct & cross elasticities) • Pkm influenced by modal shifts to/from personal from/to public transport • Vkm from pkm and annual travel • Vehicle stock from vkm and loads Modal share of personal vehicles in total personal and public transport

ForFITS model: demand generation Passenger transport (3/3)

Source: elaboration of Schäfer, 2005

Air transport • Pkm share of air transport (in total pkm) pimarily a function of GDP per capita (figure), also

assumed to be influenced by environmental culture (behavioural aspect) • Pkm affected by changes in the cost of driving (direct & cross elasticities) • Vkm from pkm and annual travel • Vehicle stock from vkm and loads

Modal share of air transport in total transport

LDV and 2-3W

GDP per capita

Average

Low

High

TOTAL

LDV and 2-3W in LDV and 2-3W + public

GDP per capita

Average

Low

High

Average

Low

High

Pkm

sh

are

of

air

tran

spo

rt in

to

tal p

km

ForFITS model: demand generation Freight transport (1/2)

Tkm and loads are also subject to the influence of the cost of moving goods (through elasticities)

Source: IEA, 2004

Freight transport activity and GDP Large-freight • Transport activity (tkm) proportional to GDP (figure) • Tkm is the product of tonnes lifted (also proportional

to GDP) and haul length (constant by distance class)

Tonnes lifted by mode are subject to structural changes, driven by: • the trade-related nature of the economy (e.g. free

trade vs. low imports and exports) • the origin/destination of goods (e.g. changes in sourcing and/or destination of exports) • the type of goods transported (e.g. change of importance of the manufacturing industry with vs.

primary material extraction and trade) • the modal competitiveness (e.g. changes due to the construction of new network links)

Vkm from tkm and annual travel Vehicle stock from vkm and loads

ForFITS model: demand generation Freight transport (2/2)

Light road freight vehicle share in total road freight

Light road freight • Light commercial vehicles (<3.5 t) • Typically out of freight transport statistics • Transport activity (tkm) built bottom-up from vehicle

stock, travel and loads

Vehicle stock deduced from: • vehicle stock of large road freight • historical share of light road freight vehicles in total road

freight, function of GDP per capita (figure)

Annual vehicle travel (km/year) affected by changes in the cost of driving (through direct and cross elasticities)

Source: Eurostat

Vehicle load affected by changes of vehicle ownership (lower ownership associated with higher average loads)

ForFITS model: fuel consumption

The fuel consumption is calculated from: • vehicle activity • the structure of the organization of vehicle across services, modes, vehicle classes and

powertrain groups • the energy intensity of each of the vehicles in this structure

ASIF: Activity, Structure, Intensity Fuel consumption

The calculation is based on Laspeyres identities (frequently used for the development and the analysis of energy efficiency indicators)

𝐹 = 𝐹𝑖𝑖

= 𝐴 𝐴𝑖𝐴

𝐹𝑖𝐴𝑖= 𝐴 𝑆𝑖𝐼𝑖

𝑖𝑖

= 𝐹

F total Fuel use A vehicle activity (expressed in vkm) Fi fuel used by vehicles with a given set of characteristics (by service, modes, vehicle class and powertrain) Ai /A = Si sectoral structure (expressed as shares of vkm by service, modes, vehicle class and powertrain) Fi /Ai = Ii energy intensity, i.e. the average fuel consumption per vkm by service, modes, vehicle class and powertrain)

ForFITS model: CO2 emissions

Extended ASIF

The same methodological approach used for the calculation of fuel consumption (ASIF) can be extended to evaluate CO2 emissions

This extension is suitable to the case of where several energy carriers need to be considered

𝐸 = 𝐸𝑖𝑖

= 𝐴 𝐴𝑖𝐴

𝐹𝑖𝐴𝑖

𝐹𝑖𝑗

𝐹𝑖

𝐸𝑖𝑗

𝐹𝑖𝑗= 𝐴 𝑆𝑖𝐼𝑖𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑗

𝑖𝑖

= 𝐸

E emissions Ei emissions due to the the vehicle i Fij fuel (energy carrier) j used in the vehicle i EFij emission factor for the fuel (energy carrier) j used in the vehicle i

ForFITS model: simplified structure

Passenger transport demand generation module

Freight transport demand generation module

Transport activity (pkm, tkm, vkm) and vehicle stock

Vehicles by age and powertrain

Energy consumption

CO2 emissions

Vehicle characteristics (cost), performance) by powertrain

Fuel characteristics (emission factors)

Gross Domestic Product Population (base year and projections)

Passenger transport system characteristics Base year: vehicles, travel and loads Projections: structural information

Policy inputs ASIF

extended ASIF

ASIF

Fuel characteristics (cost)

Freight transport system characteristics Base year: vehicles, travel and loads Projections: structural information

ForFITS model: powertrain selection

Information on average vehicle travel (km/year) is needed to characterize fuel costs • average vehicle travel assumed to decrease with

vehicle age

Multinomial logit: used when the "endogenous powertrain selection" is activated Choice based on the maximization of consumer utility • corresponds to the maximization of savings from the powertrain selection

Requires the characterization of the utility of all options (powertrains of each vehicle class) • Vehicle and fuel prices - including costs, margins and tax rates • Vehicle fuel consumption • Discount rates

• alternative technologies to gasoline-powered positive-ignition powertrains assumed to travel more if their market share is close to zero (figure)

Users are assumed to consider constant fuel prices when taking into account future expenditures (this is justified by the volatility of fuel prices)

Sources: various datasets and publications, including Bodek and Heywood (2008), Eurostat, Howley et al. (2007), Caputo et al. (2008)

Average travel and share of diesel powertrains in selected countries

Even if ForFITS has the capacity to adapt to different levels of data availability, the model does require a substantial amount of data, for: • the characterization of the transport system in the base year (historical inputs) • the definition of the context in which the transport system should evolve (projections) Information on the initial and final times, the characterization of the areas, and the selection of the modelling approach for the powertrain choice (exogenous or endogenous), are also firm needs

Historical inputs • GDP, population • Vehicle stock: number of vehicles by

powertrain, average travel and loads, average fuel consumption

• New vehicle registrations: same detail used for stocks needed for the base year, 5 and 10 years earlier (data in between are taken into account with linear interpolations)

Minimum data requirements (other inputs are defined by default data and can be modified)

Projections • GDP and population • Fuel prices (cost and taxation) • Vehicle shares between two and three wheelers • Pkm shares for different public transport modes

(e.g. due to the construction of urban rail) • Modal shares of light road freight vehicles • Evolution of the network extension for pipelines • With endogenous powertrain selection

(optional), discount rate and powertrain shares

ForFITS model: data requirements (1/3)

Need for coherence for inputs on each AREA, SERVICE, MODE, VEHICLE CLASS and POWERTRAIN

A wide set of default data are included in the ForFITS Excel file

ForFITS model: default data (2/3)

These default data are used to characterizing several parameters of the ForFITS model

They concern the following input categories:

M Data absolutely required Corresponding to the minimum data requirements

A Inputs expected to be introduced by the user The default value in ForFITS is for guidance only

This category includes policy inputs that allow exploring different scenarios

B Input containing technical information (e.g. technological potential and costs by powertrain) These data may be maintained unchanged The defaults are set on the basis of research activities involving literature reviews and statistical analyses (further information on this is provided in the relevant section of the ForFITS manual)

C Inputs on structural characteristics of the model Unless the users acquired significant experience with the model, these inputs shall not be modified: changes to these inputs will result in significant modifications to the model behaviour

Full data requirements

ForFITS model: data requirements (3/3)

TIME PERIOD ANALYZED FUEL CONSUMPTION (PROJECTIONS) VEHICLE CLASSES (EXOGENOUS PROJECTIONS)

Initial and final projection times Economic & demographic data All modes but air, NMT and pipelines Vehicle shares within modes & sub-modes

Base year and final year Over time Fuel consumption characteristics Personal passenger two wheelers A

Population growth M Index of performance A Personal passenger three wheelers A

INITIAL CONDITIONS GDP growth M Fuel consumption characteristics by powertrain Personal passenger LDVs A

Passenger two wheelers B Personal passenger vessels A

Initial transport system TRANSPORT SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS Passenger three wheelers B Public passenger NMT A

Vehicle stock Passenger LDVs B Public passenger two wheelers A

Vehicles Transport system over time Passenger vessels B Public passenger three wheelers A

Number of active vehicles M Passenger Passenger large road B Public passenger LDVs A

Powertrain group shares in each vehicle class M Area characterization M Passenger rail B Public passenger vessels A

Travel Passenger transport system index A Freight two wheelers B Public passenger large road A

Annual travel per vehicle M Environmental culture index A Freight three wheelers B Public passenger rail A

Load Freight Freight LDVs B Air passenger A

Vehicle load M Constant parameters Freight vessels B Medium road freight vehicles A

Fuel consumption Haul length B Freight large road B Heavy road freight vehicles A

Vehicle fuel consumption M Vehicle capacity ratios B Freight rail B Freight two wheelers A

Fuel consumption gap by powertrain group C Load factor ratios B Freight three wheelers A

New vehicle registrations Hauls per vehicle ratios B Air transport Freight LDVs A

Base year Base year Fuel consumption per km A Freight vessels (maritime/deep sea) A

Vehicles Shares of tonnes lifted by good type M Freight rail A

Newly registered vehicles M Shares of tonnes lifted by transport distance Pipelines Freight air A

Powertrain group shares in each vehicle class M Short & medium distance / all A Energy consumption per km A Freight pipelines A

Fuel consumption Short distance / short + medium A

Vehicle fuel consumption M Very large distance / large + very large A TECHNOLOGY CHOICE (PROJECTIONS) OTHER INPUTS (PROJECTIONS)

Fuel consumption gap by powertrain group C Shares of tonnes lifted by transport zone A

Base year-5 Over time Powertrain technology choice switch Pipelines

Vehicles Shares of tonnes lifted by transport zone A Choice switch (endogenous / exogenous) M Distance travelled/network extension M

Newly registered vehicles M Tonnes lifted by haul distance A Discount rate M

Powertrain group shares in each vehicle class M Shares of tonnes lifted by good type A Crew costs

Fuel consumption Shares of tonnes lifted by large-freight sub-mode A A) EXOGENOUS TECHNOLOGY CHOICE INPUTS Crew cost per day (over time) A

Vehicle fuel consumption M

Fuel consumption gap by powertrain group C PRICES AND TAXES (PROJECTIONS) Powertrain technology & ICE fuel: shares DEMAND GENERATION PARAMETERS

Base year-10 Powertrain technology M

Vehicles Fuel prices and taxes ICE fuel M Passenger

Newly registered vehicles M Drivers as fucntions of GDP per capita

Powertrain group shares in each vehicle class M Prices B) ENDOGENOUS TECHNOLOGY CHOICE INPUTS Personal passenger vehicles (PPV) per capita C

Fuel consumption Fuel price (before taxes) M Pkm share on PPV in PPV + public transport C

Vehicle fuel consumption M Taxes Powertrain technology & ICE fuel: availability Pkm share on air mode in total pkm C

Fuel consumption gap by powertrain group C Fuel taxation A Powertrain technology A People per active bike C

ICE fuel A Personal vessels (boats) per capita C

Economic & demographic data Road pricing Vehicle costs by powertrain group A Environmental culture multipliers

Base year Cost of vehicle-km A Personal passenger vehicles (PPV) per capita C

Population M VEHICLE & POWERTRAIN COSTS (PROJECTIONS) Personal passenger LDVS C

GDP M FUEL CHARACTERISTICS (PROJECTIONS) Pkm share on PPV in PPV + public transport C

GDP deflator M All modes but air, NMT and pipelines Pkm share on air mode in total pkm C

Fuel characteristics: CO2 emission factors Vehicle costs by powertrain group People per active bike C

Crew costs Tank-to-wheel [TTW] A Passenger modes A Vehicle travel cost multipliers

Crew cost per day (base year) B Well-to-tank [WTT] A Freight modes A Personal passenger vehicles (PPV) per capita C

Personal passenger LDVS C

Air transport People per active bike C

Air vehicle cost (base year) B Personal vessels (boats) per capita C

Air vehicle cost (over time) B Elasticities as functions of GDP per capita

Annual personal vehicle travel to cost of driving C

MODAL SHARES (EXOGENOUS PROJECTIONS) Pkm on public transport vehicles to cost of driving C

Pkm on air vehicles to cost of driving C

Modal shares Freight

Modal shares between 2- and 3-wheelers M Drivers as fucntions of GDP per capita

Pkm shares in public transport modes M Share of light vehicles in total road freight C

Vehicle shares in light road freight modes M Elasticities

Tkm to the cost of tkm C

Load factors to the cost of tkm C

ForFITS users

Who may be interested in using ForFITS?

• Someone willing to understand the transport system he is concerned about (typically a geographical region), its impacts in terms of energy consumption and CO2 emissions

• Someone having access to a sufficient amount of statistical information • Someone having some degree of specific competence (transport, transport policies,

energy policies, environmental policies) • Someone having sufficient financial means to support his/her ambitions • Someone from…

• a national administration and/ore a local government • an Inter-Governmental Organization • a Non-Governmental Organization • an Academic institution and/or a consulting company • the industry sector (company/corporation, industry association)

Beyond the UNDA project

ForFITS was conceived with the primary objective to evaluate contextually transport activity, energy consumption and CO2 emissions • Local, national, international applications possible • Flexible with respect to data needs

The application of ForFITS can leverage on existing information, increasing the value already generated by their collection

Extensions of ForFITS can help answering a wide range of questions that are relevant for transport-, energy-, environment- and safety-related analyses, including: • estimation of pollutant emissions • interaction between transport networks and vehicle use • evolution of fuel demand (e.g. via the integration of a choice model) • additional vehicle technologies (beyond those already considered) • vehicles and engines with special characterization (e.g. non-road mobile machines) • material and energy demand (e.g. for the manufacture of transport vehicles) • road-safety (e.g. fatalities, injuries and effect of road-safety policies)

ForFITS has the potential to become an important asset for the UN and its Member Countries

The UNECE Transport Division seeking stakeholders interested in the establishment solutions providing opportunities to maintain and further develop the model

Links and contact information

Links

Review on statistics, mitigation polices, and modelling tools http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/themes/2012_-_UNECE_-_Global_Status_Report__October_2012__-_final_version.pdf

International Expert Meeting http://www.unece.org/?id=29350

Model download/UNDA project page http://www.unece.org/trans/theme_forfits.html

User manual, including methodological information http://www.unece.org/trans/forfits_user_manual.html

Contact information

pierpaolo.cazzola@unece.org miquel.gangonells@unece.org

Workshop survey http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/J9VZWMV