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Very reliable methodology for trading the Daily charts using candlestick recognition.
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FOREX ASSASSIN
OUTSIDE DAY
Introduction
This manual explains a very profitable and easy to spot
strategy that anyone can employ on nightly basis.
We have done some testing with this strategy and will be
including the results of those tests later on in the manual.
While this strategy doesn't produce a a tonne of trades the
ones that are triggered are great and you'll find this strategy
will be a great addition to the current strategy(s) you are
using.
In fact we expect that most successful traders will be using
multiple strategies to spread out their overall risk...much the
same way a mutual fund will invest in several stocks. This
way there eggs are not all in one basket.
Lets get started!
Strategy Background
The logic behind this strategy is to identify this chart pattern
then hop on board the breakout that we expect will occur.
The set-up doesn't happen very often, about once a month
or so per pair. But it is definitely worth watching for. It is a
pattern that identifies a strong turn in a short term trend.
Paper Trading: This is important for all strategies
We feel very strongly about using a demo account when
starting out, regardless of the strategy. We will continue to
allocate a section of every manual we produce for this topic,
thats how strongly we believe in it's usefulness to all traders.
Paper trading serves two functions that can't be overlooked.
1. Gain familiarity with the strategy.
2. Aid in developing your personal trading plan.
It only makes sense that there will be mistakes made when
implementing a new strategy, regardless of it's complications.
Trading real money as soon as you read through a manual once
is just pain foolish. “A fool and his money are easily parted”
comes to mind. Take the time to use the demo account for 3-4
weeks to get the strategy down pat...some will need a little
less, some will require a little more, depending on the
individual and the strategy involved. This will allow you to take
the time and ask questions if you have any, before applying
real money to the account.
The next key to using a demo account is to help develop your
own trading plan. Each trader has their own set of
circumstances that will often differ from everyone else including
the creators of the strategy you plan to trade. Often times the
creator of the strategy has designed it to suit his or her specific
needs, risk tolerance, account size etc. Your situation might not
always match. So take the time to paper trade and develop
your trading plan.
Demo Trading Accounts
There are many different brokers who offer demo accounts.
Several of them share the same trading platform, MT4. This is
a very popular and easy to use platform with many added
features for the advanced trader. Some brokers have
developed their own platforms, so try several and see which
one you prefer.
www.ibfx.com (MT4 platform)
www.forex.com (Have their own platform and have access to
MT4 as well through partnerships with other brokers)
www.fxcm.com (Have their own platform and MT4 as an
option)
www.gftforex.com (Have their own trading/charting platform)
There are dozens more places to get demo accounts but these
ones have been around for a while and can be considered
reputable by most standards.
Outside Day Set-up
We start by setting up and using a daily chart. This is where
we will look for the outside day pattern.
We'll define an outside day as;
The high, low range of the candle is outside the range of the
previous candle.
(It could have been a red candlestick with a larger rangethan a green candle.)
EntryOnce the set up has taken place we look to enter into a
trade in the direction of the close of the outside candle.
So if the outside candle is green or an up candle then we
look to go long.
If the outside candle is red or a down candle then we look to
go short.
The actual entry will be based on the outside days high or
low.
If we are looking to go long we will enter the next day when
the price breaks above the outside days high by “X” pips.
If we are looking to go short we will enter the next day
when the price breaks below the outside days low by “X”
pips.
We say “X” pips because in the tests that we did, the
amount of of pips above or below the outside days high/low
will change slightly depending on the pair being traded.
The pictures below show the long and short entries. The
black line represents the entry after the outside day has
completed.
Trade Station TestingWith all testing, past results are no guarantee of future
results. Some people don't believe in back testing, other
swear by it, which ever side of the fence you stand on is
fine, but we wanted to include the test results as we had
access to TS from one of our customers.
In our testing we found that of the 11 pairs we tested all
were profitable, but 5 in particular stood out.
They are;
USD/JPY
USD/CAD
USD/CHF
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
The results over the past two years of testing resulted in
only 83 trades, but they were winners over 60% of the time.
Entry
If the outside day candle is red then we look to go short the
next day. We look to enter below the outside days low by
“X” pips when going long.
If the outside day candle is green then we look to go long
the next day. We look to enter above the outside days high
by “X” pips.
We say “X” pips because each of the five pairs we are
looking to trade will have different values.
USD/JPY = 7 pips above outside day high or 7 pips below
outside day low.
USD/CHF = 9 pips above outside day high or 9 pips below
outside day low.
USD/CAD = 5 pips above outside day high or 5 pips below
outside day low.
EUR/JPY = 5 pips above outside day high or 5 pips below
outside day low.
GBP/JPY = 5 pips above outside day high or 5 pips below
outside day low.
Targets and Stops
Below are the targets for the 5 pairs we will look to trade.
USD/JPY = 105 pip profit target/40 pip stop loss
USD/CHF = 45 pip profit target/50 pip stop loss
USD/CAD = 95 pip profit target/60 pip stop loss
EUR/JPY = 25 pip profit target/60 pip stop loss
GBP/JPY = 55 pip profit target/60 pip stop loss
All open trades are closed on Friday, no trades are held over
the weekend.
Ignore Sunday when looking for the outside day set-up.
* NOTE: The above numbers can be changed/tweaked to suit your own risk tolerance and are included as a guide.
Example #1 & #2May 28/08, June 06/08
In this example we will show two trades that took place on
the USD/CHF. One was a long trade and the other was a
short.
We'll look at the long trade triggered on May 28/08 first.
We can see by the picture below labeled with the #1 shows
the outside day on May 27/08. The green outside day
candlestick means we will be looking to go long.
As mentioned above in the entry section, when trading the
USD/CHF we will get long the next day when the price
reaches 9 pips above the outside days high.
When trading the USD/CHF we look for a target of 45 pips
and risk 50 pips.
As we can see by the picture we reached our profit target
the same day as we entered.
The outside day is circled and we can see the next day the
trade was triggered and went in our favor.
Using the same chart screen shot we can see that a short
trade was triggered a few days later on June 06/08
The outside day is indicated by the #2 above the circled
candlestick. The outside day is a red candlestick which
means we will look to get short the next day once the price
trades below the outside days low by 9 pips.
Again we are looking for a target of 45 pips and are looking
to risk 50 pips.
Looking at the chart we can see the trade worked out in our
favor.
As most of you know we always preach that everyone needs
to create their own personal trading plan. We can see in
both of the trades above that there was more profit to be
had...perhaps some of you might have been trading multiple
lots and would hold on to a portion of your position for
larger gains...we want to make sure that everyone puts
some thought into their trading and their own
situation...how many lots to trade, profit targets etc.
OUTSIDE DAY SUMMARY
We hope you take the time to watch for this strategy. It
might not be the most active strategy meaning it won't
trigger a trade every day, but it's well worth watching for.
It will make a nice addition to your portfolio of strategies.
If you have any questions or have some ideas on how to
improve the strategy, you can always send us an email at.
Reference Guide
Demo Accounts – Be sure to visit the links above and use a
demo account. They are a good way to help you get used to
any new strategy as well as help develop your trading plan.
General Rules
– All trades must be closed before the weekend.
– Sunday's are ignored when looking for the Outside Day.
Targets and Stops
USD/JPY = 105 pip profit target/40 pip stop loss
USD/CHF = 45 pip profit target/50 pip stop loss
USD/CAD = 95 pip profit target/60 pip stop loss
EUR/JPY = 25 pip profit target/60 pip stop loss
GBP/JPY = 55 pip profit target/60 pip stop loss
Entry
USD/JPY = 7 pips above outside day high or 7 pips below
outside day low.
USD/CHF = 9 pips above outside day high or 9 pips below
outside day low.
USD/CAD = 5 pips above outside day high or 5 pips below
outside day low.
EUR/JPY = 5 pips above outside day high or 5 pips below
outside day low.
GBP/JPY = 5 pips above outside day high or 5 pips below
Risk Disclosure Statement and Disclaimer AgreementThe information contained in this manual and website http://www.theforexassassin.com/ is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy/sell stocks, options, futures, forex or any other financial product of any kind.While there has been every care made possible to assure accuracy, we do not give a warranty, expressed or implied to its accuracy and we are not liable for any errors or omissions. Although based on previous trading results, past performance does not guarantee future results. Illustrations are for example only and should not be construed as investment advice or trading method. This manual and the information within is not intended to be distributed to, or used by any person in any country where such distribution is against the law in that country. Different traders will trade the same market differently; as such we cannot be liable for any use or misuse, either directly or indirectly from the information presented within this manual. You are ultimately in control of your own decisions.The content of http://www.theforexassassin.com and manual are copyright and may not be copied or reproduced with expressed written consent of the author.By purchasing this manual or visiting the website you are deemed to have accepted these terms and conditions in full.Trading any market is inherently risky; you should seek professional advice where necessary and only trade with money you can afford to lose.We reserve the right to change and or amend these conditions without notice.U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures TradingCommission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards,but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and bewilling to accept them in order to invest in the futures and optionsmarkets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This isneither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options.No representation is being made that any account will or is likely toachieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology isnot necessarily indicative of future results.CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVENOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NOREPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.