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Forests in a ChangingClimate - Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Andreas FischlinCoordinating Lead Author
Chapter «Ecosystems», WG II, Fourth Assessment ReportIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Systems Ecology, Institute ofIntegrative Biology (IBZ),Environmental Sciences
Contents
1.C
urren
t climatic tren
ds
2.F
utu
re climate ch
ang
e
3.Im
pacts o
n fo
rests
4.A
dap
tation
and
forests
5.V
uln
erabilities
1 Cu
rrent
Clim
ate Ch
ang
eT
rend
s
8.Dec.207
4
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Perio
d °/10a
Ob
served T
emp
eratures
150 0.045±0.012
100 0.074±0.018
50 0.128±0.026
25 0.177±0.052
11 out of 1
2 y
ears (1
995-
2006) a
re w
arm
est e
ver
measure
d!
Ranking 1
2 w
arm
est:
1998,2
005,2
003,2
002,2
004,2
006,
2001,1
997,1
995,1
999,1
990,2
000
After F
igure TS
.6 (IPC
C, 2007.
Technical S
umm
ary WG
I)
8.Dec.207
5
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Sm
oothed anomalies (%
) over continents
Decre
ase
Incre
ase
Ch
ang
es in P
recipitatio
n (1900-2005)
After F
igure 3.14 (Trenberth et al., 2007. IP
CC
WG
I)
2 Fu
ture
Clim
ate Ch
ang
e
8.Dec.207
7
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Scen
ario d
ifferences b
ecom
e mo
rep
ron
ou
nced
as we ad
vance in
time
Figure T
S.28: P
rojected surface temperature changes (IP
CC
, 2007. Technical S
umm
ary WG
I)
8.Dec.207
8
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•R
ain increases at high latitudes (very likely);
•R
ain decreases at low latitudes (likely);
Fu
ture: C
han
ges in
Precip
itation
Figure S
PM
.7: Relative changes in precipitation 2090-2099 vs. 1980-1999 (IP
CC
, 2007. Sum
mary for P
olicy Makers W
GI)
3 Imp
acts on
Fo
rests
8.Dec.207
10
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•2 C
LAs: A
ndreas Fischlin, G
uy F. M
idgley•
8 LAs: Jeff P
rice, Rik Leem
ans, Brij G
opal,C
arol Turley, M
ark Rounsevell, P
aulineD
ube, Juan Tarazona, A
ndrei Velichko
•19 C
As w
ith outstanding contributions fromJacqueline de C
hazal and Rachel W
arren•
2 RE
s•
Hundred of expert review
ers, scientists etc.•
>3200 scienti�c articles review
ed•
915 cited
IPC
C A
ssessmen
t Rep
ort 4 W
GII, C
hap
ter 4
«Eco
systems, th
eirp
rop
erties,g
oo
ds, an
d services»
8.Dec.207
11
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
8.Dec.207
12
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
8.Dec.207
13
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Bo
real forest
8.Dec.207
14
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
8.Dec.207
15
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Mixed
decid
uo
us fo
rest
8.Dec.207
16
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Tem
perate fo
rests
8.Dec.207
17
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Tro
pical rain
forest
8.Dec.207
18
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Tro
pical d
ry forests
8.Dec.207
19
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Ökosystem
eÖ
kosysteme
8.Dec.207
20
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Mo
un
tain F
orests
8.Dec.207
21
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Eco
systems S
ervices
8.Dec.207
22
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Imp
acts on
Su
pp
ortin
g S
ervices
8.Dec.207
23
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
(medium
confidence)
20%-30%
of h
igh
er plan
tsan
d an
imals at h
igh
risk of
extinctio
n
if �T
1.5°C - 2.5°C
over p
resent
Imp
acts on
Bio
diversity
8.Dec.207
24
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Bio
diversity H
otsp
ots (tro
p.
Rain
forests, co
ral reefs)
In biodiversity hotspots (e.g. coral reefs,tropical rain forests) 15-40%
endemics at risk;
half of nature reserves fail
+3°+
3.5
°
8.Dec.207
25
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Su
mm
ary
Imp
acts on
Bio
diversity
From
Figure S
PM
.2(IP
CC
, 2007. Sum
mary for P
olicy Makers by W
orking Group II A
R4 IP
CC
)
Th
e warm
er, the m
ore n
egative th
e imp
acts!
8.Dec.207
26
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Eco
systems S
ervices
8.Dec.207
27
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Imp
acts on
Pro
vision
ing
Services
8.Dec.207
28
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
(medium
confidence)
Fo
restry
Globally, com
mercial tim
ber productivityrises m
odestly with clim
ate change inthe short- to m
edium-term
, with large
regional variability around the globaltrend.
IPC
C, 2007. S
PM
WG
II, p.12
8.Dec.207
29
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Increasing Trends in F
ire FrequenciesS
ection 4.4.5(F
ischlin et al.,2007. IP
CC
WG
II)
8.Dec.207
30
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Forest pests - e.g
. Can
ada
(Dendroctonus ponderosae, C
ol., Scolytidae)
Mountain pine beetle
Section 4.4.5
(Fischlin et al.,
2007. IPC
C W
GII)
8.Dec.207
31
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Su
mm
ary
Imp
acts on
Pro
vision
ing
Services
(Fo
restry)
Th
e warm
er, the m
ore n
egative th
e imp
acts!
8.Dec.207
32
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Eco
systems S
ervices
8.Dec.207
33
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Imp
acts on
Reg
ulatin
g S
ervices
8.Dec.207
34
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
On
the ro
le of terrestrial
ecosystem
s (inclu
din
g fo
rests)
Over the course of this century, net
carbon uptake by terrestrialecosystem
s is likely to peak beforem
id-century and then weaken or
even reverse, thus amplifying
climate change.
(high con�dence)IP
CC
, 2007. SP
M W
GII, p.11
8.Dec.207
35
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Mo
re Carb
on
Sto
red in
Eco
systems
Figure 4.1: E
cosystems addressed - C
stocks, areal extent (Fischlin et al., 2007. IP
CC
WG
II)
8.Dec.207
36
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
So
me D
GV
M R
esults - L
PJ B
1 EC
HA
M5
Figure 4.3 (b): P
rojected appreciable changes (>20% per
spatial unit transformed) in terrestrial ecosystem
s by 2100relative to 2000 (F
ischlin et al., 2007. IPC
C W
GII)
8.Dec.207
37
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
So
me D
GV
M R
esults - L
PJ A
2 Had
CM
3
Figure 4.3 (a): P
rojected appreciable changes (>20% per
spatial unit transformed) in terrestrial ecosystem
s by 2100relative to 2000 (F
ischlin et al., 2007. IPC
C W
GII)
8.Dec.207
38
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Sin
k service at risk
Figure 4.2: S
imulated net carbon exachange betw
een terrestrial ecosystems and atm
osphere(F
ischlin et al., 2007. IPC
C W
GII)
> 2.5
°
+3°
+2°
8.Dec.207
39
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Su
mm
ary
Em
ission
s from
ecosystem
s(in
cl. forests)
From
Figure S
PM
.2(IP
CC
, 2007. Sum
mary for P
olicy Makers by W
orking Group II A
R4 IP
CC
)
Th
e warm
er, the m
ore n
egative th
e imp
acts!
4 Ad
aptatio
nan
d F
orests
8.Dec.207
41
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•E
cosystems� resilience
matters
Som
e adaptation hasbecom
e unavoidableA
daptive adaptation isneededF
oster diversity to enhanceresilience
8.Dec.207
42
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Ad
aptatio
n req
uires an
ticipatio
n o
fclim
ate chan
ge an
d its im
pacts
1.Em
issions scenario2.C
limate m
odel3.D
ownscaling
4.Forest m
odel
8.Dec.207
43
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Ex. su
balp
ine
Fo
rests
Fischlin &
Gyalistras, 1997. G
lobal Ecol. B
iogeogr. - Hafner, 2000.
8.Dec.207
44
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
…an
d tem
perate fo
rests
Fuhrrer, B
eniston, Fischlin, F
rei, Goyette, Jaspte &
, P�ster, 2006. C
lim. C
hange, 79: 79-102
8.Dec.207
45
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•E
cosystems� resilience
matters
Som
e adaptation hasbecom
e unavoidableA
daptive adaptation isneededF
oster diversity to enhanceresilience
8.Dec.207
46
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Desiq
uilib
rium
Recen
t Clim
ate and
Fo
restsC
limate
Theato, G
yalistras, Fukutom
e and Fischlin,, 2007 (in prep.)
8.Dec.207
47
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
So
me C
limate C
han
ge N
ow
Un
avoid
able
IPC
C, 2007
Un
avoid
able W
armin
g:
By 2005: +0.74°C
By 2100: +
0.6°C
Total:+1.34°C
(Min
imu
m!)
IPC
C 2007 (In IP
CC
AR
4 WG
I SP
M)
Figure T
S.32: M
ulti-model m
eans of surface warm
ing (IPC
C, 2007. T
echnical Sum
mary W
GI)
8.Dec.207
48
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•E
cosystems� resilience
matters
Som
e adaptation hasbecom
e unavoidableA
daptive adaptation isneededF
oster diversity to enhanceresilience
8.Dec.207
49
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Interd
epen
den
cies => Un
pred
ictability
8.Dec.207
50
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
19901995
20002005
2010
CO2
Eii(GtC 1 )
5 6 7 8 9 10A
ctual emissions: C
DIA
CA
ctual emissions: E
IA450ppm
stabilisation650ppm
stabilisationA
1FI A
1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
50-yearconstantgrowth ratesto 2050
B1 1.1%,
A1B 1.7%,
A2 1.8%A1FI 2.4%
2006
Observed2000-20063.3%
Recen
t Em
ission
Tren
ds
Emissions (Gt C/yr)
5 Vu
lnerab
ilities
8.Dec.207
52
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Fu
ture R
esilience o
f Eco
systems
The resilience of m
any ecosystems is
likely to be exceeded this century by anunprecedented com
bination of climate
change, associated disturbances (e.g.,�ooding, drought, w
ild�re, insects,ocean acidi�cation), and other globalchange drivers (e.g., land use change,pollution, overexploitation of resources).(high con�dence)
IPC
C, 2007. S
PM
WG
II, p.11
8.Dec.207
53
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Golden toad
(Bufo periglenes)
First E
viden
ce:R
ecent C
limate C
han
ge => E
xtinctio
ns
Go
lden
toad
and 74 other amphibian species
extinct in montane cloud forests
(Pounds et al., 2006; P
armesan, 2006)
Monteverde harlequin frog
(Atelopus
sp.)
8.Dec.207
54
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Eco
system�s resilien
ce exceeded
2-3
°
Co
nflict w
ith A
rticle 2 of UN
FC
CC
:T
he ultimate objective of this
convention .. is .. stabilization ofgreenhouse gas concentrations inthe atm
osphere at a level .. to allo
weco
systems to
adap
t natu
rally…
Figure T
S.6:C
ompendium
of projected risks due to critical climate change im
pacts on ecosystems for different levels of global m
ean annualtem
perature rise IPC
C, 2007. T
echnical Sum
mary W
GII
8.Dec.207
55
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•E
cosystems� resilience
matters
Som
e adaptation hasbecom
e unavoidableA
daptive adaptation isneededF
oster diversity to enhanceresilience
8.Dec.207
56
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
+36%
10002000
Th
anks fo
r you
r attentio
nww
w.ip
cc.ch w
ww
.sysecol.eth
z.chan
dreas.�
schlin
@en
v.ethz.ch
