Forest Sector Modeling State of the Art: Asia - .Forest Sector Modeling State of the Art: Asia Forest

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  • ForestSectorModelingStateoftheArt:Asia

    ForestSectorModelingConferenceinSeattle2008

    HiroyasuOkaandSatoshiTachibanaForestryandForestProductsResearchy

    Institute,Japan

  • Development of Forest SectorDevelopmentofForestSectorModelsinAsia

    JapanChinaRepublicofKoreaOthers

  • JapanFFPRIpublishedabookonforestsectormodelingandoutlookinDec.2006.(inJapanese)M d li i l i l b lf d kModelinginrelationtoglobalforestproductsmarket.Forestproductsdemandmodel.F d lForestresourcesmodel.Forestworkforcemodel.F tl b d ti it d lForestlaborproductivitymodel.Forestmanagementlabordemandmodel.ForestedvillagespopulationmodelForestedvillagespopulationmodel.

  • Development of world forestDevelopmentofworldforestproductsmodelWeareupdatingWorldForestProductsModel(WFPM)toestimatetrendsandprospectsoftheworldforest

    df d k resourcesandforestproductsmarket.WFPMisanintegratedforestsectormodel whichcoversforestresources roundwoodproduction forestresources,roundwoodproduction,manufacturing,internationaltrade,andconsumptionofforestproductsinmajorcountriesandregionsoftheworld.WFPMowesalotonearlierstudiesoftheGTMandGFPM ll h W ldF dM d l GFPMaswellastheWorldFoodModel.

    4

  • F f h M d l (1)FeatureoftheModel(1)

    l l b d lPartialequilibriummodel bywhichonlytheforestandforestproductsmarketaretargeted.Multicommoditymodel bywhichmarketclearingMulticommoditymodel bywhichmarketclearingpricesofmulticommoditythatrelateswitheachotheraredeterminedsimultaneously.Multiregionalworldmodel bywhichtheentireMulti regionalworldmodel bywhichtheentireworldisdividedintoregionsandtradeofallregionsisdeterminedsimultaneously.Nonspatialmodel bywhichdifferencessuchastheNon spatialmodel bywhichdifferencessuchasthetransportationexpensebetweenvariousplacesandpreferenceastradepartnerarenotconsidered.

  • F f h M d l (2)FeatureoftheModel(2)Nettrademodel:TheamountofimportandamountNettrademodel:Theamountofimportandamountofexportarenotcalculatedseparately.Modelwithnonlinearsimultaneousequations( i l i l i i f i lf i )b (mainlyusingelasticityofexponentialfunction)bywhichapproximationsolutionareobtained.Dynamicmodel tosimulatechangeovertimebyusingl d bllaggedvariables.Integratedmodel:Estimatesofsomeparametersaredoneoutsideofthemodel.Policysimulationmodel:Theeffectsofchangeinpolicysuchasreafforestationratesareanalyzed.

  • Modeling of Forest Resources and LogModelingofForestResourcesandLogProductionThestockchangeintheforestbringsthechangeinlogsupply

    potential.Thestockchangeisdeterminedby:S k h F A *MAI( l l d)Stockchange=ForestArea*MAI(natural,planted)

    Initialstock*DisasterdamagerateLogproduction*Volumeimpactfactor

    ( )(Industrialroundwood,Woodfuels)Forthecountrieswithoutannualincrementdata,wetentatively

    assumed;l d (%)l d (%)0Annualdamagerate(%)0Annualdamagerate(%) 55

    1MAI(naturalandprotectiveforests)1MAI(naturalandprotectiveforests)5(m3/ha/yr)5(m3/ha/yr)1.251.25 Impactfactor(industrialroundwood)Impactfactor(industrialroundwood) 55 (m3/m3)(m3/m3)55 p f ( )p f ( ) 55 ( 3 3)( 3 3)00 Impactfactor(Impactfactor(woodfuelswoodfuels))1(m3/m3)1(m3/m3)

  • Resultsofestimationonregionalstockchangerelations:AfricaandAsia

    3 504.00

    Africa (m3/ha/yr)

    4 004.50 5.00

    Asia (m3/ha/yr)

    0 501.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

    Max 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

    MaxMin

    -0.50 0.00 0.50 Min

    -0.50 0.00 0.50 Min

    Annual stock change from 1990 to 2000, estimated MAI, volume of logging impact and damaged volume for major

    8

    volume of logging impact, and damaged volume for major regions of the world.

  • l f l k hResultsofestimationonregionalstockchangerelations:EuropeandRussia

    1.20

    Russia (m3/ha/yr)

    5.00

    6.00

    Europe (ex Russia, m3/ha/yr)

    0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

    Max2.00

    3.00

    4.00

    Max

    0.00 0.20 Min

    0.00

    1.00 Min

    Annual stock change from 1990 to 2000, estimated MAI, l f l i i t d d d l f j

    9

    volume of logging impact, and damaged volume for major regions of the world.

  • l f l k hResultsofestimationonregionalstockchangerelations:Americas

    3.50 4.00

    Latin America (m3/ha/yr)

    1 601.80 2.00

    North America (m3/ha/yr)

    1 001.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

    Max0 600.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60

    Max

    -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 Min

    0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60

    Min

    Annual stock change from 1990 to 2000, estimated MAI,

    10

    g , ,volume of logging impact, and damaged volume for major regions of the world.

  • l f l k hResultsofestimationonregionalstockchangerelations:OceaniaandtheWorld

    0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

    Oceania (m3/ha/yr)

    3.50

    4.00

    World (m3/ha/yr)

    0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

    MaxMin

    2.00

    2.50

    3.00

    MaxMin0.00

    0.00

    0.50

    1.00

    1.50 Min

    Annual stock change from 1990 to 2000, estimated MAI volume of logging impacts and

    -0.50 Annual increment

    Logging impact

    Disaster damage

    Stock change

    11

    estimated MAI, volume of logging impacts, and damaged volume of world average.

  • Discussion on the stock changeDiscussiononthestockchangerelationsbymajorregionsy j g

    IntheNorthAmericaandEuropeexceptRussia,largeproportionofannualincrementisfelledbylogging,whilegrowingstockisincreasing.InAfrica AsiaandinLatinAmerica largervolumeInAfrica,AsiaandinLatinAmerica,largervolumemightbedamagedbydisastersthanbyloggingimpacts,andresultedindecreaseofgrowingstock.p , g g

    12

  • ModelingofDemandThedemandfortheforestproductsexpandbyThedemandfortheforestproductsexpandbyeconomicgrowth.TheamountofindustrialroundwooddemandTheamountofindustrialroundwooddemandtoproduceproductsisdeterminedbytheamountofoutputoftheproduct(exceptfor

    l d ) pulpandpaper).Theamountofsupplyanddemandofthewoodfuelisdeterminedbythechangeinwoodfuelisdeterminedbythechangeinpopulationandtheresourcestock.

  • Sawnwood

    Resource Roundwood,Material Supply

    Plywood

    B d

    World Demandand Supply, World Pricepp y Board

    Pulp & PaperPulp & Paper

    Relationship of Blocks

  • ProductionHazard

    t-1

    Forest StockProductionPotential

    c

    Hazard(Survival Rate)

    Annual Increment FuelwoodProduction t-1 Population

    c cPlantation c

    Planted ForestArea

    Natural ForestArea

    RoundwoodProduction t-1

    c c

    c

    Forest Resource Block to (from)Other Block

  • Roundwood Supplyfor Sawnwood

    Roundwood Roundwood

    Tariff for SawnwoodRelative Priceof Roundwoodfor Sawnwood

    ProductionPotential Roundwood Supply

    for PlywoodRoundwood

    Domestic Price

    World Pricee

    RoundwoodDemand

    RoundwoodProduction

    for Plywood

    Roundwood Supplyfor Board

    Relative Priceof Roundwood

    for Plywood

    Domestic Pricee e

    e

    RoundwoodNet Trade

    for Board

    Roundwood Supplyfor Pulp

    Relative Priceof Roundwood

    for Board

    R l i P i

    e

    Other Ind.RndwdDemand

    Relative Priceof Roundwood

    for PulpGDP

    e e

    Roundwood Supply Block

  • S d SawnwoodSawnwoodTariff World Price

    SawnwoodDomestic Price e

    Roundwood Supplyfor Sawnwood

    SawnwoodProduction

    SawnwoodDemand

    SawnwoodNet Trade

    Sawnwood to RoundwoodI/O coefficient

    GDPec

    Sawnwood Block (same for Plywood and Board Block)

  • PulpTariff

    PulpWorld Price

    PulpD d

    PulpP d ti

    RoundwoodS l f P l

    Tariff

    PulpDomestic Price

    World Price

    Pulp to PaperFraction

    ePulp

    Net Trade

    DemandProductionSupply for Pulpc

    c

    PP

    Pulp to RoundwoodI/O coefficient Paper

    TariffPaperDomestic Price

    PaperWorld Price

    ee

    e

    PaperDemand

    PaperNet Trade

    PaperProduction

    Domestic Price e

    e

    GDPPulp & Paper Block

  • ModelEquations(for Each Year) ORDER ITEM VARIABLE UNIT EQUATION (NOTICE: X_1 X at t-1) PARAMETERPredetermined 1 GDP USD YY = YY_1*(1+#1) #1: GDP growth rateVariables 2 Natural Forest Area ha FN = FN_1-RWSS_1*FI_1*#1 #1: initial coefficient_ _ _

    | 3 Planted Forest Area ha FP = FP_1+#1 #1: Annual Change in Planted Forest Area (ha)

    | 4 Annual Growth of Forest Stock m3/yr RG = FN_1*#1+FP_1*#2 #1: Annual Growth of Natural Forest (m3/ha/yr)#2: Annual Growth of Planted Forest (m3/ha/yr)V

    5 Forest Stock m3 RS = RS_1*#3+(RG-RWMS_1*#1-RWSS_1*#2)#1: Harvest Impact Factor of Fuelwood (ha/m3)#2: Harvest Impact Factor of Industrial Roundwood (ha/m3)#3: Survival Rate (from Hazard)

    6 Area Impact Factor of Natural Forest FI = FI_1*FN/FN_1*RS_1/RS7 PA Ratio of Wood Pulp consumption to Paper production MS = MS_1+#1 #1: Annual Change of the fraction

    #1: Forest Stock Elasticity (=0 0 or 0 5 or 1 0)8 RW Demand for Fuelwood m3 MS = PO*RS^#1*c0 #1: Forest Stock Elasticity (=0.0 or 0.5 or 1.0)PO: Poplulation

    9 RW Demand for Other Industrial Roundwood m3 MM = YY^#1*RS^#2*c0 #1: GDP Elasticity#2: Forest Stock Elasticity (=0.5 or 1.0 or 2.0)

    WHILE (until conversion) { FOR Item(PA,PU,BD,PN,SW,RW) { WHILE ( |NE| >0) {

    | 10 all Trade Price USD PT = PW+MG PW: World Price MG: PW minus PT (fixed value)| 11 all [EXPORTER] Domestic Price USD PD = PT| [IMPORTER] Domestic Price PD = PT*(1+TR) TR: Tarrif RateV 12 RW P d ti f I d t i l R d d SS PD^#1*RS^#2* 0 #1 P i El ti itV 12 RW Production of Industrial Roundwood m3 SS = PD^#1*RS^#2*c0 #1: Price Elasticity

    [JP] (Production of Industrial Roundwood) SS = PK^#1*RS^#2*c0 #2: Forest Stock Elasticity (=0.5 or 1.0 or 2.0)13 SW,PN,BD,PU Industrial Roundwood Allocated to P