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Forest adaptation in Central Europe
Gerald Kapp
Climate Scenarios of IPCC with CO2Concentrations and expected Global Warming
Global Models → Regional Models: Problem: Precipitation and temperature distribution over the seasons
Natural (present potential) Distribution Area of Beech and Spruce
Koch & Stolley (beech) and Schmidt-Vogt (spruce) in Burschel & Huss 1997
Bio-climate Envelop Models based on B1 Scenario
Christian Kölling, AFZ-DerWald 23/2007 (B1 scenario ~ + 1.8° until 2100)
Problems: Based on natural species distribution areas limited by competition,temperature extremes, soil/site factors, pathogens, genetic factors
Tree Species Eco-Diagrams (Middle Europe, 300-700 m)
Ellenberg 1996
Tree Species Vulnerability Maps
1. Overlay present species distribution map with present mean annual temperature map (altitude: 100 m ≅ - 0.5°C)
2. Definition of threshold values (e.g. mean annual temperature) for species risk (= vulnerability levels)
3. Overlay species distribution map with forecasted mean annual temperature map (e.g. A2 scenario of 3.6°C increase by 2100)
4. Map all detected vulnerability areas
Vulnerability of Spruce to Climate Warming (IPCC A2)
„highly unstable“ presently exceeding the threshold
„unstable“ exceeding the threshold until 2050
„prospectively unstable“ exceeding the threshold until 2100
„stable“ not exceeding the threshold until 2100
Michiels, 2009, FVA BW
Dynamic Evaluation of Vulnerability to Warming of Picea abies
Scenario A1FI (Basis 1961-90, T +2.5°C until 2050, +4.5°C until 2100, const. precipitation
7.5-8.55.5-6.5sub-alpine3.0-4.08.5-10.06.5-8.0high mountain4.0-5.5
10.0-11.58.0-9.5mountain5.5-7.011.5-13.09.5-11.0sub-mountain7.0-8.513.0-14.511.0-12.5hill8.5-1014.5-15.512.5-13.5plain10-11
2100 +4.5°C
2050 +2.5°C
2030 +1.5°C
2010 +1.0°C
AltitudeØ T°C
„highly unstable“ presently exceeding the threshold
„unstable“ exceeding the threshold in next 40 years
„prospectively unstable“ exceeding the threshold in 40-90 years
„stable“ not exceeding the threshold 10.5°C in 90 yrs
Michiels, 2009, FVA BW
Michiels, 2009, FVA BW
Vulnerability of Picea abies in present Coniferous and Mixed Forests under +1.5°C Warming until 2030
„highly unstable“ (now)
„unstable“ (next 40 years)
„prospectively unstable“
„stable“ (next 90 years)
Principles of Silvicultural Planning
• Naturalistic Forestry (state & communal)• Stable stands (mixed, vertically structured,
uneven-aged, natural regeneration, mainly native tree species, matched to forest sites „habitats“)
• Stands defined by „Forest Development Types“oriented at the forest site survey & mapping (= basic unit of management and monitoring)
Forest Site Mapping• Maps (1.10.000) based on survey of geography,
vegetation and soil• Complete cover, organized by State Forest
Research Institute• Hierarchy of site groups (greater group,
subgroup, eco-series, site unit)• Site unit = ecological basis of silviculture• Digitalized maps (1:10.000) with tree species
recommendation for each site unit
forest without digital mapoutdated digital site mapsvalid digital site maps
Beech-sessile oak forest on acid, moderately dry loamy southern slopes
Maple-Fir-Ash Forest in fresh ravines and depressions
EU Forest Adaptation Initiatives
• Models for Adaptive Forest Management (MOTIVE): 2009-2013 (4 yrs), Budget 9.0 M€, 20 research organizations of 14 EU countries (DE, NL, FR, CH, AT, GB, DK, FI, SE, ES, PT, RO, CZ, BG). Coordination: BW State Forest Research Institute, Freiburg
The ultimate objective is to provide insights, data andtools to improve policy making and adaptive forest resource management in face of climate change
Regional Scope of MOTIVE
Work Packages and Information Flow
datamethodsBaseline trends and possible futures for the EU
Development of improved models for adaptive forest management
Testing and evaluation management options and risks
Evaluating and selecting good adaptive forest management strategies
Improved decision support in adaptive forest management
Case
studies
EU Forest Adaptation Initiatives
• Management strategies to adapt alpine space forests to climate change risks (MANFRED): 2009-2012. Budget 3.3 M€, 6 research organizations of (DE, FR, IT, AT, SI, CH). Coordination: Forest Research Institute, Freiburg
• Goal: develop adaptation strategies for a sustainable forestry in the alpine area and to test them in pilot areas
Conclusion of Forest Adaptation in Central Europe
Adaptation efforts focus on:
• Stable forests, close to nature, i.e. well matched to the forest site, mixed, vertically structured, uneven-aged forests with natural regeneration;
• Present potential and real distribution maps of most important species;
• Bio-climatic envelops of most important tree species;• Vulnerability maps for most important tree species;• Altering stand mixtures: diminishing the share of tree
species in risk sites in favour of tree species better suited to present or future climate conditions, in view of their ecological requirements.
Carried out by strong forest research institutes